Uncalled House Races-- Just A Dozen To Go

 

The latest election tallies show that Joe Biden is leading President Trump by 5,060,175 votes. That is a larger number than the margin between President Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012. In the 2012 election, Obama had 4,982,296 more votes than Romney.

This morning's election counties have Trump losing by 5,060,175 votes and that number will keep growing as more votes are counted in New York and California. At the moment, it stands like this:

• President-elect Joe Biden- 76,997,481 (50.8%)-- 290 electoral votes
• Señor Donald J. Trumpanzee- 71,926,263 (47.5%)- 214 electoral votes

There were a dozen actual swing states and 99% of the votes are counted in each one. Biden won 7 and Trump won 5:

This morning the race in Los Angeles for CA-34 was called for Jimmy Gomez, a garden variety progressive politician, who was in a D vs D fight with a super-progressive activist, David Kim. That leaves just an even dozen uncalled House races nationally, 3 more in California, 1 in Illinois, 1 in Iowa and 7 on New York.

The other California races are all for seats that were flipped from red to blue in 2018 and each pits a Republican against an uninspiring, pointless New Dem.

CA-21 includes all of Kings County and parts of Fresno, Kern and Tulare. It is 75% Hispanic and the PVI is D+5. In 2016, Hillary beat Trump there 55.2% to 39.7% and in 2018 TJ Cox ousted David Valadao by 862 votes-- 57,239 (50.4%) to 56,377 (49.6%). Cox has been a shitty Congress, not as shitty as Valadao, but utterly worthless. Valadao challenged him to a rematch and, with 91% of the vote counted, is now leading 72,350 (51.4%) to 68,324 (48.6%). Cox raised $4,798,088 to Valadao's $3,721,619. The DCCC spent $3,704,254 and Pelosi's House Majority PAC spent $3,218,656, about the same thing the Republican committees spent trying to help Valadao.

CA-25 is the Santa Clarita Valley/Antelope Valley/Simi Valley district that Katie Hill flipped in 2018 and then resigned from in a sex scandal. Mike Garcia beat pointless conservative Democrat Christy Smith in the special election on March 3-- 95,667 (54.9%) to 78,721 (45.1%). That was despite massive DCCC spending on Smith's behalf in a district with a Democratic registration advantage where the PVI is even but where Hillary beat Trump by 7 points. In 2018, Hill beat the Republican incumbent, Steve Knight, 133,209 (54.4%) to 111,813 (45.6%). With 99% of the vote counted, Garcia and Smith have been seesawing back and forth, with him currently leading her by 159 votes-- 165,178 (50.0%) to 165,019 (50.1%). Neither is fit to be in Congress.

Worst of the 3 terrible Democratic candidates in the uncalled California races is Gil Cisneros, the lottery winner who bought an Orange County/L.A./San Bernardino open seat in 2018 with $9,252,762 of his lottery winnings. He campaigned as a fake progressive and, predictably, joined the New Dems when he got to Congress and ran up a voting record rated "F" by ProgressivePunch. He's a waste of a seat and his 126,002 (51.6%) to 118,391 (48.4%) 2018 win over Republican Young Kim is-- with 99% of the vote counted-- not looking good. She leads him 167,564 (50.6%) to 163,396 (49.4%). Refusing to spend much of his own money again (just $370,887), he was out-raised by her $5,319,367 to $3,779,013. The DCCC and Pelosi's PAC put in another $2.6 million but it doesn't seem to have helped combat Democratic lethargy for another useless Republican-lite candidate with no accomplishments.

The uncalled race in Illinois is for the R+5 district northwest of Chicago, where Lauren Underwood ousted Randy Hultgren in 2018-- 156,035 (52.5%) to 141,164 (47.5%), winning in all 7 counties. Having made some progressive noises in 2018, she quickly ran up an "F" voting record (ProgressivePunch). Although Obama won the district in 2008, Hillary lost to Trump by 4 points. Right now with 99% of the votes counted, Underwood is narrowly leading right-wing fanatic and perennial self-funder Jim Oberweis, 198,017 (50.4%) to 194,588 (49.6%). Oberweis kicked in $1,208,179 from his personal fortune, but she out-raised him $7,099,198 to $2,515,192. The DCCC considered her safe and didn't spend in the district.

The Iowa race, in the southeast quadrant of the state (IA-02) is open because Democrat Dave Loebsack decided to retire. The Democrats ran Rita Hart and the Republican candidate is Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the D+1 district that re-elected Loebsack by 12 points in 2018, two years after giving Trump a 4 points win. (Obama took in by 13 points in 2012.) This is another race that is see-sawing back and forth. Right now, with 89% of the votes counted, Miller-Meeks leads 196,860 (50.0%) to 196,812 (50.0%)-- just 48 votes! Right now, this is the closest congressional race in the country. Hart out-raised Miller-Meeks $3,631,135 to $1,518,295 and the DCCC and Pelosi's PAC kicked in about $6.5 million, about the same as the GOP committees.

And that brings us to New York, where there are 7 uncalled races. Trump won both Long Island counties again. The Democrats nominated a conservative Blue Dog, Jackie Gordon. to run for Peter King's open seat on the South Shore. Only 78% of the vote has been counted but she is losing to Republican Andrew Garbarino, 157,482 (57.8%) to 112,584 (41.3%), not a gap she looks likely to close enough to win. On the North Shore New Dem Tom Suozzi looks like he's in trouble behind George Santos-- 137,938 (50.5%) to 133,765 (49.0%)-- but will likely win substantially with 28% of ballots (mostly blue mail in votes) uncounted.

The red-leaning Trump strongholds in Staten Island and south Brooklyn are delivering for the GOP and Democrats have been wiped out there. With 85% of the votes counted Blue Dog Max Rose-- who campaigned against his own party and is not that dissimilar to a stinking pile of shit-- is losing to Republican Nicole Malliotakis, 136,383 (57.9%) to 99,224 (42.1%). The PVI is R+3 and Rose has been one of the worst Democrats in the House and clearly doesn't deserve to be reelected, despite having outraised Malliotakis $8,350,467 to $3,052,007. The DCCC and Pelosi's SuperPAC wasted over $9 million on this race.

Although neither are is called yet, Sean Patrick Maloney and Antonio Delgado (NY-18 and 19) both lead their Republican opponents, Maloney 135,819 (51.0%) to 127,918 (48.1%)and Delgado 141,993 (50.3%) to 134,602 (47.6%), with a Libertarian shaving 1.2% of the vote off the Republican's total. About 80% is in on each candidate and, like Suozzi both these New Dems are likely going back to the House. Maloney has already announced he wants to run for the DCCC chair. I doubt he could be as bad as Cheri Bustos, but he'd be very close if he manages to win (unlikely).

The most exciting races are further north, NY-22 and NY-24. In NY-22 Anthony Brindisi-- the worst Blue Dog in the House, and one who many of his colleagues are actually hoping loses-- is in a rematch with ex-Congresswoman Claudia Tenney, She's a psychotic Trumpster so this is a race without a lesser evil. With 80% counted she's leading 139,926 (54.4%) to 111,539 (43.4%) in an R+6 district. It's hard to imagine Brindisi winning. Good riddance!

NY-24 (Syracuse and environs) is a D+3 district where progressive Dana Balter is working to oust mainstream Republican John Katko. 78% is counted and he leads her 155,830 (58.5%) to 110,728 (37.8%) in a rematch from 2018. Obama won the district by 16 points in 2012 and Hillary won it by about 3 and a half points in 2016. In 2018 Katko was reelected 136,920 (52.6%) to 123,226 (47.4%). This year he outraised Balter $3,541,163 to $2,711,811, but the DCCC and Pelosi's SuperPAC kicked in a little over $5 million, about the same as the Republican committees.

THEIR REGRESSIVE AND SELFISH ECONOMIC POLICIES ARE CATCHING UP WITH THE REPUBLICANS-- AND BOEING SUPPORTERS KNOW WHO TO BLAME: McCAIN

McBush: poster boys for shipping American jobs overseas

Yesterday McBush came up snake eyes in the Republican heartland. The GOP's presumptive heir to the George Bush political legacy took a big gamble with his high profile support of a much-disliked extremist in a solidly Republican special election-- and lost. It was a race that pitted McCain against Obama, who had campaigned for the Democrat. In 2004 Kerry had only managed 44% of the vote in IL-14. Obama helped Foster win with almost 53%.

The victory shows superdelegates, especially ones who are running for re-election in November what Obama-- celebrating his own impressive victory in Wyoming-- can do for them. It also shows Republicans who campaign with McBush what's in store for them. And this is nothing compared to what is likely to happen as the Bush Recession kicks in over the next few months.

As more and more Americans start putting the pieces of the puzzle together and realize that the high gas prices, the unacceptable inflation rate, the increasing unemployment figures, the housing market catastrophe are all an outgrowth of the Bush Regime's policies and agenda-- policies rubber stamped by McCain again and again... as well as by virtually all the Republican senators and congressmembers running for re-election in November, what happened yesterday in IL-14 will be a model for the Republicans' well-deserved undoing. Boeing workers, for example, have already figured it out and they're vowing revenge against "McCain over Chicago-based Boeing's loss of a $35 billion Air Force tanker contract to the parent company of European plane maker Airbus." Shipping American jobs overseas may be someone's idea of "Free Trade," but it doesn't go over outside of the Board rooms. When McCain bragged about having been instrumental in denying an immense new contract to Boeing for refueling planes and helping the European Aeronautics Defense and Space Co. get it instead, there was "outrage from union halls to the halls of Congress over the impact on U.S. jobs, prestige and national security."

Boeing supporters in Congress are directing their wrath at McCain, the Arizona senator and nominee in waiting, for scuttling an earlier deal that would have let Boeing build the next generation of Air Force refueling tankers. Boeing now will miss out on a deal that it says would have supported 44,000 new and existing jobs at the company and suppliers in 40 states.

"I hope the voters of this state remember what John McCain has done to them and their jobs," said Rep. Norm Dicks, D-Wash., whose state would have been home to the tanker program and gained about 9,000 jobs.

Another Democratic member of Congress, himself a big hypocrite for his support of the Iraq occupation and discredited "free" trade policies was bleating to the media: "Having made sure that Iraq gets new schools, roads, bridges and dams that we deny America, now we are making sure that France gets the jobs that Americans used to have," said Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill. "We are sending the jobs overseas, all because John McCain demanded it."

Even Republican hacks scared of losing their own seats are attacking McCain for his role in this. One of the most notorious rubber stamps in Congress, Bush's little pet Dave Reichert whined ineffectually:

"John McCain will be the nominee and I will support him, but if John McCain believes that Airbus or EADS is the company for our Air Force tanker program he's flat-out wrong — and I'll tell him that to his face," said Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Wash.

Rep. Todd Tiahrt, a Kansas Republican whose district includes a Boeing plant that could have gained hundreds of new jobs from the tanker program, said McCain's role in killing the earlier deal is likely to become an election issue. Both of the leading Democratic candidates for president, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, have criticized the Air Force decision.

"I think we absolutely will hear more about it," Tiahrt said. "We'll hear it mostly from the Democrats and they have every right to be concerned."

BIG LOSER IN IL-14 TONIGHT-- JOHN W. McCAIN

There are no more safe seats for Republicans

If you've spent any time around DWT you know we don't support Blue Dogs. When John Laesch was narrowly beaten by Blue Dog Bill Foster in the race for the Democratic nomination to fill out the rest of Denny Hastert's unexpired term, the race in IL-14 was over for us. But I sort of peeked at what was going on from time to time, especially when I saw that Obama was campaigning for Foster and McCain had staked his political capital on Jim Oberweis, the very extreme right wing loon the GOP had nominated. Looks like McCoattails had no magic to work for him though. The results will shake the Republican Party Establishment to its core. If IL-14 isn't safe for a Republican, what seat is?

Earlier today I referenced the Weekly Standard's prescription for Republican rubber stamps on how to inoculate themselves from the disdain Americans feel towards Bush and the GOP. Maybe he gave McCain and Oberweis an advance copy because they both tried to use it in Illinois. But the voters there were too smart for them.

McCain and Oberweis appeared on stage together, and Oberweis took the opportunity to point out the issues on which they agree. Both candidates want to see the borders secured, Oberweis said, and both want to cut taxes and reduce spending.

And both men believe Gen. David Petraeus' strategy in Iraq is working and want a gradual withdrawal of troops from Iraq.

"On each of these issues and more, John McCain and I stand united," Oberweis said. "And on each of these issues, and others, our opponents-- mine and his--- have taken the wrong side."

With 96% of precincts reporting, Foster had 49,488 (52%) votes to Oberweis' 44,888 (48%). [UPDATE: Foster's percentage went up slightly as more votes were counted.] The sad news that another Blue Dog will be selling out Democratic values and principles in Congress is tempered by the fact that he will be far better than Oberweis on many issues. Matt Stoller reminded me that even if he is a Blue Dog he has campaigned against the war and when it comes to Bush's attempts to get his regime cronies and campaign contributors at the telecoms retroactive immunity, Foster had come to understand the right way of looking at it:

"The President and his allies in Congress are playing politics with national security, and that's wrong. Nobody is above the law and telecom companies who engaged in illegal surveillance should be held accountable, not given retroactive immunity. I flatly oppose giving these companies an out for cooperating with Alberto Gonzalez on short-circuiting the FISA courts and the rule of law."

DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen explains the symbolic significance of tonight's victory:

Bill Foster’s victory in the seat that was held by Speaker Hastert sends a political shock wave across America this election year. It is a stunning rejection of the Bush Administration, its Republican allies, and presidential nominee John McCain. Republican candidates learned tonight that Senator McCain, who campaigned with the Republican nominee, cannot save them from defeat this November against strong Democratic challengers, even in districts that voted overwhelmingly for President Bush.

“Despite spending 20 percent of the their cash on hand, the NRCC was unable to hold a seat easily won by President Bush and held by Speaker Hastert for 20 years. Americans of all political stripes are rejecting Republicans’ divisive, status quo politics and turning to Democratic candidates for change. I am grateful to Senator Dick Durbin, Senator Barack Obama, and the Illinois Democratic delegation and candidates for encouraging the people of this district to vote for change by supporting Bill Foster.

“Voters of all political stripes responded to Bill Foster’s commitment to change. With his unique background as a respected scientist and a successful businessman, Bill Foster will be a tremendous asset to our Democratic Caucus, as we continue fighting to strengthen our economy and ease the squeeze on America’s struggling middle class families.”

The most recent PVI (Partisan Voting Index) from the Cook Political Report shows that IL-14 had a Republican advantage of +4.8. In light of what the Chicago Tribune just termed "a stunning upset," let's take a look at other top priority Republican seats Democrats are aiming for in November. (Please keep in mind that in 2006, Democrats won in districts with even more lopsided GOP PVIs. Brad Ellsworth beat an incumbent Republican in Indiana in a district with an 8.5 GOP advantage and Nick Lampson beat the Republican incumbent in a Texas district with a 14.5 GOP edge!)

This year Blue America races include:

WA-08, with a +2.3 Democratic edge and pitting progressive superstar Darcy Burner against pitiful rubber stamp Dave Reichert
NM-01, an open seat with a Democratic advantage of +2.4 and an incredible candidate in Martin Heinrich
NY-25, also an open seat, also with a Democratic advantage (+3.4) and also an excellent candidate (Dan Maffei)
CT-04, Chris Shays' seat, where he'll be contending with Jim Himes (in a district sick of the war, sick of Lieberman and with a healthy +5.4 Democratic lean)
NY-29, with a 5.2 Republican lean, re-matching Eric Massa against pathetic and frazzled Randy Kuhl
NC-08, with a mere 3.0 Republican advantage, the closest call of 2006, re-matches Larry Kissell against Robin Hayes
AZ-01, an open seat after Rick Renzi's indictment with a 2.2 Republican PVI and a great Democrat in Howard Shanker
NY-26, with a 3.5 Republican lean, it will be Tom Reynolds against Jon Powers, the strongest opponent he's ever had to face
NJ-05, with a small Republican advantage (4), pitting Dennis Shulman against crazed right winger Scott Garrett
OH-02, with a prohibitive-looking 13.1 Republican advantage, but pitting a widely disliked incumbent, Mean Jean Schmidt, against a surging and admired Victoria Wulsin
CA-04, another big GOP advantage (10.9) in an open seat, but pitting a popular local Democrat, Charlie Brown, against a pack of carpet-bagger extremists
PA-15, with a Democratic lean of +2, pitting rubber stamp incumbent Charlie Dent against Sam Bennett
CA-42, big GOP advantage (10) but extremist loon with ethical problems (Gary Miller) facing an excellent grassroots Dem in Ron Shepston
VA-11, an open seat with a fractional Democratic advantage pitting a spectacular ex-congresswoman, Leslie Byrne against a far right vanity candidate obsessed with religious mania
FL-08, with a small and rapidly shrinking Republican advantage (3), pitting Alan Grayson against rubber stamp Ric Keller
MI-07, with a small Republican lean (2) and pitting a respected and much-liked state Senator, Mark Schauer against a disliked extremist freshman, Tim Walberg
CA-26, with a diminsihing Republican lean (4), pitting out-of-touch GOP closet queen David Dreier against a solid Russ Warner

UPDATE: HOW HIS RACIST & DIVISIVE POSITION ON IMMIGRATION COOKED OBERWEIS' GOOSE

Our old friend Hosh Hoyt, Executive Director of the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights, analyzed Oberweis' defeat yesterday and concluded that Democrats, evenincluding the DCCC, got it right-- and won. The Democratic approach was a good slap in the face to Rahm Emanuel and Heath Shuler's "move to the right" tactics. Josh:

Faced with an aggressive, divisive attack by harshly anti-immigrant Republican candidate Jim Oberweis, Foster presented a positive, nuanced, and humanitarian approach to solutions on the issue. At the same time the DCCC launched an aggressive counter-attack on Oberweis for his hypocrisy on immigration. The combination of a positive, solution oriented approach by candidate Foster and a hard-hitting offense on the immigration hypocrisy of Oberweis neutralized the Republican attack with mainstream voters without alienating Latino voters. This is a road map for future Democratic victories in swing districts where immigration will be an issue.

Jim Oberweis is a hard-line demagogue on immigration matters. During his race for the U.S. Senate seat that Barack Obama eventually won in 2004, Oberweis made a name for himself with an incredibly harsh anti-immigrant ad. He flew in a helicopter over Soldier’s Field, claiming falsely that 70,000 illegal immigrants (a football stadium’s worth) come into the U.S. each week.

...Neither Oberweis’s stands on immigration nor his harsh rhetoric have changed since 2004. The top issue listed on Oberweis’s current campaign website is “Securing Our Borders” and his campaign position compares illegal immigrants to burglars.

“Think about it: When a burglar breaks into your home at night, your proper response is not to
invite him to sit down to dinner; it is to call the authorities, if need be, to remove him. Why should we treat illegal immigrants any differently?”

It was inevitable that he would attack his opponent Foster as being pro-amnesty, and indeed his numerous TV ads opposed “amnesty." In the final week ads run on behalf of Oberweis accused Foster of wanting to use taxpayer money to give citizenship to illegal immigrants.
 
Although Oberweis had been demagoging the issue of illegal immigration, he had a vulnerability on the issue. In November of 2005 the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights and the Chicago Workers Collaborative had filed a complaint with the Illinois Department of Labor on behalf of two undocumented workers, Jorge Ibarra and Rosa Ramirez. They had been working cleaning Oberweis Ice Cream stores in Chicago’s suburbs, and had been paid $3.23 an hour. The CWC had videotaped [see link above] Jorge and Rosa cleaning the stores, working for Oberweis managers and using Oberweis cleaning materials, to be able to prove their claims.

The 14th Congressional District was drawn to be a reliably Republican district, and to protect incumbent Dennis Hastert, formerly the Speaker of the House, who occupied the seat for 20 years. It is a district won by President Bush in each of his races.
 
Unfortunately for Mr. Oberweis, the 14th Congressional District is the home to a rapidly growing and large numbers of immigrants. In 2000 there were 131,000 Latinos and Asians living in the 14th Congressional District. By 2005 that number had shot up to 189,912. By 2005 immigrants and their children accounted for 222,868 people, a stunning 29.6% of the population. In the same five years the numbers of naturalized citizens had increased from 25,224 to 40,159. During the last four years vigorous non-partisan voter registration and citizenship efforts by the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights have significantly changed the electorate in the 14th Congressional District.

In August of 2006 Chicago Sun Times reporter Scott Fornek quoted Illinois Republican Chairman Andy McKenna Jr., saying “he is not worried that the changing demographics will hurt the GOP, noting that Bush won 45 percent of the Hispanic vote nationwide. ‘I think families of every ethnic makeup in suburban communities care about schools, about jobs and pocketbook issues,’ McKenna said. ‘And we have a good story to tell on all of those.’” On immigration, however, Republican candidate Oberweis clearly did not have an attractive message for the new immigrant voters in the 14th Congressional District.

Candidate Foster faced an important decision on the issue of immigration. Should he protect himself from the inevitable attacks on the issue of immigration by Oberweis by taking a hardline, enforcement first position, and defensively begin his position with the statement “I am not for amnesty?” This is the position that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had been recommending over the past several years [exacerbated by Rahm Emanuel's shrill demands that Democratic candidates "move to the right on immigration"].
 
The danger of moving right on immigration would be that it would turn off the potential base of Latino voters in the district, worsen the general tone of the debate, and not call the district voters to an honest approach to finding solutions.

Instead Foster chose to advance a positive, nuanced, and solutions oriented approach to addressing immigration issues. The language of his position on immigration stresses “workable compromise," “humanitarian," and “comprehensive,” along with “nation of laws” and “border security." He reached out to immigrant advocates and Latino community leaders.

At the same time the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ran a series of mailers, robo-calls, radio ads, and TV ads ridiculing Oberweis for being a hypocrite on the issue of illegal immigration.

This tactic so infuriated Oberweis that his son, who runs the dairy, filed a lawsuit against the DCCC. The lawsuit was filed on Thursday night, just 36 hours before the polls would open, claiming that the ads were false. ICIRR responded with a press release pointing out that truth of the claims and the DCCC filed a countersuit calling the Oberweis claim frivolous. The net result was that on the eve of the election numerous stations again played their archive footage of undocumented immigrants Jorge and Rosa cleaning the Oberweis stores!

Foster won the race last night with a convincing 5,000 vote margin, 53% to 47%. It is well worth noting that Foster carried the heavily Hispanic City of Aurora with a 3,200 vote margin. Dozens of  Latino and immigrant activists were working to Get Out The Vote for Foster on election day.
 
This victory shows that a reasonable solution oriented approach to immigration combined with a hard offence on Republican hypocrisy can successfully neutralize a harsh attack on Democrats for being soft on illegal immigration – even in a Republican leaning district. It is possible to do this without alienating Latino voters or pandering to the climate of hate that has engulfed the debate on immigration.
 
Bill Foster deserves to be complemented on running a campaign to be proud of; the Democratic Party and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee deserve to be complemented for finally getting it right on immigration.

BLUE DOG vs REPUBLICAN DOG: ILLINOIS CONGRESSIONAL SEAT FOR SALE?

Two more years?

Has anyone seen a big "Congressional Seat For Sale" sign up in Elgin or Aurora? Maybe in the subdivisions of Kendall County or the corn fields of Lee or Henry Counties? Two self-funding multi-millionaires, Republican ice cream king Jim Oberweis and Blue Dog businessman Bill Foster, are spending unimaginable amounts of their own fortunes to grab the northern Illinois seat once held by the disgraced Denny Hastert. Of course, thinking of how wealthy his tenure in Congress has made Hastert-- a former high school wrestling coach who, like Oberweis and Foster, is now rolling in the big bucks-- it becomes far more imaginable (particularly for Oberweis who wants to use it as a stepping stone for his real ambition: the governor's mansion).

Dan Campana in today's Beacon News points out that so far the two of them have spent $3.5 million for the Special Election (that will give them the seat for the remainder of Hastert's term, 9 months). Neither has a clue about grassroots politics and both are spending heavily on expensive and very un-cost efficient broadcast media. In a race like this-- in a very Republican district-- where the GOP millionaire has more money than the Blue Dog millionaire and where Foster has to strain credibility to make a case he's actually different in any significant way from Oberweis-- the Republican wins.

Despite all that spending, despite the polls of theoretical voters, and despite the GOP's crashing standing among the American people, it isn't likely that the Blue Dog will get above the 40% in the Special Election that John Laesch managed against Speaker Hastert in 2006. One of my friends in IL-14 thinks the margin will be much worse. Turnout will be the key. An analysis from another Illinois friend:

The high turnout on the Republican side on Feb. 5, 2008 was due to the Congressional race, not the presidential race. Jim Oberweis earned 44,000 votes. These people turned out for Oberweis and one could argue that Lauzen’s voters turned out for Lauzen. It could be argued that the Hastert/Oberweis machine will be able to GOTV for Oberweis on March 8th much more effectively than any Democrat could.
 
Here are growing GOP totals within the district:
2004 – 54,000 (no contested races)
2006 – 69,000 (contested gubernatorial race)
2008 – 77,000 (contested congressional race in a presidential year)
 
Conversely, high turnout on the Democratic side was due to Barack Obama. While most of the 32,000 Laesch voters turned out for Laesch, many of the 32,000 Foster voters turned out for Obama and recognized Foster’s name from the endless TV commercials. I would safely bet that only a small fraction actually knew who he was. 
 
In a game of GOTV, Foster may be able to pair off with Oberweis in Kane County (where Lauzen voters may not vote), but I don’t see him coming close anywhere else. Foster would have to creatively outspend Oberweis 3:1 to turn out more than 44,000 voters. I see no creativity in Foster’s campaign and his best asset is that Bill Pasco (Oberweis) is even lazier and running this like a city council race.

Where does this leave progressives? In the last week, without discussing Foster specifically, we talked about the dangers to the progressive movement of the Democratic Party being taken over by Blue Dogs and corrupt Democrats beholden to careerists like Rahm Emanuel (here and here). These kinds of Democrats are not even the lesser of two evils; they may even be the greater evil. Supporting-- with resources and energy desperately needed by progressive Democrats around the country-- a Blue Dog Emanuelist like Foster is unthinkable for me. If I lived in IL-14 it would be much tougher. Would I vote for this guy or watch him fail so that a real progressive like Laesch or State Senator Mike Noland steps up in 2010 when Oberweis tries to run for governor again?