Desperate House Republicans Are Spending Millions To Defend Vulnerable Incumbents, Money They Planned To Use To Attack Democrats

This is a Republican ad-- but who will it help and who will it harm?

The Kevin McCarthy-controlled Congressional Leadership Fund went into the 2020 cycle with some kind of delusion that they would be able to go on the offensive and win back the seats they lost in 2018 and thereby the House majority. At some point they appear to have stopped drinking the ayahuasca that Bolsonaro gave them and realized they need some paddles to get back down shit's creek before it's too late. They're not winning back any of those seats until 2024. Now there's still a massive anti-red wave and McCarthy has ordered them to start playing defense.

Politico's Ally Mutnick reported Monday morning that the PAC just dumped another $45 million into TV and digital ads in 40 districts, doubling their investment in the cycle so far-- but much of it to defend hysterical House Republicans who see their careers slipping away.

Ironically-- but not surprisingly-- virtually all of their incumbent Democratic targets are from the Republican-wing of the House Democrats, the ones who vote most frequently with the GOP on crucial votes, which makes them vulnerable to attack. Every one of their targets has an "F" score from ProgressivePunch (except Debbie Mucarsel-Powell who has a "D" instead of an "F"):

• Kendra Horn (Blue Dog-OK-- $3.6 million) R+10
• Ben McAdams (Blue Dog-UT-- 3.1 million) R+13
• Anthony Brindisi (Blue Dog-NY-- $4.9 million) R+6
• Xochitl Torres Small (Blue Dog-NM-- $4 million) R+6
• Joe Cunningham (Blue Dog-SC-- $3.1 million) R+10
• Elaine Luria (New Dem-VA-- $2.8 million) R+3
• Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (New Dem-FL-- $2.7 million) D+6
• Susie Lee (New Dem-NV-- $1.9 million) R+2
• Harley Rouda (New Dem-CA-- $600,000) R+4
• Jared Golden (Blue Dog-ME-- $250,000) D+2

They are also spending against New Dems Lizzie Fletcher in Houston, Colin Allred in Dallas, Abby Spanberger in Virginia and Abby Finkenauer and Cindy Axne in Iowa.

But McCarthy's SuperPAC is also spending to protect some Republican districts once thought to be safe, like Montana’s at-large district and an open GOP-held seat on Long Island.

...[M]ost of the new markets added in the second wave of reservations cover defensive targets. CLF plans to book $3.2 million in Dallas and $500,000 in deep-red Montana, where Democrats are targeting two open GOP-held seats; and $775,000 in Cincinnati where Rep. Steve Chabot (R-OH) faces another stiff reelection challenge after turning aside a well-funded opponent last cycle.

The group has also set aside $1.9 million to defend retiring Rep. Pete King’s (R-NY) seat on Long Island-- where the Democratic candidate has a huge cash advantage and polling shows a tightening race.

The new round of TV ad spending comes amid increasing concern among some Republicans that President Donald Trump’s sinking suburban numbers could send them deeper into the House minority. There is a contingent in the party who have urged GOP outside groups to prioritize incumbents and open seats.

...Democrats will be able to go to toe-to-toe with that kind of spending. The incumbents in those seats have massive cash-on-hand advantages over their challengers, and they will also receive help from Democratic groups. House Majority PAC, congressional Democrats’ flagship outside group, is also flush with cash and has reserved $75 million so far.

And the buys do set CLF in a position to play defense in as many as 13 seats, including those held by Chabot and Reps. Jim Hagedorn (R-MN), Mike Garcia (D-CA), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa), Rodney Davis (R-IL), Don Bacon (R-NE) and Scott Perry (R-PA), as well as five open seats in Texas, New York, Georgia and Montana.

Texas is set to host a slew of competitive House races this cycle, but CLF notably has not booked in the San Antonio market, which covers the open West Texas swing seat held by retiring GOP Rep. Will Hurd, and the central Texas seat held by Rep. Chip Roy.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has also declined to reserve air time there, and the lack of interest may suggest national Republicans are unsure of whether or not they will defend Hurd’s seat. Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones is running again after coming within 1,000 votes of ousting Hurt in 2018 and has more than $3 million banked. Meanwhile, the GOP nominee is unclear. The July primary runoff is still too close to call after Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) made a last-minute foray into the race to block a win by the preferred candidate of House Republican leaders.

There is a growing consensus that Roy, who faces a well-funded challenge from Texas’s former Democratic gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis, will need help in his reelection. But the conservative Club for Growth has signaled that it will back Roy, lessening the burden on CLF and the NRCC.

The Club is also likely to spend big for Matt Rosendale, the GOP nominee in Montana’s open seat, and for state Del. Nick Freitas, who is challenging Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA). CLF has already booked over $1.5 million in the Richmond, Va., market for Spanberger's seat.

And $6 million of CLF’s $45 million investment will go toward a GOTV program aimed at juicing up turnout as states increasingly plan to vote-by-mail. This new initiative will focus on reaching potential ticket-splitters in states that will be highly contested at the presidential level as well as low-propensity voters in states not hosting competitive presidential or Senate races.

And, as long as we're on the subject of the 2020 congressional races, I'd be remiss not to mention that Blue America has vetted and endorsed a strong slate of progressive challengers running for the U.S. House. If you click on the Act Blue thermometer on the right, you're not going to find any of the Blue Dogs or New Dems from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party-- just strong, verifiable progressives running on solid platforms. So... if you can, please consider contributing what you can to any-- or all-- of them. "On November 3rd, remember-- it's America or Trump."

Perhaps House Republicans and their SuperPacs and strategists should try getting down to the nitty gritty of what today's new Morning Consult poll showed in terms of who the voters trust to handle their most pressing issues (above). Asked to rate congressional Republicans on their handling of the pandemic, just 29% of voters rated them excellent or good. Congressional Dems were rated excellent or good by 38% of voters; Señor Trumpanzee by 35% of voters (the same as Pence). 61% of voters gave Fauci a good or excellent grade.