Does the GOP path to victory in 2012 begin with making sure the economy doesn't recover?

Speaking (as we just were) about the disconnect, in every way imaginable, between the people who were right about the big issues that beset us during the Bush regime and the people who were wrong (not just the regimists themselves, but their media support system), at least some of us have had a chance to become familiar with some of the people who are worth listening to. Specifically, in matters of economics, one consolation of this year's economic disasters has been the opportunity to find some go-to guys in this (for most of us) arcane area.

One of the voices I've come to respect most is Ian Welsh, lately of Firedoglake. And since we've already been talking about the decision that appears to have been taken by congressional Republicans to go to war against the new administration, without knowing or caring what it plans to do, just for the sake of trying to bloody it. I wanted to make sure you saw this piece that Ian posted yesterday:

How the Republicans Intend to Win in 2012

by Ian Welsh

The only free market left

What happened last night [i.e., the Senate voting down the auto-industry bridge loans] and how it's being played in the press tells us exactly how the next 4 years are going to be played by Congressional Republicans. They will do everything they can to make sure that economic packages necessary to turn the economy around either don't get passed or get badly compromised.

They will blame the failure of such bills, and of the economy itself, on unions and on not adhering to "free market" principles. Every time they kill a bill, they will say that it's because they have rediscovered their conservative ideological roots and now understand that bailing out big companies with public money is bad, and that the free market needs to be allowed to run.

They will seize the mantle of principle and stick to it, as they are doing with the auto bailout, when they voted against an industry which has given much more money to Republicans than Democrats:

For many conservatives in Congress, the idea of government rescuing any industry is simply unpalatable -- and that trumps any contributions from Detroit.

"The tension for Republicans is that it's an industry that's been staunchly in their camp for many years, but this is legislation calling for billions of dollars of government spending," said Massie Ritsch, spokesman for the Center for Responsive Politics. "It's a conflict between their principles and their longtime supporters."

In 2012, having made sure that the economy has not recovered, they expect to win the Presidency and probably take back the Senate and the House. Since "free market principles" will not, in fact, fix the economy, they will then engage in the only type of big government Keynesian spending stimulus that conservatives are comfortable with—a huge surge in military spending. They'll probably also pick a war with someone, in order to justify it.

Will this plan succeed? A lot is going to depend on the skill of Obama and Senate Democrats. They will either have to finesse Republican opposition, peeling off the votes they need while keeping their own caucus from fragmenting, or they will have to strong arm it, either through public opinion, or through the Presidency's powers and various parliamentary maneuvers.