REPUBLICAN RELIGIONISTS HAVE TO CHOOSE BETWEEN THE LESSER OF SOME REALLY MAJOR EVILS

Michael Luo is covering Willard Romney's (AKA- "Mitt") for the New York Times. He must be dizzy keeping up with the flip flops and nauseous from the sygar-coated hypocrisy he's forced to endore every day. I hope he's getting time and a half for a hardship assignment. Tomorrow he reports on how the Republican evangelicals have to sift through all the bullshit to find someone to back in the GOP primary. And the phrase on every set of lips is "lesser of (too many) evils."

Unlike in the 2000 presidential campaign, when George W. Bush was able to overcome early doubts among religious conservatives by speaking the language of personal faith, the three most prominent Republican candidates, Rudolph W. Giuliani, Senator John McCain and Mitt Romney, are continuing to have difficulty winning over this crucial constituency in the Republican base.

The calculus at this point for social conservative voters, who represent more than 60 percent of Republican caucus goers here in Iowa, is replete with tradeoffs over who best adheres to their values and who is ultimately electable next year. Interviews with more than 40 evangelicals recently across Iowa at campaign events, churches and over the telephone found that many feared Mr. Giuliani might win the nomination even though he supported abortion rights. But they are wrestling with whether Mr. Romney’s recent conversion to opposing abortion is genuine, and they wonder how much to trust Mr. McCain, who has harshly criticized the religious right in the past.

“You want to support a candidate that has your values, but you also need to support somebody who has the ability to win,” said Nancy Hedegaard, who volunteers as a bookkeeper at her Lutheran church and attended a house party here for Mr. Romney on Monday. “The question is, ‘Are they going to be the same person?’ ”

And even before it came out that slickly packaged and too apparently sleazy GOP lobbyist Freddy Thompson had traded on his name in Republican circles to lobby the first Bush administration for pro-choice organizations, there have been some Republicans with qualms about his very questionable background. Among the religious right it doesn't sit well that Thompson knocked up one young girl out of wedlock, had a Tennessee shotgun marriage, divorced her and married another gal two and a half decades younger his junior.

You may think all religionist extremists and insane and incapable of clear thinking. But they can think strategically-- like Norm Pawlewski, a 73 year old right wing lobbyist for religionists. In 2000 he was one of the small number of wingnuts who voted for Alan Keyes. But he's learned a lesson and this year he's ruled out Romney for the same reason most normal Americans have-- in Norm's words, "Too many flip-flops."

Mr. Giuliani’s candidacy was similarly a nonstarter with him, he said, because of the former New York City mayor’s support for abortion rights.

“Abortion is still number one with me and every social conservative I know,” Mr. Pawlewski said.

Well, you have to vote for someone in the Republican primary and even if they all suck, someone is going to have to hold back Hillary in November of 2008. "With many Christian conservatives intent on preventing a Democrat from being elected, perhaps the biggest quandary for many is whether electability should be paramount, or whether to stick to a candidate who most shares their faith and worldview. In an informal survey taken by this reporter at an adult Sunday school class of about 30 students at First Assembly of God in Des Moines, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, a former Baptist minister, finished ahead of Mr. Romney, eight to five, with none of the other candidates getting more than one or two votes. But the largest segment of the class, nine students in all, said they remained undecided. 'The Bible says to be as innocent as doves and as sly as serpents,' said John Phillips, 48, a member of the class. 'You have to weigh things with your intellect but put it through the filter of your faith. That’s what I’m trying to do right now.'”

The DWT electoral prediction: after Thompson's star sputters out, Newt Gingrich will jump in with both feet, win the Republican nomination and go down to the worst Republican defeat since Barry Goldwater's-- regardless of who the Democrats nominate-- Further, he will help drag the party 's congressional representation into near oblivion, with Democrats picking up at least half dozen Senate seats and even more House seats than they gained last year.