MANY SUPERDELEGATES-- MEMBERS OF CONGRESS-- PRAYING OBAMA WINS BY TKO ON TUESDAY

In yesterday's Congress Daily Erin McPike did a story about cool calculation and how political career trajectories of members of Congress-- all of whom are superdelegates-- figure into the selection of the Democratic nominee. McPike postulates that most candidates running for office-- a third of the Senate, all of the House and a load of governors, etc-- think Obama will have bigger and stronger coattails than Hillary. And for many candidates running for re-election, coattails mean a lot more than policy positions or any other factors. As the impossibility for Hillary to ever catch Obama in terms of elected delegates, these superdelegates are the only-- albeit evaporating-- chance she has to win the presidency.

An Emanuel crony, speaking anonymously, told her that he knows that "'many of our [most vulnerable House freshmen] are crossing their fingers for Obama,' even if they haven't pronounced their support publicly, because 'they know he is a much less polarizing figure.'" He suggests that, although Emanuel, Pelosi and Van Hollen have all remained neutral, they're all rooting for Obama, not because of his policies but because of what they reckon his coattails will drag in.

Hillary, once the prohibitive frontrunner all the careerists were eager to attach their stars to, still leads Obama in overall endorsements in both houses but among vulnerable freshmen, Obama tops Clinton ten to four-- and three of Clinton's four come from her own state.

Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg suggested Obama's swath of red-state endorsements [both senators from North Dakota, right-leaning Tim Johnson from South Dakota, ultra reactionary Ben Nelson from Nebraska, as well as moderates from Missouri and West Virginia] was motivated largely by the "political calculation that he might be a stronger top-of-the-ticket candidate than she would" in some of the rough areas for Democrats. She noted that Clinton "keeps the Republican base together better than he does."

I contacted a dozen of the Blue America candidates and only one of them would comment on the record. Typical was this comment: "The good news is, exit polls on Super Tuesday here showed that over 70% of Dems are happy about both candidates... but we're not going to comment publicly about who would be better for us." And "we're just going to love the one who wins!" One candidate, who told me he voted for John Edwards said, "If I were going to be cold about this, it probably would make sense for me to declare for Obama, because there are an awful lot of Obama people already working on my campaign, and more who would like to do so. But it just seems like bad karma to do that.  Certainly, I can wait until after Tuesday. If Obama wins Texas and Ohio, then that will be that."

The one on-the-record comment came from Donna Edwards who, predictably, hit the nail right on the head: "Voters are looking for leaders who believe in their own politics and are not simply gaming the system for a political advantage. Whether the Democratic nominee is Sen. Obama or Sen. Clinton, those who line up behind them must be authentic and willing to speak seriously about health care for all of us, an economy that works for working people, solutions to global warming and energy independence, and getting out of Iraq and returning to diplomatic engagement. Voters will hold Democrats accountable for real choices that impact their lives and not the transparent political manuevering to determine whose coattails to ride."

McPike, though, had more luck than I did getting some challengers do speak on the record.

Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley faces a strong challenger in attorney Steve Novick for the Democratic Senate nomination to face Sen. Gordon Smith, R-Ore.

Merkley endorsed Obama Monday after having supported former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

Spokesman Matt Canter said many of Edwards' high-profile supporters in the area have come out for Obama. That prompted Merkley to decide the time to endorse had come. "A lot has happened over the last month," Canter said, referring to Obama's primary wins. "Speaker Merkley decided it's the right time for the Democratic Party to get united and not be nitpicking." Oregon holds both its presidential and congressional primaries May 20.

Meanwhile, Tennessee Democrat Bob Tuke faces an uphill battle in toppling a Republican senator, but he's pinning his hopes on the likelihood Obama will be around and just as popular in November.

"Obama has some very significant coattails, including in Tennessee," said Tuke, an attorney who was Obama's political director in the state.

... He added that he talked to party leaders and officials in the state who encouraged him to run when he was close to deciding against it, and they convinced him that with Obama running, there would be a sea change this cycle that could produce unexpected results, so he entered the race officially over the weekend.

Unfortunately no one I spoke to and, at least in terms of her story, no one McPike spoke to talked about any substantive reasons for supporting either candidate. Funny because it was just yesterday when Obama demonstrated how he knows exactly how to take on a vicious old fraud and warmonger like McCain-- far better than Kerry ever did with the clod in the White House. When McCain tried associating al-Qaeda with Iraq and started caterwauling about Democrats raising the white flag of surrender, Obama told the press, "I have some news for John McCain; there was no Al Qaeda in Iraq until George Bush and John McCain started their war... John McCain may like to say he wants to follow Osama bin Laden to the gates of Hell, but so far all he's done is follow George Bush into a misguided war in Iraq."


UPDATE: AND WHAT DO REPUBLICANS THINK?

Not every political observer agrees that Obama is the best bet for Democrats though. More than a few of my friends say the Republican-owned media-- not to mention GOP politicians) are pushing the narrative that he is more electable because they are certain he isn't. Thursday longtime California Republican operative, Dan Schnur, a former McCain staffer, writing in the NY Times explains why he feels Hillary is the more formidable candidate-- and why he's been rooting for Obama to win the nomination. It isn't, as he admits, primarily because he admires Obama "for the tremendous interest and enthusiasm he has engendered among younger Americans." Although he is wrong and hasn't examined the hard facts-- or is making believe he hasn't-- Schur claims Hillary is a moderate and Obama is a flaming liberal. Despite the "nonpartisan National Journal's" ranking Obama as the most liberal member of the Senate-- which McCain and his lobbyists will be parroting from now until McCain tries to understand why Barry Goldwater got more electoral votes than he did-- both have moderate voting records and, in fact, Clinton has been more progressive than Obama!


BETTER UPDATE: GRETCHEN CLEARWATER LIVES UP TO HER NAME (AND REPUTATION)

Gretchen is a real straight talker-- not the McCain kind-- and she just got in off the campaign trail and e-mailed me her unambiguous thoughts on this. She breaks the mold:

As candidate for Indiana's 9th District for Congress, my endorsement of Barack Obama is one I make with great ease. Obama has inspired hundreds of thousands voters to be excited about our government and its leadership! He is bringing people to the polls and that is what Democracy is all about!

He exudes hope! And hope at a time, when we as a nation face 3 trillion dollar deficit due to an immoral war against Iraq, record home foreclosures and job losses especially in Indiana, and a national health insurance crisis, is very welcome.

The vast majority of the people I meet, as I travel the district are Obama supporters. I cannot tell you how many Republicans I have met and both young and old democratic voters who have told me they will be voting for Obama. So many people I have met are sick and tired of the same old, tired politicians who have been representing them in the same old, tired way, for too long. His presence on the ticket has a healing effect for so many people, for African American voters who I have met especially. And we as a nation have a great deal of healing to do. People are tired of the hostility between the two major parties. They tell me it is time to get over our differences and get some work done.

Pelosi should know that Indiana's 9th district Republican voters are leaving their party for Obama!  The nation has changed-- it is time for Democratic leadership to change along with it!