THE REPUBLICAN GAME PLAN FOR VICTORY-- WITHOUT MENTIONING THE REGULAR DIVISIVENESS, RACISM AND SMEARS

On the cover of today's Weekly Standard, a right-wing propaganda sheet, Jeffrey Bell offers McCain some advice about how to deal with what he calls "A Failed Presidency."

The failure of the Bush presidency is the dominant fact of American politics today. It has driven every facet of Democratic political strategy since early 2006, when Democrats settled on the campaign themes that brought them their takeover of the House and Senate in November 2006. Nothing--not even the [so-called] success of the American troop surge in Iraq--has altered or will alter the centrality of George W. Bush and his failed presidency to Democratic planning in the remainder of 2008.

Until very recently, it was in the Republicans' interest to find ways of sidestepping or finessing this central political fact. Congressional Republicans sensed that open acknowledgment of the failure of the Bush presidency could cause a collapse in floor discipline, perhaps leading to a series of veto overrides and even forced surrender in Iraq. Candidates for the Republican presidential nomination had to deal with the fact that in our polarized politics, Republican primary voters are still predominantly pro-Bush. From the beginning of this cycle, GOP campaign strategists were aware that presidential candidates openly contemptuous of the Bush administration would go nowhere in the primaries (Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo) or prove to be nonstarters (Chuck Hagel).

John McCain's clinching of the Republican nomination changes many if not most of these GOP calculations. If Republicans are to accomplish the unusual feat of winning a third consecutive presidential election in the context of an unpopular administration of their own party, they will have to develop a narrative that takes into account the failed presidency in their midst while at the same time making a plausible case for a new Republican presidency and continued Republican strength in Congress. This in turn requires an understanding of Bush's failure that is not self-discrediting for Republicans.

That's a tough one but Bell then drones on for pages and pages about the greatness of Reagan and how Bush tried to emulate [some bizarro Rovian version of] him, with some successes and some failures, although in the end he can't get around the fact that the vast, vast majority of Americans judge Bush and his presidency as a dismal, unabashed failure across the board. So what are a pack of pathetic rubber stamps from John W. McCain down to the lowliest, least powerful Bush shills in the Senate-- like John Barrasso (R-WY), Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), John Sununu (R-NH) and Norm Coleman (R-MN)-- to do? Bell's biggest mistake is that he believes his own Republican hype about the success of the surge. If the Democrats manage to obliterate that false argument, the GOP has absolutely nothing. Well, they do have their favorite old fallback, which is what Bell is really suggesting: obfuscation:

In the presidential primaries, John McCain handled the Iraq issue brilliantly, making the most of the mounting success of the Petraeus troop surge. He commended the president for doing the right thing, but reminded voters that he, McCain, had called for a surge long before that policy had been adopted.

This combination provides an excellent model for Republican candidates who must deal with voters' feelings about the Bush presidency. Democratic opponents and reporters will press them for an overall assessment of Bush's performance or some aspect of it, knowing full well that either blanket support or rejection will cause problems for a Republican. If the candidate approves of Bush, voters will react negatively, picturing "more of the same." If the candidate disapproves, Republicans will see a turncoat and Democrats a rat leaving a sinking ship.

Rather than be trapped into this binary choice, Republicans will find it in their interest to break down such questions into specifics, then to pivot as quickly as possible toward the future. It is important to acknowledge Bush's failures rather than deny them, but also to cite the role of Democratic or congressional opposition whenever that can be legitimately claimed.

So, as they always have, the Republicans will bank on voters being easily fooled and manipulated. It has worked for them in the past. Will it work now, as inflation, foreclosures, bankruptcies and unemployment climb, as the steady drip, drip, drip of bombings and death in Iraq puts the lie to the "Surge Success" hype? Bell has some specific answers for McBush, Coleman, Sununu, Dole, Cornyn, Inhofe and the rest of the endangered rubber stamps:

On the economy, for example, a Democrat may cite the superior performance of the Clinton years. A Republican candidate can counter by reminding voters that Bush had to deal with the sudden dislocations of 9/11. He can say he believes Bush was right to counter the 2001 recession with tax cuts, but lament the fact that Congress insisted on delaying the effective dates, which always delays a recovery. The Republican, who presumably voted for or supported the tax cuts, can note that Democrats insisted they all expire, a fact that is now causing uncertainty among workers and investors as stiff tax increases loom ever closer. Thus looking toward the future, the Republican can ask the Democrat to join him in supporting legislation to make the current and scheduled future tax cuts permanent, effective immediately. If the Democrat agrees, welcome the bipartisan spirit. If (more likely) he doesn't, demand that he explain how leaving the prospect of stiff tax increases in place will help today's economy and stock market. Why does he think raising the death tax from zero to a top rate of 55 percent two years from now, for instance, will be a good thing for American families?

On Bush's conduct of the war, a Republican can say he agrees with Bush's decision to order a swift military reaction to the mass murders of 9/11, but wishes Bush had sent more men to kill or capture Osama bin Laden before he could escape from Afghanistan. Like McCain, a GOP candidate can commend the appointment of Petraeus, while wishing it had happened three years earlier. And he can support Petraeus's recommendations on how soon to redeploy. Pivoting to the future, he can ask whether his Democratic opponent agrees with Petraeus's timetable or that of Harry Reid (or Nancy Pelosi or Barack Obama). Or does he agree with Hillary Clinton's statement at a Senate hearing last year that believing Petraeus requires "a willing suspension of disbelief"?

The temptation for Republicans trying to climb out of the wreckage of the Bush war presidency in 2008 will be to focus too intensely on Petraeus and his success in Iraq. It is true that the success of the surge is a precondition for GOP recovery in 2008; after being the greatest embarrassment, Iraq has emerged as the safest Republican talking point in all of foreign policy. But without a refocus of voters' attention on the larger global war against jihadism, the Democratic narrative will continue to have life: If invading Iraq was a mistake, even our improved prospects there can be seen as a lucky sideshow to overall Republican blundering.

It is thus essential for McCain and other Republican candidates to point out the violent activities of jihadists all over the world. If these activities are real, and they are, voters can be not so much convinced as reminded that the American response to 9/11 was right. Mistakes by Bush or Tony Blair or any other war leader do not make the threat of mass murder any less real.

The global war on terrorism is not a mirage or a bumper sticker, but a necessity. So is the promotion of democratic values around the world. That is the true alternative to jihadism, not American retreat, and not a rush to hold photo ops with rogue-state dictators who say it is America that causes the problems of the world.
This is the central argument that must be joined, and it is an argument not just about the past but about our future and the future of the world. It is an argument that, for all of our faults, Republicans were born to win.

Will McBush follow this advise? Sure-- if Rove thinks it'll work. I wonder if he thinks this will work: