The Daily Blue America Report-- #8

They should all retire together

Finally some good news for Ted Stevens! On returning home from his trial in Washington Stevens was told that Alaska law permits felons to run for federal office. In fact, as long as he isn't sentenced before Tuesday, he can even vote for himself! And he'll need every vote he can muster. "Like most people, I'm not perfect," Stevens told a throng of adoring recipients of wealth from the Lower 48 spread around through Stevens' earmarks.

Stevens has been kicked to the curb by both friend and for. McCain, who has always hated his guts, called on him to resign before the last juror had a chance to nod. He then forced Palin do the same, breaking with the Alaska Republican Party, which is still urging the faithful to vote for Uncle Ted. Many of the crooked Republicans who have been taking bribes from Big Oil funneled through Stevens' PAC-- particularly Republican senators in jeopardy of losing their seats Tuesday, like Mitch McConnell R-KY), Norm Coleman (R-MN), who is having his own spiraling out-of-control ethics scandal, Gordon Smith (R-OR) and John Sununu (R-NH)-- have hypocritically demanded their old partner in crime resign... immediately. Who's name is missing from this list? Well, check out which members of the Senate got the really big pay-outs from Stevens' money-laundering operation, The Northern Lights PAC and you will find Maine's most corrupt political hack, Susan Collins ($10,000 this year and $10,000 last time she ran). Maine's other senator, the honest, moderate one, Olympia Snowe, has joined her colleagues urging Stevens to resign. But not Collins, whose own PAC funneled $10,000 to Stevens, a kind of semi-legalistic way for politicians to avoid campaign finance laws.

And while Susan Collins is pledging her undying fealty to convicted felon Ted Stevens, her opponent, Tom Allen, one of the finest-- and most tested and proven-- public servants running for the Senate from anywhere, is being supported by Bill Clinton. President Clinton and Congressman Allen are old friends from the days they were both Rhodes Scholars at Oxford. Tens of thousands of Mainers were surprised when they picked up their phones tonight-- praying it wouldn't be another hysterical robocall from another of the far right GOP front groups flooding the state with negativity on behalf of Collins-- to find President Clinton's comforting voice urging them to vote for Tom.

"Hello this is President Clinton and I'm calling to urge you to support Tom Allen for United States Senate.  Barack Obama needs Democrats like Tom Allen in Washington in order implement his agenda of change to turn this economy around.

"Congressman Tom Allen opposes Bush's failed economy policy and is fighting for change: a new economic policy that focuses on the middle class, creates jobs in Maine, and supports small businesses. For Real Change support Tom Allen for US Senate on November 4."

That was especially refreshing after a day of dire warnings from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party that they intend to control Obama's agenda and the Democratic Party after Tuesday.

Conservative Democrats who've been a thorn in the side of liberal party leaders could grow into a major obstacle to Barack Obama's agenda if he is elected president.

Majority Democrats are positioned for big gains in next week's congressional election. But many of the new faces would join a growing chorus of "Blue Dogs" who often part from the party base on big issues like taxes and increasing federal spending.

That could set up a roadblock for Obama, who has promised to broaden health insurance coverage, start a new round of public works projects and improve early childhood education, among other things-- all initiatives that would require substantial government spending at a time of soaring deficits.

Ironically, it was Obama's radio ad for one of the worst of the Blue Dogs, John Barrow, a nominal Democrat from Georgia, that saved him from being defeated in a primary by state Senator Regina Thomas, who is an exemplary progressive. On substantive matters, Barrow has voted with the GOP 65% of the time and with the Democrats 35% of the time. And Barrow is only one of 16 nominal Democrats who have voted with the Repugs more frequently than with their own party. The others, from bad to worse, are: Zach Space (OH), Baron Hill (IN), Gene Taylor (MS), Harry Mitchell (AZ), Jim Matheson (UT), Chris Carney (PA), Heath Shuler (NC), Jason Altmire (PA), Dan Boren (OK), Brad Ellsworth (IN), Travis Childers (MS), Don Cazayoux (LA), Joe Donnelly (IN), Jim Marshall (GA) and Nick Lampson (TX).

Lately we've been mentioning how the DCCC is spending far more money on Independent Expenditures for conservative and corporate candidates than for grassroots and progressive candidates. Today I saw quite a few weighty endorsements come over the transom-- mostly for conservatives. Many of the best candidates across the country-- the hope of the progressive movement, have been snubbed by the Establishment Democrats over and over, as though they actually hope they lose. Today conservative business shill Mark Warner warmly endorsed fellow conservative Glenn Nye, while ignoring progressive candidates Judy Feder and Tom Perriello. Simultaneously Jim Webb sent out a last minute plea for 4 Democratic candidates for the Senate-- pointedly leaving out progressives-- and pleading for cash from a right-wing corporate shill like Bruce Lunsford (KY) and for right-of-center bad-news-Dems Kay Hagan (NC) and Ronnie Musgrove (MS) plus moderate Jim Martin (GA). Not a word about struggling progressives like Jeff Merkley (OR), Rick Noriega (TX), Andrew Rice (OK), or Tom Allen (ME).

Connecticut-04- On the other hand, Jim Himes did get a little help that should go a long way in the form of a radio ad by Barack Obama.

New York-25- Yesterday's NY Times reported that the Republican Party has given up on all but two of the congressional races in New York State, the others being hopelessly out of their reach. Dan Maffei is sure to win a seat he just missed out on in 2006. The only Blue America candidate in New York now facing a challenge is Eric Massa, who is leading in a tight rematch with Bush rubber stamp Randy Kuhl.

National Republican officials have decided to withhold financial support from all but two closely contested Congressional races in New York, as the party braces for the possibility that it could lose several more House seats in the state.

The decision to abandon much of the state came after internal party polls showed Republican candidates in at least three once-promising races falling behind their Democratic opponents, a party official briefed on the internal deliberations said.

As a result, Republican leaders are diverting money to candidates in other races in which party officials believe they have a greater chance of success, the official said.

The decision by national Republicans to focus on a smaller group of races underscores the degree to which the party is on the defensive not only in New York but also in New Jersey, Connecticut and many other states. The national party is short on cash and is being forced into the difficult position of deciding where to continue to fight-- and where to effectively surrender-- as the election enters the final days of campaigning.

“Tough decisions have to be made,” said Representative Peter T. King, a Republican from Long Island, who conceded that the party was seeking to minimize its losses. “You have to decide who comes off life support and who gets a massive infusion.”

Two of the races effectively being written off in New York are in districts currently held by Republican incumbents who are retiring at the end of the year-- the 25th Congressional District in the Syracuse region, now held by James T. Walsh; and the 13th District on Staten Island, where Vito J. Fossella is stepping down. Representative Fossella was found guilty in a Virginia court this month on a charge of driving under the influence of alcohol.

VIRGINIA-05- In a stunning and precedent-shattering move, the Danville Register & Bee has ended its career-long support for corrupt Bush rubber stamp Virgil Goode and urged voters to trade him in for Tom Perriello.

This newspaper hasn’t endorsed a Democrat for Congress since Virgil Goode was a Democrat. Since Goode’s first campaign for Congress in 1996, we have backed him in every election, defended him from what we thought was unfair criticism by challengers and wished for him a long career in Washington.

But today, the Danville Register & Bee endorses Tom Perriello for the 5th District seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

We haven’t left Virgil Goode. Virgil Goode has left us.

...We expect to receive great criticism for endorsing Perriello over Goode.

But our decision was born out of frustration with a career politician who has already told us he expects to be ineffective as Democrats gain more power in Congress. Just this year, Goode has voted against the tax rebate checks that people throughout the 5th District received this year and he voted against a financial rescue plan that even his own Republicans believed was necessary to stave off more serious economic problems.

If we send Goode back to Washington, how many more times will he vote against our interests? We can’t take that chance.

On Tuesday, it’s time to elect a young man of integrity, energy, faith and hard work. It’s time to send Tom Perriello to Congress.

Texas-10- Cook upgraded Larry Joe Doherty's chance of unseating Bush rubber stamp Michael McCaul... for the second time. McCaul, one of the least knowledgeable hacks in the whole Congress has refused to debate Doherty and over the past couple of months the district went from "safe Republican" to "likely Republican" to "leans Republican." McCaul has no get ground game and Doherty has been building one all year. The latest polling shows a virtual tie. A victory Tuesday for Larry Joe will be reason to celebrate-- for Texans and for all Americans. Watch him on local TV news yesterday explaining his ideas about bailing out big corporations.

California-04- Last night we talked about the soft-core porn robocalls Republican congressional candidate Zane Starkewolf has been using (illegally) in CA-01. Mike Thompson, the incumbent from that district was campaigning with Charlie Brown yesterday in CA-04. And Little Zane's buddy, Tom McClintock was also employing more illegal robocalls, which most people in Northern California refer to as nuisance calls. (McClintock, who lives in the L.A. suburbs doesn't know anything about northern California, so he isn't aware people don't like them-- or that they're illegal.) A couple weeks ago Charlie Brown called on McClintock to join him in swearing them off. "Robo-Dial phone calls are a nuisance and a deceptive campaign tactic typical of negative campaigns that would rather attack a person’s character than offer detailed solutions. I am calling on Tom McClintock to join me in a bi-partisan effort to conduct an above board campaign based on direct contact with voters-- not deceptive and annoying robo-calls." McClintock refused and instead launched another barrage of the calls, illegal because they violated laws requiring that they include a disclaimer identifying who paid for and authorized the campaign communication.

Another great SEIU TV spot-- this one on behalf of progressives in Ohio. Let's hope it rubs off on Vic Wulsin, the best candidate in the entire state and the one who is being pummeled the hardest by the GOP smear machine.



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The Daily Blue America Report-- #4

McCaul- to the right of Cheney, about to get some Texas Justice

Lots of great news today. Since we've covered the fortunate news from Alaska, let's go right to some awesome tidings from Oregon. KATU, via SUSA, is reporting that Jeff Merkley, a Democrat from the Wellstone wing of the party, "is pulling away from Gordon Smith in the race for Senate."

Jeff Berkley 49%
Bush rubber stamp Gordon Smith 42%
Dave Brownlow (Constitution Party) 5%
Undecided 4%

Looks like Brownlow is killing Smith's re-election chances. It's fitting Smith leave government at the same time as Bush. But Brownlow isn't the only independent running who has been helpful to a Blue America candidate. David Krikorian, the right-wing xenophobe running in southwest Ohio against Mean Jean Schmidt and Vic Wulsin has been eating into Schmidt's base. That's about to get worse. Another far right zealot, Tom Brinkman (anti-choice, anti-taxes, anti-sanity) just endorsed Krikoran. Polls that include Krikorian are showing a neck and neck race between Vic and Mean. (By the way, if you're thinking about donating to Vic's campaign, today is an especially good day to do it: her birthday. She was born in 1953 and the campaign suggested people send in $19.53.)

Let's skip down to... oops, I'm sworn to secrecy on where this bit came from. But it's a good one. In 2006 the Republican rubber stamp incumbent, a slug of a human being (there's a hint), beat his opponent, a conservative Democrat by 9% in early polling. This year early polling has been far more substantial and the slug is not up by 9%. He's down by 20%-- against a progressive Democrat and a real kick ass fighter. With all those hints, how could any regular DWT reader not figure out who we're talkin' about here?

Let's head north now to the district of one of our favorite incumbents, Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), who has been targeted by GOP front groups and hate organizations like Freedoms Watch. They are flooding her district with the slimiest ad campaign anywhere in the country. But with her polling numbers holding up nicely, that isn't enough. They do not want a fighter for working families in that seat; they want it back in the hands of a corporate shill, Jeb Bradley. And they given Jeb Bradley the cash he needs to hire the criminals who stole the 2002 New Hampshire Senate race that illicitly put John Sununu in office. Bradley has funneled over $90,000 into convicted felon-- now released from prison-- Chuck McGee's election stealing operation.

The huge Texas congressional delegation is a hotbed of the most reactionary vision of America anywhere on Capitol Hill. This year Blue America found only one Texas House race we wanted to get involved with-- Michale McCaul's bid for re-election in a gerrymandered masterpiece that sprawls from a piece of Austin to the suburbs of Houston, designed especially to disenfranchise Austin voters (by splitting the blue city into pieces where their votes could be diluted by red surroundings). But McCaul, whose father-in-law, the chairman of Clear Channel, bought him the seat, has been such a disaster as a congressman that even a red district like TX-10 seems to have had enough of him. His progressive opponent, Larry Joe Doherty has virtually caught up with him in the polling, with 4 points, less than the margin of error, separating them.

Today's Austin Statesman agrees that a defeat for McCaul, a rotten piece of "low hanging fruit," is Texas' best shot at turning a red district blue.

[W]ith the national mood turned fiercely against Republicans, some Democratic operatives believe they can win a seat that they haven't seriously contested since it was drawn in 2003.

The outcome of the 10th Congressional District race will also offer a glimpse of just how Republican Texas still is. Though Democrats have been making gains in the Legislature, Republicans have dominated races for statewide office for 12 years. A Doherty win would show that his party's resurgence, while far from complete, is further along than many would have guessed a few elections ago.

Whether Doherty can win will depend on how well he personally connects with voters, whether McCaul can distinguish himself from President Bush and whether Democrats in the Travis County part of the district can outmuscle Republicans closer to Houston.

..."Republicans are losing on the generic ballot, and polling for right track/wrong direction has never been worse," Karen Hanretty, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a memo Thursday.

Democratic enthusiasm is up, and that enthusiasm was fueled by unexpectedly high turnout in the party's March presidential primary.

About 109,000 10th District residents voted in the Democratic primary. Of those, almost 63,000 appear not to have voted in either party's primary in the past 16 years, said Democratic consultant Harold Cook, who offers occasional advice to Doherty's team.

"Never before have we been able to identify such a rich target full of low-hanging fruit," Cook said. "We know that they've already voted for Democrats, so they'll consider it again, and probably lean toward it again."

And we'll leave you with this to ponder: tomorrow morning at 6AM we'll be announcing a major endorsement for one of our East Coast candidates. Wanna take a guess? Hint: think someone with extremely clear vision for American working families.

Let me leave you with an ad from our pals at VoteVets. It's a TV spot that targets one of the worst members of the Senate, Georgia rubber stamp wingnut Saxby Chambliss, who looks like he may lose his seat to Jim Martin next week. It's not a Blue America race but we've got our fingers crossed that a decent Democrat will replace an absolutely odious Republican.

Have You Had Enough... Yet? Mean Jean Schmidt Is Still Disgracing Congress

Joe the Plumber seems to be all smoke and no fire in Ohio, Polling shows Obama leading McCain 51-42% statewide.

[T]he Republican ticket's emphasis on Joe the plumber-- the Ohio man who challenged Obama on his tax plan and who McCain and running mate Sarah Palin are trying to turn into a symbol-- is not paying huge dividends, according to the poll.

While 68 percent of Ohio respondents said they recognized Joe the plumber, only 6 percent said that Joe's story will make them more likely to vote for McCain. An additional 4 percent said the tale made them more likely to vote for Obama; and 85 percent were not affected.

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There's no breakdown-- at least that I've been able to find, for Ohio's GOP heartland, the south and southwestern part of the state, Ohio's second congressional district, home of Mean Jean Schmidt.

In 2006 less than 3,000 votes separated first-time challenger Vic Wulsin (D) and lunatic fringe incumbent Schmidt (R) in a district stetching out east from Cincinnati. In that race Mean Jean spent $1,935,564 and Dr. Wulsin spent $1,021,186. Keep in mind that OH-02 gave Bush 64% of its vote in 2004, the second highest, by 1%, in the state. This year, as of September 30, Mean Jean had raised $1,079,960 and Dr. Wulsin raised $1,447,873. A Momentum Analysis poll 2 weeks ago showed them in a dead heat, with nearly 30% of voters undecided.

It's a very Republican district-- but there's another right-wing candidate in the race, David Krikorian, and he's sucking up significant support directly from Mean Jean's base. Two years ago Blue America created a one minute musical ad that was very popular online, Have You Had Enough. This year, along with our partners at SaysMe.TV, we've just reprised the ad-- as a 30 second TV spot-- and you can put it on the air in the Cincinnati cable market. Yes, you; with no ad agency, no consultant, no media buyer... just you. Here's how:

Step one: Go to the Blue America SaysMe.tv site.

Step two: Select Cincinnati from the drop down menu

Step three: Select either of the two Mean Jean ads, the "Had Enough" one or the one about how Mean accepted a bunch of money from Big Oil and then voted for their agenda in Congress

Step three and a half: type in your name so that when the ad plays on the networks you select, your name will appear at the end of the ads

Step four: Ignoring the annoying request for a zip code, pick the TV network and the times you want your ads to run. (The minimum is $100.)

As you can see, ads range in price from $7 a spot (SciFi channel in the morning) to $23 for ESPN in prime time. Prime time on CNN is $19 an ad and for MSNBC it's $13 a spot. MTV and VH1 are only $12 a spot. Here's the 30 second version. It will end with "Paid For By... your name."

And The Winners Are...

Last night at midnight the People For the American Way competition ended with a bang. In all, 1,171 individuals donated close to $126,000. Half a dozen of the progressive Democrats on the list wound up with over $7,500:

Gary Peters (D-MI)- $33,857
Judy Feder (D-VA)- $31,687
Victoria Wulsin (D-OH)- $14,687
Dennis Shulman (D-NJ)- $13,769
Russ Warner (D-CA)- $9,259
Martin Heinrich (D-NM)- $8,959

Although Judy and Gary went back and forth over the past 10 days between first and second place, in the end it was Gary Peters who gets first prize, something he can surely use after Bush's fundraiser for the right-wing rubber stamp he's running against, Joe Knollenberg, this week.

After PFAW removed duplicate donors they announced that the second and third prizes (for most donors) went to Vic Wulsin and Dennis Shulman, each of whom is running against the worst member of Congress from their states, respectively Mean Jean Schmidt and Scott Garrett. Hopefully all of the candidates will win their contests in November. You can continue donating to their campaigns for the rest of the cycle.

Blue America Candidates Kicking Butt Today

Last night Mean Jean Schmidt appeared at a debate. She couldn't worm out of it but watching her performance one could certainly understand why she tried to. Claiming that she only became aware of our nation’s financial crisis a few weeks ago should probably disqualify her for many people right on the spot. What does she do in Washington if not look out for the interests of her constituents? She has voted for massive deregulation of everything and against tighter restrictions on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, when even a serial deregulator like John McCain was warning-- two years ago-- that
"if Congress does not act, American taxpayers will continue to be exposed to the enormous risk that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac pose to the housing market, the overall financial system, and the economy as a whole."

Last week she flip-flopped on the bailout and voted for it although most residents of OH-02-- including both her opponents-- feel that the bill was garbage which won't do anything to help the fundamental economic and financial problems of the country, problems Mean Jean's ideology have helped to bring to the fore. The latest polling, even before Mean's flip flop, shows her in a statistical dead heat with Vic Wulsin, much of her base eroding towards arch-conservative independent David Krikorian.

In fact, polling for Blue America candidates across the country is looking excellent. A second poll showing Larry Kissell with a serious lead over Robin Hayes came out yesterday. And while even more prominent Republicans in south-central Ohio have been announcing their support for Mark Schauer's bid to return mainstream representation to MI-07. a new poll shows that Schauer has opened a formidable ten point lead over Walberg. It showed a 4 point shift towards Schauer in the last 2 weeks and has him leading among independents by 12 points, 39 to 27%. Obama has also edged into a double-digit lead over John McCain in the district, leading 50 to 39%. Same with Eric Massa-- second poll, confirming a significant lead over Randy Kuhl, 51-44%.

All of these candidates are part of the People For the America Way House candidate contest that you can vote it. Please take a look and see if any-- or all-- of these candidates tickle your fancy.


UPDATE: THE ENEMIES OF HUMANITY HAVEN'T GIVEN UP YET

Yes, our candidates are polling well against the Bush rubber stamps trying to stay in Congress. But GOP front groups are on the attack with millions and millions of dollars. And even the small amount of money the NRCC has is being deployed strategically to save some of their most vulnerable extremists, nut cases like Tim Walberg (R-MI) and Steve Chabot (R-OH) and to attack two of the best Democratic freshmen, Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH) and Steve Kagen (D-WI).

Mean Jean Schmidt Forced To Debate Right After Her Yes Vote On The Wall Street Bailout/Giveaway

Vic Wulsin has finally trapped Mean Jean Schmidt-- like a cornered rat-- into a debate. It's tonight at 7pm at Anderson Center and it will be televised by WCPO. There will be 3 debaters, Dr. Wulsin, Mean Jean and another far right extremist, David Krikorian.

Ohio's second CD is dark red-- the PVI is R+13-- and if the district had a normal mainstream conservative representative she or he would be pretty safe. But they don't; they have extremist crackpot Mean Jean Schmidt. In 2006 it was a 51/49% win for Schmidt. She spent nearly two million dollars and Vic Wulsin spent just over one million and they were separated by less than 3,000 votes. This year they have raised virtually the same amount of money. And this year there's another factor that Saturday's Research 2000 poll missed: David Krikorian, who is appealing, strictly, to Schmidt's base. Polls that include him, like Momentum Analysis' survey last week, show a statistical dead heat between Vic and Mean Jean.

With M. Jean's hands tied from going too negative on immigration demagoguery because of McCain, Krikorian has the field to himself and is taking male white voters away from Mean. He's billing himself a "Reagan Conservative" and is eating into what she expected to be her margin.

Her yes vote on the Wall Street bailout on Friday could finish her off. She's now officially a flip-flopper and a case can easily be made that she put the interests of her fat cat campaign contributors ahead of the interests of middle class working families in Ohio. And, in fact, Vic's campaign moved quickly to explain to voters where she and Mean differed on the bailout. Vic made it clear that she would have voted NO had she been in Congress instead of Schmidt. This is from Friday's Politicker Ohio:

"While Vic Wulsin certainly thinks Congress has a responsibility to keep the economy running, the bill that the House voted on today was saddled with pork, included no offsets for tax incentives added by the Senate and no long term solution to fix Wall Street and prevent this kind of crisis from happening again," said Wulsin spokesperson Kevin Franck.

Although there's some more recent Mean Jean music clips, I'm thinking it's time to reprise an oldie but goodie from 2006:

Polls In Red States

This morning when asked why Obama is gaining momentum everywhere in the country while his own polling numbers are tumbling, McCain sputtered and groused to his buddies at Fox that "life is unfair." With support from voters solidifying around Obama's calm, measured approach-- and rejecting the McCain campaign's erratic and hysterical reactions to everything-- the battlegrounds for November have been shifting into "safe" Republican states like North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia and Florida. In fact, Florida Republicans are panicking. So are congressional candidates tied to McCain.

Recall that McCain has an unbroken record this year when it comes to coattails: three contested special elections (all in heavily Republican districts, "safe" seats in Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi) were won by Democrats when McCain's efforts on behalf of Republicans backfired badly. Polling news from around the country is looking gloomier and gloomier for the Republicans, even in areas they thought were safe for them. The NRSC has given up on races in New Mexico and Virginia where they once thought they could hold onto seats of retiring Republicans. This morning's Washington Post declared that the GOP's gradual decline in Virginia has turned into a free fall (And, by the way, this isn't just happening in the DC suburbs, as this Kos diarist-- click on the link-- makes clear when he explains the importance of bluegrass legend Ralph Stanley's endorsement of Obama.)

Long-serving members of Congress and the state legislatures are not only leaving office but also blasting their party on the way out. Just a few years after running his party's national congressional campaign effort, Rep. Tom Davis of Fairfax County is leaving Congress embittered by the Republicans' hard-right positions and frustrated that there appears to be no home for moderates who might appeal to suburban voters.

Virginia's GOP "gave me the middle finger," Davis said after party leaders maneuvered to hand its nomination for the retiring John Warner's U.S. Senate seat to former governor Jim Gilmore, rather than allow a primary between the hard-right Gilmore and the moderate Davis. "Anybody who compromises, you go back to your party base and you're an apostate. You're squishy. You're weak."

Two of Virginia's longest-serving GOP leaders, Sen. John Chichester of Stafford County and Del. Vince Callahan of Fairfax, left the legislature this year with harsh words for their party-- and both have endorsed Democrat Mark Warner in this fall's Senate race.

"I'm extremely distressed by the path it's taking," Callahan told me of the GOP in Virginia. "It could end up being a minority debating society. We can't be a party about immigrant-bashing or gay-bashing or any other bashing. We should be a party of fiscal responsibility, which is how I got into it."

Even worse was some of the startling congressional polling news that came in from around the country. Maybe they're hoping Mooselini will turn this around for them tonight, but it looks like the Republican brand is as toxic as astute prognosticators have been saying it was. Let's start in Texas, where Blue America-endorsee Larry Joe Doherty has been in an under the radar struggle with another lockstep, rubber stamp Bush millionaire, Michael McCaul, whose father-in-law, the Clear Channel CEO, bought him the seat after DeLay had the district gerrymandered to be safe for a garden variety Republican. That same district is no longer viewed as safe. New polling data shows him rapidly closing the gap with McCaul. Yes, Texas.

And look at North Carolina. In fact, more specifically, look at NC-08 in the south-central part of the state that became near and dear to many activists from all over America in 2006 when a stalwart working families supporter, Larry Kissell, came within 324 votes of dislodging weak and useless Bush rubber stamp Robin Hayes. New polling suggests that this year will not be close. A new Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner poll conducted September 28-29 shows Larry Kissell leading Representative Robin Hayes by 11 points, 54- 43%. Obama is also ahead of McCain by roughly the same margin in NC-08 and Democratic Senate Candidate Kay Hagan is leading Elizabeth Dole by 14 points (55%-41%). 8th District voters believe that Larry will do a better job on the economy than Hayes, who supported the job-destroying CAFTA bill, and that Kissell is more likely to stand up for North Carolina's workers.

Even in red, red Idaho, the Democratic house candidate Walt Minnick has pulled ahead of Republican far right extremist Bill Sali, 44-38%! And one of the sweetest polls of all came out of southern Ohio this morning where Vic Wulsin's momentum has caught up with rubber stamp incumbent Mean Jean Schmidt in OH-02. Momentum Analysis calls the race a dead heat with 16% of the voters still undecided. Vic's spokesperson, Kevin Franck, points out that the poll found that 85% of voters are worried that the economic crisis on Wall Street puts their families at risk.

"The economy is by far the most important issue on the minds of families in Southern Ohio and Jean Schmidt supports the same failed economic policies that have gotten us into this mess. Jean Schmidt has been a part of the problem in Washington; Vic Wulsin will be a part of the solution.
 
“Congresswoman Schmidt opposed tighter restrictions and oversight for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, both of whom failed and have already gotten billion dollar taxpayer bailouts, she voted against limiting high-cost mortgages for those who could not afford them and when she was in Columbus, she raised taxes on Ohio families just about every chance she got. Vic Wulsin thinks it’s time to make government in Washington accountable to the people again.”

Earlier today Congressional Quarterly changed its rating on two Michigan races from "leans Republican" to toss-up. Blue America candidates Gary Peters and Mark Schauer are now seen as winners against Republican right-wingers Joe Knollenberg and Tim Walberg. The fact that McCain has read the writing on the wall and decided to pull his faltering campaign out of Michigan entirely probably dooms the both of them.

The AFL-CIO's Richard Trumka explains why Obama isn't winning by double digits and why he should be and could and will be. Please watch this passionate, powerful beautiful speech:

How Many Seats Do The Democrats Stand To Pick Up In November?

We've written before about the 1936 congressional election. The Depression was raging, Democrats had been steadily building a majority since 1932, and Roosevelt was re-elected in a landslide. The Democrats only gained 5 seats (net) in the Senate (although Nebraska Republican George Norris quit the GOP and became an independent). But that left the Republicans with only 16 Senate seats. Over in the House the Democrats had a net gain of 12 seats, upping their total to 334 (76.7%), while the Party of Greed and Selfishness, rightly blamed for the Great Depressed, lost another 15 seats-- aside from the 12 that went to Dems, one to a Progressive Party candidate in California and two to the Farmer-Labor Party-- leaving them with a total of 88 members of the House (20.2%).

2008 isn't 1936... at least not yet. But today CNN reports that congressional polling numbers are showing strong Democratic gains in the offing. "Generic Democrats" are stomping "generic Republicans" again. The fact that all Republicans are generic and that the Democratic cause is furthered by incredible candidates who are anything but generic-- progressive leaders like Darcy Burner, Vic Wulsin, Alan Grayson and Dennis Shulman on the House side and Jeff Merkley, Tom Udall, and Andrew Rice on the Senate side-- greatly strengthens the Democrats' chances to make significant gains.

So which party has the upper hand in the fight for Capitol Hill?

The answer, according to a new national poll, appears to be the Democrats. In a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Tuesday, 56 percent of those questioned are backing the Democratic candidate for Congress, while 42 percent support the Republicans.

That's a change from immediately after the GOP convention, when the Democrats had only a 3-point lead over the Republicans, 49 percent to 46 percent.

According to this morning's Diageo/Hotline poll, Obama's numbers have continued to climb as voters focus on the economy. Can the Democrats, generically speaking, blow this? Of course they can; they're Democrats. They could get behind the Bush Regime bailout/giveaway for example. They would do them in.

Fortunately, many non-generic Democrats and Democratic candidates will not be following Hoyer down that particular corporate pathway to Hell. Democratic challengers have gas prices, health care, the mortgage crisis, Iraq, unemployment, inflation, the Wall Street meltdown, and corruption all breaking in their favor. Watch Steny Hoyer and Rahm Emanuel try to balance that out with boneheaded, self-serving fealty to corporate donors.

Reactions from Blue America candidates to the bailout have been strong and uniformly mindful of the best interests of working families, not of Wall Street executives. Today Vic Wulsin, the progressive Democrat running against clueless corporate shill Mean Jean Schmidt in southern Ohio, added her voice to the rising chorus of skeptics and reformers. She's not supporting the $700 billion boondoggle that way it currently stands. Her line in the sand is that it must contain adequate congressional oversight of the Treasury Department and that it must place restrictions executive compensation for companies who will benefit from the plan. She wants Congress to make sure that everyday Americans facing home foreclosure are given assistance long before anyone starts talking about golden parachutes.

“The politicians in Washington don’t seem to play the same rules we live by and now they are asking American taxpayers to pay for the mistakes of corporate executives on Wall Street. Making a smart investment to keep our nation’s financial sector up and running is the right thing to do, but it is not our responsibility to cover for the excesses and mismanagement of CEO’s... While Congress and the current administration have been asleep at the switch, Southern Ohio is facing record home foreclosure rates. Politicians in Washington put themselves first, put money first and put special interests first, but I will not support writing a $700 billion check to Wall Street without making sure government is accountable to the people in my district first.”

Darcy Burner is running against Washington state's most consistent corporate shill, Dave Reichert, who has taken money from every corporate interest-- from Big Oil to Big Banks-- and then voted for their interests instead of for the interests of his own constituents. He's infamous as one of Bush's worst rubber stamps in Congress. Today, Darcy explained, in great detail, to voters in suburban Seattle why she doesn't support the Wall Street bailout the way it stands now and what she would do instead.

Darcy and supporters (non-fat cats)

“Over the past decade, with the removal of protections that had been in place since the Great Depression, we abandoned all checks on bad behavior by banks. As a result, we face a financial crisis of historic magnitude. It should never have come to this.

“The Bush administration and its Republican allies enabled, encouraged and ignored the bad behavior on Wall Street that created this mess. Now they say that that without the largest taxpayer-funded bailout in human history -- at a cost of more than $2,000 for every man, woman, and child in the United States -- our economy is at risk of collapse.

“If we are going to bail out Wall Street to the tune of $700 billion or more, then taxpayers must get significant reforms and real protections in return. Congress needs to take the time to get this right. They should move forward in a calm and orderly way, and not be stampeded into endorsing a bad deal. First and foremost, we must not just hand over a blank check to an administration and a financial sector that has failed us. Again: no blank check.

“Instead, let's put in place reforms with real teeth. Any bailout plan must include provisions that address the following points:

1) We must protect taxpayers.

a. The financial institutions that made the poor decisions that created this mess should bear as much of the cost of their mistakes as possible, and taxpayers should be given a stake in the bailed out firms in proportion to the size of the bailout they receive. When these companies return to profitability, taxpayers must be able to recoup some or all of their investment.

b. The financial institutions must be held accountable for accurately representing the quality of the assets they’re unloading so that they cannot game the system. Mechanisms could easily be put into place to ensure that companies and their executives who misrepresent the quality of the assets they sell to the government are held accountable if those assets turn out to be of significantly inferior quality.

c. People who chose irresponsible risk should have prime responsibility for paying for the consequences of that risk. That means, for instance, that creditors of the financial institutions who made loans bearing especially high rates of return in the days leading up to the crisis should not necessarily recover all of their money at taxpayer expense.

2) We must not reward bad behavior. Any firm that takes advantage of the bailout must accept restrictions on out of control CEO pay. The taxpayers should not be on the hook for golden parachutes for failed executives – they have a right to know that the money they are handing over will not disappear into the pockets of the same people who created this mess in the first place.

3) We must help communities, and work to protect the value of the assets taxpayers are acquiring. If Wall Street deserves generous government assistance, then Main Street deserves a little help too. If we are acquiring sub-prime mortgages, the homes that provide the collateral for those loans retain more value if they are occupied than if they are abandoned. In addition, the blight of homes abandoned because of unrealistic mortgages drags down not only the homeowners in question, but whole neighborhoods and communities. Homeowners with delinquent mortgages should be offered renegotiated mortgages that will give them greater opportunity to stay in their homes.

4) We need accountability. Congress must have explicit oversight of bailout efforts. No unelected member of the administration should have sole authority over so much of the taxpayer’s money.

“If Congress implements these sorts of taxpayer protections, this bailout could end up having a positive effect on our economy in the longer term as transparency and accountability are restored and sensible regulation puts our economy back on a sustainable track. But let’s be clear: this is a sad moment for America. Our economy is likely to sink sharply lower now for a time. As a result, thousands of Americans will lose their jobs through no fault of their own. Trillions in wealth held by ordinary people in the form of home value and investment value will be erased. Let's make sure we take the appropriate actions now so this never happens again.

“And finally, while this crisis is not a time for excessive partisanship, I would point out that Congressman Reichert and I have a basic philosophical difference on these issues. Time and again, Congressman Reichert has supported the economic policies of the Bush administration that have put us in this mess. For instance, he voted for the misconceived 2005 Bush Bankruptcy Bill that, as BusinessWeek pointed out last year, is a major factor in driving up the foreclosure rate and has made the housing slump worse, thus contributing to our current difficulties.

"We need change, not more of the same. We need a government that stops focusing on showering favors on the wealthy and powerful corporations, and instead does its job by protecting the interests of the people of this country. I will be that sort of representative.”

Like I said, neither Vic Wulsin nor Darcy Burner is a generic Democrat. None of the candidates endorsed by Blue America are, and if you'd like to help make sure Vic, Darcy, and other Democrats like them get into Congress in November, our Blue America ActBlue page makes it very easy to do that.

Walls Are Closing In On Mean Jean Schmidt-- From All Sides

Blue America has been working so long-- over 3 years now-- on helping Vic Wulsin get her message out, that I felt like I've know her forever. But last weekend I met her for the first time. Southern California liberal icons, Hilda Solis and Linda Sanchez, along with 9 other local congresswomen, threw a fundraiser for a diverse group of women congressional candidates-- from Blue America progressives like Darcy Burner (D-WA) and Debbie Cook (D-CA), to corporate hacks from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party, like Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ) and Christine Jennings (FL). It was positively fascinating to hear all those women speaking one after the other and I was so happy to see that the progressives were so much better, not just substantively, but also stylistically, than the Republican-lite candidates.

It will be no surprise to anyone who has followed Vic's many live blog sessions at FDL to hear that she was one of the outstanding speakers of the day, along with Annette Taddeo, Darcy Burner and Debbie Cook. She spoke in a very down to earth way about her field of expertise, public health policy, an area many current members of Congress are saying will be drastically better served if she is elected in November. One of those members is a senior Democratic leader, John Murtha (D-PA). And Murtha is going further than just praying for a Vic electoral victory.

According to this afternoon's CongressDaily Murtha has offered to help Vic raise some real money in her fight against corporate shill, Mean Jean Schmidt, a somewhat embarrassing and deranged wingnut who once called Murtha, a decorated Marine and the military's best friend in Congress, a coward. (Schmidt, on the floor of Congress, embarrassing her entire caucus, except some closet queen-- either Foley or Dreier-- who asked her to marry him, said that she had talked to a constituent and that "He also asked me to send Congressman Murtha a message, that cowards cut and run, Marines never do.")

A statement from Murtha's office says he "believes that Dr. Wulsin is a terrific candidate... Her experience in public health and opposition to the Republican war in Iraq will greatly benefit both her constituents and the Congress." Wulsin's communications director, Kevin Franck, said Murtha had said "he really likes Vic and looks forward to serving in Congress with her." In September, that assistance will come by way of not one, but two fundraisers-- one scheduled in the Cincinnati-area district for Sept. 14, and another to be held in Washington in the first few weeks after Labor Day. Schmidt narrowly defeated Wulsin 50-49 percent two years ago and Wulsin is back for a rematch.

Meanwhile, insider sources say that when Congressman Dean Heller (R-NV) told the Las Vegas Review-Journal that the Republican Party needed to "clean house," he was talking about some of the Class of '94 and about Jean Schmidt who most members of Congress consider a lunatic fringe sociopath.

[T]he newsmaking began when Heller said the Republican Party needs to “clean house” and “the next couple of election cycles are going to do that.” In remarks to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, he said some Republicans who rode a conservative wave to office in 1994 “came to change Washington, and Washington changed them.”

...“We’re seeing a lot of housecleaning because people are disenchanted with what Republicans are doing,” [a club for Growth spokeswoman] said. Republicans no longer can be taken seriously as stewards of fiscal conservatism, and corruption scandals still mar the party name. “They’ve abandoned their principles.”

Even Rep. Tom Cole, the Oklahoma congressman leading the Republican effort to win House seats this fall, said, “We don’t disagree with what he’s saying.”

Many Republicans were offended thinking he was talking about them-- since his unflattering description fits so many of them, but once word got out that he was talking about Mean Jean, everyone just shrugged and saw it all made sense. “In a way, he’s right,” Zach Wamp (R-TN) said earlier this week. “The status quo has got to go.” Heller's Democratic opponent, Jill Derby agrees too-- and insists that it isn't just Mean Jean who needs to be swept out of the House but Heller as well. And all I can say is Amen, to that! And if you'd like to help Vic Wulsin clean out one small part of what's wrong in Washington, please visit the Blue America ActBlue page. It never closes.

SOUTHWEST OHIO ISN'T WAITING FOR THE DCCC-- THEY WENT FROM RED TO BLUE ON THEIR OWN

Earlier we looked at who the DCCC did endorse this week. What we left out, though, is who they didn't endorse. In yesterday's Hill Aaron Blake wonders why the DCCC's Red to Blue Program is ignoring Vic Wulsin again.

Democrat Victoria Wulsin came within 3,000 votes of defeating Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio) in 2006 and is taking another shot this year, but she’s still got something to prove to national Democrats.

Unlike every other near-miss rematch candidate, Wulsin has not yet been named to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) Red to Blue program.

...Wulsin, a physician, is hardly the only candidate to attempt a comeback after losing narrowly in 2006. Ten of the first 25 Democrats named to the list were repeat candidates who lost by six points or fewer in 2006.

Schmidt defeated Wulsin 50-49 in 2006. Wulsin won a competitive primary March 4 to earn the rematch.

Wulsin spokesman Kevin Franck was critical of the DCCC, and cast doubt on whether national Democrats know what is happening on the ground. He pointed to recent gains in Democratic registrations and Wulsin’s outperforming in her district of Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in 2006.

“I’m not sure I understand the D-trip’s thinking, completely,” Franck said, adding: “Interacting with the D-trip and the national party organizations, when you get to the highest levels of decision-making, where the choices are made about which list a race goes on, there seems to be a lot of mystery surrounding the metrics they’re using.

“I think we have a very clear case. We have an incredibly unpopular incumbent in a district that’s not a Republican stronghold anymore. Vic has been running for two and a half years now. Her name ID is much higher than it was. We have more money than before.”

But while the DCCC fiddles around with old Emanuel/Stalinist techniques for eliminating grassroots progressives like Howard Howard Shanker (D-AZ), Steve Harrison (D-NY) and Diane Benson (D-AK), Ohio has changed right under their noses. OH-02 was once considered a firm Republican stronghold. The last few years of Bush and Schmidt has changed that entirely.

New data from Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Bruner's office indicate that there are 126,739 Democrats in the district and 121,660 Republicans. Since March 4, 2008, Democratic registration has risen 129% with the most populated counties, Hamilton, Clermont and Warren, experiencing the most significant gains. In Hamilton County there were nearly twice as many Republicans as Democrats before this year's primary. Now, Democrats outnumber Republicans by almost 10,000 voters in the district's population center.

"After the March 4th primary, we knew that a greater number of Democratic ballots were pulled than Republican ballots, but now it is clear that the entire character of the district has changed," said Wulsin Campaign Field Director David Margolis. "Democrats now represent 51% of party-affiliated voters in the second district."

"The number of committed Democrats in the second district has more than doubled since March, turning what had been an overwhelming Republican advantage into a Democratic majority." Margolis added. "All momentum is on the side of Democrats whose registration numbers have increased exponentially this year."

Under Ohio law, counties are required to report voter registration data to the Secretary of State's office once a month. Data from Warren County were obtained by the Warren County Democratic Party from the board of elections. 10 precincts in Warren County split votes between the 2nd and 3rd congressional districts.

The DCCC will have that all figured out by November. Meanwhile, Vic Wulsin deserves the support of grassroots Democrats even if the power-hungry and corrupt insiders wouldn't--or don't want to-- recognize an opportunity if it was sitting on their heads. The Democratic insiders club want as many go-along-to-get-along shills as they can find-- anti-Uprising conservatives like John Barrow, Tim Mahoney, Chris Carney, Ann Kirkpatrick, Michael McMahon-- to stuff into their caucus so they don't have to do anything controversial. Strong-minded independent thinkers like Vic Wulsin scare the bejesus out of them. Those are the kinds of representives that are good for the rest of us.

BLUE DOGS AND OTHER REACTIONARY DEMOCRATS ALREADY UNDERMINING OBAMA?

[To actually read the chart, click on it to enlarge.]

If you're a regular DWT, reader you certainly are no stranger to the serial treachery of the Blue Dogs and Rahm Emanuel coalition in the House. These putative Democrats, who frequently vote with the GOP to frustrate progressive policies, tend to represent corporate special interests-- from whom they get huge legalized bribes, called campaign donations-- instead of the interests of workers and consumers. In this way they are very much like the Republicans they so frequently make common cause with.

The chart above doesn't show the 10 least loyal Democrats, only 9. The reason for that is that the very worst Democrat, Louisiana freshman Don Cazayoux, has voted so overwhelmingly with Republicans that he's down in the GOP segment of the scorecard, far from even Dixiecrats like Jim Marshall (GA), John Barrow (GA) and Nick Lampson (TX), who regularly rubber stamp Bush on his Iraq agenda, on health care, on energy policy, on civil liberties and on issues from warrantless wiretaps to the dismantling of the rule of law.

Several of these semi-Democrats, particularly Rahm Emanuel puppet Heath Shuler (NC), went so far as to loudly suggest opposing the election of Nancy Pelosi as House Speaker. Many have joined Republicans in procedural maneuvers to help move forward the Republican partisan political agenda of embarrassing their Democratic colleagues on hot button issues. In other words, these guys, and other Blue Dogs, are not team players-- unless you're talking about the Bush-Cheney team.

And today's Hill includes a report on how most of the Blue Dogs have already started undermining Barack Obama. Reactionary Democrats like Charlie Melancon (LA), Charlie Wilson (OH) and Nancy Boyda (KS), have made it clear that they're not on the Obama team. Ironically, one of the worst and slimiest of the Blue Dog Dixiecrats, John Barrow, who is often the Democrat most likely to slavishly follow the Bush agenda, is trying to pass himself off as an Obama booster. Why would Barrow do that after spending years voting for the GOP agenda? Simple. He is being challenged in a Democratic primary July 15 by an admired progressive African American state senator, Regina Thomas-- and in a district where the majority of primary voters are African Americans, many of whom wonder why their congressman has been supporting a corporate agenda instead of their own.

On a day when Hillary has signaled-- clearly-- that she's finally ready to give up her race for the presidency and get behind Obama, some of her most right-wing supporters are still dragging their feet.

For their part, Clinton supporters said they would be open to talking with Obama about his coming general election campaign, but many said they were either not ready to switch sides or were uncertain whether the Obama campaign would be inclined to offer them roles.

For example, Ellen O. Tauscher of California, chairwoman of the New Democrat Coalition, said she doubted she would be asked to put her Silicon Valley contacts to use for the top of the ticket. “That role will probably fall to either Zoe Lofgren or Anna Eshoo,” Tauscher said, referring to two longtime Obama supporters from California. “We’ll see what happens.”

UPDATE: THE WAY DEMOCRATICS RUNNING FOR CONGRESS SHOULD RESPOND TO OBAMA'S WIN

This morning Vic Wulsin who is running in a heavily Republican suburban, exurban, and rural southern Ohio district-- where recent polls show her pulling ahead of clueless Bush dead-ender Mean Jean Schmidt-- sent out a statement on her support of Obama that is quite different from what we're hearing from the nefarious Blue Dogs. Vic:

"Our nation and our party are blessed to have leaders like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. The Democratic primary has energized and inspired millions of Americans and made our party stronger. Now that Senator Obama has enough delegates to secure the nomination, I pledge to support him in any way I can.

“I have always said that Ohio’s families will be my first priority in Congress. When it comes to the issues that matter most to Ohio’s families, it is clear that we cannot afford to spend four more years in a George Bush economy. That is the message I plan to deliver to voters in Portsmouth, Piketon, Waverly, West Union and all over Ohio’s second congressional district."