How Will the State Respond to Increasingly Forceful Protests? A Preliminary Look at the Road to Rebellion in America.

(Source)

by Thomas Neuburger

I began writing this piece by considering the modern shape of rebellion, should it come, in America. That led to words on the shapes of rebellion in general which led to many more words, a chapter in fact of some pages.

Let’s spare you that for now, and do this instead. Let’s look at two short news stories, both about rebellions and the state’s response, one a nascent rebellion by the right and another a nascent rebellion by the left.

One is Covid-related and the other is not. Both occurred recently. Considering each offers a window into how a broader revolt, or several, might progress, depending on whether the left or the right is leading it.

A Protest by the Right

First, consider this:

Michigan Closes Down Capitol in Face of Death Threats From Armed Protesters Against Gov. Whitmer

On Thursday, Michigan closed down its capitol building and canceled its legislative session after online death threats made against Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

The threats were made by protesters who planned to attend a “Judgement Day” protest at the capitol. The protesters ostensibly oppose Whitmer’s statewide shutdown orders meant to slow the spread of coronavirus.

Dozens of posts in private invitation-only Facebook groups called for Whitmer to be hanged, lynched, shot, beaten or beheaded. One suggested crowdfunding sources to hire a hitman to kill her.

“We haven’t had any bloodshed yet, but the populous [sic] is counting to three, and yesterday was day two,” wrote Dave Meisenheimer in a 385,000-member Facebook group called Michiganders Against Excessive Quarantine. “Next comes the watering the tree of liberty with the blood of tyrants,” he concluded.

Numerous other posts referred to Whitmer as a “Nazi,” “spawn of the devil,” “wicked witch,” “Soros puppet,” “baby killer tyrant” and more, according to the Detroit Metro Times. Others promised to attend upcoming protests “armed to the death” and without face masks, threatening to attack any police officers who dared confront them.

To which the response was this:

Whitmer and Attorney General Dana Nessel have considered banning firearms from the Capitol building but are awaiting the six-member Michigan State Capitol Commission to figure out if they have the legal authority to do so.

“There are legislators who are wearing bulletproof vests to go to work,” Whitmer told ABC News last week.

No one is talking about investigating, arresting, spying on or bringing to trial those making these death threats. The protests were warned, however, that they "could be charged with brandishing if they are threatening to others." Instead of being shut down and arrested, they forced a government shutdown — a fleeing, if you will — and the protest went off as planned.

(As a mental exercise, imagine the response by police and others if the protesters had been black.)

A Strike by the Left

Now consider this, a pre-Covid 2020 wage strike at UC Santa Cruz:

California Police Used Military Surveillance Tech at Grad Student Strike

UC Santa Cruz police utilized military surveillance equipment to surveil and police the graduate student ‘wildcat’ strike earlier this year.

The California National Guard provided military surveillance equipment to the University of California at Santa Cruz’s Police Department in order to surveil and police the UC Santa Cruz graduate student wildcat strike earlier this year, documents acquired through the California Public Records Act show.

California National Guard, the state’s federally funded military force, provided so-called “friendly force trackers,” a military surveillance technology used to track U.S. troops in military combat, to monitor pickets, according to emails dated February 11 and 13. Police responding to the strike also had access to LEEP, a federal surveillance portal operated by the FBI. The emails show that law enforcement was monitoring student protest groups and social media to plan its response.

The California Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) also assisted with law enforcement response.

I said “consider the state's response” in my introduction because clearly a large part of the mechanism of the state was involved in this response — the California National Guard provided equipment to the campus Police Department, who also had assistance from the FBI and the California Office of Emergency Services.

That’s a lot of virtual firepower trained on a small group of grad students at single university, though UC Santa Cruz's reputation for radicalism may have influenced the state's response.

What Does This Comparison Tell Us?

Both of these events are rebellious acts, one by the right in protest of the government of Michigan’s Covid-19 shutdown order, the other by graduate teaching assistants who “walked off the job and withheld grades to demand an $1,412 increase to their cost of living stipend.”

Only one threatened violence though, and that one threatened quite a bit of it. Yet the state handled the wage strike much more aggressively than it handled the side that threatened death and brought guns to their events.

Which leads to a couple of questions:

• Consider a world in the not too distant future in which right-wing protests do turn violent and people are shot, some by protesters who may even be the instigators.

What does a right-revolting world look like from the standpoint of the government’s response?

• Next consider a world in which a left-led rent strike or debt strike or Covid-fueled health-and-safety strike turns violent, not because of the protesters, who are generally less violent than Trump-fueled mobs (see above), but in a clash between protesters and counter-protesters, or protesters and police whose propensity for violence in these cases is well known.

Police using pepper spray on peaceful Occupy protestors at UC Davis

What does a left-revolting world look like from the standpoint of the government’s response?

The World of Tomorrow

Revolt in today's America today will never become a Battle of Lexington world, a pattern established in the first of our revolutions. But it could devolve to a world of protests-gone-bad — or protests-forcefully-disallowed if they’re coming from the left — all when the pressure cooker of life in a donor class–controlled state becomes not just onerous, but economically impossible and medically life-threatening.

I don’t have answers to the questions above, but I do know which questions I suggest you ask if you want to start to answer them:

• What does a right-led rebellion look like in its early stages? How does the state respond? Are those revolts tacitly encouraged?

• What does a left-led rebellion look like in its early stages? How does the state respond? Are those revolts violently suppressed?

• What if both rebellions occur in parallel? How would police-abused left  respond to coddling of violence by the right?

We’re closer than ever before to a world in which many on both sides have stopped believing that government cares to fix the shared tragedy of their lives, and both sides are closer than ever before to doing something about it.

Thomas Jefferson correctly wrote that “mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.” Yet when revolt does breaks out, it does so suddenly, often chaotically, and then the country becomes a place most people won’t want to live in, yet can’t escape.

We're approaching fast the next phase of revolt in America, whatever shape it takes. We're long past that day in November of 2008 when promises of "hope and change" were a cause for optimism. The dashing of that hope, in fact, is itself a cause of despair. The outcomes of the elections of 2016 simply confirmed what both sides already knew, that no one, certainly not the donor-run state, is on their side.

So count me among the group that fears what's coming. The arrogant rich, those who control both parties and the state, will never ever stand down, rolling the dice instead on the chaos that will follow. I fear the world their hubris will create.
  

The Gilets Jaunes Movement Is a Lot More Complicated Than You Think (Plus Notes for the U.S. in 2020)

Asset composition by wealth percentile in France (source). Note that the percentile axis (the x-axis) is not linear — the marks show deciles from 0% to 90%, but the remaining decile is further broken into four ever-tightening groups, 90-95%, 95-99%, 99.5-99.9% and 99.9-100%. The non-linearity of the asset amounts at each mark is also striking, though predictable. The assets for those at the 30% mark are roughly 10 times those at the 10% mark; assets at the 50% mark are just four times those at the 30% mark; and assets at 70% are about twice those at 50%. Then asset increases start to climb, even as the groups shrink, until assets at the 99.9% mark are six times those just a half-percent below, at the 99.5% mark.

by Gaius Publius

From this part of the world, the gilets jaunes (yellow vests) movement in France is a curiosity. Many on the left see it as a rebuke of the neoliberal policies of President Macron — because it is a rebuke of those policies — and therefore add onto it their own ideas about what an anti-neoliberal rebellion means.

But is it just that? A friend of mine and former writing partner, "ChrisInParis" at the old Americablog, has lived many years in France and pointed us recently to this Twitter thread about the gilets jaunes (GJ) with the admonition, "The GJ are a lot more complicated than you think."

The following abstracts that thread. (To jump to my own thoughts on what this means for the U.S., click here.) I present it hoping to prevent you from simplifying les gilets jaunes into a kind of fantasia on the theme of the 2011 Arab Spring. It's not that.

The gilets jaunes movement is a very mixed bag, with left elements, right elements, far-right elements, class grievances, economic grievances, racial animus, co-optionist actors and some flailing. Not all participants adhere to all beliefs of all other participants, by a long shot. And the movement is in the process of transforming itself, being transformed by its own onward energy, or being hijacked, depending on how events play out.

So, as you ponder and speak about les gilets jaunes, tread lightly. The thread below explains all that. It starts here:

1/ So, this is a thread on the Gilets Jaunes (GJs). I see a lot of confusion out there re: the protests, as well as a tendency among some to view the movement through a biased lens, such that, for example, if you dislike Macron you may be approving of the movement & vice versa.

— Mangy Jay (@magi_jay) December 9, 2018

The following is the text.

1/ So, this is a thread on the Gilets Jaunes (GJs). I see a lot of confusion out there re: the protests, as well as a tendency among some to view the movement through a biased lens, such that, for example, if you dislike Macron you may be approving of the movement & vice versa.

2/ 1st, some caveats:
Caveat #1: I know more about France than most people, but I do not know more than all people. I am open to correction & new information. . . .

3/ Caveat #2: A lot of the info we have on the protests is scattershot at this point. I will talk about the evidence we currently have, but am open to the possibility it could be flawed.

4/ Moving on, the confusion about the movement is completely understandable. I remain very confused about aspects of it. It's hard to get a handle on what exactly is happening on the ground.

The most pertinent questions are: who is protesting? What are they protesting? Etc.

5/ So, some background: you will notice a lot of people saying that many in France approve of the protestors & that Macron’s approval is low. Both of these facts are true.

6/ However, both of these facts *generally* hold in France. Presidential approval is often low (they have multiple parties, are less partisan, there’s often gridlock, the party of the PM is often different than the party of the Prez, etc.)

7/ None of this is in defense of Macron. Nor is it to say that the French are not particularly disapproving of him (recall: his party is new, thus his base of support is likely even softer than it would be).

It's just good to remember: low presidential approval is not unusual.

8/ Re: approval for protestors. France is a very protest-friendly country. They often speak approvingly of any protest, even those they may ideologically disagree w/. (This may not, however, be the case if the protestors are primarily black and brown).

9/ None of this is to insinuate that the French, in general, are not particularly fond of Les Gilets Jaunes (I have no idea). Just to say that, broadly speaking, the French are predisposed to both protesting & valuing the spirit of protest.
2 replies 1 retweet 46 likes

10/ This is perhaps reflected in the government’s willingness to respond to protest demands, something that’s not really being reported on:

Macron scraps fuel tax rise in face of gilets jaunes protests

11/ Now the other thing to understand about France is that there are deep societal tensions related to immigration. There is also racism & islamophobia. This pre-dates the current refugee crisis & is complexly related to the fact that France was a colonial state.

12/ &, like the U.S., France contains a spectrum of discriminatory beliefs & behaviors. For ex, there is the openly bigoted far-right party (FN), but then there are also more subtle & societally “acceptable” biases (cf. burkini ban). There is also structural racism & segregation.

13/ That’s all to provide the general societal backdrop. 

So, onto the next Q: where did the GJ protests come from?

The protests have been generally cited as originally occurring in response to a fuel tax intended to combat climate change.

14/ Such a flat tax would technically be regressive, given the poor would pay the same as the rich. It could also hurt rural communities more than urban communities due to asymmetries in availability of public transportation.

15/ I think there are reasonable debates to be had about the role/nature of climate-change-focused taxation. More here:

Another important Q for us ALL to explore is the following: taxing fuel equally for everyone is regressive & places an undue burden on the poor. I'm not in favor of sales taxes generally for this reason
However, given the nature of the climate crisis, is such a tax reasonable? 4/

— Mangy Jay (@magi_jay) December 3, 2018

16/ Now, some analyses have indicated that Macron’s recent changes to the wealth tax, in combo w/ the new flat tax, may have contributed to people’s anger.

I’m not going to get into an in-depth discussion of the wealth tax b/c I don’t really have enough economic acumen to do so

17/ But, a few things to remember (none of this is in defense of the tax cut, so don’t @ me)

-cutting taxes in France is a different scenario than cutting taxes in the U.S.
-this is not the first time the tax has been changed. Presidents have gone back and forth on this for yrs

18/ -the justification for the tax cut was that businesses/investors were leaving France.

Macron slashes France's wealth tax in pro-business budget [subscr. required]

19/ Again, I don't know enough to discuss this in-depth. Below is a piece from Picketty arguing that cutting the wealth tax cut was a mistake. Plz share other analyses if you have them (fine w/ moderate sources, but no right-wingers, plz)

Suppression of the wealth tax: an historical error

20/ Alright, so that’s mostly the background for how the GJ protests originated, as far as I know. . .

But, plz remember, in addition to extant left-wing forces in France, there are also far-right forces who are very economically "populist" & also anti-immigrant.

21/ Now: who are the protestors? Well, they’re not all Gilets Jaunes, or, at least, they didn’t all start out that way. I believe there are also people demonstrating *against* climate change, for example. . . .There also appears to be some antifa/GJ overlap. . .

22/ And I've heard there is also a prominent racial justice group is apparently protesting adjacent to the Gilets Jaunes, though I do not know if they are protesting in unity w/ them. I’m sure there are many other groups & unaffiliated individuals as well. . . .

23/ Remember: France is a country that fosters a spirit of protest. I don’t want to minimize what is happening now, but it is generally unsurprising that multiple different groups w/ different interests are now protesting, either jointly or separately.

24/ So, there’s a lot of talk about whether or not the GJ's are right-wing or left-wing or neither. Many folks on here seem to think it is a left-wing movement. Perhaps b/c they are protesting Macron, a “centrist. . ."

25/ However, at this point in time, it seems to be inaccurate to consider the movement “left-wing.”

Polling suggests that the majority identify w/ the far-right (42%) or center-ish-right (16%), though some (20%) identify w/ the far-left.

Polls show many French sympathize with #GiletJaunes movement, but mostly the far right, and that “yellow vest” protestors themselves are largely comprised of far-right villagers and small townspeople pic.twitter.com/a20tDfFOtn

— Borzou Daragahi 🖊🗒 (@borzou) December 9, 2018

26/ &, yesterday, an “unofficial” list of demands from the Gilets Jaunes was released by a journalist. I personally would like to know more about the origin of this document. The GJs, as far as I know, don’t have unified leadership. So who wrote the list? (see next tweet)

27/

A new "unofficial" list of Gilet Jaunes demands here:
- cut taxes to 25% of GDP (so half current levels)
- better public services/massive hiring of civil servants
- Leave EU & NATO
- Default on public debt
- New constitution
- less immigration
- Scrap CFA Franc in W Africa (??) pic.twitter.com/BlhucXLyzm

— Stanley Pignal (@spignal) December 7, 2018

28/ This is essentially a far-right document. For example, it is pro-Frexit. It also mentions stopping immigration in the context of a “civilizational crisis.” Additionally, it’s also not particularly economically progressive, given that it proposes tax cuts for all citizens.

29/ So, what we know from polling, as well as this “unofficial” document, is that the Gilets Jaunes are comprised of mostly far-right protestors who are making far-right demands. I’m open 2 changing my mind on this if new info comes in

But, that's what the current evidence says

30/ Now, interestingly, “Gilets Jaunes” movements are now cropping up in other countries & many of them are far-right. Pro-Brexit protesters appear to have marched in yellow jackets in London.

31/ La Liberation (which is left-leaning) also reports that right-wingers are showing solidarity w/ the Gilets Jaunes in Serbia & Germany. Note that the "reasons" behind this protest-solidarity range from lowering carbon prices to limiting immigration. https://www.liberation.fr/checknews/2018/12/07/d-autres-pays-d-europe-ont-il-leur-mouvement-des-gilets-jaunes_1695931 …

32/ This photo, from an anonymous twitter account (thus not verified), appears to show GJ protesters in the Netherlands. Note the Q-An*n writing on the jacket.

33/ Then, of course, there is this:

Russian accounts fuel French outrage online

34/ So, overall, evidence points to the Gilets Jaunes as being primarily far-right at this moment in time. I can’t say whether they started that way or were high-jacked, or what. In other countries, solidarity protests have been right-wing/far-right.

35/ Some identify as left-wing, but, given the evidence above, I think it's very inaccurate at this time to call the movement left-wing in nature.

36/ Given that the evidence we have points to quite a few far-right affiliations w/ the Gilets Jaunes, I would urge left-leaning people to avoid fetishizing the movement, by, say, sharing images like this one:

37/ Overall, complex social movements are not typically amendable to idolization. There are some exceptions to this, but the Gilets Jaunes does not appear to be one. . . . .

38/ I think, especially given the far-right underpinnings, it's best to not see this protest as a kind of spontaneous combustion occurring in *isolated* response to Macron policies. There are deep historical/societal factors also at play here.

39/ Finally, you can oppose Macron, as well as his tax policies, w/out praising this particular movement. You can even say that people would have a right to be outraged, w/out praising this particular movement.

Basically, I'm trying to say: don't praise far-right movements.

40/ That’s it.

Again, I’m not claiming expertise here, so I would be open to discussion/correction, etc. from people who know more than I do.

I'm also open to changing my POV as new info comes in.

[PS 1] Oh, PS, and this is important.

Re: the 20% of Gilets Jaunes who identify as supporters of Melenchon: Melenchon is left-wing economically, but is also a nationalist. So, you might consider not praising these folks either.

Melenchon has said problematic things about immigration, refugees, etc. https://t.co/xh3W5XTJld pic.twitter.com/gWLLf6NyLY

— Mangy Jay (@magi_jay) December 7, 2018

[PS 2]

Here’s @emile_chabal, one of the brightest French historians working today, presenting the case for why the yellow vests movement has to be understood as a rightwing rebellion https://t.co/D4qzmBeJu7

— Anas hell-awat (@Marxthug) December 8, 2018

The Lesson for Us All

Me again. So that's the story. The GJ movement isn't entirely clean, it's not entirely dirty, and it's changing or being changed. Be careful what you say about it — it's very easy to be wrong — and do stay tuned.

Rebellions are often messy mixed affairs. In the U.S. recently, only the Sanders-led revolt was relatively clean, while the Trumpist version was mostly dirty, much more a mélange of good and truly evil.

Keep this in mind in 2020 and beyond. We're going to get the same revolt again, either led by the person we put in power, or led against the person we put in power. If that person is a Sanders or a Trump, she or he will lead it, down good paths or bad, all while fighting the corporate counter-revolt that will surely follow.

But if that person is an Obama or a Beto, a sweet-sounding betrayer of hopes and promises, the real revolt, led badly or well, will be against that person, with the neoliberal Democratic Party taking a problematic and indefensible position in defense.

Again, stay tuned. If the Democratic Party isn't taken over by the Sanders and the AOC's of the world, and very very soon, it really is over. The twin tsunamis — the revolt against wealth; global climate instability and crisis — which already wet our faces, are poised and ready to truly drown our world.

Mes centimes,

GP