Thursday, May 05, 2016

An Anti-Trump Tsunami? DCCC Incompetence Will Protect The GOP Majority In The House


No one likes to blame her, but Steve Israel is Nancy Pelosi's fault-- 100%

Otherwise sane commentators have been repeating an absurdist DCCC line that Trump is so toxic and the Republican Party brand so polluted that November could see the Democrats take back the House. It can't. Dream all you want, it cannot happen. Now, had Pelosi cleaned out that nest of corrupt vipers last year or the year before or the year before that-- as they managed to lose dozens and dozens of Democratic seats-- and replaced the leadership with capable Democrats like Keith Ellison or Mark Pocan or Donna Edwards, the DCCC would indeed be on track to win the 30 seats it would take to win back the House. But she didn't and she's stuck with a dysfunction organization that doesn't know how to win, that only knows how to lose.

Yesterday John Harwood wrote for the NYTimes that "by alienating huge blocks of general election voters in his drive for the Republican presidential nomination, Mr. Trump has created the possibility of a Democratic breakthrough." Yes, Trump has alienated huge blocks of general election voters but, no Trump has not created the possibility of a Democratic breakthrough in the House and the Senate was a sure thing based on which seats are coming up, just like 2018 is a sure thing for the GOP based on which seats are coming then. Let's do our homework, children. Speaking of which... some movement in presidential prospects from Cook in a blue direction (except Maine):

The Beltway's dumbest congressional election prognosticator, the Dean of Dumb Prognosticators, Charlie Cook, wrote after Trump's win in Indiana that "from here on out, Republicans will bravely try to appear calm while quietly doing everything possible to contain the down-ballot damage-- trying to retain their Senate majority and keep House losses down to 10 or 15 seats." He then quotes the Beltway's favorite fake expert, Dave Wasserman, claiming the House is now unpredictable. It isn't-- and Wasserman knows it; in fact he says Dems could maybe hope for 20 seats. That's not 30.
Given current boundaries for House members’ districts, Mr. Wasserman has identified dozens of Republican-held districts with one or more of six “risk factors” that could give Democrats a chance if Mrs. Clinton routs Mr. Trump at the top of the ticket.

They include the 26 Republican-held districts that Mr. Obama carried in 2012, districts where Latinos and Asians make up at least 20 percent of the electorate and districts where at least 25 percent of adults hold a college degree.

Forty Republican incumbents have at least three of the six risk factors. Retirements by Republican incumbents have left Democrats in position to compete for an additional 10 seats this fall.

“There’s a danger for Republicans,” Mr. Wasserman said.
Yes, in a theoretical world-- or a world where Steve Israel had been fired long ago and Ben Ray Lujan never hired-- there would be a danger. But on Monday, as an example, we looked at GOP-held seats with 25% of greater Latino populations. There are 30. The DCCC goes into the battle having discounted 22 of them. Almost none of them have plausible Democratic candidates and many of them have no Democratic candidate at all! Wasserman and others like him never seem to want to confront or explain that ugly reality that the DCCC tries to keep their sucker donors from finding out about. Take, for example FL-27, a district in Miami-Dade that Obama won in 2008 with 51% and in 2012 with an even better 53%. 76% of the population is Hispanic. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Steve Israel have guaranteed the friendly Republican incumbent that they would never allow a Democrat to challenge her-- and they never have. They neglected to recruit a candidate this year when either Hillary or Bernie is guaranteed a landslide victory over Trump in the district, probably a minimum of 65-35%, perhaps better. Remember, the district is 76% Hispanic but thanks to the exertions of Wasserman Schultz, her corrupt right-wing friend, Ilya Ros-Lehtinen, will have no contest to win reelection. Up the road in FL-25, Mario Diaz-Balart-- in a district that is 74% Hispanic and also sure to rebuff Trump, the DCCC is working to sabotage a progressive challenger, Alina Valdes. Yes, you read that right; it isn't the NRCC working to undermine Valdes; it's the DCCC. NM-02 (53% Hispanic), TX-27 (52% Hispanic), CA-22 (47% Hispanic), CA-08 (39% Hispanic) and CA-23 (38% Hispanic) are all being studiously ignored by the DCCC. In fact 20% of the most Latino GOP-held districts don't have any Democrat running at all. So how does the DCCC win back the House even in an anti-Trump tsunami? They don't.

That didn't stop Paul Waldman from writing yesterday that "Democrats are now fantasizing about not just taking back the Senate, but the House as well, something that seemed impossible a few months ago." Yes, and is still impossible-- literally impossible.

Even in blue districts where a Democrat "can't lose," Steve Israel, Ben Ray Lujan and Denny Heck have managed to undermine local Democratic parties' progressive candidates in favor of conservative outsiders they are trying to force into the nominations. There are dozens of examples everywhere in the country. One that came to light recently was when Pennsylvania Democrats in Delaware, Chester, Montgomery and Berks counties enthusiastically decided to get behind progressive Mary Ellen Balchunis. The 3 horsemen of the apocalypse, Israel, Lujan and Heck, decided she's too liberal and not rich enough so they got behind some wealthy knucklehead and put him on their absurd Red-to-Blue list and told donors he's the official candidate and not to give any money to Mary Ellen-- you know what hypocrite Nancy Pelosi says about "when women win," right?-- etc. So the DCCC hack, Bill Golderer, spent $239,391 and Mary Ellen spent $45,541 and two weeks ago she kicked the DCCC's corrupt ass from Blue Bell, Kulpsville, King of Prussia and Upper Darby to Intercourse, Amityville and the suburbs south of Reading, beating their sad sack candidate 51,525 (73.8%) to 18,276 (26.2%). So the DCCC, in a fit of pique, immediately abandoned the "must win" district and refused to get behind Balchunis and the local Pennsylvania Democrats.

Right now they are working furiously to defeat Lou Vince, the overwhelming pick of the California Democratic Party in CA-25, so they can get their wealthy and corrupt outsider into the nomination, Brian Caforio, using the identical tactics that failed against Mary Ellen Balchunis. They're doing even worse against Pat Murphy in Iowa, on behalf of a rich Republican fence-jumper they recruited, Monica Vernon. If I were to detail every race where the DCCC is using resources to undermine progressives in favor of corrupt conservatives, I'd be up all night. But if you want to push back, please consider contributing to the progressive Democratic candidates on this list:
Goal Thermometer

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At 6:34 PM, Blogger Un Known said...

So it really turns out that Nancy Pelosi is a conserva-Dem? It sure seems like it. But has it manifested previously, or is it something that happened late in her political career? I mean, if she wasn't a conserva-Dem, why would she stick with the low-achieving Steve Israel, for prime example, when his work inevitably results in either Republicans elected or Democrats elected who vote at least as much with Republicans as with Democrats.

Is it that Pelosi has always been merely a Wall Street Dem in FDR-LBJ Dem clothing? Or has the overwhelming Big Money Pressure finally just caused her to cave in to the corruption of her wealthy peers now that she's more wealthy herself?

It's very perplexing and disappointing, this Pelosi who's either always been or has turned into a political revanchivist. Have you any thoughts about this, Mr. DWT? Would be appreciated.

At 7:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Poor Maryellen follows in the the footsteps of Brian Lentz who was also sabotaged horribly n Pa 7
The state party is just a bad, too.

At 12:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Have they abandoned OH-14 as well?

At 1:30 PM, Blogger DownWithTyranny said...

Well, about OH-14, they encouraged Michael Wager to run but they're not putting any resources into his campaign and I think they're just keeping their fingers crossed and hoping Trump proves so unpalatable to moderate voters that David Joyce gets swept away. There should be new fundraising numbers out soon but as of the March 31 FEC deadline, Joyce had raised $1,572,435 and Wager had only raised $35,267.

At 8:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Still interested in your thoughts on Pelosi, DWT. Thanks.

At 6:41 AM, Blogger DownWithTyranny said...

Time for Pelosi to take Hoyer and retire


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