There's Only So Much We Can Do-- But We Do Need To Do It: State Of The Races

I think Obama and his campaign are pretty smart and that they're going to win the election in November. I think it goes beyond just how atrocious the alternative is. Four more years of what we've just been through doesn't seem tenable. It's almost like a challenge to fate (or God): "send the exact ten plagues from the Buy Bull-- and in the right order-- and then we'll believe you." I don't think it'll come to that. But what do I know? No more than anyone else who reads the blogs and the looks at the polls. I have no involvement with the Obama campaign. If he listened to me, he would have picked Hillary as his running mate. If he listened to me he would have voted against FISA. If he listened to me he would offer a straight-up, easy to understand, single-payer health care plan. But I'm sure he's got smart people around him and they can pull this off. I saw this new ad they're running today. It defines "change" better. I like it; a lot. Watch:



Still, all this polling has been making me queasy and uncomfortable. This is where I watch the polling everyday. I think today's the first day I ever saw McCain ahead in both popular vote and electoral votes. But, like I said, I have no involvement in the Obama campaign. I just trust them that they've got a plan to turn this all around for... us?

On the other hand, what I have been involved in-- what I feel we can impact-- are congressional races. And today's polling numbers were a big letdown too. The generic Democrat is no longer 15 points ahead of the generic Republican. Now the generic Democrat is just 3 points ahead.

The new USA Today/Gallup measurement of generic ballot preferences for Congress casts some doubt on the previously assumed inevitability of the Democrats' maintaining control of Congress.

Until now, the dark shadow cast by George W. Bush's widespread unpopularity has suppressed Republican Party identification nationwide, as well as voters' willingness to support the Republican candidate running for Congress in their district.

Now that the symbolic leadership of the party is shifting away from Bush and toward the suddenly popular Republican presidential ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, things may be changing. This shrinks Bush's shadow over the Republicans, revealing more of the Democrats' own shadow stemming from high disapproval of Congress. The key question is how much of this is temporary because of the tremendous bounce in support for the Republicans on many dimensions coming right off of their convention. The degree to which the Republican bounce is sustained, rather than dissipates, in the weeks ahead will determine whether the 2008 race for Congress could in fact be highly competitive, rather than a Democratic sweep.

I don't know how many seats that takes out of play. But I do know one thing: Blue America has not endorsed a single generic Democrat. I always figured that if I was wrong about Obama, that if they really aren't as smart as I assumed they are and that they blow it, at least we'd have an overwhelmingly Democratic Congress to keep McCain in check. That's what Blue America has been working towards since we started up around three years ago. In that time, we've raised around $1.3 million from online donations. We helped elect 10 long-shot House members and three new senators. This year we have 5 Senate candidates and 22 House challengers who we have been raising money for. Yesterday we celebrated when the DCCC added 3 more of our House candidates-- Annette Taddeo, Sam Bennett and Alan Grayson-- to their Red to Blue program, while recognizing Russ Warner's and Larry Joe Doherty's campaigns as Emerging Races.

As important as it is to elect Obama-- and, I know you wouldn't even be reading DWT if you didn't think it is-- and as important as it is to give the Democrats strong majorities in the House and Senate, that isn't what Blue America is really all about. We're the "better Democrats" PAC. Sure, I hope the Democrats elect all their mediocre-- or worse-- candidates and hold the House. But you're not going to ever see Blue America asking for support for anti-choice Democrats or Democrats who want to perpetuate the war or who do the bidding of Big Oil or who abandon working families for the corporate special interests.

And as bad as that little Gallup chart (above) looks, the internal polling numbers I'm seeing from our progressive candidates' campaigns are great. Yesterday the Benenson Strategy Group reported that Jeff Merkley had pulled ahead of Bush rubber stamp Gordon Smith in the crucial Oregon Senate race. Tom Allen still has a long way to go but he has steadily been gaining on Susan Collins in Maine. Mark Begich has maintained his lead of corrupt Alaska incumbent Ted Stevens.

In the House races we've seen great numbers, even in some of the heavily Republican districts like CA-04 where Charlie Brown is outpolling Tom McClintock. In NM-01, a Democratic-leaning district where the Republican incumbent, Heather Wilson, made a failed play for the Senate, progressive Democrat Martin Heinrich is beating right wing extremist Darren White strongly (51-46%). Watch Martin's new ad. Effective messaging from smart candidates, like him (and Alan Grayson) is helping to keep them ahead of the generic Democrats.

Polling is expensive and House candidates don't do many-- and when they do, they sometimes keep the results to themselves so that their opponent gets a big shock in November. One of our Blue America candidates just finished such a poll that showed his under-the-radar race progressing very strongly with him already beating the Bush rubber stamp incumbent by 4 points. The public congressional polling is available at House Race Tracker and I scan it daily.

I can't emphasize enough how important it is to elect strong progressive leaders to Congress-- no matter what happens in the presidential race. If you can afford to donate, please take a look at our Blue America page and see if there isn't a candidate-- or a few candidates-- who you would like to help make a difference. And no matter who you give to, can you please add a little something to Tom Perriello? He's a fantastic candidate, running against a corrupt, reactionary bigot, Virgil Goode, and Blue America really hasn't stepped up to the plate for him yet. Here's a guest post Tom did at DWT in February.