State Legislative Races-- Big Disappointment As GOP Gets Ready To Gerrymander Like Mad

 

The National Conference of State Legislatures released this before-and-after graphic showing legislative control yesterday (bottom) and what it will look like starting in January (top). The only changes appear to possibly be in Arizona and New Hampshire, two non-gerrymander states.

NCSL executive director Tim Storey reported that "Democrats look like they will win the Arizona House for the first time since 1966. Republicans are poised to win back the New Hampshire Senate that went Democratic just two years ago." There are still enough votes being counted now to possibly change control in one or two chambers (including the Arizona state Senate and the New Hampshire House)-- but don't count on it. Also undetermined right now is who will control the Michigan House, the Pennsylvania House (both of which could flip blue) and both chambers in Nevada (where one or both could flip red).

Storey: "[T]his appears to be a remarkably status quo election in the U.S. states. It looks like this will be the least party control changes on Election Day since at least 1944 when only four chambers changed hands. It’s still possible that there could be even fewer than four flips as a result of Tuesday’s voting. In the 1926 and 1928 elections, only one chamber changed hands. And 2020 could conceivably match that."

Even adding in the governors’ races leads to hardly any change in the state partisan landscape. There was only one party change among the chief executives, and that was in the open governor’s race in Montana. Term-limited Democratic Governor Steve Bullock ran for the Senate, and Republican candidate Greg Gianforte took the mansion back for the GOP.

That win led to the only new trifecta in the nation, in Big Sky Country.

It is possible that Republicans will lose their unified control in Arizona, meaning the number of D, R and divided states stays exactly the same. No other changes are expected in the trifecta unless late returns in New Hampshire’s 400-member House, notoriously always hard to pin down, plus a GOP pick-up of the Granite State Senate leads to a new GOP trifecta there.

As it stands now, the lack of partisan change in the states is jaw dropping.

There were, however, some good results in a few places. Early in the cycle, Blue America endorsed progressive Democrat Heidi Campbell in her race to replace the last member of the Tennessee state legislature in the Nashville area, state Senator Steven Dickerson. Yesterday Heidi beat him 51.7% to 48.3%.

And up in Green Bay, Wisconsin Kristina Shelton won the Wisconsin Assembly seat to represent the 90th district with 60.2% of the vote. You may recall that last month this progressive leader told us that her personal politics align with AOC and that "We need all Democrats to get comfortable being courageous." Wisconsin needs a solid Democratic bench. She's part of it now.

Florida was the nexus of pain-- particularly Miami-Dade. Democratic turnout in red counties was through the roof while in Miami-Dade, it completely fell apart, possibly because of the tireless efforts of Trump crony Louis DeJoy and his team at the USPS. 67,385 requested Democratic absentee ballots that were sent to voters never made their way to the counting stations. Not a single legislative seat changed hands-- so Florida!

Writing for Rolling Stone, Tessa Stuart reported that "Despite months of polling that suggested Biden was a slight favorite to win the Sunshine state, Florida has slipped out of Democrats’ grasp once again... There have been clear signs in recent weeks that Republicans were turning out in higher numbers in a part of Florida where Democrats need to run up the score in order to win: Miami-Dade County... Around 55 percent of Florida’s Cuban-American vote went to Donald Trump, according to exit polls, giving him huge gains over his 2016 performance in the county, swinging some 200,000 voters into his column. But it wasn’t just Cubans breaking for Trump-- he won 30 percent of Puerto Ricans and 48 percent of 'other Latinos' in the state."

On Election Day, Rolling Stone spoke to Maria Elena Lopez, first vice chair of the Miami Dade Democrats to get a sense of the situation on the ground. Democrats had a fragile, roughly 100,000 ballot lead in the early vote, and volunteers were still out knocking doors, frantically trying to get out the vote. At the time, Lopez said turnout was on track to match 2016-- a problem, considering Hillary Clinton lost the state and the election that year. Still, Lopez was hopeful Tuesday morning that Biden might do better than Clinton did in other parts of the state, like the I-4 corridor, home to a growing Puerto Rican population.

“My worst fear would be that our Latin community believes the bullshit that Biden is a socialist and communist, and doesn’t vote for him,” Lopez said bluntly on Tuesday. “That is my main fear. It is very hard to fight misinformation, and that has been the most frustrating part for us as a party. How do you go out there and try to have a logical conversation with people that do not believe what you’re saying?”

This afternoon, Kathy Lewis, the Democrat we were hoping would flip the state Senate blue, told her followers in an e-mail that she ran the campaign she wanted to run despite the Florida Democratic Party. "Many people 'in the know'-- party leaders, consultants, people in our community-- told me this was an unwinnable race, she wrote. "They said it was especially unwinnable without the support of big money donors who would have censored my voice. Over 115,000 voters disagreed. Though we have lost this race, we have proved what is possible for future elections. We have shown that it is possible to run a truly grassroots campaign and fund it with small, individual donations-- we have raised more than $133,000 with an average donation of $80.  Considering this was a special election with a short lead time, this is a phenomenal achievement!"

In thanking her supporters, she noted that "As the late, Honorable John Lewis said, we make progress by making good trouble. That’s what we did together. Together, we have shown that it is possible to put the interests of people first, before big money and big business... This race and our campaign have focused the bright Florida sunshine on the problems so many hardworking Floridians face. We have raised the flag, bringing attention to the problems facing so many Florida families:

• to the difficulties obtaining disability and medical benefits;
• to the disenfranchisement of voters brought by poverty and race;
• to the problems workers and families have gaining equal access to quality and affordable health care;
• to women’s right to have control over their own bodies;
• to the issues of marriage equality and equal and fair employment and housing practices for the LGBTQ+ communities and for people of color;
• to the need for a realistic living wage—Amendment 2 on the ballot does not go far enough soon enough;
• to the issue of gun violence which affects too many people each and every day;
• to the problems we have in our criminal justice system with inequitable practices in our state law enforcement, the hiring of unqualified and disqualified applicants, and the need to invest in mental health services and education in law enforcement and in schools
• to the unfair burden put on our teachers to be all things to our children while being paid far less than they deserve;
• to the concerns of the environment and climate change that disproportionately affect Floridians, Florida tourism, small businesses, and people of color; and
• to our state’s haphazard, patchwork response to the pandemic, needlessly endangering millions of people, and especially our first responders, and needlessly sacrificing the lives of loved ones in the process.

She concluded that "Future Democratic candidates have a new playbook for how to run an honest, people-first campaign with sustainable grassroots support and without having to answer to corporations, special interests, or powerful, self-interested politicians."

Will The Anti-Red Tsunami Sweep The Democrats Back Into Control Of State Legislatures-- Yes, But Why Not Florida?

 

Florida Man x 3

Reporting for National Journal, Mary Frances McGowan and Leah Askarinam wrote about the state of the crucial-- but largely ignored-- down-ballot battles over control of state legislatures. In a tsunami-- even though it's primarily a rejection of Trump-- Republicans on all levels are staring into the wide open maw of defeat. In 2010, two years after Obama's big win, due almost entirely to Democratic Party complacency and incompetence on every level, 21 state legislative chambers flipped from blue to red. The Republicans used these wins to further gerrymander state after state into GOP bastions, particularly North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Texas. (Democrats did basically the same thing in Illinois and Maryland.)

"Ten years later," wrote McGowan and Askarinam, "Democrats control 39 legislative chambers out of 98 total (excluding Nebraska, which is unicameral). Republicans are on defense, and Democratic groups are stressing the importance of having a seat at the table during redistricting, not to mention the importance of policy goals like expanding Medicaid and increasing voter access." They warn that it's no easy task. Republicans drew the boundaries of the districts being fought over and the Republican State Leadership Committee has had "a gargantuan financial war chest" to work with. Blue America is trying to boost the chances of progressive candidates across the country and you can contribute to any or all of them by clicking on the ActBlue thermometer on the right. National Journal delineates the 10 most likely chambers to flip a week from Tuesday.

The 67 seat Minnesota Senate, which currently has 35 Republicans and 32 Dems, is probably the surest bet, with 10 Republican-held districts that Governor Tim Walz carried in 2018. The Dems need to flip just 2 of them and are likely to flip at least 5.

In Arizona, both Houses are controlled by the GOP and both look flippable in a state that is trending blue and where Biden is way ahead and where Democrat Mark Kelly looks sure to beat GOP incumbent Martha McSally in a US Senate landslide. Governor Ducey is loathed because of his disastrous pandemic response and state legislators are going to get walloped because of him (and Trump). "More so than in other state legislatures," wrote McGowan and Askarinam, "the results from the two chambers are likely to reflect one another. Arizona is divided into 30 legislative districts, each of which is represented by one state senator and two state House members. Republicans hold a 17-13 majority in the state Senate and a 31-29 majority in the House. Democrats should be able to win both but, like Minnesota , this isn't going to have any impact on the redrawing of district lines. (Arizona has an independent commission doing that job.)

Texas though, is a real battle-royale where the ability of the GOP to gerrymander is very much at stake. This one is CRUCIAL. Please contribute to Lorenzo Sanchez, Eric Holguin and Erin Zwiener here. Right now there are 83 Republicans and 67 Democrats in the state House and the Democrats are heavily targeting the 9 Republican-held seats that Beto O’Rourke carried in his 2018 Senate race, focusing on blue-trending suburban areas near Houston and Dallas, where Trump has become an albatross around the neck of every Republican. If the Democrats flip this chamber, the repercussions nationally will be humongous because GOP plans to gerrymander newly blue congressional districts will have to be scrapped.

The Iowa House has a 53-47 Republican majority. The Democrats need 4 seats to take back control. The legislature doesn’t draw the legislative boundaries but it gets to approve or disapprove them. Democrats control 3 of the 4 congressional districts and the 4th is an open seat where J.D. Scholten is running the most energetic campaign in the state. It looks like Biden is going to win the state, as will Theresa Greenfield, who is leading GOP Senator Joni Ernst by 1.8 points on average.

The Michigan House looks ready to flip back to the Democrats as well. Right now the GOP holds 58 seats to the Democrats' 52 but Gov. Gretchen Whitmer carried Oakland County by 17 points in 2018 and the Democrats are fighting hard to pick up seats there and in other suburban districts.

I would call it a much longer shot, but Democrats feel they can take back both the House and Senate in North Carolina, in great part because a federal court declared the old map unconstitutional, the Democrats had a very successful recruiting season and because both Governor Roy Cooper and Biden are surging right now. The Dems need 5 state Senate seats (and 2 are sure things). "The path to netting the other three," wrote McGowan and Askkarinam, "is scattered across the state, with promising races taking place in Raleigh, Winston-Salem, and the Piedmont region. Democrats point to Senate District 24 in Alamance County, where Democratic veteran J.D. Wooten is running against Republican Amy Galey, as a bellwether. Trump carried that district by 12 points in 2016; if Wooten makes it across the finish line, the chamber is likely to follow. In the state House, Democrats need to flip six seats to take a majority. The landscape is a bit rockier than in the Senate, due to a handful of vulnerable incumbents whom the party needs to protect. However, the party has identified nine Republicans they see as vulnerable."

Pennsylvania should be easier, where the state House has 110 Republicans and 93 Dems but with plenty of suburban targets around Philly and Harrisburg for the Democrats to win in, along with Biden. The Democrats are also likely to flip 3 state Senate seats, but they need a 4th (in Lancaster) and if they win it it will mean the anti-red tsunami is bigger than most people expect.

The toughest of the 10 chambers is the Georgia state House, where Democrats need to pick up 16 seats. They'll win seats but probably more like 7 or 8 than 16.

That leaves a chamber that should be a relatively do-able pick up unmentioned: the Florida state Senate, which the top Senate Democrat, Gary Farmer, seems absolutely determined to lose. The state Senate consists of 23 Republicans and 17 Democrats, so the Dems need 3 for a tie and 4 for a majority. It's almost as if they made a deal with the Republicans to go after 2, which will leave the Senate with a 21-19 GOP majority. Early on, the Democrats tried recruiting failed gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink to run for the open SD-20 seat (parts of Hillsborough, Polk and Pasco counties). She declined but the candidate who nearly won the seat against Tom Lee, the retiring incumbent, in 2018 is in it to win it. The state party has not been welcoming, at least in part because Lewis is black and they try to prevent minority candidates from running in "white" districts. (Yes, it's the worst Democratic state party in the country-- or maybe tied for worst with Ohio's.) Right now, it looks like Lewis is going to beat far right nut-job Daniel Burgess, despite Farmer and the state party. That'll make it a tied chamber; one more seat and they have a win.

Dr. Fergie Reid of 90For90, who helped recruit so many of the Florida candidates told me this morning that "Some Democrats are on offense in Florida; many of these Democrats are playing a beautiful style of 'team electoral politics.' 2020 Florida Democrats are contesting 83 of the 84 GOP held State Legislative Districts; 11 out of 11 in the State Senate and 72 out of 73 in the State House. In the 14 GOP held congressional districts, Democrats are contesting 12. Two Republicans were given walkovers,' on the candidate filing deadline date in April, Mario Diaz-Balart in the prime swing district in the state-- CD 25-- and Neal Dunn in CD 2. Recent polling shows serious Biden strength, and serious Trump weakness in Florida. Republicans are fearful of an impending 'shellacking' and rightfully so. Their great fear is losing control. If they lose either the state House or state Senate, Florida Dems will have a say in the next decade’s electoral maps. Kathy Lewis for SD 20 is the 'rate limiting step' to this Democratic 'power possibility' in Florida. Moreover, the state Senate candidates in todo are the key drivers for a potential Biden overperformance throughout the state: Karen Butler for SD 1, Stacey Peters for SD 5, Heather Hunter for SD 7, Scott Fretwell for SD 17, Kathy Lewis for SD 20, Tony Eldon for SD 21, Katherine Norman for SD 23, Corinna Robinson for SD 25 and Rachel Brown for SD 27; the other Florida Senate candidates are already receiving max support. Help the neglected candidates for maximum effect. Sprint to the finish line. Leave no doubt.

Who's missing from this photo-- Matt Gaetz, Ted Yoho, Joe Gruters, Daniel Perez, Bill Galvano, Dane Eagle, Ashley Moody?

The most unpopular governor in America, Ron DeSantis, is not on the ballot. If voters want to make him pay for his pro-COVID/anti-Florida agenda, the can only take it out on his cronies in the legislature. And they should. DeSantis has killed 16,110 Floridians and the state's case total is 760,389-- 35,404 cases per million Floridians, far worse than any big state in the country. On Kathy Lewis' website, is a message about the pandemic: "In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Florida has seen unprecedented numbers of citizens lose their livelihoods and having to navigate an unemployment system that was seemingly designed to deter users from accessing much needed unemployment assistance. Florida’s response to COVID-19 has been disorganized and lacking in measures focused on saving lives. Kathy believes we need a robust and thorough plan developed with the expert advice of scientists and public health professionals to deal with the current pandemic and to prepare Florida for future pandemics with our citizens’ health and safety as our priority."

Bob Lynch is running for the Florida state House held by a top GOP leader-- who is protected by the Florida Democratic Party-- Daniel Perez. Bob explained that "The reason Florida is not on the list is because Florida Democrats made the calculated decision to not be on the list. This was largely led by Gary Farmer, who has a cushy gig in the minority, and he doesn’t want to rock the boat. Cutting deals with Republicans is his job. Representing Florida is not."

"There is," he continued, "a solid chance we flip Georgia, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, and even freakin’ South Caroline Blue.  You’d think that Florida Dems would take advantage of this historic opportunity to go on a full court press to flip the Florida State Senate and House going into a redistricting year. Instead, Gary Farmer and his cronies decided to spend all of their time and money on Senate District 9 and 39 because that’s where their consultants and vendors can get paid the most and send the kickbacks all up the chain. They have not only completely ignored a historic slate of Senate candidates featuring @Butler4FLSen, @KathyLewisforFL, @Rachel_D_Brown, @NormanFlSenate, @CorinnaRobinson, @HeatherForSD7, @fretwellforfl, and @tonyforflorida, they have openly worked against some of them. Any one of these candidates could change the balance of power in Florida for a decade. Yet Gary and Juan Peñalosa have done everything in their power to abandon and torpedo these candidates. At a certain point, you have to ask yourself why?"

One very prominent candidate who is likely to be serving in the legislature next year and asked me not to divulge his name told me that "The Democrats are bringing a water gun to a bazooka fight with the Florida state legislature. Rather than help Democratic candidates win crucial races across the state, they're leaving them high and dry while actively working against candidates challenging Republican authority. It's genuinely disgusting how little party leadership actually wants to take back the state for the Democrats, especially considering Florida is a swing state with redistricting right around the corner. Republicans will fundraise and promote all of their candidates and shower them with buckets of cash to win. While the Democrats will be like 'OMG thanks for running XD' while doing absolutely nothing to help them win. It's embarrassing. One would think with the GOP's agenda sprinting towards fascism, the Dems might want to help out in critical races. But no, they'd rather be in the minority and collect a check. Holy shit what a petulant opposition party!"

Matt Rogers of Politidope-- and a legislative candidate himself in Virginia-- told me that for the last year, he's "been laser-focused on flipping Florida's 29 Electoral College votes for whomever the Democratic nominee ended up being. During that time, I've heard blood-boiling discussion of inspiring Democratic candidates being recruited OUT of races, party leaders wishing black candidates were 'more attractive' and Party 'leaders' themselves going on Twitter can saying they don't want to 'waste' resources on the brave candidates I've been so fortunate to work alongside with. Nevertheless, we persist. We've got only a few days left to raise money (until October 29th at 11:59 PM) for them. Let's do everything we can to help them and, in effect, help flip Florida's 29 Electoral College votes against the fascist in the White House.

Why Is The Florida Democratic Party Working So Hard To Lose?

 

Remember when Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was bragging that his do-nothing response to the pandemic was just what the doctor ordered and how Florida would never be like New York or Italy. Today Florida has had 734,491 confirmed cases of COVID-19 (34,198 cases per million Floridians). New York has had 509,460 cases (26,189 cases per million New Yorkers) and Italy has had 354,950 cases (just 5,873 cases per million Italians). On Sunday Florida, still in the first wave, had 1,870 new cases. New York appears to be in the early phases of Wave II and reported 1,145 new cases. Like Trump, DeSantis has made every single wrong decision about the pandemic since it began, Because of DeSantis and Trump 15,365 Floridians are dead and the state currently has 284,231 active cases, more than any state other than California, which has nearly twice as many people.

DeSantis, the most hated governor in America, isn't on the ballot 3 weeks from today. He's lucky; but his party is on the ballot and voters know who the puppets in the state legislature are. The Florida state Senate consists of 23 Republicans and 17 Democrats. Four seats and the Democrats flip the Senate-- not an easy task... but not an impossible task either. Too bad the Florida Democratic Party doesn't seem interested in doing so.

"The party," former Orlando Congressman Alan Grayson told me yesterday, referring to the state Democratic Party, "should have come together and advocated a pro-survival, pro-health platform including free widespread testing, contact tracing, free state-provided PPE for everyone dealing with the public and all seniors, 'public nuisance' or 'disturbing the peace' enforcement against rule-breakers, free COVID treatment for everyone without insurance, frequent state inspection of nursing homes and senior communities for staff compliance, serious quarantining, selective restrictions tied to local outbreaks, virtual school open to all, and everything else that has been proven to work in places that have beaten the virus. Instead, crickets. Just crickets and funerals."

One of the least-covered scandals of this election cycle is how the head of the Florida Senate Dems, Gary Farmer, attempted to persuade-- rudely-- Rachel Brown into dropping out of an open state Senate race in Lee County to smooth the path for Farmer's Republican girlfriend, Heather Fitzenhagen. Luckily, Brown was not easily intimidated. Farmer's Republican girlfriend lost her primary to a neo-fascist Republican, Ray Rodrigues, and Brown is all that stands between him and another GOP extremist in the state legislature. Farmer is completely dismissive of Brown's campaign and has cut her off from state party funds.

Similarly, Farmer is protecting Trump Florida campaign Chair, Sen. Joe Gruters-- who is also chairman of the Florida Republican Party-- and has done everything he can do to sabotage the campaign of Democrat Katherine Norman, one of the best Democratic candidates fielded by the party this cycle.

Another case of Farmer working as hard as a Republican to make sure the Senate does not flip has been getting some national coverage. Joan Walsh's recent exposé in The Nation, Do Florida Democrats Want to Win the State Senate This Year? tells the story of Kathy Lewis, a distinguished African-American candidate who came close to beating the Republican incumbent last time she ran in a swing district that takes in parts of Hillsborough, Pasco and Polk counties. The Republican incumbent is retiring and the Democratic Party recognized a prime opportunity to flip a seat. They worked hard to recruit, not Kathy but failed gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink. When Sink declined, the party took the district off the map, despite Kathy's candidacy. Many observers say Farmer doesn't like black candidates running in white districts.

Last week, the Tampa Bay Times endorsed Kathy and demonstrated the short-sightedness of the state party. "Kathy Lewis," reads the editorial, "brings a compelling life story and a rich mix of professional and civic experience to this race. Her drive and clear view of the problems Floridians face would bring a fresh jolt of reality to the Senate." Gary Farmer should read the whole endorsement:

Lewis, 59, is an author, speaker and businesswoman who advocates on behalf of families with children with special needs. She was motivated to run for this Senate seat in 2018 after an ordeal with obtaining services for her daughter-- an experience that Lewis said shows the holes and indifference in the social safety net that punishes hard-hit families.

Lewis said her fight for disability rights grew beyond an interest in expanding Medicaid. And she says the coronavirus pandemic exposed the need to deal with social services across the board. She would invest more in education and public health, improve the unemployment benefits process and devise a strategy to address impacts to the budget. She also rightly wants Tallahassee to be more disciplined about preempting local control. Her agenda and infectious energy could bring average residents into the decision-making process and help restore public faith in government.

Republican Danny Burgess, 34, is an attorney and former state House member who served as executive director of the state Department of Veterans' Affairs from 2019 to 2020. Aside from supporting more reliable access to Florida’s jobless benefits system, Burgess doesn’t offer many exciting ideas or stray from the Republican playbook. He supports the costly plan for new transportation corridors, which is unfocused at best.


Lewis would bring a rich life experience to the upper chamber and a history of perseverance. She emerged from an inner-city household in Baltimore to become a financial analyst in both the public and private sectors and a civic leader in school and children’s groups. She has a command of what’s happening on the ground and what should happen at the 30,000-foot level. The Times Editorial Board recommends Kathy Lewis.

Over the weekend, Daily Kos diarist, SemDem, noted that "For the past two decades, there’s one thing the Florida Democrats have gotten really good at: losing." And, as he points out, there are far more registered Democrats in the state than registered Republicans. As of August, 2020:

• Democrats- 5,203,795
• Republicans- 5,020,199
• No Party Affiliation- 3,653,046

The Florida Democratic Party is fairly good at winning seats in overwhelmingly Democratic districts of Miami-Dade, Duval, Broward, Pinellas, Alachua, Orange, Osceola, Leon, Hillsborough, and Palm Beach counties, but would rather not contest races in districts were they need to work hard making a case to non-affiliated voters. They are lazy and incompetent as a party-- which is why it is so refreshing to have candidates up and down the ballot who are not affiliated with the party apparatus, whether state Senate candidates like Kathy Lewis, Rachel Brown and Katherine Norman, state House candidates like Joshua Hicks, Bob Lynch and Anselm Weber or U.S. congressional candidates like Adam Christensen and Cindy Banyai. (By the way, the 2020 ActBlue Florida thermometer on the right will allow you to contribute to any or all of these candidates. Please consider clicking on it.)

Yesterday Rachel Brown-- who isn't in one of those overwhelmingly blue districts-- told me that she only needs $7,000 to get her entire district's voters to click on her website from Facebook Ads. "A $100 donation," she said, "is the equivalent of a volunteer phone banker who calls for 4 hours a day for 7 days a week for 1 week. There are 132,809 registered Democrats in Lee County. I need 121,000 votes to win. This district is definitely flippable. We need help getting the word out. Please sign up for a phone bank or make a donation today. Even if I lose, the information that I put in my ads is necessary for the people to know. I give stats about livable wage, healthcare, climate, affordable housing, COVID-19 in all my ads. If people donate, the money goes to information/education based ads and conversational texting, and blast texts/robo calls reminding left leaning irregular voters to get out to vote."

One of the promising-- future of the Democratic Party-- state legislative candidates, Anselm Weber, is being actively ignored by the Florida party, despite an energetic and compelling campaign in Lee County that will be turning out votes in the presidential, congressional and state Senate races. Yesterday, Weber told me that "In the face of an openly fascist GOP administration, the gatekeepers in the Democratic Party still cede immense ground to the Republicans while actively helping them in key areas. Florida is a swing state with majority Democratic voters. It is deeply negligent in the face of a DeSantis administration that is openly trying to criminalize peaceful protests, refuses to expand Medicaid, and continues to destroy our environment, that the Democrats are not spending as much as they can to help flip the Florida State Legislature. Even if the Democrats win the Presidency and both chambers of Congress, the door is wide open for Republicans to continue their authoritarian and austerity driven agenda in Florida or any other state. The Democrats should take a page from the Republicans and fight for state and local elections as much as they fight for the Presidency."

Another candidate candidate didn't want to go on record but told me that "the party should and can do way more to help down ballot candidates and it's a shame they don't. Whoever is the chair in 2022 needs to commit to truly supporting down ballot candidates-- as many great candidates won't run again because they aren't treated well."

SemDem went on to point out that Farmer is only targeting 2 Senate seats (SD-9 and SD-39), guaranteeing that the state Senate will not flip. A vigorous grassroots movement has a bone to pick with Farmer and the state Party and has helped make sure a Democrat is running in every district. Like most people, SemDem has identified Kathy Lewis as the Democrat who has the best chance to bring the party the crucial 3rd seat that would force the GOP to share power with the Democrats. He points out that her swing district "transverses the I-4 corridor, which is critical for Biden’s Florida campaign... Supporting this race is a no-brainer. Unfortunately, not only has most of the Democratic senate caucus not endorsed her, she told me that two major donors who had pledged money were told not to donate to her campaign. What is going on?

Florida Senator Gary Farmer, who is set to be Democratic Minority Leader in 2021, oversees the Democratic Senate Victory funding. He has ensured that Senate Districts 9 and 39 are flush with money. District 9 challenger Patricia Sigman has been receiving funds from the Florida Democratic Legislative Campaign since March. More importantly, she and District 39 challenger Jose Fernandez received endorsements early on that helped big donors open their checkbooks. Sigman and Fernandez have raised half a million each.

Kathy Lewis never received such treatment. Mr. Farmer has tweeted against spending money on “long shots” that take away from races that he feels can be won. To be fair, he must spend a lot to win both Districts 9 and 39, and this year he must also spend money in District 3 (Tallahassee) and District 37 (South Florida) to ward off surprisingly strong challengers—even though they are in blue areas. The Democratic incumbents for SD-3 and SD-37 have over $300K each.

However, District 20 is far from a long shot. In fact, an internal poll, commissioned by a large donor in September, showed the race to be very competitive. The poll data showed that Lewis’ Republican opponent, Dan Burgess, had an edge until questions were posed from the GOP agenda, such as cutting Medicare, fracking and not fixing former governor, current Sen. Rick Scott and Gov. Ron DeSantis’ unemployment system-- which became an utter disaster in this state after COVID. The poll swung to Lewis by a 24-point margin! With appropriate funding, and Lewis’ plan to digitally micro-target constituents, the district could be in great shape for a flip.

Nonetheless, she not only received the cold shoulder on funding, she also has only managed to get the endorsements of five state senators as of this writing: Annette Taddeo, Lori Burman, Victor Torres, Audrey Gibson, and Bobby Powell. Endorsements are needed to bring in big donor funding. The other 12 Democratic state senators have not endorsed her, and in some cases, stated they wouldn’t. Fergie Reid, Jr. of 90for90.org revealed that Democratic state Sen. Darryl Rousen told him he had a friendly working relationship with Burgess, the Republican candidate, and thought Kathy Lewis wasn’t a strong enough candidate to beat him. I reached out to state Sen. Rousen and left messages, but they were not returned as of this writing.

If the Florida state Senate doesn't flip, it will be Gary Farmer's fault. If Florida fails to deliver its 29 electoral votes to Joe Biden this cycle it will be Gary Farmer's fault. If Florida remains a Republican hellhole it will be Gary Farmer's fault. Debbie Wasserman Schultz ran the Florida Democratic Party into a ditch; Gary Farmer is keeping it there. Whose payroll is Farmer on?

And it isn't just the venality for characters like Wasserman Schultz and Farmer that have turned Florida into such a challenge for Democrats. The party's incompetence is legendary. Adam Christensen, one of the state's rising stars, told me, regretfully that the state is far behind where it should be technologically-- at least in the rural parts of the state the party has been ignoring for years. Recently, his campaign spent $3,500 buying data from the party. "We decided to run tests on this  data to see just how effective it would be. We found that 80% of it was wrong. This included disconnected phone numbers, wrong cell numbers, incorrect addresses or emails ect… Data wins races, and right now Florida Democrats are running blind in the most critical areas-- that is if they are able to pay for this data at all. In my opinion if the Democratic Party of Florida gave out their software to everyone running and taught them how to do constant updates then they would have a phenomenal crowd-sourced operation and would win far more races than they do currently. It’s time to move into the 21st century, and we can’t afford to keep making the same mistakes."

Florida Democratic Party-- Exposed!

State Senate candidate-- and passionate environmental leader-- Katherine Norman will change Tallahassee in ways that will be a transformational joy for the entire state of Florida

 

Congratulations are due Joan Walsh for her powerful and cogent exposé of the crooked, worthless Florida Democratic Party in the new issue of The Nation: Do Florida Democrats Want to Win the State Senate This Year? "Party leaders’ reluctance to support promising challengers, and a penchant for punishing those who complain about that lack of support," she wrote, "provokes the question." Too bad she missed the one about Gary Farmer trying to bully Rachel Brown, a Democrat out of an open seat race because he was screwing the Republican (who lost her primary anyway). Now Farmer refuses to back Brown in the race.

"Florida Democrats," wrote Walsh, "are locked out of state-level power by a GOP trifecta that runs the governor’s office, the House, and the Senate. But they only need to pick up three Senate seats to achieve at least a tie in that chamber, and thus reach a power-sharing arrangement with the GOP, which is especially important as the state takes up redistricting next year. Party leaders and local observers seem to agree that two Democratic candidates have a decent chance to flip GOP-held open seats, in the Miami-Dade and Orlando areas. But a 21-19 balance gets the party very little in terms of legislative clout, particularly when it comes to redistricting. That’s why observers and activists are increasingly perplexed that Florida Democratic leaders and donors haven’t coalesced around at least one or two more Democrats whom concentrated support might push across the finish line, especially if November turns into a blue wave election. Which it could. The once-popular Governor Ron De Santis now has the second-worst Covid-approval rating of the nation’s governors, right behind Iowa Republican Kim Reynolds. Meanwhile, Joe Biden is running ahead of Donald Trump in a state Hillary Clinton lost by only one point, largely on his strength with seniors. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg just announced plans to pump $100 million into Florida to elect Democrats."

As you may be aware by now, Blue America is supporting some of the most promising challengers in Florida, including three amazing women running for the state Senate, the aforementioned Rachel Brown, the amazing Katherine Norman, who is taking on Joe Gruters, the chairman of the Florida Republican Party and a top Trump lackey, and the candidate Walsh concentrated on in her piece, Kathy Lewis. Clicking on the ActBlue thermometer on the right will show you all of our Florida candidates and allow you to contribute to all or any of their campaigns. Building the Florida progressive bench is incredibly important.

Most of the confusion about why the state Democratic Senate leadership isn’t championing more challengers converges on Kathy Lewis, a writer and disability-rights activist who ran in a red district in 2018 and came closer to winning than anyone expected, taking 46.5 percent of the vote in this traditionally Republican, rural, urban, and suburban district, even though she was outspent more than 10-1 by a longtime GOP incumbent. Now he’s stepping down, prompting a special election for an open seat in this Tampa–St. Petersburg area district anchored by Hillsborough County. With more money and experience behind her, Lewis and her supporters believe she has a solid chance of victory this time, but party leaders don’t seem to see it that way.

And pointing out her lack of party support is, confoundingly, making it harder for her to raise money, Lewis told me. At least two major donors told the Senate District 20 candidate directly that party leaders warned them away from her campaign, because she has talked to local and national news outlets, including The Nation, about her struggles to get state Democrats to take her campaign seriously. More than one Florida Democrat has suggested she stop talking to the press about her travails, if she wants to gain support.

“Nobody’s gonna tell me what to say,” Lewis told me. “I can’t be bought.”

Lewis is not the only Florida Democratic candidate to feel abandoned by party leaders. After the State Democratic Environmental Caucus and the voter-access group 90 for 90 collaborated on recruiting 36 challengers for state House and Senate races-- one for all but one seat-- Senate Democratic minority leader Gary Farmer, who drives official caucus spending on 2020 races, belittled their efforts.

“I’m guided by science & reality,” Farmer tweeted. “Contesting every race is great if you have $ to do so. We simply don’t & won’t until we achieve majority. When you spend on races that are long shots you take $ from races that can be won.” Beth Matuga, a consultant for Senate Victory, a group representing Florida Senate Democrats, also replied defensively on Twitter, arguing that “the caucus has grown in 10yrs from 12 to 17, with very real opportunity to get to 19 this cycle…I’m tired of people pretending like contesting downballot seats is a new idea when they’ve been ignoring it for 10yrs.” It’s true that the caucus has clawed back seats, but if it only gets to 19 this cycle, critics note, it cedes redistricting entirely to the GOP, which will then draw new maps unlikely to give the Democrats a chance to win the Senate anytime soon. (I got pushback on that notion from one Florida source, who says that with a slim two-vote majority, Republicans won’t be able to sacrifice any incumbents to change district lines, which they did in 2011, after the GOP landslide of 2010, because they had a larger edge.)

Down With Tyranny blogger Howie Klein, long a pull-no-punches advocate for the party’s progressive insurgency, retorted in a post, “If There Was No Florida Democratic Party, It Would Be Easier For Democrats To Win.” Klein specifically cited Lewis’s lack of support, among others, as an example.

There is clearly major friction, in Florida and elsewhere, between a new wave of outside groups plus longtime activists who believe Democrats should be contesting many more, if not every, state legislative seat, and party leadership, which tends to fight to protect incumbents. “This is a real tension,” a leader of an outside group working in Florida told me. “Running in every district, if it doesn’t come with the necessary support, isn’t strategic.” On the other hand, party leaders tend to be over-concerned with protecting incumbents, along with their own leadership positions, and thus often define “winnable” races too narrowly, this person said, adding, “Kathy Lewis is exactly the kind of candidate we should support.”

I watched this play out in Virginia in 2017, where by most accounts Democratic House Caucus leaders, and even some progressive activists, thought they could pick up roughly eight GOP seats in the House of Delegates, though they were down by 16. Yet many more Virginia challengers argued, loudly, that they deserved support. Ultimately, Democrats won 15 seats, almost taking over leadership, thanks to brave insurgents, the intervention of new outside groups, and the emerging blue wave that in 2019 gave Virginia a Democratic trifecta, with control of the State House, Senate, and governor’s office.

Florida Democrats indeed look to be outmatched in terms of fundraising this year. The Florida Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (FDLCC), the arm that supports Senate candidates, had raised just under $2 million by the end of August, compared to $7.1 million hauled in by the Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, according to the Tampa Bay Times. In 2018, the Democrats were outspent $46 million to $18 million.

So the party is investing in flipping two Senate seats, also, like Lewis’s, left open by the departure of GOP incumbents. Leaders backed Representative Javier Fernández to pursue an open seat in Miami-Dade and Monroe counties, and put money behind him. In the Orlando area, officials recruited and invested heavily in labor attorney Patricia Sigman. In that Orlando race, the two parties have already spent more than $1 million, combined. Senate Democrats are also defending incumbent Jose Javier Rodríguez of northeastern Miami-Dade, who won narrowly in 2016 and faces a well-funded GOP challenger, as well as an open seat in greater Tallahassee, recruiting Representative Loranne Ausley.

In Lewis’s District 20, party leaders tried to recruit Alex Sink, the state’s former chief financial officer and 2014 candidate for governor. Sink declined, and has endorsed Lewis. Lewis is beginning to rack up other meaningful endorsements, including four Senate incumbents-- but Florida’s Senate has a 17-seat Democratic delegation, which means that with only seven weeks before the election, 13 of them are still AWOL. And she has received nothing from the official Senate Victory funding arm, the FDLCC.

Meanwhile, Lewis’s GOP opponent, former state representative Danny Burgess, has raised more than $270,000 so far to Lewis’s $44,000, and just went on television with his first ad.

Weirdly, even some of Lewis’s supporters are reluctant to talk about her struggle for funding. Several Lewis backers ignored my outreach. One incumbent senator referred me to Senate minority leader Gary Farmer, instead of returning my call. Farmer, who controls Democratic Senate spending and has not endorsed Lewis, did not return two messages. A representative from Senate Victory stressed that decisions about individual races are based on data, adding, “While Kathy Lewis is a great candidate, the numbers show better opportunities for pickups in other areas of the state.”

Most disturbing, Lewis, who is African American, says she’s been criticized for making race an issue, when she herself has, as far as I know or can determine via Google searches, done no such thing. The issue of race did move front and center in July, when a local white Democratic leader said on a Zoom call with Black Democrats that Lewis’s race was “not high on our list because of where the polling was. What we do is, we prioritize based on our overall goals. White, Black, brown—it doesn’t matter who that candidate is, it’s where they fall on our election priority list.” A local Black Democratic activist protested: “I just think any Black woman in the race right now stands a chance and should be given a little more money than you might think they need. I just feel that you should give them more money!”

It must be said: After this conversation drew national attention, Lewis’s endorsements by local Democratic leaders began to surge. Money, not so much.

Lewis supporter Dr, Fergie Reid Jr., of the group 90 for 90, has no qualms about discussing the role of race in the lack of support for Lewis. During his many phone calls advocating for recruited candidates, he intermittently heard the phrase “minority-access district,’’ which he took to mean majority-black (which Lewis’s district is not, though the number of nonwhite voters is continually climbing). And he said so, explaining that he understood that to be a Jim Crow euphemism for a “Black District”-- or, alternatively, an “acceptable district for a Black person to pursue.” He received no pushback, he says, “only embarrassing affirmation.”

Whatever the role of race, many smart Democrats are increasingly questioning the Senate caucus’s neglect of Lewis’s campaign.

One Democratic operative who has worked in Florida said, “If you don’t compete, you can’t win. Senate District 20 should be a top target. It’s in the heart of the I-4 corridor that has seen strengthening support for Democrats this year, it saw strong Dem performance in 2018, and it could be the key to winning the Senate, when few competitive seats are up.”

This morning Rachel Brown reminded me that "Kathy Lewis won over 87,000 votes last time, more than 46%, without any help from the state party... That's what showed me that grassroots candidates like myself can give the Republicans a run for their money without state party help... We have to fight because our entire nation depends on the way Florida votes this year. Yes, I have a personal fear of Ray Rodriguez winning and destroying Florida but the heart of the matter is what the public knows. If the public knows that an awful man is in control, and they don't like him and they revolt, great. If The public thinks everything is fine when in reality it is not, well that's even more dangerous. Also, when you don't support a candidate financially you are sending them into battle with nothing. Yes I can get creative, but I'm going to need at least 20,000 to reach all the voters I need to reach and that's still incredibly low for a senate race." I'll just leave off here with another reminder that readers can support Rachel Brown, Kathy Lewis and Katherine Norman in their state Senate races by clicking on the thermometer above or right here. Every voter they contact and persuade in their own races, is another voter-- whether they win or lose this year-- against Trump in November. If Rachel, Kathy and Katherine win their races, the GOP no longer controls the state of Florida. That simple.

The Sheer Incompetence Of The Florida Democratic Party Could Sentence All Of Us To 4 More Years Of Trump

On Friday, the Tampa Bay Times published another stinging indictment of the venal and incompetent Florida Democratic Party in the form of a question from top state Senate candidate Kathy Lewis: I can lift Biden and flip state Senate. Why won’t my party help?.

Kathy (who has been endorsed by Blue America) is running for an open seat to represent parts of 3 counties Hillsborough, Pasco and Polk. The Hillsborough part of the county has already turned blue and Hillary beat Trump there 50.4% to 46.0%. And Polk County is trending blue. Trump won the whole district 115,750 (52.3%) to 97,399 (44.0%). In 2018, running against incumbent Tom Lee, Kathy garnered 46.5% of the vote, significantly better than Hillary did there. But the Democrats decided to take this open swing seat off the table and allow the GOP to win it without a fight. That, in a nut shell is the Florida Democratic Party. Republicans outnumber Democrats among registered voters, but it is independents who will decide this race-- and independents are not happy with Republicans in Florida.

The district is suffering under Republican mishandling of the pandemic. Hillsborough County is the 4th worst-hit on the state with 210 new cases yesterday for a total of 36,784 (more cases than either Ireland or Austria). Polk County is is the 9th worst county in the state (111 new cases yesterday, for a total of 16,803) and Pasco had 40 new cases yesterday and now has a total of 7,989 cases, 16th worst. The 3 counties have over 1,000 deaths. Many people blame Trump, his puppet governor DeSantis and DeSantis' puppet state legislature. Without the Florida Democratic Party, this would be a very good year for smart Democrats like Kathy Lewis, who has a lot of what she didn't have last time she ran: name recognition.

Kathy told the reporter that she feels the state Democratic Party could be doing more to support her. "Her logic is simple: she’s a Black woman running in the Interstate-4 corridor of the country’s largest swing state. She represents a crucial Democratic constituency in a crucial part of the national electoral map. 'If we drive our race, we drive Biden,' Lewis said. 'Not helping us to the fullest extent potentially hurts Biden.' One of the state’s legislative bodies also hangs in the balance. Republicans currently hold a 23-to-17 advantage in the Senate. If Democrats flip three seats, the party could share power with Republicans in the chamber. For the first time in decades, Democrats could help set the legislative agenda in Tallahassee."

After the Florida Democratic Party failed in their efforts to recruit Alex Sink, they wrote the crucial district off entirely, even though Kathy is an extremely attractive candidate. The Florida Republican Party has given Kathy's opponent $9,500. The Florida Democratic Party has give Kathy ZERO. You can contribute to Kathy's race by clicking on the 2020 Florida state thermometer on the right.

"(Burgess) has the full force of the party on his side," Lewis told the Times/Herald. "There’s clearly a complete difference on the Democrat side, for whatever their reasons are."

This year, the Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee has raised over $7.1 million. The Florida Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has pulled in just a fraction of that: $1.9 million or so.

...Spending heavily in a relative long shot district may not be sound strategy. But all summer, Democrats have said their recruiting efforts across the state will help Joe Biden turn the state blue in November.

"Politics is driven from the bottom up," Terrie Rizzo, the chair of the Florida Democratic Party, said in June. "Having a local candidate running talking about local issues, talking about how the issues affect local issues, helps drives turnout."

Democrats are running in 140 of 141 legislative races this cycle, with a 141st candidate fighting in court to get on the ballot.

Rizzo is parroting phrases she's been beaten over the head with. She and her deputy, Juan Peñalosa, have fought the theory she's "espousing" and the recruitment of candidates by the Environmental Caucus and 90 For 90. They didn't hep in recruitment and were largely negative and now they are trying to strangle those candidates in the crib, denying them access not just to party funds but to their district voter files. Both Rizzo and Peñalosa are rumored to be close to being fired, but by then it will be too late for many of the candidates whose campaigns they are sabotaging. If the Florida GOP decided who would run the Florida Democratic Party, they could never find anyone's "good" as Rizzo and Peñalosa.

Lewis said the party should follow its own logic: If Democrats want to help Biden, they should help her.

"I don’t think about winning or losing, I think about telling the story and carving the way in the forest," Lewis said. "I’m trying to over-perform so that Biden can get there."

Fergie Reid, Jr. said his progressive activism organization, 90for90.org, helped recruit dozens of candidates this election cycle in Florida state House and Senate races. To Reid, Senate District 20 is an example of how the party’s recruitment efforts could go to waste if the candidates aren’t supported.

And the activist said in 2020, with systemic racism at the front of many voters’ minds, it’s incumbent on Democrats to invest in Black women.

"They’re not investing in Senate 20 the way they’re investing in Senate 9 and 39," Reid said. "That may or may not have something to do with the candidate being Kathy Lewis. I think it does, and I don’t think it’s a good look for the party."

GOP Death Cult Convention Celebrates Trump's Leadership-- As U.S. Hurtles Towards 200,000 COVID-Deaths

Tuesday, which was the second day of the #CocaineConvention, was just another normal pandemic day in the USA-- another 1,291 Americans killed by Trump and the Republican Party and another 40,098 new cases. These are the ten worst anti-hero Trumpist governors causing their states the most unnecessary contagion and how many new cases they caused as the GOP Convention kicked off:

• Greg Abbott +6,803-- 21,231 cases per million Texans
• Ron DeSantis +2,673-- 28,192 cases per million Floridians
• Brian Kemp +2,101-- 24,333 cases per million Georgians
• Mike Parson +1,060-- 12,692 cases per million Missourans
• Henry McMaster +937-- 22,042 cases per million South Carolinians
• Doug Ducey +859-- 27,377 cases per million Arizonans
• Bill Lee +813-- 21,293 cases per million Tennesseans
• Tate Reeves +801-- 26,614 cases per million Mississippans
• Kevin Stitt +650-- 13,690 cases per million Sooners
• Kim Reynolds +631-- 18,161 cases per million Iowans

For sake of comparison, the worst hit Europeans country, Spain, has 9,051 cases per million Spaniards. Yesterday, Texas and Florida led the nation in reported new COVID-deaths, respectively 206 and 186. All the western European countries combined didn't have as many deaths yesterday as either Texas or Florida:

• Spain +52
• UK +16
• France +16
• Germany +9
• Netherlands +5
• Italy +4
• Belgium +4
• Portugal +4
• Switzerland +1
• Greece +1

Sweden, Ireland, Austria, Denmark, Norway, and Finland all reported no new deaths on Tuesday.

All these numbers point to a failure of American political leadership-- a failure by Trump, first and foremost-- and a failure by his puppet governors. Harsh? Not at all. Ron DeSantis-- who forced his state's schools to reopen this month in the middle of a deadly, out of control pandemic infected 8,585 school children-- bringing the Florida total to 48,730 cases among children in the worst-run of big states in America. DeSantis ordered that any school not holding in person classes at least 5 days a week would be cut off from state funding. Many Floridians are asking if DeSantis should be tried for murder. Anselm Weber is the Democratic Party nominee for the open Florida state House seat representing HD-76 (Fort Myers Beach, Bonita Springs, Sanibel) He told us that "It is downright diabolical what DeSantis is doing with school reopenings. It doesn't take a genius to realize sending kids and school staff back to work during a pandemic, while not mandating masks, will lead to significant rises in COVID deaths. Israel was handling the virus relatively well before they reopened schools, which then resulted in a massive uptick in cases. Florida has already been the global epicenter for COVID-19 roughly a month ago, and we are in absolutely no standing to reopen schools. Moreover, DeSantis is using this opportunity to cut school funding for schools that wish not to reopen. The GOP is intentionally allowing massive COVID deaths while using this as a pretext to support their ghoulish austerity driven ideology."

Kathy Lewis is looking like a winner in a Tampa Bay area open seat district. She has also noticed what DeSantis is up to. "This is a sad situation for all," she told me yesterday. "There is no correct way that I am aware of to handle the back-to-school dilemma during a pandemic. But Governor DeSantis has put our children's lives and their parents' and teachers' livelihoods at risk by forcing a return to in-person classes. Parents and teachers are looking for well-thought direction from their elected leaders, not just offhand orders to 'figure it out.' For instance, this plan does not consider children who need specialized curricula, such as those with disabilities, who are being left adrift by the state while their teachers and parents struggle to find ways to accommodate them and keep all their students safe. I fully expect we will see a preventable rise in the number of new COVID cases and related deaths in early September-- all a result of this unconscionable decision requiring school districts to trade the safety of their students and teachers for desperately needed funding."

After Night Two of the GOP Lie-Fest, Glenn Kessler and his Washington Post team of fact checkers called it "another tsunami of untruths" and singled out 19 particular big lies.

And right after the second night's festivities Post reporter Touluse Olorunnipa began his analysis by noting that "Faced with a pandemic that has killed more than 175,000 Americans, President Trump used glitzy video and misleading testimonials to spin a tale of heroism and resolve far removed from the grim reality of a country in the throes of an uncontrolled public health crisis. At the Republican National Convention on Monday, Trump was hailed as a bold and lifesaving leader who 'was right' on the novel coronavirus while Democrats, doctors and pundits were wrong from the beginning. One campaign-style video that aired during the convention hailed Trump as the 'one leader' who stood up to the virus while quoting Democratic figures who played down the severity of the virus in its early stages."

It’s a revisionist version of recent history belied by hours of videotape in which the president minimized the threat of the virus for months, falsely predicted that it would “disappear” with warmer weather, promoted several unproven miracle cures, pushed states to reopen before meeting federal government benchmarks, equivocated on mask-wearing, defied social distancing guidelines and repeatedly told Americans that everything was under control.

With the pandemic still ravaging the country just 10 weeks before Election Day, the president is mounting his most ambitious effort yet to change Americans’ minds about his handling of the crisis-- relying on his background in reality television and show business to create an alternative reality that edits out his mistakes and magnifies those of his opponents.

“The RNC is taking a ‘Mission Accomplished’ approach to coronavirus, but the fact [Trump] can’t even hold a regular convention says otherwise,” said Amanda Carpenter, a former aide to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and a Trump critic who wrote a book titled Gaslighting America: Why We Love It When Trump Lies To Us.

“American life as we know it has been shut down since last March because of his magical and paranoid style of thinking, campaigning and governing,” she said.

While Trump has previously touted his coronavirus response with misleading videos, charts and quotes during news briefings and in campaign ads, the Republican National Convention gives him a platform unique in its scope and reach. Over the course of four nights, the GOP will have 10 hours of prime time coverage, with cable and broadcast networks airing large chunks of the program uninterrupted.

It is perhaps Trump’s last best chance to present an unfiltered affirmative case for a second term in a race where a majority of voters disapprove of his handling of a pandemic that has battered the economy and upended Americans’ lives.





It is likely to be a difficult task.

Government forecasts predict the country’s coronavirus death toll could surpass 200,000 by mid-September; schools continue to struggle with reopening plans as mini-outbreaks across the country shut down classes and frustrate parents; the economy continues to suffer from recession-level unemployment and desperation; a safe and effective vaccine is at least months away; and a flu season looms that public health experts say will only worsen an already precarious situation.

Trump’s positive portrayal this week of his pandemic response is also undermined by the fact that the convention is mostly virtual despite the president’s best efforts to have an in-person gathering. Still, Trump has found ways to flout public health guidance or at least to show a disregard for social distancing. He plans to have a large crowd at the White House to watch his speech Thursday on the South Lawn.

The broadly accepted view that Trump has mishandled the virus is a political liability for the president, as polls show his Democratic rival, Joe Biden, leading nationally and with key voting groups that will determine the outcome. A Washington Post-ABC News poll this month found that nearly two-thirds of registered voters say they are worried that they or their families might contract the coronavirus, and half of Republicans expressed that concern. Many of those respondents plan to vote for Biden.

Much of Monday’s convention program appeared designed to appeal to such concerned voters by convincing them they should not worry.

During one of his appearances in Monday’s program, Trump spoke with a group of front-line workers to thank them for their efforts in combating the virus.

“Well, I’m for the nurses, I’m for the doctors,” Trump said. “We just have to make this China virus go away, and it’s happening.”

The remarks echoed comments Trump has been making since January, in which he has repeatedly claimed the virus was receding or under control as it spread through the country.

“We have it totally under control,” Trump said in January when asked by a CNBC host whether he worried about a pandemic. “It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

A month later, he praised his administration for “a pretty good job we’ve done,” predicting that the number of confirmed cases in the country would soon decline to zero. The next day he declared “one day-- it’s like a miracle-- it will disappear.”

As cases surged by the thousands in the spring and throughout the summer-- leaving the United States with the most coronavirus deaths in the world-- Trump continued to tout his own handling of the virus and refer to it in the past tense. He regularly made announcements of breakthrough treatments that ultimately did not prove effective, including the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine and ultraviolet rays.

He held rallies and avoided wearing a mask at a time when public health experts said social distancing and face coverings were the country’s best tools to contain the virus.

More recently, Trump has pushed for schools to reopen, claiming falsely that children are essentially immune from catching and spreading the virus. Multiple schools have shut down in-person learning in recent weeks as hundreds of students contracted the virus. The president continues to promote the false idea that case numbers are rising mostly because of more testing. And on Sunday, Trump called an impromptu news conference to announce a “historic breakthrough,” touting a convalescent plasma treatment about which scientists have expressed doubt.

In the video that aired at the convention Monday, Trump was praised for instituting travel restrictions on China and leading an effort to quickly produce personal protective equipment and a vaccine. In the narrator’s telling, only Trump’s perceived opponents and critics were at fault for the country’s predicament.

“From the very beginning, Democrats, the media and the World Health Organization got coronavirus wrong,” the narrator says in the video, which features clips of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) and New York Mayor Bill de Blasio commenting on the novel virus in February and early March.

The video, like others Trump has touted, does not include comments from the president in February, when he publicly dismissed concerns about the virus despite receiving briefings and warnings from top aides and the intelligence community. Trump also praised Chinese President Xi Jinping in January for “transparency” in comments that are now out of step with the president’s tough-on-China stance.

Democrats, who used much of their convention last week to slam Trump as mishandling the pandemic response, said Monday’s program was proof that the president continued to lack a coherent plan to solve the country’s topmost problem.

“The truth is that his failed leadership has needlessly cost over 177,000 Americans their lives, tens of millions of Americans their jobs, and left the United States the hardest hit country by the pandemic in the whole world,” Biden deputy campaign manager Kate Bedingfield said in a statement.

Trump has been his chief spokesman in defending his coronavirus response-- with his own public health experts regularly contradicting him publicly-- but this week’s convention provided an opportunity for the president to showcase other voices that support his boasts of handling the crisis flawlessly.

“As a health-care professional, I can tell you without hesitation, Donald Trump’s quick action and leadership saved thousands of lives during covid-19,” said Amy Johnson Ford, a nurse in West Virginia, who spoke of the Trump administration’s move to expand access to telemedicine.

Though public health experts have criticized the president as failing to take the virus seriously at the beginning of the year, Ford said Trump “recognized the threat this virus presented for all Americans early on and made rapid policy changes.”

Other speakers praised Trump for his administration’s efforts to ramp up production of PPE and testing kits, countering criticism he has received for the country’s shortages at the height of the pandemic.

Trump tried to cast criticism of his response as partisan politicking, using a speech in Charlotte to accuse Democrats of locking down states to hurt his electoral prospects.

“These Democrat governors love shutdowns until the election is over because they want to make our numbers look as bad as possible for the economy,” Trump said during a 50-minute speech that included several baseless charges.

Nancy Rosenblum, a professor of ethics in politics and government at Harvard University, said the president’s willingness to embrace conspiracy theories during a pandemic has hampered the country’s ability to mount an effective public health response. It’s a far cry from the traditional response to a crisis, in which Americans band together across political lines, she said.

“It’s a kind of polarized politics that has now reached down into every aspect of our lives, even to life itself,” said Rosenblum, co-author of A Lot of People Are Saying: The New Conspiracism and the Assault on Democracy.

In a second video that aired during the convention, the narrator took on a more bipartisan tone while still praising Trump’s “swift action” to save lives during the pandemic.

“We are America. Despite unpredictable events, we as Americans work together to overcome challenges and write our own stories,” the narrator said.

But with the death toll continuing to mount and just weeks to go before voting begins in several states, Trump’s attempt to rewrite the script will have limited impact on voters, Carpenter said.

“Four nights of Trumptastic reality TV won’t change the dystopian reality we are living with Donald Trump as president,” she said. “People believe their own eyes and ears over Trump.”

The number of deaths is likely to surpass the benchmark Trump set for success earlier this year just ahead of the election.

“If we can hold that down to 100,000... it’s a horrible number, maybe even less, but to 100,000, so we have between 100 and 200,000, we all together have done a very good job,” he said during a March 29 news conference.

The president, who is to meet with medical professionals Wednesday to discuss the pandemic, has said he will use his acceptance speech at the convention Thursday to set the record straight on his handling of the crisis.

“So we’ll be talking, because really the job that we’ve done is incredible,” Trump said Monday in Charlotte. “It’s incredible, and none of us get any credit for it, and that’s okay.”

As Ezra Klein wrote yesterday, the convention has been "bizarre, unnerving, and unprecedented. It was banal, predictable, and expected... What is there to say upon hearing Trump described as 'the bodyguard of Western civilization?' It’s not an argument so much as a loyalty oath, an offering cut from the speaker’s dignity and burnt for the pleasure of the Dear Leader himself. But the outrageousness is the point. Protest and you’re triggered-- just another oversensitive lib who can’t take a joke. Ignore it and you’re complicit. To care is to lose. The Republican Party on display Monday night didn’t represent an ideology or a governing agenda. It was a personality cult, and a tired one at that. Republicans, in a break with tradition, refused to write a party platform. They chose, instead, to recycle their 2016 platform. But the delegates agreed that if they had met to fashion an actual agenda, they 'would have undoubtedly unanimously agreed to reassert the Party’s strong support for President Donald Trump and his Administration,' and as such, 'the Republican Party has and will continue to enthusiastically support the President’s America-first agenda.'... The problem for Republicans is that the main thing Trump has told them to support is himself. There are no detailed policy proposals, much less a coherent ideology or set of governing principles. And so speech after speech followed the same template: How was America going to stop the coronavirus? By reelecting Donald Trump. How was it going to revive its economy? By reelecting Donald Trump. How was it going to ensure domestic harmony? By reelecting Donald Trump. The contradiction at the heart of the convention, of course, is that Donald Trump is currently president. I’m dead serious. How would reelecting Trump resolve these crises that Trump has proven unable to resolve-- and has, in many cases, worsened-- in office? No one even took a shot at that Rubik’s cube. Instead, the speakers awkwardly talked around the fact of Trump’s incumbency. He was presented, strangely, as both incumbent and challenger; the man who had fixed America’s problems, but also the man needed to fix an America beset by more problems than ever... The core of Trump’s agenda has always been untethering American politics from factual reality, and among Republicans, at least, he’s been startlingly successful. The convention is a loyalty test for Republicans, and a reality check for the rest of us. What are they willing to say? What are we prepared to believe? Do we still have it in us to be surprised?"