DEMOCRATIC SWEEPS IN SPECIAL ELECTIONS HAVE THE GOP JITTERY

Did he get a boner in his eye or is he just back from a fortune teller?

Before last night's expected win for Andre Carson in Indiana, recent special elections in New York, Florida, and Illinois lead to upset victories for Democrats in Republican districts, districts that, in fact, had been gerrymandered specifically to provide safe red seats. This morning's Congressional Quarterly surveys 4 special elections coming up to fill empty House seats in Louisiana (one to replace Bobby Jindal whose resigned to run for governor and one for Richard Baker who resigned to cash in as a lobbyist), Mississippi (where Roger Wicker resigned so he could be appointed to Trent Lott's seat who had resigned so he could jump over to a lucrative K Street position to skirt an ethics deadline) and California (where moderate Democrat Tom Lantos passed away).

Because of the vacancies and losses, the Republicans only have 198 seats in the 435-member House, a low number, though likely a low number they will be pining for after the expected tsunami of disgust with them and their policies in November. The deep red nature of the 3 open GOP seats is unlikely to present any changes though-- and the Democratic open seat just south of San Francisco isn't about to change hands either. The only race viewed as vaguely competitive is in Louisiana's 6th district, Baker's old Baton Rouge-based seat. There's an April 5th primary runoff for both parties and a May 3rd general election. LA-06 would normally be considered a safe Republican seat-- Kerry only managed 40% of the vote in 2004-- but in the hotly contested March 8 primary 47,600 Democarts showed up to vote, as opposed to a mere 29,900 dispirited, disgruntled Republicans.

We'll see if that's the making of an upset after the run-off primaries between Democratic state Reps Don Cazayoux and Michael Jackson and between the two Republicans, ex-state Rep Woody Jenkins and businesswoman Laurinda Calongne. The RSCC will pour whatever resources they can muster into holding the seat and ending the impression that the GOP is on an unstoppable downhill electoral spiral.

The Republicans should have a much easier time in Louisiana's other open district, to replace Jindal. There's a Republican Party primary runoff on April 5 between state Sen. Steve Scalise and state Rep Tim Burns and the winner of that will face Democrat Gilda Reed, a psychologist whose campaign is viewed as quixotic by political insiders because of the solidly Republican nature of the 80% white, upscale New Orleans-area district where Kerry only managed 28% against Bush. The PVI is R +18 (where the more competetive Baton Rouge seat is "only" R +7).

Northern Mississippi's open seat is another KKK/GOP district where Kerry scored 37% and the PVI is R +10. There are 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats and a Green Party independent running in a single-ballot first round on April 22 and on May 13 there'll be a run-off between the 2 top vote-getters (regardless of party) to determine who the next congressmember will be.

April 18 is the election to fill Tom Lantos' old seat (CA-12) and progressive state Senator Jackie Speier is viewed as a sure thing.