2018 Senate Election Scorecard
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by Gaius Publius
The chart above represents my best guess about the future split of the Senate, using only races that seem contested. Note:
• The Senate is currently divided 51-49 in favor of the Republicans, so the Democrats (and the two independents who caucus with them) are down two already.
• The column labeled "Change 1" shows a best-case result for Democrats. The column labeled "Change 2" shows a worst case result based on my read of the possibilities and probabilities.
The First Ten Races
Races in the above chart are numbered 1 through 15. The first ten all have clear leaders.
• Races 1–6 are all contests with Democratic incumbents where the Democrat is leading and expected to win, if only by single digits. Though there could be some surprises, they are not widely expected. Let's call those races for the Democrats. Net change: zero.
• The next four races, numbered 7 through 10, are more in doubt. They feature two Democratic incumbents and two Republican incumbents. In all four, the Republican is leading. Though things could change, I expect a Republican winner in each of them.
This means that Claire McCaskill and Heidi Heitkamp will lose, and Ted Cruz will keep his seat despite a strong challenge by Beto O'Roarke. Polls in the Texas race range from Tossup to Likely Republican, with Leans Republican the mean result, implying a mid-single-digit win for Cruz. We'll see.
If the predictions for races 1–10 hold, Democrats have lost two seats already.
Races Considered "Even"
Let's treat the next six races, numbered 11 through 16, as three groups of pairs. All of these races are scored "even" by polling.
• In the first pair of "even" races, the outcome is a little more predictable than the others. These feature two Democratic incumbents, Joe Donnelly (IN) and Joe Manchin (WV). If those outcomes are split — if Democrats win one and Republicans win the other — the Democrats lose another seat, for a net loss of –3.
It appears now that Donnelly will lose and Manchin will win, so I'm counting these outcomes as likely in the best case column (Change 1) for a net no-change on the two races. In the worse case column (Change 2), both lose, and Democrats are now –4 seats so far.
• The second pair of "even" races are much harder to predict. These feature incumbents Democrat Nelson (FL), who's running against former governor Rick Scott, and Republican Dean Heller (NV), who's running against Democrat Jacky Rosen. If those two races are split, the composition of the Senate will depend on which way the split goes.
The Change 1 column shows both Democrats winning, in which case Democrats pick up one seat (NV). In the worse case column, both Democrats lose, and Democrats are down –5 seats so far.
I think it's slightly more likely that Heller will lose (Nevada is home to the Harry Reid machine) and that Scott will beat Nelson., so a middle outcome would have the two races split — Democrats taking NV and Republicans taking FL — for a net no change on the pair.
• The final pair of races are for two open seats (AZ and TN), both of which were held by Republicans. I expect a split to be the most likely outcome, and if I had to guess, Democrats will win in Arizona with Kyrsten Sinema and Republicans will win in Tennessee.
That's the best case; if so, Democrats pick up a seat from this pair. In the worst case, Republicans hold both seats, for a net of no change.
Summary
In the best case scenario (Change 1 column), the first ten races go as expected (for a loss of –2), and in the "even" races, Democrats lose Indiana but pick up Nevada and Arizona. The total change is a loss of one seat, and the new Senate is split 52-48 in favor of Republicans.
In the worst case scenario (Change 2 column), the first ten races go as expected (for a loss of –2), and of the "even" races, Democrats lose all of them, for a total change of –5 seats. In that scenario, the new Senate split is 56-44.
A middle case: The worst case scenario plays out, except that Sinema wins in AZ and Manchin wins in WV. That's still a net loss of three seats, and the new Senate is split 54-46.
In all of these cases, Democrats lose ground in the Senate — in some of them quite a lot — and Chuck Schumer, I have to say, has presided over a failure, primarily because of his candidate selection and his dogged defense of people like Manchin, Heitkamp and Donnelly.
The Bright Side
Democrats were never going to take the Senate anyway, not with this set of candidates doing what they've been doing.
Claire McCaskill is closing out the 2018 campaign with a call for "civility" and also immigrant-bashing caravan paranoia https://t.co/yCNmijWFul— Zach Carter (@zachdcarter) November 2, 2018
On the bright side, with this house-cleaning Democrats can build back up from a base set of senators that excludes Heitkamp, Donnelly, McCaskill, and maybe even Manchin and Sinema.
GP
Labels: Claire McCaskill, Gaius Publius, Joe Donnelly, Senate 2018
posted by Gaius Publius @ 9:00 AM
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3 Comments:
Of course, it's anyone's guess at this point. The hardest part of gauging these races is figuring out what the electorate will look like. e.g. a surge in first-time, unlikely mid-term voters could bode well for the Dems. Odds are that Heitkamp will lose, but I think Dems will probably hold on to FL, Missouri, WV, IN (based on the most recent polling). I think it's likely that the Dems will also flip both AZ and NV (e.g. AZ based on polling, NV based on the Dems advantage in the early vote). I don't think it's out of the question that Dems win TN and TX -- although these are clearly longer shots. e.g. in the case of TN, the argument is based on the 700% increase in young voters, which, if that translates to election day, would probably tip the seat to the Dems. In Beto's case, I think he'll probably close to within 5% against Cruz, which is impressive enough, but I think he probably needs a bigger push out of places like Hidalgo County, TX than what he has had so far (e.g. 80% of the 2016 president vote -- two-fold increase compared to the 2014 mid-term, but probably needs to exceed the 2016 vote to put him over the top).
In my worst-case guess, Trump decides he doesn't like not being in charge, and doesn't want to risk the democraps making any kind of a comeback. I still expect that he will Wag the Dog and declare a national emergency and martial law. This will, of course, "force" him to suspend elections until the crisis is past.
Only it never will be.
This is off topic, but I posted that I'd like to know how much Trump's military grandstanding on the border is costing. AS they say, ask and ye shall receive:
Troop Deployment to the Border Will Cost $220 Million, and the Pentagon Seems to Think It’s a Waste
But they do nothing about it - or Him. Clearly, their oaths to defend the US against all enemies foreign and domestic isn't worth the paper it isn't written upon.
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