Foreign Correspondent: An Open Letter To A Working Class Friend

Pencil drawing of John Lennon by Robbie Robertson

-by Reese Erlich
@ReeseErlich

Robby reflects the views of many older white workers who are critical of the system and blame Democrats and liberals for its breakdown.

I first met Robby Robertson during the 1969 General Electric strike. He was a young, militant worker fighting for a decent contract and social justice. He considered himself a “radical humanitarian.”

We later worked together on the assembly lines at National Can Corporation in San Leandro, near Oakland, fighting management and conservative union leaders. He turned me on to outlaw country musicians like Willie Nelson. We partied and struggled together against the bosses, against racism, and for immigrant rights.

That’s why I was surprised to learn recently that Robby Robertson supports Donald Trump.

In 2016, Robby had soured on Hillary Clinton because of what he considered her corruption and anti-working class policies.

“Trump is my man because I believe he loves this country and wants what he believes is best for it,” Robby tells me. “I have not witnessed that from the left side of the aisle.”

Robby reflects the views of many older white workers who are critical of the system and blame Democrats and liberals for its breakdown. I strongly disagree with his views but respect him, as a man who turned his life around after years of difficulties. (More on that later.)

And so I am writing this open letter to you, Robby, in hopes we can at least have a dialogue, if not a change of heart.

Foreign policy

Like most Trump supporters, you respect the President because you believe he’s carried out his campaign promises. He did what he said he would do, you say. Well, let’s take a closer look.

You say that Trump “operates like a businessman. His foreign policy hasn’t been that harmful. Everyone makes bad decisions. I believe if Hillary had won, the country would have been far worse off.”

First of all, we agree that Hillary Clinton, an unrepentant war hawk, would have made a bad President. As a U.S. Senator, she voted for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. She supported new wars in Libya and Yemen, and vastly expanded the number of U.S. troops fighting overseas.

This week, the Washington Post printed US government documents showing that Obama consistently lied about the Afghan war; so did George W. Bush and now Trump. Those three presidents are responsible for the deaths of more than 2,400 U.S. soldiers and more than 38,000 Afghan civilians. The war has also cost the United States $2 trillion and counting.

While claiming to oppose “endless wars,” Trump has expanded every one of them. This chart tells the story.

Today, the Pentagon has 200,000 troops stationed overseas on nearly 800 military bases. That doesn’t look like bringing the boys home. In fact, the deployment costs taxpayers between $160 billion and $200 billion per year—money that should be going for health care, education, and infrastructure.

Still, Trump would have my support if all these troops were actually protecting the country. But our President has been unusually candid in admitting why soldiers are actually deployed.

For instance, Trump was going to pull the troops out of Syria but then sent them back in to occupy Syria’s oil fields, offering US oil companies the right to pump the oil.

Now Trump is considering sending 14,000 more troops to the Persian Gulf, including Saudi Arabia, which would double the US presence there. The President openly admits he favors the Saudi King because he bought tens of billions of dollars worth of US weapons and because he supplies the West with oil. U.S. troops are being put in harm’s way to protect the profits of companies like GE, where we walked the picket lines.

Trump claims his America First policy has restored US prestige in the world. In fact, it’s the opposite. I’ve reported from ten countries during the Trump era, and even the United States’ closest allies don’t trust Trump. He is seen as reckless and unpredictable, and as a bully for breaking international agreements and imposing tariffs.

Trump threatened to bring “fire and fury” down on North Korea, only to back down when challenged. When he accused Iran of attacking oil tankers in the Mediterranean and bombing Saudi oil facilities, he took no military action. When Turkey invaded northern Syria and attacked the Kurdish militia allied with the Pentagon, he allowed Turkey to proceed.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m actually glad Trump hasn’t attacked Iran, or Mexico for that matter. In fact, I’d like to see well-planned, rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops as part of a major revamp of US foreign policy. But Trump is not withdrawing troops, and his empty threats erode U.S. credibility.

Trump hasn't ended the endless wars because he's not willing to take the hard steps needed to end them.

Good economy?

Okay, you say, but at least Trump has delivered on the economy.

“People hate Trump because he stepped outside the box,” you tell me. “He doesn't play politics; he’s a businessman.”

The economy has grown about 2.5 percent per year under Trump and unemployment has hit a five-decade low of 3.5 percent. People, including students and homemakers, are coming back into the workforce because there are more jobs.

And yes, Robby, if a President Hillary Clinton had the same economic numbers, the Democrats would be trumpeting her great successes. But I would point out that for Clinton, as for Trump, this economic expansion is a house of cards that hasn’t helped workers anywhere near as much as claimed. The good-paying manufacturing jobs have not returned in significant numbers.

Trump holds rallies and media events at factories, where he has supposedly stopped management from moving overseas and saved hundreds of jobs. But months later those factories are still closing, moving overseas, or laying off workers.

The same thing happens when Trump claims that his tariffs have boosted American jobs. His policies temporarily benefit some industries while badly hurting others. When Trump imposed tariffs on foreign steel manufacturers, the protected U.S. companies raised their prices, which hurt manufacturers who buy steel. Some of those companies then laid off workers to save money while passing on some of the price increases to customers.

Jobs in primary metal manufacturing have gone down by 7,900 since January, including job losses in the supposedly protected aluminum industry.

For the first time since the 1920s, the United States has started trade wars with dozens of countries, including Canada, Britain, and France. Those countries retaliate with their own tariffs and businesses get worried. Worried executives don’t invest, and that will help bring on recession.

“Trump’s tariffs have caused business investment to fall for two consecutive calendar quarters, which usually indicates that a recession will start soon,” David Kotz tells me. He’s an old friend of yours and mine, Robby, and an economics professor emeritus at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst.

I can’t predict when, but a big recession is coming, and Trump’s policies are helping bring it on.

Still friends?

Robby, I don’t know if any of my arguments make sense to you, let alone have changed your mind. While we disagree, I respect your views. I know you went through some hard times in the 1980s. You wrestled with the demons of drug and alcohol addiction, found Christianity and have remained clean and sober for 25 years. I’m an atheist, but I respect any religion that helps people that profoundly.

You’re a talented artist and I still treasure the drawing you gave me of Willie Nelson. I look forward to having coffee  with you soon.

Pencil drawing of Kris Kristofferson by Robbie Robertson. Outlaw country singers Kristofferson and Willie Nelson have strongly criticized Trump.

By the way, Robby, you might want to take a look at Willie Nelson’s outspoken opposition to Trump, particularly how he criticized the imprisonment of Central American children at the US- Mexico border.

“What’s going on at our southern border is outrageous,” Willie said. “Christians everywhere should be up in arms.”

Por Favor Vote Hoy-- PorTodo Nuestro Bien

This isn't a new poll but it could be the numbers we see on our TV screens tonight. Say a prayer. A result like that in Texas today is going to be dependent on, among other things, Latino turnout. Virtually all polling models assume Latinos will not turn out in large numbers. If that changes today, say goodbye to Ted Cruz and... HELLO BETO! Nearly 39% of Texans are Latino. BETO will win if they vote today in larger numbers than has been usual. AND, a big Latino turnout in Texas today could also help in more than a few districts with big Hispanic populations-- here's who has the most to gain:

• TX-02- 29.6% Todd Litton
• TX-07- 31.5% Lizzie Fletcher
• TX-10- 25.9% Mike Siegel
• TX-21- 27.7% Joseph Kopser
• TX-23- 70.8% Gina Jones
• TX-27- 50.8% Eric Holguin
• TX-32- 28.3% Colin Allred

California is another state with a huge Hispanic population-- like Texas, around 39%-- where an oversized Latino turnout today could be determinative, maybe even electing a progressive senator, Kevin de León, instead of reelecting the conservative Dianne Feinstein, with a shameful anti-immigrant history unworthy of our state. In California congressional races, a big Latino turnout will make all the difference in 7 close, key races:

• CA-10- 40.0% Josh Harder
• CA-21- 72.1% TJ Cox
• CA-22- 45.9% Andrew Janz (Devin Nunes' district)
• CA-25- 37.9% Katie Hill
• CA-39- 34.6% Gil Cisneros
• CA-49- 25.7% Mike Levin
• CA-50- 29.7% Ammar Campa-Najjar

And then there are the key Senate races in Arizona (30.1% Latino) and Nevada (27.1% Latino) which have both tightened up in the last month.



So... has Trump been enough of a determinant to rouse Latino voters up in big numbers tomorrow? All cycle, the answer has been a disappointing "NO!" But that seems to have changed in the last few weeks. Yesterday, Chris Kahn and Dan Trotta, reporting for Reuters, wrote that a new IPSOS tracking poll shows a 
marked increase in Latino enthusiasm for voting this week.

Hispanics are more interested in voting this year than in the last U.S. congressional midterm elections in 2014 and their enthusiasm outpaces that of all U.S. adults, according to a Reuters/Ipsos national tracking poll released on Sunday.

The poll also found likely Hispanic voters nearly twice as inclined to support Democrats for the House of Representatives as Republicans in Tuesday's elections.

Voter registration groups are using Republican President Donald Trump's nationalist, anti-immigrant rhetoric as an opportunity to drive up Latino enthusiasm. In an illustration of their passion, one group that is part of an alliance that has reached out to more than 1 million potential voters in Arizona took its name from the Spanish word for "fight."

...Latinos could play a crucial role in several races, from tight Senate battles in Arizona and Texas to Florida's close Senate and governor's races. In California, the flourishing Latino population has helped put in play some Republican-controlled House districts Democrats hope to flip.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll, taken Sept. 1 to Oct. 29, found that 36 percent of Hispanic voters said they were "certain" to vote, up from 27 percent in 2014. That increase is nearly double the five percentage point rise in voter enthusiasm among all Americans over the same period, the poll showed.

Enthusiasm appears especially high among Hispanic Democrats.

Forty-two percent of Hispanic Democrats said they were "certain" to vote, up from 29 percent in 2014. Among likely Hispanic voters, 60 percent said they will vote for a Democratic candidate for the House, and 32 percent would back a Republican.

Hispanics are a politically diverse group, with 55 percent of likely voters identifying as Democrats, 31 percent as Republicans and 12 percent as independent, the poll showed.

Just over half, 53 percent, of likely Hispanic voters said they were "very motivated" to pick a candidate for Congress who opposes Trump, compared with 43 percent of all likely voters, 75 percent of likely Democratic voters and 9 percent of likely Republican voters.

...America's 29 million Latinos account for nearly 13 percent of eligible voters this year, but their turnout rate has declined since 2006, according to the Pew Research Center. Only 27 percent of eligible Latinos voted in the last midterm elections in 2014, and only 16 percent of those aged 18 to 35, Pew said.

New Campaign Videos

Campaign videos don't have to be expensive to be effective. I asked Mike Siegel what this one cost him. I caught up with him just as he was headed out the door to meet Beto for a rally in Elgin. He told me the video was part of a package that includes 12 clips and some mailers, but that if you break down the package, you could say the video cost around $1,500. "This is what a resistance campaign in 2018 looks like," he told me. "Focused messages targeted at specific segments of voters. Our goal is to let the Texas 10th know how the current representative has betrayed their interests, and how specifically I will fight for them."

Nate McMurray is running against indicted Republican crook (and Trumpist) Chris Collins in the part of western New York between suburban Buffalo and suburban Rochester. Nate's campaign is very grassroots-oriented and very DIY--  and this pretty effective video cost them... exactly nothing (other than a donated ancient TV from somebody's basement).



It sure would be great if they had the money to put it up on the air in the two relatively inexpensive media markets in the district. If you'd like to help Nate-- and any of the other congressional candidates on this page-- they all happen to be Medicare-For-All supporters, so you can find them on this page and contribute to their campaigns.



This brand new Randy Bryce ad (above) starts running on TV this week. With Bryan Steil and his allies pouring over $2 million into a vicious personal smear campaign against Randy, he's sticking to the issues that southeast Wisconsin voters care about and hitting back by showing his opponent's record in the private sector.

Bryce's campaign manager, David Keith, thinks this video is going to have a strong impact on voters. "The standard Beltway Democratic formula is to ignore Trump his (and Ryan’s) horrid policies," he told us, "and just about anything else that motivates working class folks. The belief is that if you present yourself milk-toast on steroids, you win in this 'wave' environment. That may be so in Democratic seats currently held by Republicans, but it’s not so in swing seats. In Wisconsin-1 we are doing it much, much differently. We are drawing a bright blue line between Trump and the decent people of southeast Wisconsin. Those that stand with Trump, good for them. We believe southeast Wisconsin has a good bullshit meter and a whole lot more voters will stand with the true working class candidate, Randy Bryce. Let’s not forget what is on every voters mind in a mid term: Trump, who in this case, is a buffoon who represents neither working class values nor aspirations, but rather those of Wall Street, K street and... the Kremlin."



Andrew Gillum is on the top of the ticket in Florida. Democrats are counting on him to win the governor's seat, save Bill Nelson's Senate seat and drag a bunch of sub-par DCCC recruits over the finishing line and into Congress. This ad is exactly the kind of thing that could help. Andrew makes the crucial connection between the state's environmental catastrophe and special interest money that has turned Florida politics into a sewer. In a non-wave cycle an ad like this might make voters think not just about Ron DeSantis, Andrew's crackpot Trumpist opponent (currently hiding under his bed and refusing to come out), but also corrupt Democraps like Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Alcee Hastings, who take as much money from the same shady special interests that help Republicans.

It's an extraordinarily good ad and I sure hope Andrew's campaign gets it out widely in this state, which is one of the most expensive in the country for TV. You can help Andrew do that here.



Brave New Film's produced two high quality videos for two high quality progressive candidates, Kara Eastman (above) and J.D. Scholten (below). The top guy at the studio, Robert Greenwald, told me today that they "decided to get involved directly in the Kara Eastman and J.D. Scholten races because it seemed that:

1- They were  good progressive candidates who would benefit from video
2- What we do well at Brave New Films is tell stories, and both campaigns embraced and understood value of story telling. The narratives are about character... rather then just 30 second lists of facts or information
3- Both campaigns seem committed to multiple and wide use of the videos.

And this last one... well, I'll call this a free campaign song for Blue America, 2022. Listen closely, DCCC assholes:

And if it's a bunch of clowns you voted in
Election Day is comin' 'round again

Delete and Fast Forward, My Friend

Can you picture me spinning country music at a cowboy bar? Interviewing dozens of country music stars for Country Music Magazine? How about being on the Board of Directors of the Country Music Association? Yeah, and I was the west coast editor of Country Music Magazine too. Don't worry, I was never into the Nashville sound, just Outlaw music, the punk rock of country. That's how I met Willie... around 40 years ago. He had recently released Red Headed Stranger which I wore out on the turntables of the Cinch and wrote about as often as possible and for as many outlets as possible. Willie, Waylon, Tompall, Jessi, Kris, Tanya... as well as the Clash, the Ramones, the Pistols, X, the Au Pairs, Generation X... that was what I was listening to-- as well as the bands I was releasing on my own label-- the Nuns, the Mutants, the Units, the Offs, the Red Rockers. Don't stress; it made sense to me. As much as this Willie song covered by the Pet Shop Boys made sense to anyone besides me:



So, sure, I was happy, happy when I heard the other day that Willie is doing a concert in Austin with Beto. All my friends want to fly down to Austin. And you know they're going to play onstage together! But not every Willie fan is also a Beto fan. Some are pissed off. Do 85 year old performers care if some Trump-nuts get mad at them? I have a feeling the answer is "nah."

I'm the one smiling and dressed as the country music guy

Suzy Byrne for Yahoo thinks the pissed off fans should turn in their stan cards.

Houston, Texas, local TV station KTRK first pointed out that “dozens” of people criticized Nelson in a Facebook post he shared on Wednesday announcing the Sept. 29 rally in Austin. The 49-time Grammy nominee-- and eight-time winner-- was told to “stay out of politics” and the like. “If that’s true, I’m done after 45 years with the Red Headed Stranger. Willie, that smoke has finally got you,” wrote someone named Ralph Brown. Kathy Lamb Manley commented that she “really thought that Willie had more sense than this.” Those are the printable ones.

In the press release for the concert-- touted as “the first public concert Nelson has held for a political candidate”-- Nelson was quoted saying, “My wife Annie and I have met and spoken with Beto and we share his concern for the direction things are headed. Beto embodies what is special about Texas, an energy and an integrity that is completely genuine.”

What’s puzzling about the Facebook comments is that Nelson has been a politically outspoken public figure for decades. The marijuana advocate-- who’s shown love for Barack Obama, both Hillary and Bill Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and John Kerry-- has appeared at multiple Democratic National Conventions, dating back to 1980, when he addressed delegates in Madison Square Garden rocking a red bandana and his trademark braids. He performed at the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston. Since then, he has supported state campaigns, including Ohio Democrat Dennis Kucinich’s run for Congress. He performed at a fundraiser for Kucinich in 2012.

The “On the Road Again” singer, 85, has smoked pot on the roof of the White House-- when Democrat Jimmy Carter was president-- and contemplated running for office himself, but “then I sobered up,” he told Rolling Stone last year. “I think you can do more with music than you can with arguments and politics. I think a song will reach more people than any other thing.”

And he’s written songs about President Trump, such as “Delete and Fast-Forward,” which he released last year. Nelson, who helped start Farm Aid and has raised more than $53 million for family farmers, has said that he “knew [Trump] back when he owned some casinos, and I worked for him. He always paid me. I had no problems at all. However, he added that as president, Trump “stepped into a different world. … It’s easy when you can just go bankrupt anytime you want to and say, ‘I’ll check you later.’ But that’s hard to do when you’re president of the United States.”

In June, Nelson invited Trump to come to Texas with him to visit a border detention center, tweeting at him through an account called Happy Blue Year 2018, which belongs to Nelson’s wife, Annie. He told Rolling Stone that the policy enforcement at the U.S.-Mexico border was “outrageous” and that “Christians everywhere should be up in arms. What happened to ‘Bring us your tired and weak and we will make them strong?’ This is still the promised land.”

This won’t be the first time Nelson publicly embraced O’Rourke. At his annual Fourth of July Picnic, Nelson had the candidate join him onstage to perform. So his upcoming show just reaffirms support he’s been giving for months. And if his riled-up Facebook followers were paying attention, they wouldn’t be as shocked as they seem to be. Luckily, there are a lot of other fans more versed in the music legend, like Jeff Roddam, who wrote, “On what planet does anyone think Willie would have conservative leanings? How delusional can people be?” and David Lintner, whose post noted, “I think it’s hilarious that this comes as a surprise to some of you spurned ‘fans.'” Hilarious is one word for it.

Maybe they can make it more bipartisan-- and more fun in a participatory way-- by inviting Ted Cruz to open the show by performing his oh, so, so cool mime act... barefoot of course. And by the way, if you'd like to see Beto replace Cruz in the Senate... click on the Turning Texas Blue thermometer just above and contribute what you can.

What Would You Do If One Of Your Children Decided To Become A Lobbyist?

The NRCC, the House Republicans' campaign arm, raised $10.5 million in February, a record-- and more than double what they took in last February. (In January the NRCC took in $10 million, also a record and beat a DCCC many Democrats are growing increasingly sick of for it's venality, incompetence and lame leadership. In January the DCCC took in $7.8 million. But one group of donors who still loves the Democrats-- especially the kind of conservative shills who run the DCCC-- are lobbyists. They're always happy to take out their checkbooks for corrupt conservative Democrats-- as well as for Republicans, of course.

Lobbyists give enormous sums to congressional candidates, particularly incumbents on powerful committees positioned to do their clients the most good. The relationship between lobbyists and politicians is the very definition of bribery-- but not the legal definition-- since those same politicians get to define the legal definition in a way that carefully writes themselves and their own corrupt practices out of the scenario. And this is a case where the Democrats aren't any less guilty than the Republicans. They should all be in prison. In 2016 lobbyist bribes to congressional candidates came to an astounding $27,976,646-- $15,200,963 for corrupt Republicans and $12,722,093 for corrupt Democrats. Since 1990 lobbyists have forked over $253,964,816 (of which $206,464,004 went to incumbents)-- $132,895,788 to Democrats and $120,049,954 to Republicans. Hillary Clinton took the most-- by far: $4,264,131-- by of the crooks still serving in Congress, these are the dozen most guilty:

• John McCain (R-AZ)- $1,993,823
• Patty Murray (D-WA)- $1,514,474
• Mitch McConnell (R-KY)- $1,503,635
• Chuck Schumer (D-NY)- $1,441,549
• Rob Portman (R-OH)- $1,196,186
• Ed Markey (D-MA)- $1,190,988
• Roy Blunt (R-MO)- $1,131,357
• Maria Cantwell (D-WA)- $1,128,250
• Robert Menendez (D-NJ)- $1,088,457
• Steny Hoyer (D-MD)- $1,070,391

That was since 1990. How about just in the 2016 cycle? Who were the sleaziest of them all?

• Chris Van Hollen (D-MD)- $520,041
• Marco Rubio (R-FL)- $496,468
• Chuck Schumer (D-NY)- $425,472
• Paul Ryan (R-WI)- $402,832
• Michael Bennet (D-CO)- $396,266
• Roy Blunt (R-MO)- $359,407
• Rob Portman (R-OH)- $336,413
• Patty Murray (D-WA)- $332,477
• Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)- $331,934
• Richard Burr (R-NC)- $319,453
• Patrick Murphy (D-FL)- $298,881
• Kelly Ayotte (R-NH)- $258,264

There were only 10 non-incumbents last year who made the big time in lobbyist corruption and most of them lost their races, obvious exceptions being Masto, Hassan, Harris and Gottheimer, all business-friendly "moderate" to conservative Democrats:

• Jason Kander (D-MO)- $198,375
• Katie McGinty (D-PA)- $190,342
• Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)- $171,041
• Maggie Hassan (D-NH)- $165,924
• Kamala Harris (D-CA)- $135,817
• Ted Strickland (D-OH)- $122,130
• Josh Gottheimer (Blue Dog-NJ)- $117,836
• Kathleen Matthews (D-MD)- $108,994
• Evan Bayh (D-IN)- $68,900
• Lon Johnson (Blue Dog-MI)- $53,775

This week, Kate Ackley wrote a piece for Roll Call about how the slime bag lobbyists are already gearing up for 2018. Except she didn't imply they are slime bag lobbyists, "K Street’s most generous political donors" and she wants you to feel a little compassion for them because they are writing so many checks they are suffering from "fatigue." Poor things. "The 25 biggest lobbyist donors alone," she noted, "gave $5.3 million in the 2016 cycle."

“The changes to the rules have provided for ways to give more, and with lobbyists, there is always a built-in benefit to making political contributions,” said Sheila Krumholz, executive director at the Center for Responsive Politics. “These are investments in their career.”

She sees no reason for a K Street donating ebb in 2018.

Lobbyist Heather Podesta doesn’t either, even though her presidential pick, Hillary Clinton, and some of her preferred Senate candidates lost last year. Her bipartisan firm, Heather Podesta + Partners, has hosted fundraisers this year, as early as January.

She encourages female donors, including those at the beginning of their career, to donate, Podesta said.

“Writing a check or raising funds brings you to the table in a different way than door-knocking does,” said Podesta, whose registered clients recently have included PepsiCo and Uber Technologies. “You’re just more closely connected with issues and people.”

Women, Podesta added, have traditionally been the “doers” of the Democratic Party, organizing and canvassing for candidates. “It’s really time for all of us to step up and be funders as well,” she said.

Democrats received the bulk, almost 60 percent, of donations from K Street’s biggest donors in the 2016 cycle. And very few registered lobbyists gave money to the presidential effort of Donald Trump.

An exception is Van Hipp Jr., a lobbyist with American Defense International who donated $50,000 to the Trump Victory joint fundraising committee. Hipp was among the 20 biggest donors among registered lobbyists in the 2016 cycle.

“I’m probably one of the few in D.C. who got on the Trump train early,” said Hipp, whose registered clients last year included Clemson University. “I wear that as a badge of honor.”

Lobbyists whose candidates were on the losing end, though, say they don’t view it as a bad investment.

“It’s disappointing when people you believe in and that are friends lose, and it has everything to do with the leadership that they won’t be able to exert at this moment,” Podesta said. “I believe strongly in having no regrets and helping good people.”

Democrats will be on defense in the Senate in 2018, when 10 senators are up for re-election in states that Trump won. Republican lobbyists say they are motivated to help expand their party’s 52-48 voting advantage in the chamber, while Democrats believe controversies around the Trump administration could put control of the House in play.

“There is so much energy out there,” said Steve Elmendorf, a Democratic lobbyist and the biggest K Street donor. His clients at his firm, Subject Matter, include UnitedHealth Group and MetLife.

“In ’18 the stakes are very high, and it’s really important to have a check on Trump,” Elmendorf said. “The pressure to give never goes away.”

I know how the remove the pressure. Trump, who famously promised to drain the swamp if got elected, could drain the ultimate swamp with an executive order and a piece of must pace legislation. I bet that would make his sagging job approval rating turn right around. The last time Gallup checked, lobbyists were rated very poorly among Americans. These numbers are from December, 2015:

• Very high- 2%
• High- 5%
• Average- 27%
• Low- 35%
• Very Low- 25%

Mothers, don't let your babies grow up to be lobbyists. although... Members of Congress were rated about the same. These numbers were for the very end of last year:

• Very high- 1%
• High- 7%
• Average- 31%
• Low- 39%
• Very Low- 20%

Toppling A Powerful GOP Chairman-- Not Part Of The DCCC Game Plan... But Thanks To Trump, It Could Happen

The DCCC never goes after powerful GOP chairmen and the DCCC never looks outside the box towards districts to expand the electoral map, unless, that is, its to promote a shill from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party (a New Dem or Blue Dog). But early in the cycle Blue America saw a shot for dedicated Berniecrat, Tom Wakely running against Lamar Smith in TX-21. Smith is a typical bozo science-denier but his position as the chairman of the House Science Committee makes that position dangerous for the whole country-- like when he told people in the Rio Grande Valley to keep their windows shut and stock up on Raid as he gave the thumbs down to President Obama's efforts to stave off a Zika epidemic. Smith is even worse when he feels that efforts to combat Climate Change threaten his campaign financiers at Big Oil.

TX-21, is an oddly gerrymandered district meant to dilute the influence of Travis County (Austin) Democrats with a misshapen district that winds down into the Hill Country and through Comal and Hays counties into the Republican suburbs of San Antonio (Bexar County). During the primary, Wakely ran an issues-oriented campaign on a Bernie-like platform against a conservative Democrat, Tejas Vakil. Wackily won convincingly, 29,592 (59%) to 20,566 (41%). And next Tuesday he faces Smith.

Smith has already spent $1,640,520-- $200,000 more than he raised-- to Tom's $62,313. Neither the DCCC nor the NRCC is spending any money in the district. Blue America helped contributed a phone banking system to Tom as an in-kind contribution and is running the truck (above) as an independent expenditure. Climate Hawks vote has spent $3,000 to help Wakely as well.

Lamar Smith was the first House committee chairman to endorse Trump and the only member of Congress to contribute his own money to Trump. He's as all-in for Trump as you can be. But his constituents aren't. Hillary may well win TX-21, a district Obama lost 60-38% to Romney. What happened? Suburban voters north of San Antonio and west of New Braunfels are turned off to Trump's racist, misogynist message. In 2012, Bexar County gave Obama a narrow 5 point margin over Romney (52-47%). This year, Hillary is winning by 7 points. Obama took Travis 60-36% (a 24 point margin) in 2012. This year Hillary is up a staggering 31 points. But the DCCC continues to evidence no interest in taking on Lamar Smith, let alone helping Tom Wakely.

Yesterday, KSTX, San Antonio's public radio station, put this crucial race in context: Climate Change On The Ballot In Race For TX-CD 21: Lamar Smith vs. Tom Wakely.

The 69-year old Smith was first elected to Congress in 1986. With his seniority Smith has become the influential chairman of the House Science, Space and Technology committee, which, among other things, oversees all government environmental research. That includes the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA) which is seen as the government's authority on climate change data.

"The science committee has held many hearing on NOAA's  troubled weather satellite program over the years," Smith said at a congressional hearing.

Critics say Smith has targeted NOAA due to climate change politics. He says they are manipulating their findings.

Smith disputes the dire predictions of catastrophic climate change and is using his chairmanship to threaten the head of NOAA with criminal charges if she did not release emails from scientists concerning a climate change study.

Democratic challenger Wakely calls Smith the Climate Change-Denier-in-Chief and he’s made it a key issue in his campaign.

“Climate change is the issue of our times. And it is the major issue. All these other issues, affordable housing, health care-- those are all issues that need to be addressed but they become mute if the world goes to hell in a hand basket because of climate change,” he said.

Smith says his re-election is not about climate change and when he talks with voters the topic rarely comes up.

“This is an election in my district about whether my constituents and my voters want to return someone who’s been effective and is conservative versus somebody who is an acolyte of Nancy Pelosi,” said Smith.

Wakely says he’s no acolyte of former speaker Pelosi-- he’s an acolyte of Senator Bernie Sanders. Speaking at his home that he’s turned into a hospice for veterans, Wakely says he’s getting zero help from the Democratic Party-- probably because he is such a long shot.

“I think they take a look at the historic voting patterns in the district and they make a decision,” he said.

All of Smith's 14 re-election races have been walkaways. He’s never won by less than 25 percent of the vote. The last Democrat to challenge Smith in 2012 took just 35 percent of the ballots. But Wakely says times and the district are changing.

“That whole I-35 corridor is booming. Housing developments, new apartment complexes-- so the whole demographics is changing-- it’s now over 30 percent Hispanic,” he said.

And Wakely says he could ride the possible anti-Trump surge to victory. But Smith says Trump is winning big league and he’s a big Trump supporter.

“I think Trump helps and I’m certainly supporting him. I mean he really does represent the working men and women of America,” Smith said.

Nevertheless, those who care deeply about Climate Change are closely watching Congressional District 21.

“There’s no doubt a lot of responsibility is resting on the shoulders of the voters in the district," says Aseem Prakash, the director of the University of Washington Center for Environmental Politics. "And if they can cast a vote in a way that says the United States must take climate change seriously then I think they are going to send an important message."

Prakash says even if Wakely managed to unseat Smith it wouldn’t matter much in the political fight over climate change if the GOP maintains control of Congress.

Smith said he’s eager to get reelected for his 16th term and get back to work.

“I hope to be Chairman of the Science, Space and Technology committee for another two years,” he said.

Smith says he has investigations underway and there’s more work to be done to quote “hold this administration accountable.”

Brad Johnson, the executive director of Climate Hawks Vote and one of the most respected voices on Climate policy told us that "Lamar Smith is attacking anyone seeking to hold ExxonMobil accountable for its decades-long cover-up of the the dangers of global warming pollution. Tom is an unabashed progressive, Bernie Sanders-endorsing, Air Force veteran with a strong background as a union organizer and deep roots within the Christian left. Most important, he’s running as a champion of climate science. He’s connecting the dots among Texas’ record floods, the religious imperative to care for what God created, and the need for urgent action."

It isn't too late to contribute to Tom's campaign either. "Our campaign," he told me, "has always been about our field efforts and making contact with folks in the district. My job as the candidate has been heavily focused on retail politics. Every bit of support we've received has been directed to literature, signs, gasoline, and the occasional breakfast taco for the hardest working volunteers in Texas. It's about having as many voters to meet or talk to our amazing team. The clock stops at 7PM on November 8th. We won't be stopping anytime before then. We owe that much to our family, our friends, our volunteers, and our supporters. There's no sleep when our future is at stake."

How Complete Is Trump's Hostile Takeover Of The Republican Party?

Jeb Bush didn't stand up to Trump convincingly enough but he hit the nail on the head in December when he labeled Trump the "chaos candidate." Too bad no one was paying any attention to Bush by then. Trump wants chaos. He's learned how to profit when everything seems to be falling apart; it's part of his business model-- part of whatever passes for a creed he has. It's why he makes oafish remarks that celebrate the housing collapse and it's informed his decisions on his own serial bankruptcies. And it accounts for the war he's promulgating against Ohio Republican Governor John Kasich and Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz. Mark Halperin reported Friday that "Trump plans to create and fund super-PACs specifically aimed at ending the political careers of Ted Cruz and John Kasich should either run for office again" and that he'd put $20 million into them, maybe more. "Kasich, 64," he wrote, "cannot run again for Ohio governor due to the state’s term limits. The 45-year-old Cruz is up for re-election in 2018. Both men have indicated an interest in running for president again in 2020, when they would either face Hillary Clinton or mount a primary challenge to a sitting Republican, Trump."

Kasich, who Trump offered to make his running mate and give control of domestic and foreign affairs, predicted that Trump probably can't win his state. No Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio. Campaigning for a Republican congressional candidate in Bucks County Friday, Kasich said that "Ohio's a snapshot of the country. People in Ohio want to see a positive agenda, a positive way to move forward." He said he wouldn't actively campaign against Trump, refused to say he would even vote for him and seems unlikely to be interested in activating the Republican Party machinery in Ohio on Trump's behalf, concentrating instead on trying to help endangered Rob Portman win his Senate reelection bid.

Trump has been very negative about Ohio lately-- forcing the host delegation to sit behind Pennsylvania at the convention, a kind of collective punishment-- and has said he thinks he can make up the loss of Ohio by winning bright blue states like New Jersey and California. Republican Party leaders have asked him to not waste his resources and energy campaigning in New Jersey and California.

Trump probably figures after he stands in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoots someone and still wins the GOP primary, he can toss hand grenades down 6th Street in Austin, at the Alamo or from the 75th floor of the JPMorgan Chase Tower in Houston without losing Texas in November. And it speaks to the dysfunction and atrophy of the Texas Democratic Party that he could well be right. The last Democrat to win a presidential election in Texas was when Jimmy Carter beat Jerry Ford there in 1976. More recently, Democrats struggle to get 40% of the vote-- neither Gore nor Kerry did and Obama wound up with just 41.4% in 2012. But Trump's war against Ted Cruz, who may be hated by normal people everywhere, is regarded as something of a principled hero in his home state, he may actually be putting Texas into play.

In this year's Texas primaries, 2,832,234 Republicans voted while just 1,433,908 Democrats went to the polls. Texas has 254 counties. Trump won 6 of them, including Hudspeth County east of El Paso where he took 76 votes to Ted Cruz's 71, and Zapata County down on the Rio Grande, where Trump's 34 votes bested Cruz's 32 votes. But in the big counties that determine election outcomes, Trump got wiped out. The biggest county in the state is Harris County (Houston), population 4,441,370. This was how the votes panned out in Harris Co:

• Hillary- 156,729
• Cruz- 147,721
• Trump- 79,793
• Bernie- 63,246
• Rubio- 63,199

The second biggest county-- population 2,518,638-- is Dallas County, not exactly Trump country either... not by any stretch of the imagination:

• Hillary- 113,574
• Cruz- 61,072
• Rubio- 45,962
• Bernie- 44,231
• Trump- 43,301

Right next door is Tarrant County, basically Ft. Worth, with a population of 1,945,360... still not Trump territory.

• Cruz- 88,867
• Hillary- 67,590
• Trump- 56,023
• Rubio- 43,689
• Bernie- 35,507

Fast-growing Bexar County-- San Antonio-- is the 4th biggest county with 1,855,86 and Trump flopped there too, with less support than Bernie and barely beating Rubio.

• Hillary- 76,5012
• Cruz- 54,115
• Bernie- 36,720
• Trump- 32,701
• Rubio- 30,683

You'd probably expect trouble for Trumpism in Austin, seat of the 5th biggest county in the state-- and you'd be correct. The population is 1,151,145 and this was the breakdown in the primaries-- in which Trump came in last of all the candidates:

• Bernie- 73,889
• Hillary- 69,314
• Cruz- 25,757
• Rubio- 24,815
• Trump- 21,469

Collin County (Plano, just north of Dallas) is the 6th biggest with a population of 885,241. It's a deep red stronghold... but wasn't Trumpish either, the kind of place where he's got to win over the Cruz voters if he hopes to win the more important Republican state in the entire country:

• Cruz- 46,094
• Trump- 29,772
• Rubio- 27,082
• Hillary- 23,591
• Bernie- 16,082

Next in population comes El Paso County, with 833,487 people. I guess they never heard of Trump out there; he came in dead last.

• Hillary- 36,067
• Bernie- 17,176
• Cruz- 10,919
• Rubio- 7,378
• Trump- 7,270

Hidalgo County (population 831,073) is down in the Rio Grande Valley and Trump wouldn't win any of his beauty pageants there either:

• Hillary- 40,276
• Bernie- 15,894
• Cruz- 7,098
• Trump- 5,521
• Rubio- 4,153

Back into the North Texas red-belt, next up is Denton County north of Ft. Worth, with a population of 753,363-- lots of people, mostly Republicans, but, again, Trump should be wooing the Cruz voters, not alienating them.

• Cruz- 39,404
• Trump- 24,341
• Rubio- 21,007
• Hillary- 16,470
• Bernie- 15,750

Ft. Bend County, southwest of Houston is the 10th biggest-- population 685,345-- and it is part of the suburban Republican heartland.

• Cruz- 31,422
• Hillary- 29,248
• Trump- 16,924
• Rubio- 13,388
• Bernie- 9,765

Montgomery County (population 518,947), also suburban Houston, is Texas' 11th biggest and is very, very reliably Republican, the kind of place that allows the GOP to run up huge statewide totals election after election.If Trump wins over the Cruz voters in places like the Houston 'burbs, he won't have to worry about Clinton doing what no other Democrat has managed since Carter. 

• Cruz- 43,797
• Trump- 24,150
• Rubio- 13,398
• Hillary- 7,540
• Bernie- 5,040

And let's round this little survey out with an even dozen counties, Williamson, the very Republican north Austin suburbs, being the 12th biggest in the state with 489,250 people.

• Cruz- 23,880
• Trump- 17,318
• Hillary- 16,374
• Rubio- 14,716
• Bernie- 14,501

One deranged Trump operative, Michael Caputo has joined with lunatics like Sarah Palin in prosecuting Trump's war against Cruz. Caputo is trying to lure Rick Perry-- who endorsed Trump after calling him a "barking carnival act"-- into running against Cruz. Caputo has been pushing a news story about Cruz campaigning for a far right extremist state Senator, Mike Crane, in his runoff against Drew Ferguson for the congressional seat being vacated by Lynn Westmoreland. Ferguson is best known for telling people it's OK to shoot policemen, an extreme position on the far right fringes of the Republican Party. This is the ad on TV now while Cruz is in Georgia campaigning for Crane:



This is right up Trump's alley and Cruz is already getting bad press for it in Georgia. In fact, the Georgia Fraternal Order of Police is protesting Cruz. The group's vice president said Georgia police are disappointed in Cruz for coming to Crane's aid. "With the recent events in Dallas, Texas, I find it sad that Senator Cruz would allow himself to be pulled into the political cesspool by a candidate who has openly promoted shooting law enforcement officers."

I was shocked to read in the NY Times that far right sociopath and hedge fund crook, Robert Mercer, who shoveled at least $13,500,400-- but likely far more--  into Cruz's campaign this year, publicly excoriated Cruz for being mean to Trumpy-the-Clown. They accused him of breaking his pledge to support Trump and then accused Hillary of plotting to "repeal both the First and Second Amendments of the Bill of Rights." Vegas Mafia gambling czar and Republican Party kingpin Sheldon Adelson is also mad and barred Cruz from his suite after he spoke at the convention.

Meanwhile, transplanted Texan GOP activist Chris Ladd, now living in Illinois, posted the Willie Nelson video below and wrote an open letter of resignation to York Township Republican Committee Chairman Cuzzone:

The Iraq War, the financial meltdown, the utter failure of supply-side theory, climate denial, and our strange pursuit of theocratic legislation have all been troubling. Yet it seemed that America’s party of commerce, trade, and pragmatism might still have time to sober up. Remaining engaged in the party implied a contribution to that renaissance, an investment in hope. Donald Trump has put an end to that hope.

From his fairy-tale wall to his schoolyard bullying and his flirtation with violent racists, Donald Trump offers America a singular narrative-- a tale of cowards. Fearful people, convinced of our inadequacy, trembling before a world alight with imaginary threats, crave a demagogue. Neither party has ever elevated to this level a more toxic figure, one that calls forth the darkest elements of our national character.

With three decades invested in the Republican Party, there is a powerful temptation to shrug and soldier on. Despite the bold rhetoric, we all know Trump will lose. Why throw away a great personal investment over one bad nominee? Trump is not merely a poor candidate, but an indictment of our character. Preserving a party is not a morally defensible goal if that party has lost its legitimacy.

Watching Ronald Reagan as a boy, I recall how bold it was for him to declare ‘morning again’ in America. In a country menaced by Communism and burdened by a struggling economy, the audacity of Reagan’s optimism inspired a generation.

Fast-forward to our present leadership and the nature of our dilemma is clear. I watched Paul Ryan speak at Donald Trump’s convention the way a young child watches his father march off to prison. Thousands of Republican figures that loathe Donald Trump, understand the danger he represents, and privately hope he loses, are publicly declaring their support for him. In Illinois our local and state GOP organizations, faced with a choice, have decided on complicity.

Our leaders’ compromise preserves their personal capital at our collective cost. Their refusal to dissent robs all Republicans of moral cover. Evasion and cowardice has prevailed over conscience. We are now, and shall indefinitely remain, the Party of Donald Trump.

I will not contribute my name, my work, or my character to an utterly indefensible cause. No sensible adult demands moral purity from a political party, but conscience is meaningless without constraints. A party willing to lend its collective capital to Donald Trump has entered a compromise beyond any credible threshold of legitimacy. There is no redemption in being one of the “good Nazis.”

I hereby resign my position as a York Township Republican committeeman. My thirty-year tenure as a Republican is over.

Friday, after listening to Trump's speech, Republican propagandist Matt Continetti was moved to write a scathing report, The Demagogue Rises, for the Washington Free Beacon, a prominent right-wing website. It's a chilling indictment of their party's presidential candidate from a Republican perspective:

Donald Trump delivered the longest, loudest convention speech in recent memory when he accepted the Republican nomination for president Thursday evening. He made no attempt to “pivot to the general election,” moderate his agenda, smooth over rough rhetoric. Gone was Mitt Romney’s Etch-a-Sketch, tossed into a dustbin with George W. Bush’s Freedom Agenda, George H.W. Bush’s Thousand Points of Light, Ronald Reagan’s Morning in America. Trump was his usual self: brash, boisterous, overbearing, defiant, inimitable, roiling with anger over the state of the country and the corruption, ineffectiveness, and arrogance of the nation’s elite. Trump won’t change, won’t learn, won’t listen, won’t apologize, won’t cavil, won’t conform to the traditions of presidential politics or adhere to the norms of political discourse. He doesn’t care about facts, he wants to overturn the postwar international order, he champions the will to power, he mercilessly attacks opponents. He’s a demagogue in dark suits, electric ties. I can only imagine what he’d be capable of if he were competent.

Because he’s not competent. He is actually truly, magnificently inept. The convention was a mess, haphazard, disorganized, weird. The botched roll call vote, Melania’s plagiarism, Ted Cruz’s hand grenade, the leaked speech draft-- all of these gaffes and scandals occurred against the backdrop of dismal attendance, chants to put Hillary in prison, bizarre speakers, rambling addresses, early departures, and testimonies to Trump’s greatness. His campaign has practically no money, no advertising, no infrastructure, no grassroots operation. The other day, when he expressed uncertainty about whether the United States would lead NATO in defense of the Baltic States if they were attacked by Russia, Trump made history by provoking an international incident without even being president. Many GOP officials wouldn’t come near the convention, including Ohio’s popular governor. There are two Republican parties for the moment: the party led by Trump and the Republican Party in exile, the party of Kasich and Larry Hogan and Nikki Haley and Charlie Baker and Brian Sandoval and Mark Kirk and Ted Cruz. Election Day won’t just determine who will succeed President Obama. It will also determine the fate of Donald J. Trump’s hostile takeover of the GOP.