Friday, July 04, 2008

HUNGRY? MAYBE NOT YET-- BUT MILLIONS ARE AND SOON WE MAY BE TOO

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Bush and Dupont have a concept they want to sell you

The way the political parties pick their/our presidential candidates has been completely perverted because Iowa (and New Hampshire) have grown accustomed to the attention and income that their early and completely unrepresentative caucus and primary bring them. It's a system that should have wound up on the trash heap of history long ago. But our political class is so devoid of even the most basic leadership qualities-- not to mention strength of character-- that it has just festered and helped rot out the system.

And largely because of Iowa's role, almost every pathetic political hack striving for higher office pays obeisance to Iowa's biofuels policy, a policy based on driving up the cost of corn. Today's Guardian reports (as does the NT Times) that political pandering to Iowa's (and others') illogical biofuels aspirations has driving up the cost of food-- worldwide-- by 75%.

The World Bank has been attempting to keep their analysis secret so as not to get into a conflict with the Bush Regime, which has fudged the figures-- as they do with everything (SOP)-- to make it seem that biofuels have caused food prices to rise by a benign 3%, rather than 75%.
Senior development sources believe the report, completed in April, has not been published to avoid embarrassing President George Bush.

..."Political leaders seem intent on suppressing and ignoring the strong evidence that biofuels are a major factor in recent food price rises," said Robert Bailey, policy adviser at Oxfam. "It is imperative that we have the full picture. While politicians concentrate on keeping industry lobbies happy, people in poor countries cannot afford enough to eat."

Rising food prices have pushed 100m people worldwide below the poverty line, estimates the World Bank, and have sparked riots from Bangladesh to Egypt. Government ministers here have described higher food and fuel prices as "the first real economic crisis of globalisation."

President Bush has linked higher food prices to higher demand from India and China, but the leaked World Bank study disputes that: "Rapid income growth in developing countries has not led to large increases in global grain consumption and was not a major factor responsible for the large price increases."

Did your grandma ever tell you to clean your plate because people in China were starving? Mine did and it makes as much sense as Bush's assertion about higher demand in India and China. Both are net exporters of food, not importers. He just knows the Fox TV crowd has let him get away with the assertion that gasoline prices have risen because of demand from China and India-- rather than because of Bush's speculator buddies-- and thought he could make it work for the food crisis too. Of course Bush has food speculators in his circle as well, they have worked diligently to drive up the cost of food.
"Without the increase in biofuels, global wheat and maize stocks would not have declined appreciably and price increases due to other factors would have been moderate," says the report. The basket of food prices examined in the study rose by 140% between 2002 and this February. The report estimates that higher energy and fertilizer prices accounted for an increase of only 15%, while biofuels have been responsible for a 75% jump over that period.

It argues that production of biofuels has distorted food markets in three main ways. First, it has diverted grain away from food for fuel, with over a third of US corn now used to produce ethanol and about half of vegetable oils in the EU going towards the production of biodiesel. Second, farmers have been encouraged to set land aside for biofuel production. Third, it has sparked financial speculation in grains, driving prices up higher.

...The report points out biofuels derived from sugarcane, which Brazil specializes in, have not had such a dramatic impact.

Supporters of biofuels argue that they are a greener alternative to relying on oil and other fossil fuels, but even that claim has been disputed by some experts, who argue that it does not apply to US production of ethanol from plants.

And Iowa grows no sugar cane. And there are no presidential primaries in Brazil.

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6 Comments:

At 5:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Being reared in Iowa and having lived and worked on a pig farm for more years than I care to remember, I just can not get my head around this. The corn grown here is not edible - except by cows and pigs. And people hungry in this world are not hungry because they lack beef and pork. The loop does not connect.

There are so many elements involved in creating and maintaining a poor and hungry world that have far greater impact than Iowa corn.

Could it be the World Bank analysis is a foil? It does not pass the smell test folks.

 
At 9:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh please don't leave out Illinois from the ethanol producing cartels .. I seem to remember an Illinois Senator is running for President.

Next up ...Cellulosic Exploitation
As fossil fuel reserves become depleted, a renewable feed-stock for the chemical industry becomes more significant The obvious renewable resource is cellulose, which is already in embarrassingly large supply and largely wasted.


I scanned through this piece and couldn't come up with exactly what this "embarrassingly large supply" of cellulose comes from. I can think of a few, like corn husks and stalks, but the next most obvious are trees. While this may make old copies of the NYT and LAT valuable, some how I just can't see the Sierra Club signing on if it involves large numbers of trees.

Why does Easter Island come to mind ? ...The population of Easter Island reached its peak at perhaps more than 10,000, far exceeding the capabilities of the small island's ecosystem. Resources became scarce, and the once lush palm forests were destroyed - cleared for agriculture and moving the massive stone Moai. In this regard, Easter Island has become, for many, a metaphor for ecological disaster.

 
At 4:59 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What about the speculators (food speculators in this case, not oil speculators)? Part of the 75% food price increase attributed to biofuels was attributed to the notion that increasing use of biofuels sparked more speculation in those crops (e.g. corn). How much this factor contributed was not stated. If it was a major part, the best solution would be to rein in the speculators, in both food AND oil (don't forget that high energy prices increase food prices too). Otherwise, the impact of biofuels is not as high as they make it out to be.

Speaking of energy prices: if using more ethanol reduces overall gasoline consumption, then the proposed moratorium on biofuels will likely only INCREASE oil (and thus food) prices, speculation aside. Remember, every calorie we eat (at least in the US) requires 10 calories of fossil fuel in its production. Some is natural gas and/or coal, but a lot is petroleum, especially for transport.

It is true that first-generation biofuels are limited in that only so much can be produced without endangering food security (how much I don't know). I do not for a minute doubt that fact (though many people exaggerate it). But oil will not last forever, and second generation (cellulosic) and third generation (algae) biofuels will eventually become commercialized. Let's face it: liquid fuels will be needed for at least 10-20 more years EVEN IF suddenly all vehicles made in 2009 and later were full electric or plug-in hybrids. Not only will there still be existing gasoline and diesel cars/trucks/buses on the road, but the power grid will likely have at least some trouble handling the increased electricity demand at first without building MANY more power plants (in the US at least). Hydrogen is not ready yet. Enter ethanol, biodiesel, and also biobutanol (from a variety of sources) and biogasoline/green crude (from algae). However, first generation biofuels, though VERY far from ideal in many ways, will nonetheless pave the way for the new advanced biofuel infrastrucure. Which in turn will allow a smooth transition to electric should oil production peak in the near future (possible).

Conservation, improved efficiency, and increased public transportation will also be essential given the limits we face. But biofuels are still a step in the right direction as long as they are not assumed to be the ONLY solution (which they never could be).

 
At 5:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

And let's not forget overpopulation either. Unpleasant as it may be as a topic for dinner conversation, it is true.

There are only so many people the earth can handle in the long run. Eventually the population will have to come down to a more sustainable size--we can do it the easy way (i.e. have fewer kids), or the hard way (starvation, disease, and/or resource wars).

This means the US too; if everyone in the world lived like Americans, we would need 6-7 Earths to support them over the long run. For Europeans, it's more like 2-3 Earths. The world as a whole is currently using up 1.3 Earths worth of resources (land, water, soil, oil, etc.). Are First Worlders ready and willing to live like Third Worlders? Doubt it--more like the other way around from the looks of China and India! Even then, there will still be a limit eventually.

"Sustainable growth" you say? That's a contradiction and a half! Here is the appropriate medical term for it: CANCER! And not just population growth; economic growth also cannot continue forever since it requires increasing resource consumption to at least some extent. The "Factor Four" thesis may work somewhat, but by no means forever. We must therefore end our frankly insane addiction to growth of both kinds, not to mention the vast quantities of fossil fuels they both require.

The current food crisis is not due to too little food to go around (yet). There is still enough food to provide all 6.7 billion of us with a 3500-calorie (albeit mostly vegetarian) diet. Nor is it primarily due to biofuels (see previous post). But "Peak Food" was finally reached in 2006; world food production is currently declining. That was the warning bell we all managed to sleep through here in the US. Now the gong is being struck, louder and louder each year. The main reason for the massive increase in food production (and therefore population) in the 20th century was due to the overwhelmingly fossil-fueled Green Revolution (a.k.a. unsustainable agriculture). And let's not forget climate change; the amount of food we would be able to grow in Arctic tundra will be unlikely to offset the crop failures in the rest of the world. But hey, at least we can drill for more oil in Antarctica (it wasn't always so cold, so there might have been dinosaurs there).

 
At 5:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Speculation in both food and oil is also fueled by the falling dollar. Which in turn you can blame on the Federal Reserve, which is actually a PRIVATE company! So out of control, "Feral Reserve" seems a more appropriate name.

 
At 6:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Most people forget that sugarcane (Brazil's main ethanol crop, with an EROEI of 8) can also grow in four US states: Florida, Texas, New Mexico, and of course Hawaii. And essentially all states south of the Mason-Dixon line can grow sugar beets (not as efficient as sugarcane, but much better than corn, which has an EROEI of 1.3). And that is still only first-generation.

 

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