A LITTLE NUMBERS CRUNCHING IN THE OHIO CONGRESSIONAL RACES-- THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND

I had high hopes for Ohio this year-- and many of them were fulfilled. Sherrod Brown decisively ended the political career of rubber stamp Republican Mike DeWine (2,133,690 to 1,680,999) and Ted Strickland completely pulverized the corrupt and venal election-stealing Blackwell (2,307,420 to 1,406,792). Savior those numbers. Jennifer Brunner is the new Secretary of State which means no more electronic vote rigging in Ohio and our pal Marc Dann, crime buster, is the new Attorney General. I have very high expectations for Marc, especially since he was threatening to arrest Rove if he ever tried subverting democracy in Ohio again. I also expect to see some real investigations into the systemic corruption of the Republican One Party State that Taft, Voinovich, Arshinkoff, Noe, Ney, Blackwell, Montgomery, Petro and the rest of the crooks have been running.

What disappointment I felt came in the congressional races. The only pick-up was in OH-18, where Ney was convicted and awaits sentencing and his hand-picked candidate, Joy Padgett, was trounced by Zach Space. I expected 4 seats to turn over, the other three being Mean Jean Schmidt's, Steve Chabot's and Deborah Pryce's. Close-- even recount territory for Mean Jean and Pryce-- but still a big disappointment. I mean you're not going to find a better candidate than Victoria Wulsin and Mean Jean actually advocated turning part of her district into a nuclear waste dump! Does her family do the vote counting?

I sat down tonight and went through the numbers in the last 3 congressional elections to see if I could see any trends. And, wow, did I ever! The trends for the Republicans have been down, down, down. There are 18 districts. Let's look at them one by one.

OH-01 is represented by Republican Steve Chabot. In 2002 he won with 65% and in 2004 he won with 60%. Tuesday he held on with 53%.

OH-02 is Mean Jean's district. In 2004 Portman was re-elected with 72% of the vote, the highest number for any Republican (and the second highest in the state, Democrat Tim Ryan winning with 77% that year). After he resigned to take a job with the Bush Regime, there was a special election and Mean Jean squeaked by Paul Hackett 59,671 to 55,886, a narrow 3.5% margin, the worst showing for any Repug since 1974. Tuesday Mean Jean took 51% and Victoria Wulsin took 49%. Only 2,323 votes separate them and Vic is asking for a recount.

OH-03 is Mike Turner's district, a low profile rubber stamp who, unlike most of the Republican congressmen in Ohio, hasn't been linked to any serious corruption charges, at least not yet. In 2002 he won with 59% and two years later he was the only Republican to increase his magin of victory, winning with 62%. Tuesday he was back down at 59%, decreasing his margin like every other Republican member of Congress running in Ohio.

OH-04 was Mike Oxley's district and in 2002 he wn it with 68%, went down to 59% in 2004, took a job with BushCo and the Repug who ran on Tuesday, Jim Jordan took 60% of the vote.

OH-05 is represented by Paul Gillmor (R) and he won in 2002 with 67%, same in 2004 and sank to 57% Tuesday in a rematch with his 2004 opponent Robin Weirauch.

OH-06 was Ted Strickland's district. He won in 2002 with 59%. The Repugs couldn't find anyone to oppose him in 2004. This year he ran for governor and Charlie Wilson won with 62%.

OH-07 is another red district and the congressman is David Hobson (another one that hasn't been indicted). He won in 2002 with 68%, went down to 65% in 2004 and continued his slide this year with a 61% victory.

OH-08 is interesting because the congressman is ultra-sleazy House Majority Leader John Boehner. in 2002 he took 71%, slid down to 69% in 2002 and this year managed 64%.

OH-09 is a solid blue district represented by Marcy Kaptur. Notice the difference in the trends. She won in 2002 with 74%, went down to 68% in 2004 and back up to 74% Tuesday.

OH-10 has a similar story. It's Dennis Kucinich's district and he won it in 2002 with 74%, slid down to 60% in 2004 and was back up this week with 66%.

OH-11 is represented by Democrat Stephanie Tubbs Jones and she won with 76% in 2002, ran unopposed in 2004 and was way up to 83%, highest of any representative in the state, this week.

OH-12 is Pat Tiberi's district and here we're getting into the regular Ohio Republican sleaze. His trend line reflects it too: 64% in 2002, 62% in 2004 and 58% Tuesday.

OH-13 is Senator-elect Brown's old dsitrict. He won the seat in 2002 with 69% and was re-elected in 2004 with 67%. This year Democrat Betty Sutton ran and won with 61%.

OH-14 is represented by Steven La Tourette and he's got the same trend as the rest of the Republicans: 72% in 2002, 63% in 2004 and this year 58%.

OH-15 is Deborah Pryce's seat. She's #4 in the GOP House leadership-- and was tarred by her involvement in the Foley/page cover-up. She won with 67% in 2002, sank to 60% in 2004 and is now locked in recount territory 51-49%.

OH-16 is wing nut Ralph Regula's seat and he went from 69% to 67% to 59%.

OH-17 is the opposite, a blue disrict represented by Tim Ryan who won in 2002 with a bare 51%, went up to 77% in 2004 and a stunning 80% Tuesday.

OH-18 is Ney's old district. He was unopposed in 2002, won with 66% in 2004, is headed for priosn this year and his would-be Repug replacement was crushed with only 38%.

The trends are very clear: Ohio Democrats are getting stronger and Ohio Republicans are getting weaker. This will be a safetly blue state in the not too distant future.