Trump's Wrong Decisions Are Bringing On A Depression

Trump claims he inherited a lousy economy from Obama and made it the best economy in the world. That's a double lie-- Trump inherited a very decent economy from Obama and it kept improving until Trump tried skewering it further for the rich at the expense of the working poor-- and by the time Trump made every wrong decision about confronting the pandemic, a recession was baked into the cake. Will voters understand this? Probably enough of them will.

I guess you know there are two economies right now-- one for the labor force that's in a deep recession, likely a depression, and one the management class and people living on passive income-- wealthier people-- that just keeps growing, thanks to the Fed pumping money into the financial markets and to their unlimited ability to print money. Yesterday Wall Street soared again-- up xx points. No one ever mentions that only 5 stocks on the S&P 500 are doing all the work and the other 495 stocks are all down by an average of 3%. (Pam and Russ Martens at Wall Street on Parade added another unsettling aspect yesterday: An Unprecedented 1,640 CEOs Departed in 2019; Now Execs Are Dumping Stock at Highest Pace Since 2006. "The number of CEOs that did not leave on their own accord last year was 101 out of the 1,640," they reported. "According to the study, 15 CEOs left over allegations of professional misconduct; 20 left amid a scandal, 'typically under investigations for financial wrongdoing or other legal issues'; 24 saw their positions terminated; 39 left due to a merger or acquisition; 3 left due to bankruptcy... When an outsized number of CEOs decide to cash out their stock options, grab their golden parachutes, and flee their corner offices-- something smells. On top of that fishy smell comes a report from TrimTabs Investment Research that corporate insiders have reaped more than $50 billion in stock sales since May, putting insider selling on a pace not seen since 2006-- two years before the stock market and economic crash of 2008.)

A blunter instrument for measuring the economy are unemployment and eviction statistics, Yesterday the Department of Labor reported that another million American workers filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week. There are now around 27 million Americans getting some kind of jobless assistance. With the GOP blocking the $600 supplemental claim for unemployed workers, the economy is going to soon start feeling billions dollars light-- unless more workers are forced back into COVID-unsafe jobs, which is exactly what the GOP is hoping for by denying the benefits.

The Aspen Institute reported earlier in the month on the COVID-19 Eviction Crisis, which has between 30 and 40 million American renters at risk of eviction. A team of reporters wrote that the U.S. "may be facing the most severe housing crisis in its history. According to the latest analysis of weekly US Census data, as federal, state, and local protections and resources expire and in the absence of robust and swift intervention, an estimated 30–40 million people in America could be at risk of eviction in the next several months. Many property owners, who lack the credit or financial ability to cover rental payment arrears, will struggle to pay their mortgages and property taxes and maintain properties. The COVID-19 housing crisis has sharply increased the risk of foreclosure and bankruptcy, especially among small property owners; long-term harm to renter families and individuals; disruption of the affordable housing market; and destabilization of communities across the United States."

This chart shows eviction risk by state. Risks are lowest in Vermont and highest in states filled with morons who keep voting for politicians who bring them hardships, fools living in deep red Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina, Oklahoma and Tennessee.

Significant loss of rental income during the COVID-19 pandemic creates financial peril and hardship for renters, small property owners, and communities. Without rental income, many landlords may struggle to pay mortgages and risk foreclosure and bankruptcy. The National Consumer Law Center predicts that 3 million homeowners, or roughly 5%, will have significantly delinquent mortgages by early 2021. Currently, 44% of single-family rentals have a mortgage or some similar debt. Sixty-five percent of properties with 2 to 4 units and 61% of properties with 5 to 19 units have a mortgage. Foreclosure can lead to a lack of maintenance, urban blight, reduced property values for neighboring properties, and erosion of neighborhood safety and stability. Without rental income to pay property tax, communities lose resources for public services, city and state governments, schools, and infrastructure, and can expend significant resources managing or disposing of properties acquired through tax foreclosure.

The impact of an eviction on families and individuals is even greater. Following eviction, a person’s likelihood of experiencing homelessness increases, mental and physical health are diminished, and the probability of obtaining employment declines. Eviction is linked to numerous poor health outcomes, including depression, suicide, and anxiety, among others. Eviction is also linked with respiratory disease, which could increase the risk of complications if COVID-19 is contracted, as well as mortality risk during COVID-19. Eviction makes it more expensive and more difficult for tenants who have been evicted to rent safe and decent housing, apply for credit, borrow money, or purchase a home. Instability, like eviction, is particularly damaging to children, who suffer in ways that impact their educational development and well-being for years.

The public costs of eviction are far-reaching. Individuals experiencing displacement due to eviction are more likely to need emergency shelter and re-housing, use in-patient and emergency medical services, require child welfare services, and experience the criminal legal system, among other harms.

The eviction crisis and its devastating outcomes are entirely preventable. Policy interventions at the national, state, and local levels could avoid many of the devastating costs outlined above... [W]ithout federal financial assistance, any intervention will be a stopgap at best and may fail to prevent the eviction crisis and its collateral harm.

The most comprehensive policy proposals include a nationwide moratorium on evictions and at least $100 billion in emergency rental assistance. Combining this assistance with an extension of federally enhanced unemployment insurance for displaced workers would provide additional relief for renters. Responses like these could neutralize the eviction risk outlined in this report, eliminating the public and private costs of mass evictions that result from the pandemic. More importantly, they could prevent millions of people in America from experiencing unfathomable hardship in the months and years ahead. These solutions have passed the US House of Representatives two times, and have companion legislation in the Senate.

Similarly, studies have shown a civil right to counsel in eviction cases can deliver significant benefits for tenants and landlords. While exact figures vary by jurisdiction, tenants with counsel experience improved housing stability-- often by remaining in their home, but alternatively by obtaining additional time to relocate, avoiding a formal eviction on their record, and accessing emergency rental assistance or subsidized housing.  Representation also leads to lower default rates and more fairly negotiated resolutions with landlords that limit disruption from displacement and ensure the rights of all parties are exercised. Other policies, such as eviction record sealing and restrictions that preclude property owners from basing tenant eligibility on eviction records, can prevent the longer-term harm that comes from eviction.

Given the incredibly high cost of evictions to renters, landlords, and communities, a wide range of policy interventions would provide significant cost avoidance for state and local government across the US.

Writing for Bloomberg News yesterday, Noah Buhayar, asked half a dozen key questions about evictions and attempted to answer them as the country hurtles towards an eviction crisis of historic proportions.

1- How many people could face eviction?

He comes up with 30 million, citing that same Aspen report but acknowledges it could be more like 40 million. Absent significant federal help that the GOP is absolutely unwilling to provide, the country "is heading for a massive wave of housing displacement and insecurity. More people will double up with family or end up homeless."

2. Will this all happen at once?

He doesn't think so and wrote that "It may take a few months for evictions to ramp up... The federal moratorium expired on July 24, and landlords had 30 days to notify tenants if they wanted to evict them, meaning Aug. 24 was the earliest date at which the floodgates could open. As of the end of July, 30 states lacked state-level protections against eviction during the pandemic. But even in states where there are bans, they do little to clear people’s debts. Many now owe so much in back rent that they won’t be able to catch up, pushing landlords to evict them when restrictions lift.

3. What's bring done to avert this?

Trump's lame and pointless attempt to show he cares earlier this month "didn’t authorize any specific action. Real relief would have to come from Congress, and that means money-- lots of it. House Democrats have passed a plan that would provide $100 billion in rental assistance and ban evictions" but Republicans are eager to show the working class they are the party of cruelty and refuse to be anything at all.

4- Why would a landlord evict someone at a time of high unemployment?

"Landlords," he reminded his readers, "need to collect rent to cover their expenses, including mortgage payments and property taxes. Many also pay for utilities. Keeping non-paying tenants around can incur operating costs without generating any revenue. Property owners also worry that letting a renter live in a unit for free or reduced rent could encourage other tenants in a building to withhold some of their payments. Landlords may also be betting that they can fill empty units. Going into the pandemic, there was a severe shortage of affordable rental housing across the U.S. that was driving up rents faster than incomes. Vacancy rates were at decades-long lows.

5- Who gets hurt?

As usual, Blacks and Latinos much more than white people.

6- Is this a U.S.-only problem?

It isn't but most governments are handling it much better than Trump. Big surprise!

An aside: according to Nielsen's ratings, 14.1 million people watched Trump's lies-filled screed Thursday night, quite a few less than the 17.5 million who had watched Biden's the week before. Trump's 3 biggest markets were West Palm Beach, Memphis and Nashville. Biden's had been New York City, San Francisco and West Palm. (More people watched Biden than Trump in West Palm.)

Wrapped In His Flag And Carrying A Cross... by Nancy Ohanian

Desperate House Republicans Are Spending Millions To Defend Vulnerable Incumbents, Money They Planned To Use To Attack Democrats

This is a Republican ad-- but who will it help and who will it harm?

The Kevin McCarthy-controlled Congressional Leadership Fund went into the 2020 cycle with some kind of delusion that they would be able to go on the offensive and win back the seats they lost in 2018 and thereby the House majority. At some point they appear to have stopped drinking the ayahuasca that Bolsonaro gave them and realized they need some paddles to get back down shit's creek before it's too late. They're not winning back any of those seats until 2024. Now there's still a massive anti-red wave and McCarthy has ordered them to start playing defense.

Politico's Ally Mutnick reported Monday morning that the PAC just dumped another $45 million into TV and digital ads in 40 districts, doubling their investment in the cycle so far-- but much of it to defend hysterical House Republicans who see their careers slipping away.

Ironically-- but not surprisingly-- virtually all of their incumbent Democratic targets are from the Republican-wing of the House Democrats, the ones who vote most frequently with the GOP on crucial votes, which makes them vulnerable to attack. Every one of their targets has an "F" score from ProgressivePunch (except Debbie Mucarsel-Powell who has a "D" instead of an "F"):

• Kendra Horn (Blue Dog-OK-- $3.6 million) R+10
• Ben McAdams (Blue Dog-UT-- 3.1 million) R+13
• Anthony Brindisi (Blue Dog-NY-- $4.9 million) R+6
• Xochitl Torres Small (Blue Dog-NM-- $4 million) R+6
• Joe Cunningham (Blue Dog-SC-- $3.1 million) R+10
• Elaine Luria (New Dem-VA-- $2.8 million) R+3
• Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (New Dem-FL-- $2.7 million) D+6
• Susie Lee (New Dem-NV-- $1.9 million) R+2
• Harley Rouda (New Dem-CA-- $600,000) R+4
• Jared Golden (Blue Dog-ME-- $250,000) D+2

They are also spending against New Dems Lizzie Fletcher in Houston, Colin Allred in Dallas, Abby Spanberger in Virginia and Abby Finkenauer and Cindy Axne in Iowa.

But McCarthy's SuperPAC is also spending to protect some Republican districts once thought to be safe, like Montana’s at-large district and an open GOP-held seat on Long Island.

...[M]ost of the new markets added in the second wave of reservations cover defensive targets. CLF plans to book $3.2 million in Dallas and $500,000 in deep-red Montana, where Democrats are targeting two open GOP-held seats; and $775,000 in Cincinnati where Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH) faces another stiff reelection challenge after turning aside a well-funded opponent last cycle.

The group has also set aside $1.9 million to defend retiring Rep. Pete King’s (R-NY) seat on Long Island-- where the Democratic candidate has a huge cash advantage and polling shows a tightening race.

The new round of TV ad spending comes amid increasing concern among some Republicans that President Donald Trump’s sinking suburban numbers could send them deeper into the House minority. There is a contingent in the party who have urged GOP outside groups to prioritize incumbents and open seats.

...Democrats will be able to go to toe-to-toe with that kind of spending. The incumbents in those seats have massive cash-on-hand advantages over their challengers, and they will also receive help from Democratic groups. House Majority PAC, congressional Democrats’ flagship outside group, is also flush with cash and has reserved $75 million so far.

And the buys do set CLF in a position to play defense in as many as 13 seats, including those held by Chabot and Reps. Jim Hagedorn (R-MN), Mike Garcia (D-CA), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa), Rodney Davis (R-IL), Don Bacon (R-NE) and Scott Perry (R-PA), as well as five open seats in Texas, New York, Georgia and Montana.

Texas is set to host a slew of competitive House races this cycle, but CLF notably has not booked in the San Antonio market, which covers the open West Texas swing seat held by retiring GOP Rep. Will Hurd, and the central Texas seat held by Rep. Chip Roy.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has also declined to reserve air time there, and the lack of interest may suggest national Republicans are unsure of whether or not they will defend Hurd’s seat. Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones is running again after coming within 1,000 votes of ousting Hurt in 2018 and has more than $3 million banked. Meanwhile, the GOP nominee is unclear. The July primary runoff is still too close to call after Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) made a last-minute foray into the race to block a win by the preferred candidate of House Republican leaders.

There is a growing consensus that Roy, who faces a well-funded challenge from Texas’s former Democratic gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis, will need help in his reelection. But the conservative Club for Growth has signaled that it will back Roy, lessening the burden on CLF and the NRCC.

The Club is also likely to spend big for Matt Rosendale, the GOP nominee in Montana’s open seat, and for state Del. Nick Freitas, who is challenging Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA). CLF has already booked over $1.5 million in the Richmond, Va., market for Spanberger's seat.

And $6 million of CLF’s $45 million investment will go toward a GOTV program aimed at juicing up turnout as states increasingly plan to vote-by-mail. This new initiative will focus on reaching potential ticket-splitters in states that will be highly contested at the presidential level as well as low-propensity voters in states not hosting competitive presidential or Senate races.

And, as long as we're on the subject of the 2020 congressional races, I'd be remiss not to mention that Blue America has vetted and endorsed a strong slate of progressive challengers running for the U.S. House. If you click on the Act Blue thermometer on the right, you're not going to find any of the Blue Dogs or New Dems from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party-- just strong, verifiable progressives running on solid platforms. So... if you can, please consider contributing what you can to any-- or all-- of them. "On November 3rd, remember-- it's America or Trump."

Perhaps House Republicans and their SuperPacs and strategists should try getting down to the nitty gritty of what today's new Morning Consult poll showed in terms of who the voters trust to handle their most pressing issues (above). Asked to rate congressional Republicans on their handling of the pandemic, just 29% of voters rated them excellent or good. Congressional Dems were rated excellent or good by 38% of voters; Señor Trumpanzee by 35% of voters (the same as Pence). 61% of voters gave Fauci a good or excellent grade.