How Incompetent Do You Have To Be To Keep Losing To Florida Republicans? Let's Take A Look

 

How does the FDP keep losing to this batch of dogshit?

On Friday, Florida reported 5,245 new cases of COVID-19, bringing the already horrific state total to 832,625-- 38,767 cases per million Floridians. 52 more Floridians died from the infection on Friday-- so all told 17,016 Floridians who have been killed on the alter of Republican ideology. So far. It's probably going to get much, much worse.

You may have noticed-- Florida is a mess. And it's not just that Trump won and that 2 Democratic congresswomen in solidly blue districts in Miami-Dade-- one D+5 and one D+6-- were defeated by Republicans. The Florida Democratic Party, which some time this cycle sank below the Ohio Democratic Party to become the worst state party anywhere in America, failed up and down the ballot. Some attribute it to incompetence; some attribute it to venality and self-serving. I can't see how anyone could make the case it is anything other than the toxic combination which has laid the party so low.

Aside from losing to Trump, they managed to lose every single attempt to flip a seat in Congress, in the state House and in the state Senate. Although, to be honest, "attempt" applies they actually tried to accomplish something. Did they, though?

Trump won the state 5,646,949 (51.2%) to 5,269,926 (47.8%). As of August 31, Florida's party registration looked like this:

• Democrats: 5,203,795
• Republicans: 5,020,199
• independents: 3,653,046

Two problems come to mind. Did the FDP turn out their voters? Did the FDP fail to persuade voters with no party affiliation that Biden was the better-- or at least the less badd-- candidate? In 2016 Hillary also took 47.8% of the vote-- so the exact percentage Biden took-- while Trump increased his percentage from 49.1% to 51.2%.

Of Florida's 67 counties, Biden won 12, an increase of 3 over the 9 Hillary won. These were the 12 Biden counties with their 2020 numbers followed by their 2016 numbers:

• Alachua- Biden: 89,527 (62.7%); Hillary: 75,370 (59.0%)
• Broward- Biden: 617,689 (64.8%); Hillary: 546,956 (66.5%)
• Miami-Dade- Biden: 617,289 (53.4%); Hillary: 623,006 (63.7%)
• Duval- Biden: 251,952 (51.2%); Hillary: 210,061 (49.0%)
• Gadsden- Biden: 16,139 (67.9%); Hillary: 14,994 (67.9%)
• Hillsborough- Biden: 374,714 (52.7%); Hillary: 306,422 (51.5%)
• Leon- Biden: 103,364 (63.5%); Hillary: 91,936 (60.5%)
• Orange- Biden: 394,602 (61.0%); Hillary: 329,579 (60.4%)
• Osceola- Biden: 97,157 (56.4%); Hillary: 85,287 (60.9%)
• Palm Beach- Biden: 432,117 (56.1%); Hillary: 371,411 (56.5%)
• Pinellas- Biden: 277,191 (49.4%); Hillary: 233,327 (47.5%)
• Seminole- Biden: 132,213 (50.8%); Hillary: 105,611 (47.1%)

South Florida-- the heart of the FDP-- was the problem. The big 3-- Palm Beach Broward and Miami-Dade-- all under-performed, and in Miami-Dade's case, drastically so. While Democrat performance increased in most of the counties, it really fell apart in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach. Trump increased his Palm Beach vote from 270,762 (41.2%) in 2016 to 333,927 (43.3%) and in Miami-Dade from 333,666 (34.1%) in 2016 to 532,460 (46.1%). Why? Why so different, for example, in Alachua County where Democratic performance increased so smartly?

The FDP seems to have missed the class in Politics 101 where they teach you that if you don't play, you don't win. They backed avery narrow subset of mostly mediocre candidates and left most of the state to the Republicans, uncontested. When Janelle Christensen of the Florida Environmental Caucus and Fergie Reid of 90For90 stepped in to recruit candidates for every legislative district the FDP flipped out (in a bad way, in some cases extremely negatively and in others just deciding to ignore the candidates altogether).

Janelle Christensen of the state Environmental Caucus, who is being boosted for the state party job now, reiterated that "Running candidates EVERYWHERE, even in red districts, did not have the overwhelming results that I would have liked. However, we did see marked improvement in Democratic turnout in historically red districts. Collier county, for example, had over 90% of the registered Democrats show up to vote. Lee county and Sumnter also were very impressive. If historically blue counties had shown up in the way they did for Clinton, we would have seen the impact. It seems that we had the Trump Administration scared that he would lose his 'home state'... and we forced them to spend a lot of time and money here in Florida. If that means he lost margins elsewhere, even in other states like Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, then it was worth the effort. Please note, many of our candidates had a budget of about $10,000... and their Republican opponents spent one million in several of the state House races. That says they were scared."

In Alachua County, congressional candidate Adam Christensen was basically ignored by the FDP and the DCCC. His exciting, super-active grassroots campaign generated so much heat that Alachua and his whole district came into play. He didn't win but he did better than any Democrat ever had previously in the district and forced Trump to campaign there three times, three times that he could have been campaigning in Arizona, Georgia or Pennsylvania.

What Christensen accomplished was spectacular for this election cycle. "We ran as close to a perfect race as we could have in a +9 R district in Florida," he told me this morning. "We turned out over 80% of Democrats in Alachua, Clay, and Marion County (The 3 most populous counties in our district). We outperformed the average Democratic candidate in Florida by nearly 7% in one of the most heavily Republican counties in the state (Clay County). We also flipped nearly 8% of Republicans in Clay. On top of that we raised $225,000 completely grassroots. Our average donation was less than $23. We made over 120,000 calls, knocked on 10,000 doors in Clay County and successfully proved a new model for running in rural/Republican areas in Florida."

But that isn't all Christensen and his team accomplished. He also tested the standard Democrat data (NGP Van) and found that nearly 80% of it was wrong in Republican areas. "We bought Republican data for Clay to test it out and found that it was almost 3x more effective. It appears that the reason Democrats got absolutely crushed in Florida is because Republicans could spend $1 to $3 Democrats spent and get the same effect. The Florida Democratic Party also breached their contract with us a week before the election by refusing to release Republican data to us for us to send final persuasion messages. No amount of money or organizing can overcome that. By laying this groundwork we set the stage for 2022 when redistricting happens and a new congressional seat is drawn through Gainesville towards Tampa. We also did all of this without the help of the party or DCCC."

 

In their Wednesday election analysis of Florida, the NY Times, noted that most of the counties in Florida swung further right, "allowing him to win the state with a margin that is nearly three times what he had four years ago." They also identified Miami-Dade as the big problem, Biden underperforming in many precincts with a majority Hispanic population, particularly those in the Cuban-American communities of Miami-Dade County, which supported overwhelmingly. "The surge among Cuban-American voters boosted Mr. Trump’s vote totals in the county, where he picked up nearly 200,000 more votes than four years ago."

One of those districts was the one where Bob Lynch was running in, trying to oust GOP power-monger Dan Perez, a politician the FDP isn't interested in ousting.

The FDP should have been focused like a laser on flipping the state Senate-- thereby stopping the GOP from gerrymandering Florida for the next decade. They only needed to slip 3 seats. Instead, they targeted two, giving up in advance. The obvious district they should have contested was SD-20 (Hillsborough, Pasco and Polk counties) where Kathy Lewis had run well before and where the FDP had tried to recruit Alex Sink, who declined. When she declined, racists inside the FDP, decided an African-American candidate like Lewis couldn't win the district and they abandoned it. The biggest part of the district is in Hillsborough County and Lewis won there 63,094 to 58,024. She needed FDP help in red-leaning Pasco and Polk counties. They refused.

The FDP spent over a million dollars on Patricia Sigman's campaign in Seminole and Volusia counties and on the campaign of lobbyist Javier Fernandez in Miami-Dade and Monroe counties. They spent zero on Kathy Lewis' race. The results:

• Patricia Sigman- 47.6%
• Kathy Lewis- 45.16%
• Javier Fernandez- 42.79%

I'd also like to mention another state Senate candidate Blue America backed besides Lewis-- progressive Katherine Norman, who ran against the chairman of the Florida RepublicanParty, Joe Gruters, who the FDP didn't want to anger. They refused to help Norman in any way and she wound up getting far more votes-- 131,313-- than Fernandez's 95,088 and nearly as many as Sigman's 133,630. What is wrong with these people?

Many things-- and we'll save that for another day (literally)-- and just say that they need to be removed and replaced, for the sake of Florida and the sake of the whole country. This state is too important to leave to a gaggle of small-minded, corrupt incompetents.

Fergie Reid noted that "Trump visited Florida several times late in the 2020 campaign cycle, holding rallies in, The Villages, Pensacola, Fort Myers, Sanford, Jacksonville, Tampa, Ocala and Miami-Dade. A 'strong' GOP incumbent probably wouldn’t spend so much time in a state like Florida unless his campaign and his state managers considered it imperative. Trump was not in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, or Nevada during these visits to Florida. The rallies helped motivate an overwhelming voter turnout of his GOP supporters, leading to a great election night of victories for Florida Republicans."

He said that "Republicans are now in complete control of Florida’s horrendous COVID outbreak and response strategies, (such as they are). They’re celebrating their awesome governing situation. The GOP is dominant in Florida, and they’re providing their 29 electoral college votes to Donald J. Trump, who will soon be moving his family’s traveling grift show to Palm Beach Co.’s Mar-a-Lago, where he will no doubt take over control of the Florida Republican/Trump Party. 'Winning !!!...?????' Ask Joe Gruters, Chris Sprowls, Ron DeSantis and Wilton Simpson how that’s working out for them several months from now.

Meanwhile, Reid explained, "Grassroots rank and file Democrats in Florida owe a great debt of gratitude to the 83 Democratic candidates who challenged Republican-held seats this year. None of these challengers won their contests; many received zero help from the state party apparatus; however, their 'party building' candidacies, in some of the most Republican districts on the map, will pay dividends for years to come if the new Florida Democratic Party leadership takes proper advantage. Many thanks to these heroic, awesome Democrats."

Message To The Florida Democratic Party: You Can't Win If You Don't Play, Bozos

 

So what happened with the $780,000 in PPP money the FDP grabbed? 

Maybe you saw the comparison between the competent Texas Democratic Party and the incompetent Florida Democratic Party that we ran yesterday. Dr. Fergie Reid, who ran the 90For90 effort to recruit state legislative candidates in every district had some thoughts he expressed to me that I asked him to jot down.

"You can’t win," he reminded me (again), "if you don’t play."

That sounds like a trite, obvious, throw away phrase; but, in politics, it’s very controversial. Between late March 2020, and the Florida state legislative filing deadline on June 12, Janelle Christensen and I made this argument to many Florida Democratic officials and prospective candidates. It’s a logical argument. However, in some political circles, the "smart" play is to NOT run a candidate in any district that is perceived to be "unwinnable."

"It’s a waste of money, we can’t afford it."

"We’ll be able to run more candidates in more districts when we start winning more."

"Running Democrats here in this part of Florida, just makes Republicans mad."

"We can’t find a good enough candidate."

"We like the Republican incumbent; he’s very friendly; we know him personally."

"You just don’t understand the way it works around here." [Yes, the fatal embrace of toxic dysfunction, a ruling principle of the FDP.]

"Why is someone from Los Angeles, so interested in Florida?"

"You are a toxic influence, and an 'outside agitator.'"

"You are a net negative to the candidate you’re trying to help; you should stop helping her, and let us handle her."

"What’s the use in running a candidate if you can’t finance them adequately to win?"

So many excuses NOT to run a Democratic candidate, from people whose job it is to run Democratic candidates! Oy Vey!!

Fergie, Janelle Christensen, Margie Stein and a whole lot of very helpful folks, ended up getting it done; a Democratic candidate running in each and every one of the 141 state legislative races on the Florida ballot in 2020; they recruited 36 of these 141, and facilitated ballot access for at least that many. That’s fully one quarter of the state legislative contests... absolutely amazing !

They asked the Florida state party for help, either in recruiting or financing ballot access; they declined, but said "good luck." They were introduced to their assigned overseer of "down-ballot” races, who had a separate budget specifically for “down-ballot" projects. We asked for help from this group; they declined, but said, "good luck."

"Janelle and Margie," Fergie told me, "made sure each candidate had basic care and nurturing; in many instances, including candidates that we did not recruit, but who needed, asked for, or would otherwise benefit from a little love and attention. Janelle and Margie did what the party would not do... talk to the candidates. 'Are you alright? Do you need anything that we can get for you? Call us if you need us.' That is basic human kindness and appreciation in action. Janelle and Margie did that. Bob Lynch helped more than a few of these candidates with early financial support and advice; Matt Rogers of Politidope provided much appreciated political experience and help to many; scores of grassroots activists gave their time and sweat to make these heroic candidates understand how appreciated their personal sacrifice truly was." Reid continued:

Some of the state party officials understood the importance of this effort and joined in with gusto. Others resisted; and continue to resist. With an opportunity to achieve parity in the Florida state Senate totally within his grasp, the Dem Caucus Chair, Senator Gary Farmer, still hasn’t endorsed Kathy Lewis in FL SD 20, a crucial seat that could give Gary Farmer shared power with his Republican counterpart, Wilton Simpson. The Dem Senate Caucus hasn’t yet called the 9 Democratic Senate candidates who are running in the perceived, "unwinnable" districts. (Do these candidates have "cooties?" Do phones not connect into their Republican districts? Do good form and manners cease to exist at the doorway to the Senate Caucus offices?) Yet, the candidates persist. They carry on. Because, if they don’t play, they can’t win. They probably define winning differently than the old guard party apparatchiks. By running and persisting, they’re winning marginal votes for Joe Biden in their districts; they’re winning hearts and minds of disaffected and previously disrespected voters who have been neglected cycle after cycle; they’re winning the argument within these disregarded communities about the environment, the economy, civil rights, voting rights, and COVID; they’re in the game, sweating, putting in the work.

That’s cool. That’s heroic. That’s high level citizenship.

Are they all going to win? Absolutely not. Some-- and remember, these are all districts the state party decided to not compete in-- are getting tantalizingly close and actually may win. And all of them are turning out votes for the Biden/Harris ticket which is perhaps even more important than Gary Farmer's and his cronies' careers of systemic corruption.





No one ever said all these candidates are going to win. Some of them are running in beet red districts where Democrats haven't run in years. Of course, that's part of the reason they may be so beet red. Rachel Brown is running for the state Senate in Lee County, which the FDP always seems too eager to write-off as "unwinnable." If she wins, the Senate flips from red to blue. But Gary Farmer was dating a Republican running in that district and he literally demanded Rachel drop out. (His GOP girlfriend lost her primary-- in a massive landslide-- and, thank goodness, Rachel didn't drop out. Today she's busy helping turn out Democratic and independent voters for Biden-Harris and she's educating voters about what Democrats stand for. "Always trying is the key," she told me this afternoon. "The second we give up any state, we lose momentum. For those who don't like the party, change it. For those who like the party and think sacrificing battle grounds with no fight... bad strategy. Even if you think you will lose, continuing to talk about medicaid expansion, Rights of Nature, a Green New Deal, will all add to the momentum that our party is lacking and shoot us into the right direction. The only thing we are doing by not having progressives run is creating intellectual deserts."

Before he became a candidate in a swing district state legislative seat in Miami-Dade where the Florida Democratic Party didn't want to run anyone (which would upset GOP powerhouse Daniel Perez), Bob Lynch had a career in Structured Products Trading on Wall Street. That included mortgages, auto, student loans, and also SBA loans. He has an intimate knowledge of loan documentation. "I can tell you with 100% certainty," he said, "that there has never been a single loan that walked into a bank and applied for itself. The Florida Democratic Party created a shell company in order to apply for this loan because political organizations were ineligible for obtaining a PPP loan. The stated purpose of this loan was to save 100 jobs, despite the fact that this entity had no payroll."

In short, Terri Rizzo, the party chair, and Juan Peñalosa, the party executive director, were committing fraud. Lynch:

Why is it that when the Florida Democratic Party was shamed into returning the loan, no jobs were cut? In fact, they hired more people... including third party consultants and contractors with multi million dollar budgets that were never accounted for.

Campaigns like Ricky Junquera’s in HD-118 were funded by this money. Subsequent donors contributions were essentially used to backfill this fraud. That’s a big deal.

When I called for Juan Peñalosa to be fired, I was attacked by the party and accused of being a racist. None of this money went to black or brown women.

Leading Florida Dem “strategists” told me that I should not kick the hornets nest and that because of Juan Peñalosa, Latino strategists such as Rosy Gonzales Spears, Luisana Pérez and many others finally had a place at the table.

All of this was a cash grab. It came down to the people who blew the election for Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson. Now they’re going to blow it again because that’s what these people do for a living.

Nobody cares about actually winning. It’s just about who can get the biggest piece of the wallet share. The Florida Dems spent over $14mm this cycle and $2mm of that went to an independent contractor to focus on only 19 races.

Following the money is extremely straight forward. Why can’t anyone tell me how any of this adds up?

On Wednesday morning, if you wake up and see that Rachel Brown won her Florida state Senate race in "red" Lee County, it means more than just the state Senate flipping blue; it will mean a whole new day dawning in Florida politics. "I think if I don't like something I should fix it," Rachel told me a few minutes ago. "There were many things the Florida Democratic party could have done to help us, requiring no money. In the future, the party should have an orientation in June, telling candidates about the 0.03 cents texting that they told us about two weeks to election day at the point where we were too busy to give them our money and they were too busy to give us the service, about robocalls, about 'data tickets,' about the hundreds of volunteer callers from around the U.S., they had the whole time, who wanted to help flip Florida. They should have one person whose job it is to call through those lists and assign them to campaigns."

She continued, explaining that she didn't want to just sit and complain about how the FDP does its business. "I know how frustrating that attitude must be to party leadership. I'm going to make sure future candidates know about these things and actually help get them started. I'm happy about the positive improvements in the party I've seen locally. For example Lee County Democrats made slate cards for the first time and distributed them to all the Democrats in the county. That's work. We all had many sleepless nights, making ads, printing, cutting and stapling flyers... and days of lit drops and phone calls and texts, and interruptions from media, emails and, of course, questionnaires that never amounted to anything. Anselm [Weber, candidates for the state House in the same area] and I had a volunteer who did 20 hours of phone calling a week. We had a couple join us, calling, making graphics, social media posts, running errands, and lit drops. I found comrades in the Haitian Creole and Spanish-speaking communities who did translations for me. I had a 15 year old volunteer who couldn't vote because of her age but wanted to help and learn from us. Local donors in the vegan community, friends sharing posts and helping make events. We had someone donate huge signs for us to paint, and then put them up for us! There's a man in Bonita Springs, just going house to house registering Democrats to vote and making sure they do... There's so much being done here. I plan on keeping up that positivity and making comrades in Lee County."

Janelle Christensen from the state environmental caucus reiterated tome today that "Running for office, especially when you know the odds are not in your favor, takes incredible dedication to the democratic system. I see the biggest barriers as the antiquated system that the State of Florida has set up for candidates to register to run, the barriers put up to keep people from qualifying and the challenges in finance reporting. Margie and I tried (and at times failed) to help candidates navigate the system designed to keep out the average person. Despite those barriers each candidate has made connections in their communities, educated about climate change, and ensured that entrenched Republicans did not get to set the narrative without challenge. I am happy Margie and I could help candidates in any way we could. I hope we can do it again." She asked me to acknowledge the incredible difference the Blue Wave Coalition has made in some critical areas... they helped register voters and get out the vote in deep red Lee (DEC Chair Gabe Spukes) and Collier (DEC Chair Annisa Karim) Counties and the DEC Chair of Sarasota County, Joanne DeVries has been an amazing advocate and support system also. Some of the best voter turnout is happening in red districts." This is a spreadsheet Janelle updates several times a day.

Will The Anti-Red Tsunami Sweep The Democrats Back Into Control Of State Legislatures-- Yes, But Why Not Florida?

 

Florida Man x 3

Reporting for National Journal, Mary Frances McGowan and Leah Askarinam wrote about the state of the crucial-- but largely ignored-- down-ballot battles over control of state legislatures. In a tsunami-- even though it's primarily a rejection of Trump-- Republicans on all levels are staring into the wide open maw of defeat. In 2010, two years after Obama's big win, due almost entirely to Democratic Party complacency and incompetence on every level, 21 state legislative chambers flipped from blue to red. The Republicans used these wins to further gerrymander state after state into GOP bastions, particularly North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Texas. (Democrats did basically the same thing in Illinois and Maryland.)

"Ten years later," wrote McGowan and Askarinam, "Democrats control 39 legislative chambers out of 98 total (excluding Nebraska, which is unicameral). Republicans are on defense, and Democratic groups are stressing the importance of having a seat at the table during redistricting, not to mention the importance of policy goals like expanding Medicaid and increasing voter access." They warn that it's no easy task. Republicans drew the boundaries of the districts being fought over and the Republican State Leadership Committee has had "a gargantuan financial war chest" to work with. Blue America is trying to boost the chances of progressive candidates across the country and you can contribute to any or all of them by clicking on the ActBlue thermometer on the right. National Journal delineates the 10 most likely chambers to flip a week from Tuesday.

The 67 seat Minnesota Senate, which currently has 35 Republicans and 32 Dems, is probably the surest bet, with 10 Republican-held districts that Governor Tim Walz carried in 2018. The Dems need to flip just 2 of them and are likely to flip at least 5.

In Arizona, both Houses are controlled by the GOP and both look flippable in a state that is trending blue and where Biden is way ahead and where Democrat Mark Kelly looks sure to beat GOP incumbent Martha McSally in a US Senate landslide. Governor Ducey is loathed because of his disastrous pandemic response and state legislators are going to get walloped because of him (and Trump). "More so than in other state legislatures," wrote McGowan and Askarinam, "the results from the two chambers are likely to reflect one another. Arizona is divided into 30 legislative districts, each of which is represented by one state senator and two state House members. Republicans hold a 17-13 majority in the state Senate and a 31-29 majority in the House. Democrats should be able to win both but, like Minnesota , this isn't going to have any impact on the redrawing of district lines. (Arizona has an independent commission doing that job.)

Texas though, is a real battle-royale where the ability of the GOP to gerrymander is very much at stake. This one is CRUCIAL. Please contribute to Lorenzo Sanchez, Eric Holguin and Erin Zwiener here. Right now there are 83 Republicans and 67 Democrats in the state House and the Democrats are heavily targeting the 9 Republican-held seats that Beto O’Rourke carried in his 2018 Senate race, focusing on blue-trending suburban areas near Houston and Dallas, where Trump has become an albatross around the neck of every Republican. If the Democrats flip this chamber, the repercussions nationally will be humongous because GOP plans to gerrymander newly blue congressional districts will have to be scrapped.

The Iowa House has a 53-47 Republican majority. The Democrats need 4 seats to take back control. The legislature doesn’t draw the legislative boundaries but it gets to approve or disapprove them. Democrats control 3 of the 4 congressional districts and the 4th is an open seat where J.D. Scholten is running the most energetic campaign in the state. It looks like Biden is going to win the state, as will Theresa Greenfield, who is leading GOP Senator Joni Ernst by 1.8 points on average.

The Michigan House looks ready to flip back to the Democrats as well. Right now the GOP holds 58 seats to the Democrats' 52 but Gov. Gretchen Whitmer carried Oakland County by 17 points in 2018 and the Democrats are fighting hard to pick up seats there and in other suburban districts.

I would call it a much longer shot, but Democrats feel they can take back both the House and Senate in North Carolina, in great part because a federal court declared the old map unconstitutional, the Democrats had a very successful recruiting season and because both Governor Roy Cooper and Biden are surging right now. The Dems need 5 state Senate seats (and 2 are sure things). "The path to netting the other three," wrote McGowan and Askkarinam, "is scattered across the state, with promising races taking place in Raleigh, Winston-Salem, and the Piedmont region. Democrats point to Senate District 24 in Alamance County, where Democratic veteran J.D. Wooten is running against Republican Amy Galey, as a bellwether. Trump carried that district by 12 points in 2016; if Wooten makes it across the finish line, the chamber is likely to follow. In the state House, Democrats need to flip six seats to take a majority. The landscape is a bit rockier than in the Senate, due to a handful of vulnerable incumbents whom the party needs to protect. However, the party has identified nine Republicans they see as vulnerable."

Pennsylvania should be easier, where the state House has 110 Republicans and 93 Dems but with plenty of suburban targets around Philly and Harrisburg for the Democrats to win in, along with Biden. The Democrats are also likely to flip 3 state Senate seats, but they need a 4th (in Lancaster) and if they win it it will mean the anti-red tsunami is bigger than most people expect.

The toughest of the 10 chambers is the Georgia state House, where Democrats need to pick up 16 seats. They'll win seats but probably more like 7 or 8 than 16.

That leaves a chamber that should be a relatively do-able pick up unmentioned: the Florida state Senate, which the top Senate Democrat, Gary Farmer, seems absolutely determined to lose. The state Senate consists of 23 Republicans and 17 Democrats, so the Dems need 3 for a tie and 4 for a majority. It's almost as if they made a deal with the Republicans to go after 2, which will leave the Senate with a 21-19 GOP majority. Early on, the Democrats tried recruiting failed gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink to run for the open SD-20 seat (parts of Hillsborough, Polk and Pasco counties). She declined but the candidate who nearly won the seat against Tom Lee, the retiring incumbent, in 2018 is in it to win it. The state party has not been welcoming, at least in part because Lewis is black and they try to prevent minority candidates from running in "white" districts. (Yes, it's the worst Democratic state party in the country-- or maybe tied for worst with Ohio's.) Right now, it looks like Lewis is going to beat far right nut-job Daniel Burgess, despite Farmer and the state party. That'll make it a tied chamber; one more seat and they have a win.

Dr. Fergie Reid of 90For90, who helped recruit so many of the Florida candidates told me this morning that "Some Democrats are on offense in Florida; many of these Democrats are playing a beautiful style of 'team electoral politics.' 2020 Florida Democrats are contesting 83 of the 84 GOP held State Legislative Districts; 11 out of 11 in the State Senate and 72 out of 73 in the State House. In the 14 GOP held congressional districts, Democrats are contesting 12. Two Republicans were given walkovers,' on the candidate filing deadline date in April, Mario Diaz-Balart in the prime swing district in the state-- CD 25-- and Neal Dunn in CD 2. Recent polling shows serious Biden strength, and serious Trump weakness in Florida. Republicans are fearful of an impending 'shellacking' and rightfully so. Their great fear is losing control. If they lose either the state House or state Senate, Florida Dems will have a say in the next decade’s electoral maps. Kathy Lewis for SD 20 is the 'rate limiting step' to this Democratic 'power possibility' in Florida. Moreover, the state Senate candidates in todo are the key drivers for a potential Biden overperformance throughout the state: Karen Butler for SD 1, Stacey Peters for SD 5, Heather Hunter for SD 7, Scott Fretwell for SD 17, Kathy Lewis for SD 20, Tony Eldon for SD 21, Katherine Norman for SD 23, Corinna Robinson for SD 25 and Rachel Brown for SD 27; the other Florida Senate candidates are already receiving max support. Help the neglected candidates for maximum effect. Sprint to the finish line. Leave no doubt.

Who's missing from this photo-- Matt Gaetz, Ted Yoho, Joe Gruters, Daniel Perez, Bill Galvano, Dane Eagle, Ashley Moody?

The most unpopular governor in America, Ron DeSantis, is not on the ballot. If voters want to make him pay for his pro-COVID/anti-Florida agenda, the can only take it out on his cronies in the legislature. And they should. DeSantis has killed 16,110 Floridians and the state's case total is 760,389-- 35,404 cases per million Floridians, far worse than any big state in the country. On Kathy Lewis' website, is a message about the pandemic: "In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Florida has seen unprecedented numbers of citizens lose their livelihoods and having to navigate an unemployment system that was seemingly designed to deter users from accessing much needed unemployment assistance. Florida’s response to COVID-19 has been disorganized and lacking in measures focused on saving lives. Kathy believes we need a robust and thorough plan developed with the expert advice of scientists and public health professionals to deal with the current pandemic and to prepare Florida for future pandemics with our citizens’ health and safety as our priority."

Bob Lynch is running for the Florida state House held by a top GOP leader-- who is protected by the Florida Democratic Party-- Daniel Perez. Bob explained that "The reason Florida is not on the list is because Florida Democrats made the calculated decision to not be on the list. This was largely led by Gary Farmer, who has a cushy gig in the minority, and he doesn’t want to rock the boat. Cutting deals with Republicans is his job. Representing Florida is not."

"There is," he continued, "a solid chance we flip Georgia, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, and even freakin’ South Caroline Blue.  You’d think that Florida Dems would take advantage of this historic opportunity to go on a full court press to flip the Florida State Senate and House going into a redistricting year. Instead, Gary Farmer and his cronies decided to spend all of their time and money on Senate District 9 and 39 because that’s where their consultants and vendors can get paid the most and send the kickbacks all up the chain. They have not only completely ignored a historic slate of Senate candidates featuring @Butler4FLSen, @KathyLewisforFL, @Rachel_D_Brown, @NormanFlSenate, @CorinnaRobinson, @HeatherForSD7, @fretwellforfl, and @tonyforflorida, they have openly worked against some of them. Any one of these candidates could change the balance of power in Florida for a decade. Yet Gary and Juan Peñalosa have done everything in their power to abandon and torpedo these candidates. At a certain point, you have to ask yourself why?"

One very prominent candidate who is likely to be serving in the legislature next year and asked me not to divulge his name told me that "The Democrats are bringing a water gun to a bazooka fight with the Florida state legislature. Rather than help Democratic candidates win crucial races across the state, they're leaving them high and dry while actively working against candidates challenging Republican authority. It's genuinely disgusting how little party leadership actually wants to take back the state for the Democrats, especially considering Florida is a swing state with redistricting right around the corner. Republicans will fundraise and promote all of their candidates and shower them with buckets of cash to win. While the Democrats will be like 'OMG thanks for running XD' while doing absolutely nothing to help them win. It's embarrassing. One would think with the GOP's agenda sprinting towards fascism, the Dems might want to help out in critical races. But no, they'd rather be in the minority and collect a check. Holy shit what a petulant opposition party!"

Matt Rogers of Politidope-- and a legislative candidate himself in Virginia-- told me that for the last year, he's "been laser-focused on flipping Florida's 29 Electoral College votes for whomever the Democratic nominee ended up being. During that time, I've heard blood-boiling discussion of inspiring Democratic candidates being recruited OUT of races, party leaders wishing black candidates were 'more attractive' and Party 'leaders' themselves going on Twitter can saying they don't want to 'waste' resources on the brave candidates I've been so fortunate to work alongside with. Nevertheless, we persist. We've got only a few days left to raise money (until October 29th at 11:59 PM) for them. Let's do everything we can to help them and, in effect, help flip Florida's 29 Electoral College votes against the fascist in the White House.

Florida, Florida, Florida!

 

Florida, the ultimate swing state, has played a decisive role in too many presidential elections. Every single vote counts in any statewide election there. In 2018, Republican Ron DeSantis beat Democrat Andrew Gillum 49.6% to 49.2% in the gubernatorial race and Rick Scott beat Bill Nelson (basically a walking corpse) 50.1% to 49.9% in the Senate election. Two years earlier, Trump had beaten Hillary 49.0% to 47.8%.

This cycle there's only one statewide election: U.S. president. Republicans in Florida feel lucky that Ron DeSantis isn't on the ballot. He's more hated by his constituents than any other governor in America. Recently, his job approval rating dropped from an already horrible 40% to an astounding 29%! Perhaps that's because no other big state governor has mishandled the pandemic as badly as DeSantis. Yesterday, Florida reported 2,787 new cases, bring the state's total to 714,591-- 33,271 cases per million Floridians. That's far worse than Texas or California, the only two states with numbers of cases anywhere near Florida's.

And luckily for the GOP, neither Marco Rubio nor Rick Scott is up for reelection either. Floridians rate them both badly. Yesterday, a NY Times/Siena poll of likely Florida voters showed the bottom falling out for Trump among independent voters, a cohort where Biden leads statewide 45-33%. And the debate accelerated his decline. The Times wrote that the revulsion against Trump’s performance "extended well into his reliable base. One-third of the president’s supporters said they disapproved of his performance, including 11 percent who did so strongly. A modest but potentially significant 8 percent of people who backed him in the survey said the debate made them less likely" to vote for him... In Miami-Dade County Biden leads, 61-30 and Biden even led among Cuban-American voters who were registered as Republicans by nearly a two-to-one margin! And 60% of Floridians say they find Trump neither honest nor trustworthy. Only 36% of likely voters say he is. And 69% of independents say he's dishonest and untrustworthy.

That's the state of the race in Florida, the most likely state to try to steal the election for Trump regardless of what the voters want... and the state opening up everything with no restrictions despite a horrific and raging pandemic. In fact, Fauci just singled out Florida (DeSantis) for making huge pandemic mistakes.

One of the more dangerous aspects of the coronavirus is that a downtrend in new infections can give off the impression that life can finally revert back to normal. And so, in a scenario that we’ve seen play out numerous times over the past few months, cities that are quick to open things back up after a decline in new coronavirus cases typically see a huge surge in new infections weeks down the line.

The most recent example of this dynamic playing out can be seen in Florida. While Florida was previously a huge hotspot for coronavirus cases, the state in recent weeks saw its coronavirus numbers go way down after people started taking social distancing and mask-wearing more seriously. As a result, some schools in Miami are planning to open back up two weeks earlier than initially planned. What’s more, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis recently announced a plan to lift COVID-19 restrictions on bars and restaurants. And while bars and restaurants in most states are currently operating at 25-50% capacity, bars and restaurants in Florida will be allowed to operate at 100% capacity.

Needless to say, Dr. Anthony Fauci is beyond frustrated with the direction Florida is headed.

During an appearance on Good Morning America this week, Fauci explained:

That is very concerning to me. We have always said this is something we really need to be careful about. Because when you’re dealing with community spread, and you have the kind of congregate setting where people get together, particularly without masks, you’re really asking for trouble.

Right now we're suddenly down to the final days of this election cycle. In Florida, the state candidate fundraising deadline is 5 days prior to election day, giving state candidates there about 3 weeks to raise the money they need to run successful campaigns. I asked Fergie Reid, the principal at 90 for 90, one of the organizations that went against Florida Democratic Party wishes and recruited Democratic candidates in the districts the Democrats had decided to cede to the GOP uncontested, how the campaign is looking a month out.

He reminded me that the Florida Democratic Environmental Caucus worked with 90 for 90 to recruit 36 candidates for legislative districts the Florida Democrats were, for one reason or another (including grotesque corruption) leaving unchallenged in the state Legislature. They successfully filled each and every ballot line without a Democratic contestant. "For the first time in anyone’s living memory," he told me, "Florida Democrats are contesting Republican incumbents throughout the state. The Biden/Harris campaign has not yet fully understood the awesome value of this important fact; but, they may be catching onto that value now. These 36 candidates are running in the most Republican districts and areas of the state: the western panhandle, 'the Villages', the 'First Coast', the Everglades, the Southwestern coastline-- from Sarasota to Naples, etc. These campaigns will help Joe Biden flip Florida's 29 electoral college votes."

Reid seems confident that if the Biden/Harris campaign and their strategists finally understand this fact-- and how these down-ballot candidates, whether they win or lose-- can turn out voters, Biden will take the state of Florida. And some of these candidates, who once looked like long shots, now look like winners, particularly Kathy Lewis, whose victory will, in all likelihood, flip the state Senate.

"Bloomberg," continued Reid, "has committed to a very substantial expenditure in Florida on Biden’s behalf. A pittance of this sum could-- and should-- be allocated to utilize the 36 candidates and their campaigns to benefit Joe Biden. Blanket endorsements, social media, robo-calls, text messaging, etc., are 'low cost-high yield' measures that should be financed immediately by the Biden support structure. Not to do so is political malpractice. Many of these 36 candidates are still waiting to hear from Florida’s Biden campaign ground operatives."

Blue America has been working with the Environmental Caucus and 90 For 90 to identify progressive candidates among the recruits and there are candidates running for Congress, the state House and the state Senate. The 2020 thermometer on the right is strictly for Florida candidates who could make a pivotal difference in re-jiggling the state power structure. The state Senate is on the verge of flipping-- and Kathy Lewis, Rachel Brown and Katherine Norman could do exactly that, giving the Democrats a seat at the table when it's time next year to redraw the district maps.

In terms of the presidential race, there has been talk that the decision could be made in the House. Each state gets one vote based on a canvas among the members of the state delegation. Right now Florida has 14 Republicans and 13 Democrats. A victory by either Adam Christensen or Cindy Banyai could literally make the difference between 4 more years of Trump or a Biden/Harris administration. In fact, let me leave you with the brand new first Adam Christensen ad... while you consider contributing to this slate of candidates.

Florida Democratic Party-- Exposed!

State Senate candidate-- and passionate environmental leader-- Katherine Norman will change Tallahassee in ways that will be a transformational joy for the entire state of Florida

 

Congratulations are due Joan Walsh for her powerful and cogent exposé of the crooked, worthless Florida Democratic Party in the new issue of The Nation: Do Florida Democrats Want to Win the State Senate This Year? "Party leaders’ reluctance to support promising challengers, and a penchant for punishing those who complain about that lack of support," she wrote, "provokes the question." Too bad she missed the one about Gary Farmer trying to bully Rachel Brown, a Democrat out of an open seat race because he was screwing the Republican (who lost her primary anyway). Now Farmer refuses to back Brown in the race.

"Florida Democrats," wrote Walsh, "are locked out of state-level power by a GOP trifecta that runs the governor’s office, the House, and the Senate. But they only need to pick up three Senate seats to achieve at least a tie in that chamber, and thus reach a power-sharing arrangement with the GOP, which is especially important as the state takes up redistricting next year. Party leaders and local observers seem to agree that two Democratic candidates have a decent chance to flip GOP-held open seats, in the Miami-Dade and Orlando areas. But a 21-19 balance gets the party very little in terms of legislative clout, particularly when it comes to redistricting. That’s why observers and activists are increasingly perplexed that Florida Democratic leaders and donors haven’t coalesced around at least one or two more Democrats whom concentrated support might push across the finish line, especially if November turns into a blue wave election. Which it could. The once-popular Governor Ron De Santis now has the second-worst Covid-approval rating of the nation’s governors, right behind Iowa Republican Kim Reynolds. Meanwhile, Joe Biden is running ahead of Donald Trump in a state Hillary Clinton lost by only one point, largely on his strength with seniors. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg just announced plans to pump $100 million into Florida to elect Democrats."

As you may be aware by now, Blue America is supporting some of the most promising challengers in Florida, including three amazing women running for the state Senate, the aforementioned Rachel Brown, the amazing Katherine Norman, who is taking on Joe Gruters, the chairman of the Florida Republican Party and a top Trump lackey, and the candidate Walsh concentrated on in her piece, Kathy Lewis. Clicking on the ActBlue thermometer on the right will show you all of our Florida candidates and allow you to contribute to all or any of their campaigns. Building the Florida progressive bench is incredibly important.

Most of the confusion about why the state Democratic Senate leadership isn’t championing more challengers converges on Kathy Lewis, a writer and disability-rights activist who ran in a red district in 2018 and came closer to winning than anyone expected, taking 46.5 percent of the vote in this traditionally Republican, rural, urban, and suburban district, even though she was outspent more than 10-1 by a longtime GOP incumbent. Now he’s stepping down, prompting a special election for an open seat in this Tampa–St. Petersburg area district anchored by Hillsborough County. With more money and experience behind her, Lewis and her supporters believe she has a solid chance of victory this time, but party leaders don’t seem to see it that way.

And pointing out her lack of party support is, confoundingly, making it harder for her to raise money, Lewis told me. At least two major donors told the Senate District 20 candidate directly that party leaders warned them away from her campaign, because she has talked to local and national news outlets, including The Nation, about her struggles to get state Democrats to take her campaign seriously. More than one Florida Democrat has suggested she stop talking to the press about her travails, if she wants to gain support.

“Nobody’s gonna tell me what to say,” Lewis told me. “I can’t be bought.”

Lewis is not the only Florida Democratic candidate to feel abandoned by party leaders. After the State Democratic Environmental Caucus and the voter-access group 90 for 90 collaborated on recruiting 36 challengers for state House and Senate races-- one for all but one seat-- Senate Democratic minority leader Gary Farmer, who drives official caucus spending on 2020 races, belittled their efforts.

“I’m guided by science & reality,” Farmer tweeted. “Contesting every race is great if you have $ to do so. We simply don’t & won’t until we achieve majority. When you spend on races that are long shots you take $ from races that can be won.” Beth Matuga, a consultant for Senate Victory, a group representing Florida Senate Democrats, also replied defensively on Twitter, arguing that “the caucus has grown in 10yrs from 12 to 17, with very real opportunity to get to 19 this cycle…I’m tired of people pretending like contesting downballot seats is a new idea when they’ve been ignoring it for 10yrs.” It’s true that the caucus has clawed back seats, but if it only gets to 19 this cycle, critics note, it cedes redistricting entirely to the GOP, which will then draw new maps unlikely to give the Democrats a chance to win the Senate anytime soon. (I got pushback on that notion from one Florida source, who says that with a slim two-vote majority, Republicans won’t be able to sacrifice any incumbents to change district lines, which they did in 2011, after the GOP landslide of 2010, because they had a larger edge.)

Down With Tyranny blogger Howie Klein, long a pull-no-punches advocate for the party’s progressive insurgency, retorted in a post, “If There Was No Florida Democratic Party, It Would Be Easier For Democrats To Win.” Klein specifically cited Lewis’s lack of support, among others, as an example.

There is clearly major friction, in Florida and elsewhere, between a new wave of outside groups plus longtime activists who believe Democrats should be contesting many more, if not every, state legislative seat, and party leadership, which tends to fight to protect incumbents. “This is a real tension,” a leader of an outside group working in Florida told me. “Running in every district, if it doesn’t come with the necessary support, isn’t strategic.” On the other hand, party leaders tend to be over-concerned with protecting incumbents, along with their own leadership positions, and thus often define “winnable” races too narrowly, this person said, adding, “Kathy Lewis is exactly the kind of candidate we should support.”

I watched this play out in Virginia in 2017, where by most accounts Democratic House Caucus leaders, and even some progressive activists, thought they could pick up roughly eight GOP seats in the House of Delegates, though they were down by 16. Yet many more Virginia challengers argued, loudly, that they deserved support. Ultimately, Democrats won 15 seats, almost taking over leadership, thanks to brave insurgents, the intervention of new outside groups, and the emerging blue wave that in 2019 gave Virginia a Democratic trifecta, with control of the State House, Senate, and governor’s office.

Florida Democrats indeed look to be outmatched in terms of fundraising this year. The Florida Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (FDLCC), the arm that supports Senate candidates, had raised just under $2 million by the end of August, compared to $7.1 million hauled in by the Florida Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, according to the Tampa Bay Times. In 2018, the Democrats were outspent $46 million to $18 million.

So the party is investing in flipping two Senate seats, also, like Lewis’s, left open by the departure of GOP incumbents. Leaders backed Representative Javier Fernández to pursue an open seat in Miami-Dade and Monroe counties, and put money behind him. In the Orlando area, officials recruited and invested heavily in labor attorney Patricia Sigman. In that Orlando race, the two parties have already spent more than $1 million, combined. Senate Democrats are also defending incumbent Jose Javier Rodríguez of northeastern Miami-Dade, who won narrowly in 2016 and faces a well-funded GOP challenger, as well as an open seat in greater Tallahassee, recruiting Representative Loranne Ausley.

In Lewis’s District 20, party leaders tried to recruit Alex Sink, the state’s former chief financial officer and 2014 candidate for governor. Sink declined, and has endorsed Lewis. Lewis is beginning to rack up other meaningful endorsements, including four Senate incumbents-- but Florida’s Senate has a 17-seat Democratic delegation, which means that with only seven weeks before the election, 13 of them are still AWOL. And she has received nothing from the official Senate Victory funding arm, the FDLCC.

Meanwhile, Lewis’s GOP opponent, former state representative Danny Burgess, has raised more than $270,000 so far to Lewis’s $44,000, and just went on television with his first ad.

Weirdly, even some of Lewis’s supporters are reluctant to talk about her struggle for funding. Several Lewis backers ignored my outreach. One incumbent senator referred me to Senate minority leader Gary Farmer, instead of returning my call. Farmer, who controls Democratic Senate spending and has not endorsed Lewis, did not return two messages. A representative from Senate Victory stressed that decisions about individual races are based on data, adding, “While Kathy Lewis is a great candidate, the numbers show better opportunities for pickups in other areas of the state.”

Most disturbing, Lewis, who is African American, says she’s been criticized for making race an issue, when she herself has, as far as I know or can determine via Google searches, done no such thing. The issue of race did move front and center in July, when a local white Democratic leader said on a Zoom call with Black Democrats that Lewis’s race was “not high on our list because of where the polling was. What we do is, we prioritize based on our overall goals. White, Black, brown—it doesn’t matter who that candidate is, it’s where they fall on our election priority list.” A local Black Democratic activist protested: “I just think any Black woman in the race right now stands a chance and should be given a little more money than you might think they need. I just feel that you should give them more money!”

It must be said: After this conversation drew national attention, Lewis’s endorsements by local Democratic leaders began to surge. Money, not so much.

Lewis supporter Dr, Fergie Reid Jr., of the group 90 for 90, has no qualms about discussing the role of race in the lack of support for Lewis. During his many phone calls advocating for recruited candidates, he intermittently heard the phrase “minority-access district,’’ which he took to mean majority-black (which Lewis’s district is not, though the number of nonwhite voters is continually climbing). And he said so, explaining that he understood that to be a Jim Crow euphemism for a “Black District”-- or, alternatively, an “acceptable district for a Black person to pursue.” He received no pushback, he says, “only embarrassing affirmation.”

Whatever the role of race, many smart Democrats are increasingly questioning the Senate caucus’s neglect of Lewis’s campaign.

One Democratic operative who has worked in Florida said, “If you don’t compete, you can’t win. Senate District 20 should be a top target. It’s in the heart of the I-4 corridor that has seen strengthening support for Democrats this year, it saw strong Dem performance in 2018, and it could be the key to winning the Senate, when few competitive seats are up.”

This morning Rachel Brown reminded me that "Kathy Lewis won over 87,000 votes last time, more than 46%, without any help from the state party... That's what showed me that grassroots candidates like myself can give the Republicans a run for their money without state party help... We have to fight because our entire nation depends on the way Florida votes this year. Yes, I have a personal fear of Ray Rodriguez winning and destroying Florida but the heart of the matter is what the public knows. If the public knows that an awful man is in control, and they don't like him and they revolt, great. If The public thinks everything is fine when in reality it is not, well that's even more dangerous. Also, when you don't support a candidate financially you are sending them into battle with nothing. Yes I can get creative, but I'm going to need at least 20,000 to reach all the voters I need to reach and that's still incredibly low for a senate race." I'll just leave off here with another reminder that readers can support Rachel Brown, Kathy Lewis and Katherine Norman in their state Senate races by clicking on the thermometer above or right here. Every voter they contact and persuade in their own races, is another voter-- whether they win or lose this year-- against Trump in November. If Rachel, Kathy and Katherine win their races, the GOP no longer controls the state of Florida. That simple.

When Will It Be An Unambiguous Rout?

How would the media sell ads if the narrative of the 2020 election was just "anti-Republican tsunami ahead" every day? And how would the two parties motivate their bases to turn out if that was the story?


New York Magazine's Alex Carp looked to Frank Rich for an explanation of how to navigate a news cycle on steroids. He noted, as many of us have, that, "Just as the revelations in Jeffrey Goldberg’s reporting on Donald Trump’s insults to veterans have begun to fade from the headlines, details from Bob Woodward’s latest book on the president, including his intentional downplaying the risks of coronavirus and lies about how it is transmitted, have begun to appear. Will either of these reports have long-term impact?"

And what about Michael Cohen’s tell-all memoir, which was on constant rotation on MSNBC during the brief interim between Goldberg and Woodward? And whatever happened to The Times reporter Michael Schmidt’s book of a week earlier, with its revelation that Mike Pence was put on standby alert during that murky unscheduled Trump stopover at Walter Reed? The cavalcade passes by so quickly it’s hard to gauge what long-term impact any revelations have. We hardly got to know the Fontainebleau hotel pool boy who brought down the randy architect of Trump’s Evangelical base, Jerry Falwell Jr., before we moved on.

If the voluminous press coverage of the widely distributed advance copies are to be believed, Woodward’s Rage is adding details and Trump’s own blithe recorded confirmation to a horrific story that we already knew: The president deliberately falsified and downplayed the epic severity of the pandemic. As Jennifer Szalai writes in her Didion-worthy dissection of Rage in The Times, the book’s portrait of Trump would be “immediately recognizable to anyone paying even the minimal amount of attention.” In a blow-by-blow account in April, for instance, The Times reported that “throughout January, as Mr. Trump repeatedly played down the seriousness of the virus,” both “top White House advisers” and experts in Cabinet departments and intelligence agencies were telling him the lethal facts and sounding constant alarms.

That’s why by this late date Trump’s indifference to matters of life and death has long since been baked into most voters’ verdicts on this president, including his own voters. Even as the Woodward revelations started to pour out, Trump was brazenly showcasing his immutable callousness and narcissism in public view, violating local mandates (as well as White House guidelines) on mask wearing and social distancing at a rally in North Carolina and conspicuously ignoring the devastation, pain, and suffering as fire tore through America’s most highly populated state.





National and battleground-state polling on the presidential election has remained largely stable since before either party’s conventions. One wants to believe that Woodward and Goldberg will move the needle, transforming a Biden lead that still leaves Democrats anxious into an unambiguous rout. In the immediate aftermath of Goldberg’s Atlantic piece, the White House’s panicky, all-hands-on-deck pushback suggested that the Trump campaign was worried. Even Melania Trump’s Twitter account was immediately enlisted in an overnight effort to denounce the article as fake news. But again, you have to wonder if The Atlantic’s additional anecdotes can move voters who have long since absorbed Trump’s contempt for generals, for John McCain’s wartime heroism, and for the Gold Star parents of Humayun Khan, an Army captain killed by a car bomb in Iraq.

What gives one a bit of hope about the Woodward book’s ability to sway some of the few still-persuadable voters is the recordings. Trump just couldn’t stop himself from performing for the most bold-faced name among reporters. While we can’t rule out that he may yet claim, as he did about the Access Hollywood video, that the recordings are a hoax, the sheer volume of his verbal diarrhea makes it unlikely that anyone will fall for it except his QAnon faithful. To get voters to listen to them all, Sarah Cooper may have to bring out a box set.

Does Fox News show the results of their polling on the channels? Fox's polls are legitimate-- nothing like the Republican Party manipulated polling that Rasmussen and Trafalgar do. The most recent Fox polls show Trump losing in key battleground states: down 8 in Wisconsin, down 9 in Arizona, down 4 in North Carolina-- and dragging Republican incumbents down with him, with Arizona Senator Martha McSally (R) losing to Mark Kelly by 17 points and North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis (R) losing to Cal Cunningham by 6 points. Fox's most recent national poll had Trump losing by 5-- 51-46%.

And what about the ultimate swing state, Florida? The RealClearPolitics polling average has Trump losing by 1.2%, although that average includes concotted polling from Trafalgar. Florida is always going to be close. Trump can't win the presidency without its 29 electoral votes; Biden can. But the Biden campaign isn't taking any chances. It was big news yesterday that Mike Bloomberg is about to pour $100 million into Florida. Trump freaked out immediately:

Michael Scherer reported that this "massive late-stage infusion of cash" could reshape the presidential contest in a costly toss-up state central to Señor Trumpanzee's reelection hopes. $100 million goes a long way-- even in Florida, a state where TV ads still seem to work. I wonder how that kind of spending is going to effect down-ballot races. I asked some of the Blue America-endorsed candidates running for Congress and for the state legislature.

Kathy Lewis' district will determine whether the Florida state Senate is controlled by the Democrats or the GOP. Last time she ran-- against an incumbent who has retired (and with ZERO help from the Florida Democratic Party-- she scored 46.5% and nearly ousted a right-wing nut. This time she's up against a Trumpist and looks like she can flip the seat. She told us this morning that "An infusion of cash in the Florida Senate District 20 Democratic campaign will be the boost we need to flip this critical Florida seat. The SD-20 seat may well determine if Democrats get a say in Florida redistricting for the next decade. I am running a truly grassroots campaign, and this money could be the lift that pushes Democrats to a position of power in Florida."

Joshua Hicks, the progressive state House candidate running for a Nassau-Duval county seat told me he thinks "most candidates in Florida will welcome Bloomberg spending $100 million on GOTV efforts. It's sorely needed in an expensive state, and could be the difference between a Trump re-election or a Biden presidency. That said, it would be nice if Bloomberg or any major donor would invest in actual down-ballot candidates as well. The 140 Democratic candidates running throughout Florida are doing real work on the ground, contacting and turning out real voters-- even in tough districts-- but sadly, many are being ignored. Hopefully Bloomberg's investment will trickle down into the districts where it is needed and where moving even a couple thousand votes can make a big, big difference for the statewide results. We are all in this together and I am glad Bloomberg is finally arriving at the party."

Cindy Banyai won her primary in August and is contesting an open congressional seat in southwest Florida. (In the primary she got 28,749 votes and the Republican victor, Byron Donalds, won 23,480 votes. "We are going to need to get out the Democratic vote," she told me last night, "as well as win the hearts and minds of independent voters and non-Trump Republicans. Investments made across Florida will help us defeat Trump and flip down ballot districts from red to blue, ensuring the voice to the people is truly heard. Grassroots candidates like me can really make our dollars stretch. Television ads make a huge difference, but cost a lot up front. An influx of funds for television could really help us flip this district and defeat the latest aspiring Trump sycophant."

Bob Lynch, way down in Miami-Dade and also running for a state House seat held by a Republicans said that "The thing that gives me the most hope is that almost all of Bloomberg’s decisions are data driven. And I don’t mean Robby Mook and the guys who read Moneyball in college and thought political campaigns were as easy as playing fantasy baseball data driven. Bloomberg is the real deal. Mike built his empire on data. The Bloomberg service we use on Wall Street is incredible in its breadth, depth, and sophistication. There is no doubt that he crunched all the numbers and decided that Florida was a good investment. The fact that he is doing this so late in the cycle is great news as it will leave the GOP scrambling to assemble a counter strike. Spanish language television ads will make a huge difference and close the gap between Democratic outreach and the GOP’s advantage in tv ads. I’ve been watching almost all of the NBA Playoff games on TNT and it still amazes me to see how many personal injury lawyers advertise, in laughably bad Spanish, during the commercials. But they try. I’ve yet to see a Biden ad in Spanish, despite spending last month religiously watching European soccer on Telemundo. If the Bloomberg effort surgically targets Latino areas on channels and programming they watch, it will pay dividends. If they follow the same tired playbook that sunk Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum, it will be a colossal waste of money."

Lynch continued that he's "hoping it will help my district, HD-116, which is 90% Hispanic, at the top of the ticket but it is still unclear how that will affect down ballot races. Ideally, Bloomberg would have plugged into the unprecedented slate of down ballot candidates 90 for 90 and The Florida Democratic Environmental caucus recruited to run in almost every race, but that doesn’t seem to be the plan. We know our communities far better than out of state consultants who were deployed to Florida. $100 million is a lot of money and Bloomberg’s operation has always been far more efficient than the DNC or state party. I remain both hopeful and skeptical. The ground work still needs to be done on the local level. Mailers, text, phone banking, targeted digital (Facebook and YouTube). Myself and my fellow candidates will continue this effort and do our best to draft in Bloomberg’s wake."





Fergie Reid and Janelle head, respectively, 90 For 90 and the Florida Environmental Caucus-- and they were responsible for recruiting dozens of Florida candidates in seats the Florida Democratic Party is always happy to cede to the GOP without a fight. Reid told me that it's great news that Bloomberg is spending $100 million in Florida to help assure a Biden/Harris Democratic victory there. "Much of this money," he said, "will be spent on T.V. ads and statewide GOTV efforts, possibly targeted at specific regional voter populations. An historic slate of 140 Florida Democratic 2020 state legislative candidates will appear on the ballot. 84 of these are challenging currently GOP held seats. Around $2 million of this planned $100 million dollar expenditure should be spread throughout these 84 districts. Dems need to flip 3 state Senate seats and 13 state House seats to 'share power.' Flips of 4 and 14 respectively would give Dems an outright majority in both chambers. The Florida Senate and House Dems are currently playing to flip 2 & 19 respectively; which means 63 challenger contests are being almost completely ignored by the party bodies with oversight of these races. 63 state legislative contests equates to roughly HALF of the STATE of FLORIDA! Mike Bloomberg would do well to invest in this half of the state, using these candidates contests as the vehicles."

Janelle Christensen couldn't agree more. She said that "If Bloomberg deigned to give $140,000, that would be $1000 per Democratic candidate running in the state legislature. Each one of those candidates could use that money to reach at minimum 2,000 NPA or new voters. 

Bloomberg made the decision to focus his final election spending on Florida last week, after news reports that Trump had considered spending as much as $100 million of his own money in the final weeks of the campaign, Bloomberg’s advisers said. Presented with several options on how to make good on an earlier promise to help elect Biden, Bloomberg decided that a narrow focus on Florida was the best use of his money.

The president’s campaign has long treated the state, which Trump now calls home, as a top priority, and his advisers remain confident in his chances given strong turnout in 2016 and 2018 that gave Republicans narrow winning margins in statewide contests.

“Voting starts on Sept. 24 in Florida so the need to inject real capital in that state quickly is an urgent need,” Bloomberg adviser Kevin Sheekey said. “Mike believes that by investing in Florida it will allow campaign resources and other Democratic resources to be used in other states, in particular the state of Pennsylvania.”

The last Republican to win the White House without Florida was Calvin Coolidge in 1924, and a loss of the state’s 29 electoral votes would radically shrink Trump’s paths to reelection. With Florida in his column, Biden would be able to take the presidency by holding every state that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and winning any one of the following states: Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, all of which Biden leads in current public polling averages.

In recent weeks, polls in Florida have narrowed, with the Cook Political Report recently shifting the state from “lean Democrat” to “toss up.” A Washington Post average of public polls since August finds Biden up by one percentage point in the state, well within the margin of error. While he has been doing better than past Democratic candidates with Whites and seniors, Biden has struggled among the state’s Latino population, which Republicans have focused enormous resources on courting over several election cycles.

“If you have the ability to make sure that you are able to speak directly to all of these different communities and where they live then you are going a long way to securing the states for Biden in this election,” Rep. Ted Deutch (D-FL) said. “I’m glad that Mike Bloomberg recognized this and is prepared to make an investment to make sure that every one of those communities will be aware of the importance of this election.”

The spending will focus mostly on television and digital ads, in both English and Spanish.

Bloomberg’s aim is to prompt enough early voting that a pro-Biden result would be evident soon after the polls close. Florida, unlike other swing states, reports almost all early ballots shortly after voting ends.

Democrats and Republicans have worried that early results will dictate public perceptions of who will ultimately win the election. In many states, the first reported votes are more Republican, but the numbers turn more Democratic over time as more mail-in and early votes are added to the tally.

“It would give lie to what we expect to be Trump’s election night messaging that Democrats are stealing the election, because unlike other battleground states, Florida counts its absentee ballots on or by Election Day,” Bloomberg adviser Howard Wolfson said. “We think Florida is incredibly close but winnable.”

A recent report by Hawkfish, a voter data firm funded by Bloomberg, predicted that even in a scenario where Biden wins 54 percent of the final vote, partisan differences in mail voting preference could lead to an initial count that shows Trump winning with 55 percent of ballots tabulated nationally on Nov. 3. In public polling, Republican voters have reported far less interest in voting by mail or voting early than Democrats.

A prominent Democratic consultant in Florida, not aware of the Bloomberg decision, said Saturday that Democratic outside groups have mostly focused on Midwestern states because of the prohibitive cost of advertising in Florida. This person, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss strategy, estimated that it would take $15 million to $20 million to significantly move Biden’s numbers among Latinos, and $60 million to $70 million to get on television across the state over the next 51 days and have a real impact.

Between March 24 and Sept. 11, the Biden campaign and Democratic groups outspent Trump and Republican groups in the state on television by a margin of $42 million to $32 million, according to data from a Democratic tracking firm. But future reservations suggest that gap is set to narrow, in part because of increased investment by wealthy Trump backers operating independently of his campaign.

Preserve America, a new super PAC backed by Las Vegas casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, announced $30 million in spending in seven states this month, including Florida, with more spending expected to be announced soon.

Bloomberg’s advisers described the spending plan as “nine figures” and declined to say how much higher than $100 million Bloomberg might be willing to go, if at all. They said Bloomberg is hopeful that his commitment will push other wealthy Democratic donors to further open their pocketbooks for other states in the final months of the campaign. Bloomberg’s money will be spent through Independence USA, his own super PAC, and other Democratic groups.

Between November and March, Bloomberg spent more $1 billion on his own failed bid for the Democratic nomination, including about $275 million on ads that criticized Trump. When he endorsed Joe Biden, he announced that he would “work to make him the next President of the United States.” Bloomberg subsequently received a prime speaking slot on the final night of the Democratic convention this year.

But just what Bloomberg, who is estimated to be worth more than $50 billion, planned to do with his money has remained a significant source of suspense among Democratic strategists. After flooding local and state Democratic Party accounts with money during his campaign, Bloomberg transferred about $20 million in cash and prepaid office leases to the Democratic National Committee, taking advantage of a provision of campaign finance law that allows candidates to donate leftover money. He also spread his money to benefit state and local Democratic candidates.

A group he helps to fund, Everytown for Gun Safety, has pledged to spend $60 million on elections this cycle, and he has committed another $60 million to help preserve or strengthen the Democratic House majority. Swing Left, a group focused on winning state legislative seats, and Fair Fight, a voter protection effort led by former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, have also received millions. Bloomberg has not yet announced any spending to help elect a Democratic Senate, after allotting $20 million to the effort in 2018.