Yesterday's 2 Most Important Primary Runoffs-- Mike Siegel Wins Big In Texas And A Trump Slop Bucket Beats Jeff Sessions In Alabama

Austin Civil Rights attorney Mike Siegel has been working hard to replace the richest Republican in Congress, reactionary Trumpist Michael McCaul, for nearly 4 years. He held McCaul down to a 51.1% win in 2018, McCaul's closest call ever. In a tough primary on March 3rd Siegel led the two "moderates" with Big Money backing who opposed his progressive platform:

• Mike Siegel- 35,450 (44.0%)
• Pritesh Gandhi- 26,683 (33.1%)
• Shannon Hutcheson- 18,506 (22.9%)

After voting closed in yesterday's primary runoff, Siegel, elated after the record turnout told me that "When I take office in January 2021, I'll be bringing the voices of an amazing diverse community to the halls of Congress. I'll be fighting for a progressive agenda that meets the scale of the crises we are facing: universal healthcare to address the COVID-19 pandemic; a national jobs program to address rampant unemployment; dismantling the architecture of white supremacy in our government institutions, to re-envision law enforcement, public safety and community priorities. Most of all, for the first time in 16 years, the people of TX-10 will have an open, accessible, accountable representative, someone who understands the pain of rural hospital closures and high speed Internet deserts; someone who will hold polluters accountable; who will speak out against the legacy of Jim Crow and use their congressional office to advance social change. Our path after tonight is to keep building this massive, unprecedented coalition that unites youth and seniors, environmentalists and labor, Yellow Dog Democrats and Bernie enthusiasts, and unite us all into an unstoppable force come November. We've already broken down so many barriers: turning a "safe" Republican seat into a national battleground; raising $1 million from an army of grassroots supporters; winning the Democratic nomination while talking about a Green New Deal and Medicare for All in a swing district in the heart of Texas. Now let's finish the job!"

Returns from last night show Siegel leading decisively against Gandhi, who is basically a go-slow, no-can-do Democrat who would have made no substantive difference in Congress whatsoever. Mike beat him 54.2% to 45.8%, with a very heavy turnout. It's worth noting that Gandhi spent $1,130,588 compared to Mike's 665,611 and directed a sleazy scam SuperPAC, 314 Action, to spend another $661,220 smearing Mike. But the grassroots won-- and big! Today is the day to redouble our efforts to flip TX-10 by contributing to Mike's campaign and help give him the resources he needs to retire McCaul to his family estate. That's what this "Turning Texas Blue" thermometer is for. Let's take this opportunity to go all the way-- from Austin to the Harris County suburbs northwest of Houston.

I admit, I don't pay a lot of attention to Republican primaries, let alone Republican primary runoffs. If there were actual moderates running against extremists, I might... by the modern day Republican Party is about each candidate vying to show he or she is more extreme and more devoted to Señor Trumpanzee. Yesterday's Alabama primary was a bit of an outlier.

Senator Doug Jones, an accidental Democratic senator who filled Jeff Sessions seat when Sessions was appointed Attorney General by Trump, is viewed as the only vulnerable Democrat up for reelection this cycle. Defeating him is essential to the GOP if they are to have any hope whatsoever of holding onto their majority. The most recent polling shows that either candidate would beat Jones but that Sessions would have an easier time of it because a significant number of Sessions voters-- as much as 10%-- will not vote for Tuberville in the general.

On March 3, in a 7-way primary that included establishment favorite Rep. Bradley Byrne and walking freak-show Judge Roy Moore, sessions and Tuberville, a football coach and scandal-ridden hedge fund crook and scam artist led the pack and were scheduled for a runoff at the end of tehmonth-- a runoff that's postponed by COVID until yesterday. The March 3rd results:

• Tommy Tuberville- 237,821 (33.4%)
• Jeff Sessions- 224,985 (31.6%)
• Bradley Byrnes- 177,217 (24.9%)
• Roy Moore- 51,008 (7.2%)
• Ruth Nelson- 7,131 (1.0%)
• Arnold Mooney- 7,088 (1.0%)
• Stanley Adair- 6,559 (0.9%)

Trump has been all in on Tuberville, including this last-minute robocall to likely Republican primary voters. Trump, in fact, has been downright apoplectic about Sessions, the first senator to endorse him for president when Trump was still just a fringe vanity candidate paying out-of-work actors to sit in the audience of his appearances and cheer his racist remarks. Here's an ad Tuberville ran after the primary with Trump's permission:





Tuberville has refused to talk to the media and refused to debate Sessions, who painted him as a weal coward. But yesterday, in the midst of a horrific statewide coronavirus explosion, Alabama Republicans, as expected, gave Trump what he wanted:

• Tommy Tuberville- 333,890 (60.7%)
• Jeff Sessions- 215,831 (39.3%)

Turnout was abysmal. Alabamans just couldn't pick between these two awful candidates so-- despite Trump's carryings on against Sessions and despite his case for a clownish crook like Tuberville-- few people voted. One Republican Party strategist: "The story here is that Trump cannot turn out votes in the reddest state in the country. That should worry him." Good sign for Jones? Very possible.

Meanwhile, on Monday, Alabama reported 1,958 and yesterday another 1,673 new cases, bringing the state's total cases to 57,218-- a truly horrific 11,670 cases per million Alabamans. Gov. Kay Ivey (R) has screwed up the state's pandemic response in a major way, but GOP voters... have refused to connect the dots yet and look reality in the eyes... except maybe the ones who didn't come out to vote or bother mailing in absentee ballots.

A Little Look At Trump's America One Year Before The Fateful Choice

Barr, Pompeo, Trumpanzee and Pence

UPDATE: With 100% of parishes reporting, Governor John Bel Edwards (D) was reelected in red, red Louisiana, despite-- or more likely because of-- a barrage of Trump's carrying on and tons and tons of Republican sewer money:

• John Bel Edwards (D)- 763,386 (51%)
• Eddie Rispone (R)- 731,455 (49%)

If anyone wasn't already sure, this confirms that Trump has the kiss of death when it comes to endorsing candidates. America is onto this crook, even in states like Louisiana and Kentucky, and if Trump can't win in Louisiana and Kentucky, where exactly can he win? He's still relatively popular in both of those states, but his approval is underwater in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Utah, Montana, Nebraska, Alaska, Ohio... all states he won in 2016. Watch him drag Republican senators Steve Daines, Martha McSally, Cory Gardner, Susan Collins, Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis, David Perdue and Dan Sullivan down the crapper with him. And don't they all ever deserve that!

Chris Strohm and Jordan Fabian, reporting for Bloomberg, wrote that Giuliani is being investigated by the Feds for "campaign finance violations and a failure to register as a foreign agent as part of an active investigation into his financial dealings. The probe of Giuliani, which one official said could also include possible charges on violating laws against bribing foreign officials or conspiracy, presents a serious threat to Trump’s presidency from a man that former national security adviser John Bolton has called a 'hand grenade.'" He is widely expected to be indicted.

Last night, the Washington Post published an Op-Ed by prominent authors Jon Meacham, Walter Issacson and Evan Thomas, It's The Wise Men vs The Wise Guys In Trump's America. They noted that Napoleon is reputed to have said that "geography is destiny" and continued that the axiom "came to our minds this week as we watched two very different but neighboring universes collide before the House Intelligence Committee. The ramrod-straight William B. Taylor Jr. and the bow-tied George Kent, two diplomats from the largely WASP ethos of the post-World War II foreign policy establishment, one headquartered at places such as the Council on Foreign Relations’ imposing Harold Pratt House at 68th Street and Park Avenue, found themselves bearing noble witness amid an impeachment imbroglio that may be best understood by an appreciation of the wilder mores of midtown Manhattan. Only a few blocks away from the portrait-lined walls and genteel cocktails of the Council lies the real center of gravity in the politics of 2019: the gilded Trump Tower, built on the fluid morals and cutthroat deal-making of New York real estate. The Tower sits cheek-by-jowl (the image is chosen purposely) with the Grand Havana Room, a cigar club frequented by Rudy Giuliani, atop a Fifth Avenue building owned by the family of Jared Kushner. Walk a bit farther south-- you don’t even need a Town Car-- and you reach Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp., home of Fox News and the New York Post."

To Trump supporters, the testimony Wednesday was the “deep state” surfacing briefly from the depths of white papers, institutional knowledge and a facility with U.S. military and diplomatic history. (Kent’s evocation of von Steuben and Lafayette was straight out of a Ward Just novel.)

To Trump’s critics and defenders of constitutional norms, the Republican narrative that the president’s threats to deny security assistance to Ukraine was just the kind of thing tough guys do (and, after getting caught, he didn’t do it!), suggested that tabloid hyperbole, Fox News arcana and New York hardball had replaced the real world. From the Long Telegram to Twitter, and from Averell Harriman to Sean Hannity: To borrow a phrase of Henry Adams, himself a scion of presidents, the current moment disproves Darwin.

The story of upended conventions and of a president who careens between self-parody and serious lawlessness is by now familiar, as old as the Age of Trump itself. The distinction is that the impeachment hearings have given us perhaps the clearest example yet of the triumph of political demimonde wise guys such as Trump, Giuliani and the Rogers Stone and Ailes over the latter-day Robert Lovetts and Dean Achesons. And it’s not just Wise Men, of course: Jeane Kirkpatrick, Madeleine Albright and Condoleezza Rice hailed from the establishment world, as do Marie Yovanovitch and Fiona Hill.

The moment of decision between the Wise Men and the wise guys on Wednesday was subtle but nevertheless clear. It came when Rep. Michael R. Turner, a Republican, noted that diplomats such as Taylor and Kent “deal in words of understanding. Words of beliefs and feelings, because in your profession, that’s what you work with to try to pull together policy.” Theirs, the lawmaker was implying, was almost a touchingly naive way of life in which one trusted what one was told, assumed the fundamental truthfulness of, say, a presidentially appointed ambassador, and believed that a president himself meant what he said.

No longer: The midtown game of wheeling and dealing, often done over a cigar at the Grand Havana or perhaps an overpriced steak at 21, has now gone global as the denizens of Trump’s neighborhood run shadow foreign policy ops seeking 2020 election help and good paydays.

Had any other president, Taylor was asked, linked official aid in the American interest to private or political benefit? With a stoicism and brevity that would’ve made George Marshall quietly proud, Taylor replied, “No.”

To be sure, the establishment has been far from perfect, its fall from preeminence more than partly self-inflicted. Elite education and conventional expertise don’t guarantee good results, and America has been shaped by the battle between the privileged and the populist since long before Andrew Jackson. More recently, there was Vietnam writ large, and intelligence failures like Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction. Grass-stained ideals of fair play learned on the playing fields of Groton could seem like forlorn hopes on the streets Basra or Baghdad. And the semi-aristocrats of places like Pratt House and the Century Association had a way of turning up their noses at the lesser mortals of Trump’s bridge-and-tunnel crowd.

Alger Hiss once inflamed a young congressman named Richard Nixon when he turned to Nixon, who was about to ask some probing questions about Hiss’s ties to the Kremlin, and sneered, “My law school was Harvard. Yours, I believe, was Whittier?” (Actually, it was Duke.) No wonder Nixon could sell himself as a man of the people when Hiss turned out to be a communist spy.

Such establishment condescension also fueled the rise of Joe McCarthy and of McCarthy’s chief counsel, Roy Cohn, who served as lawyer and mentor in the 1970s and ’80s to a young developer from Queens who was looking to make it big in Manhattan. And Donald Trump never forgot a thing Cohn taught him. (One particularly relevant lesson today: Confronted with a tough case to argue, Cohn would say that he didn’t need to know what the law was-- just who the judge was.)

In midtown Manhattan, Trump learned to dominate the news — in his rise, that meant the New York Post, with its screaming, one-sourced stories, an early harbinger of the presidential Twitter strategy. He learned the power of TV. And he learned that tough guys — or “killers,” in a favorite approbation of Trump’s-- like Ailes, who presided over this stew of often-abusive power, money and misinformation, were the kinds of guys he could count on.

For one thing was certain: The Wise Men of 68th Street or the United Nations or any of the traditional institutions of expertise weren’t his guys. The question America now faces in impeachment and, should Trump prevail, in the 2020 election, is whose New York will serve us best in the long run-- the wise guys’ or the Wise Men’s?

I bet you don't have to think about which side of the equation, the wretched and pathetic Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III falls on. Really wretched. You don't have watch them both... but you can. This doozy came first, "Blow Great Job:"





A week later, for whatever reason, Sessions' senate campaign released this cringe-worthy little portrait that illustrates how the Trump Regime is more a product of this America than an actual creator of it:

Can Trump Manage To Get Doug Jones Reelected In Alabama?

Alabama Senator Doug Jones isn't my idea of a Democrat. His record-- although not as bad as Arizona psychopth Kyrsten Sinema's-- is horrifying. It's not easy for a Democrat to rack up a worse voting record than Joe Manchin... but Jones, in an effort to extend his stay in the Senate, has managed to do so. He votes like a moderate Republican. His record has far more in common with Susan Collins (R-ME) than ever a moderate Democrat's like Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Bob Casey (D-PA) or Tammy Duckworth (D-IL). People excuse him voting with Republicans on crucial votes-- like confirming Bill Barr as Attorney General-- because... hey, it's Alabama. No one voting to confirm a criminal like Barr should be allowed to call himself a Democrat, whether it's Alabama or Arizona or West Virginia.

White Alabama is a proud Trump state. The PVI is R+14 and the only reason it isn't R+20-something is because there is a very substantial African-American population, largely descendants of the former slaves who built the state. Massively gerrymandered AL-07 has a PVI of D+20. In 2016, the state voted for Trump 1,318,255 (62.08%) to 729,547 (34.36%), while AL-07 went for Hillary 69.8% to 28.6%.

The only reason Jones was elected was because the GOP nominated a child molester, Roy Moore, as their candidate. And even then, Jones-- despite enthusiastic support from Trump for Moore-- only managed to win the special election very narrowly-- 673,896 (50.0%) to 651,972 (48.3%). Most observers agree that the only way Jones can be reelected next year is if the Republican renominate Moore. And they might. He has a hard-core base of dangerous morons-- just like Trump's followers.

There are a dozen Republicans competing for the seat-- crackpot TV evangelist Stanley Adair, far right Trumpist Congressman Bradley Byrne, former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville, Secretary of State John Merrill, state Rep. Arnold Mooney, child molester Roy Moore and former Senator, popular Saturday Night Live character and fired U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions-- as well as several random vanity candidates. The only poll I could find is way out of date (late June) and doesn't take Sessions into account. The Republican-only poll shows Trump still wildly popular among Alabamians (84.3%). It also show this result for the Senate race:

• Tommy Tuberville- 29.3%
• Bradley Byrne- 21.4%
• Roy Moore- 13.0%
• John Merrill- 11.8%
• Arnold Mooney- 2.2%

The poll also indicates that 31.1% of Republicans are either very likely or somewhat likely to vote for Jones if Moore is the Republican nominee again. The best way to avoid that catastrophe for the GOP would be to nominate Jeff Sessions. The fly in the ointment, however, is... Señor Trumpanzee. The NY Times reported that before Sessions announced, Trump sent word to him "through allies that he would publicly attack him if he ran." Meanwhile Seung Min Kim, Josh Dawsey and Sean Sullivan reported for the Washington Post that Sessions is probably the best way for Republicans to win back the seat. "But," they wrote, "the wild card in the race will be Trump, and whether he will weigh in against his former attorney general and in favor of other Republicans who have already announced their candidacies... Trump never forgave Sessions for recusing himself from the Justice Department investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, frequently berating him on Twitter for a move he viewed as a betrayal." The ego-maniac-in-chief "has discussed attacking Sessions with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and McConnell has shared that he also has concerns about Sessions running because it could create a messy primary contest for a seat Republicans feel they have to win, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the issue. Trump has repeatedly denigrated Sessions to allies and White House aides in recent days, people familiar with his comments said. Sessions has not spoken with either Trump or McConnell about his plans to run, according to people familiar with the matter."

Sessions was on Fox last night with Tucker Carlson announcing his candidacy. And what a hoot this ad is. Too bad it's not going to be shown on national TV except as part of news stories. But will it actually be able to even come close to mollifying Señor Trumpanzee, who has said he plans to actively campaign against Sessions in Alabama? I doubt it.

“This is a nightmare for D.C. Republicans that just want to defeat Doug Jones,” said Dan Eberhart, an oil industry executive and a GOP donor who plans to back Sessions. “This is going to tie Trump and McConnell in knots.”

Jones delivered the GOP a stunning setback by flipping the seat in 2017. He defied the state’s strong conservative tilt with a victory over Republican Roy Moore, who faced allegations that he made sexual advances on teenagers when he was in his 30s.

...Jones’s defeat of Moore was seen as one of the low points of Trump’s first two years in office, demoralizing party leaders and straining the relationship between the president and McConnell. Top Republicans have had their eyes on reclaiming the seat since.

But first, they will have to settle their nomination fight, the contestants for which will soon be finalized ahead of the Friday filing deadline. The primary is March 3.

The field already includes Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-AL), who had been seen as a leading candidate. In a statement, Byrne signaled that he would not be deterred by the entrance of Sessions and foreshadowed a line of attack against the former attorney general.

“From the Mueller investigation to this impeachment sham, President Trump has been under constant attack,” said Byrne, referring to the former special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. “I won’t sit back and watch them destroy our country. Alabama deserves a Senator who will stand with the president and won’t run away and hide from the fight.”

Also running for the Republican nomination are former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill, state Rep. Arnold Mooney and Moore, who has acknowledged interactions with the women who accused him but has denied any sexual contact. Tuberville and Byrne have led in public and internal GOP polling.

But Trump looms larger over the contest than any other Republican. He has even joked to senators and White House aides that he would move to Alabama and compete against Sessions himself in the primary, two people familiar with his comments said.

...“He’ll be a factor,” Shelby said of Trump. “But I think if Sessions runs, he’d be a formidable candidate. But you have to win it on the battlefield.”

Sessions has largely stayed out of the public eye since his dismissal last fall. But he spoke at Northwestern University earlier this week, where he declined to directly criticize the president and praised the administration's policies, according to the school’s student newspaper.

“I had never watched [Trump’s] program on TV, I didn’t know how many people he’d fired-- maybe I’d have been more careful,” Sessions said, according to the Daily Northwestern. “The president is allowed to fire you, but fortunately he doesn’t get to shoot you.”

Can The Democrats Win Back The Senate Next Year?

Dan McCarthy, a right-wing Arizona Republican skincare company executive who is challenging Martha McSally for her Senate seat next year, told a Phoenix radio audience this week that "the Washington DC establishment, Mitch McConnell... the swamp creatures of Washington, DC-- they've given us two choices, McSally or Kelly. I'm a conservative outsider. I've been looking at this for a little while and I said, 'I'm not so sure if that's acceptable to me; I'd don't know if the status quo's OK... What I'm hearing is-- from a lot of people-- very smart people, by the way-- that losing another Senate seat is unacceptable... I think the voters deserve an actual choice, not an appointment. People like the idea of a conservative outsider... I don't think Arizona will allow DC money to buy votes."

McConnell and the DSCC are counting on holding the Arizona seat, one of the two top Democratic Party targets for the 2020 Senate elections. If Bernie and/or Elizabeth Warren wins in 2020 a hostile McConnell-lead Senate will be pretty deadly for all their plans. 2018's anti-Red wave didn't extend into the Senate races last year and the Democrats ate shit, losing seats where very right-wing Democrats had been banking on the accumulation of Republican-lite voting records to save them. It didn't work. There are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including 2 independents) in the Senate today. 4 of the worst Senate Democrats-- Claire McCaskill (MO), Heidi Heitkamp (ND), Bill Nelson (FL) and Joe Donnelly (IN), perfect DSCC lesser-of-two evils candidates-- lost seats that the Democrats couldn't afford to lose, even while 3 of them outspent their Republican opponents. The only Republican incumbent the Democrats managed to oust was Dean Heller (NV), who Trump had been spatting with and who was not embraced by Trumpist voters. The Democrats managed to slip another worthless conservative, Jackie Rosen, into the seat-- a complete waste. (She already sports a solid "F" from ProgressivePunch and currently is ranked as the 4th worst Democrat in the House.

Even worse than Rosen, was the other winner (of Jeff Flake's open seat) from 2018. Kyrsten Sinema was previously the worst Democrat in the House. She has already surpassed Joe Manchin (54.01) and Doug Jones (46.88) as the Senate's worst Democrat (43.40). Congratulations to Little Chucky Schmucky, who hand-picked her. For 2020 Senator Schmucky, has picked an "ex"-Republican, Mark Kelly, for the Arizona special election to fill McCain's seat (temporarily filled by appointee Martha McSally).

If Elizabeth Warren or another Democrat is vice president, the Democrats will have to win a net of 3 seats to wrest the leadership away from McConnell. That means they have to reelect Doug Jones in Alabama (R+14) and win 3 of these seats or 4 if they lose in Alabama:

• Alaska (R+9)- Dan Sullivan
• Arizona (R+5)- Martha McSally
• Colorado (D+1)- Cory Gardner
• Georgia (R+5)- David Perdue
• Iowa (R+3)- Joni Ernst
• Kansas (R+13)- (Open)
• Kentucky (R+15)- McConnell
• Maine (D+3)- Susan Collins
• North Carolina (R+3)- Thom Tillis
• Tennessee (R+14)- (open)
• Texas (R+8)- John Cornyn

Even with Sen Schmucky making all the (wrong) calls, do the Democrats have a shot at winning next year? They do-- a chance. I want to piece together 3 posts from Thursday in The Hill about this. The first was by Jordain Carney: GOP frets over nightmare scenario for Senate primaries. It actually knits the other two-- Kansas Republican suggests Kobach candidacy threatens Senate GOP majority and Alabama senator says Trump opposed to Sessions Senate bid-- together. "In Alabama and Kansas, two deep-red states that should be safe GOP seats," wrote Carney, "the party is facing bids from conservatives Roy Moore and Kris Kobach, respectively, who are viewed as unelectable in a general election and have a history of stealing the national spotlight. Republicans say they feel good about their chances to hold onto the chamber in 2020-- when they will be playing defense in mostly red territory-- but bloody fights in those two states could help widen Democrats’ path back to the majority."

A GOP operative watching the Senate races who is “cautiously optimistic” about Republicans keeping the majority, warned that Republicans can’t “afford to play games” by potentially nominating a candidate with baggage that compromises their ability to win in November.

“We don’t need to be having any problems, it’s not a state we can stumble in. The map for the majority is OK, but if you have to start diverting resources to Kansas it complicates things,” the operative said, adding that Alabama is also viewed as a “must-win state.”

National groups have wasted little time staking out opposition to Moore and Kobach. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), which is aligned with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), blasted both of their campaign announcements. Neither group has ruled out intervening in the primaries if either emerges as a viable contender for the party’s nomination.

A second Republican strategist added that the message against the candidates is that the two states should be easy Republican wins that will help the party keep control of the chamber-- and “people like Kris Kobach and Roy Moore threaten that.”

“They both have a record of losses that doesn’t sit well with Republican voters,” the strategist added, characterizing the two candidates as an “unnecessary headache” and a “distraction” in the larger battle for the Senate.

It’s not the first time conservative challengers have created early frustrations for Republicans.

During the 2012 cycle, then-Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) was viewed as likely to lose her race until GOP nominee Todd Akin, who defeated more-mainstream picks during the primary, said that “if it’s a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down.”

In the same election cycle, conservative challenger Richard Mourdock defeated longtime Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) during the primary, only to lose against Democratic nominee Joe Donnelly.

But the party has become more adept at beating back primary candidates they either view as anthema to general election voters or likely to spark a fierce intraparty fight.

National Republicans spent heavily in 2018 to successfully defeat former coal CEO Don Blankenship during the West Virginia Republican Senate primary. And, causing a sigh of relief for party leadership, Rep. Mark Walker (R-NC) passed on challenging Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) for the party’s nomination next year.

This cycle they are defending almost two dozen seats, compared to 12 that Democrats are trying to hold onto. But most of the GOP seats are in deeply red states, meaning the battleground for the Senate will likely be limited to a handful of seats like Maine, Colorado and Arizona.

The dynamic has left Republicans feeling optimistic about their ability to hold onto the Senate, where Democrats would need to win at least three seats and the White House in order to have a vice president break ties in their favor in an evenly-divided chamber, and four seats to win an outright majority.

“The map’s going to be fairly large, our members are going to have to work hard to win reelection and we think that they’re well positioned to do that,” said Sen. John Thune (SD), the No. 2 Senate Republican.

Republicans also argue that Democrats have struggled to snag big-name recruits in several Senate races, including Georgia and Montana, that would allow them to expand the map of top-tier races beyond the handful of early toss-up states.

How much of a threat Moore and Kobach will be during the 2020 cycle, and if they can help expand Democrats’ path to retaking the Senate, remains to be seen.

Lacking Moore’s personal baggage, Kobach could be the bigger headache for Republicans. The former Kansas secretary of state lost last year’s gubernatorial election by 5 percentage points. Before that he was considered for a Cabinet post, headed up Trump’s panel investigating alleged voter fraud and was briefly considered for an administration job overseeing immigration policy.

“It seems to me that if you have just lost a statewide race that the chances of you winning, running again for another statewide race would be very difficult,” said Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS), who Kobach is trying to succeed. “Kris Kobach, once he makes up his mind, makes up his mind.”

McConnell sidestepped weighing in on the Kansas Senate race except to plug his preference that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo get in the race.

“I’m not sure the president agrees with this, that I’d love to see the secretary of State run for the Senate in Kansas. But the filing deadline is not until next June,” McConnell said.

Moore won the party’s primary in 2017, including defeating Sen. Luther Strange (R-AL), only to narrowly lose to now-Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) by less than 2 points after facing several allegations of sexual misconduct with teenage girls when he was in his 30s. Moore, 72, denied the allegations, but Republicans are hopeful the damage will keep him in a distant third place during the 2020 race.

McConnell, asked about Moore during a weekly press conference, predicted that Alabamians have “seen quite enough of Roy Moore.”

Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) told The Hill that he had discussed the seat and various candidates with Trump.

“He’s damaged,” Shelby said, about Moore. “He wouldn’t be good for Alabama.” 

Trump, almost never a team player, could hurt the Republicans in Alabama because their surest path to victory would be to nominate Jeff Sessions. Trump is against it. On top of that, he is very much a Kobach fan since, like him, Kobach is an extreme xenophobe and racist. And then there's the albatross problem. Trump is polling badly in Iowa (-12), Maine (-11), Colorado (-12), Arizona (-7), North Carolina (-3) and not as well as he should be in Texas (+4), Kansas (+4), Georgia (0) and Alaska (+4).


UPDATE: The Dems Want To Win? You Sure?

Iowa looks like a very prime target to me, but the DSCC seems to have given up before they started Although Tom Harkin (former Senator), Tom Vilsack (former Governor and Cabinet Member), Chet Culver (former Governor and son of a Senator), Bruce Braley (former Congressman and Senate candidate) and Dave Loebsack (7-term Congressman) all are alive enough to run for the Joni Ernst seat next year. But the DSCC has already endorsed Theresa Greenfield, who was disqualified in her House campaign last year for forging signature petitions, and has no relevant experience or accomplishments whatsoever. This is likely to be a wipeout that will far surpass the Patty Judge wipeout-- and in a state where Trump is completely underwater and where Ernst is a 100% enabler.

Señor Trumpanzee On 60 Minutes

Even if Trump loses the presidency and the Democrats hold the House, McConnell will still be able to block a progressive agenda if the GOP holds the Senate— or even a strong minority in the Senate. The Republicans are fighting to hold onto a majority and they will have all the money in the world to do just that. One screw up would be not being able to win back the Alabama Senate seat they narrowly lost to Doug Jones when Trump named Jeff Sessions Attorney General and then Republican voters nominated extremist and— worse for some GOP voters— child molester Roy Moore to replace Sessions. As we saw last Friday, Moore can easily win a Republican primary but not a general election, not even in Alabama. (Although he almost won— 673,896 (50.0%) to 651,972 (48.350). Anyway, now that Moore is running again, McConnell and the Alabama Republican Party think their way out of that potential pitfall is to recruit a very reticent Sessions— who announced he’s done with politics— to run for his old seat again, even to just serve for a couple of years and have the Republican governor appoint a Republican replacement.

When Trump appeared on Meet The Press yesterday, it isn’t likely that Sessions became any less reticent hearing Trump describe him as his biggest mistake. In response to a question from Chuck Todd, Trump said “I would say if I had one do over, it would be… I would not have appointed Jeff Sessions to be attorney general... That was the biggest mistake.” Now Trump is trying to make sure Moore loses the primary. His comments about Sessions must have made McConnell cringe.




And that wasn’t even the worst part of the 35 minute interview for Trump and his congressional enablers. He wasn’t able to satisfactorily explain the loss of a $130 million drone in the Persian Gulf. He lied on the economy over and over again, especially as soon as Obama came up. He lied about the humanitarian crisis at the border, blaming everyone but himself. He lied about the Mueller report. He lied about how badly treated he and his family have been. He lied about his business career. He lied about healthcare. He lied about the 2016 election results. He lied about every question Todd brought up.

Who’s The Creepiest Old Man In The Senate?

After Republican child molester Roy Moore announced he would be running for the Alabama Senate seat again, appointed Senator Martha McSally of Arizona was quoted by Politico’s Burgess Everett saying “Give me a break! This place has enough creepy old men!” Was she wasn’t referring to Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and some of the other creepy old men in the Senate? No doubt— but this time the whole DC wing of the GOP is united against Roy Moore, the Alabama Republican ho has already proven he can win Republican primaries in his state— and not general elections. And speaking of McTurtle… he’s flipping out. If the Democrats can hold onto the Alabama seat, there’s a good chance McConnell won’t be majority leader in 2021— or ever again.

Alabama has a statewide PVI of R+14, one of the worst in the country. In 2016, Señor Trumpanzee beat Hillary there 1,318,255 (62.1%) to 729,547 (34.4%). And yet when Trumpanzee named Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions Attorney General, the voters of Alabama replaced him with Democrat Doug Jones instead of Moore— 673,896 (50.0%) to 651,972 (48.350. Trump campaigned vigorously for Moore but many Alabama voters saw it as one sex deviant supporting another sex deviant and just stayed away from the polls. The institutional Republican Party immediately pledged to do everything it could do to derail Moore’s primary bid this time. One possibility would be to dig up Jeff Sessions to run for his old seat again, although he has indicated he’s finished with politics after his acrimonious months as part of the Trump regime.

"There will be a lot of efforts made to ensure that we have a nominee other than him and one who can win in November,” said Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.). “He’s already proven he can’t.”

Added Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, “We’ll be opposing Roy Moore vigorously."

A Moore candidacy could harm Republicans’ national brand if he catches fire again, and incumbents running in purple states— like Gardner and McSally— are loath to find themselves tied to him. And facing a tougher 2020 map with several battleground seats in play, Republicans are eager to beat Jones and cushion their majority.

If Republicans do defeat Jones, that would require Democrats to pick up a minimum of four seats elsewhere to take the Senate. Alabama should be an easy pickup for Republicans, given the state’s bright red hue and Trump’s popularity, which is why Moore’s new run is causing such alarm in the GOP.

“You think it’s been divisive before? It gets really divisive on the other side,” Jones said of Moore’s Senate bid. Moore defeated former Sen. Luther Strange (R-AL) in 2017 despite significant support from the party establishment.

…Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-AL) and former Auburn Coach Tommy Tuberville are already in the race, and Rep. Gary Palmer (R-AL) is considering it. But that crowded field could easily play to Moore’s advantage given his past popularity with the state’s most conservative voters. What's more, Moore also could conceivably win a general election with Trump atop the ticket, a nightmare for the Senate GOP that would then have to deal with a bomb-thrower in the caucus.

The president and his son, Donald Trump Jr., have already expressed their dissatisfaction with Moore’s run. Trump tweeted last month that Moore “cannot win,” and Trump Jr. tweeted Thursday that “Roy Moore is going against my father and he’s doing a disservice to all conservatives across the country in the process.”

“The people of Alabama rejected Roy Moore just a few months ago. And I don’t see that anything has changed,” said Sen. Todd Young (R-IN), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Yet Moore has been unbowed by that criticism, seeking to run once against as an outsider against the establishment. Republicans largely pulled their support from his bid after the sexual misconduct allegations were reported by the Washington Post, leaving Moore adrift in a race that should have been an easy GOP hold.

On Thursday, Moore called out Young for opposing his candidacy and slammed both the NRSC and the Senate Leadership Fund, an outside group that spent heavily against Moore in 2017. He accused the NRSC of running a “smear campaign” and bashed Shelby for doubting his viability.

“Why such a hatred and opposition to somebody running? Why does mere mention of my name cause people just to get up in arms in Washington, D.C.?" Moore said at a news conference Thursday.

That combative stance is leading some Republicans to suggest Trump may have to do more, because otherwise “we probably lose the seat,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX).

“I’m concerned,” Cornyn said. “If President Trump came out forcefully against him … that would certainly make it more likely that somebody else will get nominated.”

Yet Republicans are also wary of doing anything that could repeat the debacle of 2017, when support from Senate Republicans seemed to weigh on Strange and give Moore an opening in the primary. The Senate Leadership Fund is not yet vowing to spend in the race, waiting to see if his candidacy will fall apart on its own, and senators said they need to have a lighter touch this time around to stop Moore from succeed.

“We will do everything we can to stop him. But we need to be careful about that,” said one Republican senator. “We have to be more elegant.”

Not an NRSC strong suit. Moore is likely to run against the establishment. McConnell is an easy enemy even inside the GOP, where he’s hated everywhere. Moore: "I think there was so much opposition because they don't want the truth in Washington. I think they want to continue the status quo." That’s a message that resonates among Alabama Republicans, who could easily be offended by DC politicians telling them who their nominee will be.

Maine Had A Wave

Republicans in Maine did a lot of losing yesterday. Eric Brakey tried taking out Angus King and got 35.2% of the vote for his effort. Chellie Pingree was reelected to the House with 58.9% of the vote. Republican Mark Holbrook took just under a third of the vote-- 106,750 (32.3%). And in the second district, the race is too close to call, although it looks like Democrat Jared Golden may well replace Republican incumbent Bruce Poliquin. The Democrats also took control of the state Senate, winning at least 21 seats in the 35-seat chamber, and increased their majority in the state House, with at least 81 of the 151 seats. And... the day after termed out Governor Paul LePage announced he's had enough of Maine and is moving to Florida, the voters chose Democrat Janet Mills to replace him. She took 310,493 votes (51.1%) with Republican Shawn Moody, the Republican in the race, taking 261,353 votes (43.0%) In all, a very bad day for the GOP.

So no one should have been surprised today when she took one look at Trump's immediate steps to end the Mueller investigation and tweeted her disapproval:

Too late; the damage is down. She voted to confirm Kavanaugh and she cuddled up with Trump enough to make normal Mainers sick (literally and figuratively.

But now she's concerned? Was she not paying attention for the last coupla years? Who, oh, who could have guessed Trump would interfere with the investigation? Or that there is a single normal Trump would hesitate to break? Susan Collins is concerned. She's going to be a lot more concerned when she's on the ballot with him in 2020.

And what about Trump's threats today to "have" the Senate "investigate" Democratic members of Congress if any committees start investigating him, probably the top reason why millions of voters decided to replace Republicans with Democrats in the House. The New York Times reported that Trump said he would adopt a "warlike posture" towards the House Democrats if they did. "They can play that game, but we can play better because we have a thing called the United States Senate and a lot of questionable things were done between leaks of classified information and many other elements that should not have taken place... I could see it being extremely good for me politically because I think I’m better at that game than they are, actually, but we’ll find out."

It doesn't seem like any other Republicans are concerned about that or that Trump fired Sessions half a day after the midterms and replaced Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein with a stooge, Matthew Whitaker, to "oversee" Mueller and his team. Don't recall Whitaker? He was the one who wrote an OpEd last year claiming that if Mueller looked into the Trump crime family finances he would be "dangerously close to crossing" a red line.

Into the Swamp by Nancy Ohanian

Someone Please Get Señor Trumpanzee A Hanky

Trumpanzee, always delighted to play the fool and play the victim, whined during a Hill.TV interview that "I don’t have an attorney general. It’s very sad." Get me a box of tissues, quick. "I’m not happy at the border, I’m not happy with numerous things, not just this... I’m so sad over Jeff Sessions because he came to me. He was the first senator that endorsed me. And he wanted to be attorney general, and I didn’t see it. And then he went through the nominating process and he did very poorly. I mean, he was mixed up and confused, and people that worked with him for, you know, a long time in the Senate were not nice to him, but he was giving very confusing answers. Answers that should have been easily answered. And that was a rough time for him."

Apparently someone had prevailed upon Trump not to call Sessions a dumb Southern hick again and not to denigrate his southern accent. ('Bad for the dumb Southern hick vote, your highness.') Let me bring this up again before going further into the morass of a what passes for reasoning:

"He gets in and probably because of the experience that he had going through the nominating when somebody asked him the first question about Hillary Clinton or something he said 'I recuse myself, I recuse myself.' And now it turned out he didn’t have to recuse himself. Actually, the FBI reported shortly thereafter any reason for him to recuse himself. And it’s very sad what happened... We’ll see what happens. A lot of people have asked me to do that [fire Sessions]. And I guess I study history, and I say I just want to leave things alone, but it was very unfair what he did. And my worst enemies, I mean, people that, you know, are on the other side of me in a lot of ways, including politically, have said that was a very unfair thing he did. We’ll see how it goes with Jeff. I’m very disappointed in Jeff. Very disappointed."

Late yesterday, Ashley Parker and Phil Rucker wrote for the Washington Post that Señor Trumpanzee’s "declaration that 'I don’t have an attorney general' was not merely the cry of an executive feeling betrayed by a subordinate. It was also a raw expression of vulnerability and anger from a president who associates say increasingly believes he is unprotected-- with the Russia investigation steamrolling ahead, anonymous administration officials seeking to undermine him and a referendum looming in the Nov. 6 midterm elections, the results of which could potentially lead to impeachment proceedings... Publicly, at least, Trump is going through the ordinary motions of being presiden… Behind the scenes, however, Trump is confronting broadsides from every direction-- legal, political and personal." Mavis, where that tiny violin? Bring it here. Or, better yet, let's all read Adele Stans' powerful piece for the American Prospect yesterday, I Know Why Sexually Assaulted Women Resist Coming Forward; I’ve Been There. "To name your attacker," she wrote, "is to invite vilification by a society more inclined to believe him than you." Right-- and no violins needed.

At first glance, the willingness of the Republican majority on the Senate Judiciary Committee to call a hastily organized hearing on Monday to examine allegations by Christine Blasey Ford that she was sexual assaulted by Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh may look like an attempt at fairness, but it’s not. In fact, it demonstrates several of many reasons that women often don’t come forward after being the target of sexual assault or misconduct.

The fact that the committee refuses to allow an investigation of Ford’s claim that Kavanaugh attacked her sexually at a party when they were both in high school-- whether by the FBI or another neutral entity with expertise in the examination of sexual assault allegations-- shows that the committee Chairman Charles Grassley is more interested in quickly dispensing with Ford’s allegation. And he plans to do so in a setting that places Ford in jeopardy of being maligned on national television, echoing the power imbalance that nearly always exists between a sexual assault survivor and the perpetrator. Only here, that imbalance is exponentially exacerbated by the resources and political power behind Kavanaugh and his nomination to the highest court in the land.

Once the existence of her letter to Representative Anna Eshoo, Democrat of California, was leaked to The Intercept, and Ford, who had requested anonymity, felt compelled to come forward (given the near certainty that the leaking of her name was imminent), her vilification by right-wing media and derision by Republicans on the committee was ensured.

Foremost among the suspicion-mongers on the committee and conspiracy theorists of the right was the question, why did she take so long to come forward?

I know why. It’s the same reason I never came forward when, in 1979, I was raped in my dorm room by an acquaintance. And you know what? I never will likely name my attacker, unless in the unlikely event that he ever comes up for a lifetime appointment on the federal judiciary. And even in that circumstance, I’d have to give it a good long think before I did.

My reasons for not doing so are likely similar to those for which Ford was reluctant to make public her claim against Kavanaugh. I wouldn’t have expected the men who still hold power over prosecutions and the institutions of society to have advocated for me. I believe I would have been painted as a liar and loose girl of low morals. After all, I had been drinking. I had been part of the party before I went to bed. (And, unlike Ford, I had a “reputation.”) I would have been accused of trying to ruin the virtuous life of the attacker, who had a fiancée he planned to marry in the Catholic Church.

In grand scheme of things, there is clearly no benefit to Christine Blasey Ford in having come forward. Her attorney says she’s receiving death threats. Right-wing activists are making false claims about her life, ranging from her ratings as a professor to her parents’ financial woes.

Senator Orrin Hatch, Republican of Utah, described Ford as “mixed up.” Alas, this is not surprising, given that when Clarence Thomas’s nomination to the Supreme Court was called into question by Anita Hill, Hatch described Hill, a law professor, as confused over the identity of her harasser. Hatch’s colleague, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, called the late revelation of Ford’s allegation against Kavanaugh “a drive-by shooting.”

Without an investigation, how on earth could any woman alleging a sexual attack by a man as powerful as Kavanaugh, to expect a fair hearing of her claim—especially in a setting in which the nominee would not only present his rebuttal, but might also allow for the cross-examination of Ford by Kavanaugh’s attorney, as Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, suggested?

The naysayers invested in Kavanaugh’s ascension to the high court contend that because the attack Ford alleges occurred 36 years ago, no investigation is possible. That is simply not true. Others who attended that party can be located. Classmates can be interviewed. Mark Judge, the Kavanaugh buddy whom Ford says was in the room at the time of the attack, could be summoned.

Any transgression of a sexual nature leaves a permanent mark on the transgressed. In the case of the incident described by Ford, she says that Kavanaugh put his hand over her mouth as he tried to mount her and tear off her clothes. That’s terrifying to contemplate-an action that would be truly traumatizing to the victim, and one that suggests that the perpetrator was well aware that his target had not consented to his despicable brand of fun.

Doesn’t the Senate Judiciary Committee owe it to the American people to thoroughly investigate whether that’s the kind of man who, with his colleagues on the loftiest bench, will have ultimate say over the laws that will shape the lives of generations to come? And doesn’t Christine Blasey Ford have a right to bear witness with facts established by an impartial investigative body?

Anyone who would say “no” to either of those questions cares far more for their own uncontested power than they do for equal justice under law.

Is The Failing, Treasonous NY Times Trying To Drive Trumpanzee Insane?

Did you ever doubt that Trumpanzee called Jeff Sessions a retard? Why? Once Melania almost left him because, referring to his youngest son's autism on Howard Stern's radio show, he called Barron a retard. After she flipped out, he said he didn't mean Barron, but Donald, Jr. Yesterday, the Daily Beast confirmed that Trump is always calling Sessions a retard. Trump, wrote Asawin Suebsaeng, "definitely believes-- and has said so out loud-- that his own Attorney General, Jeff Sessions, is a "retard."

Two people with direct knowledge of Trump’s comments tell the Daily Beast that they have heard the president mock Sessions-- a frequent target of his cyber-bullying and degradation-- as mentally deficient, personally annoying, and “retarded” and a “retard.”

Today, the NY Times editorial page explained that it was "taking the rare step of publishing an anonymous Op-Ed essay. We have done so at the request of the author, a senior official in the Trump administration whose identity is known to us and whose job would be jeopardized by its disclosure. We believe publishing this essay anonymously is the only way to deliver an important perspective to our readers."

Honestly it was shocking and, no doubt, Trump is simultaneously trying to find out who it is while assuring his retarded supporters that it's fake news. (Yes, of course I apologize; I just couldn't help myself.) Ready to ready a few excepts from I Am Part of the Resistance Inside the Trump Administration? This seems exciting a book-worthy: "I work for the president but like-minded colleagues and I have vowed to thwart parts of his agenda and his worst inclinations." I hate all this referencing of him as "president." People should either say "the occupant of the White House" or, if they must, :the illegitimate president," which is far more accurate than the "president." I usually call him Señor Trumpanzee.

President Trump is facing a test to his presidency unlike any faced by a modern American leader.

It’s not just that the special counsel looms large. Or that the country is bitterly divided over Mr. Trump’s leadership. Or even that his party might well lose the House to an opposition hellbent on his downfall.

The dilemma-- which he does not fully grasp-- is that many of the senior officials in his own administration are working diligently from within to frustrate parts of his agenda and his worst inclinations.

I would know. I am one of them.

To be clear, ours is not the popular “resistance” of the left. We want the administration to succeed and think that many of its policies have already made America safer and more prosperous.

But we believe our first duty is to this country, and the president continues to act in a manner that is detrimental to the health of our republic.

That is why many Trump appointees have vowed to do what we can to preserve our democratic institutions while thwarting Mr. Trump’s more misguided impulses until he is out of office.

The root of the problem is the president’s amorality. Anyone who works with him knows he is not moored to any discernible first principles that guide his decision making.

Although he was elected as a Republican, the president shows little affinity for ideals long espoused by conservatives: free minds, free markets and free people. At best, he has invoked these ideals in scripted settings. At worst, he has attacked them outright.

In addition to his mass-marketing of the notion that the press is the “enemy of the people,” President Trump’s impulses are generally anti-trade and anti-democratic.

...From the White House to executive branch departments and agencies, senior officials will privately admit their daily disbelief at the commander in chief’s comments and actions. Most are working to insulate their operations from his whims.

Meetings with him veer off topic and off the rails, he engages in repetitive rants, and his impulsiveness results in half-baked, ill-informed and occasionally reckless decisions that have to be walked back.

“There is literally no telling whether he might change his mind from one minute to the next,” a top official complained to me recently, exasperated by an Oval Office meeting at which the president flip-flopped on a major policy decision he’d made only a week earlier.

Do you think our "president" is sleeping tonight?

The erratic behavior would be more concerning if it weren’t for unsung heroes in and around the White House. Some of his aides have been cast as villains by the media. But in private, they have gone to great lengths to keep bad decisions contained to the West Wing, though they are clearly not always successful.

It may be cold comfort in this chaotic era, but Americans should know that there are adults in the room. We fully recognize what is happening. And we are trying to do what’s right even when Donald Trump won’t.

The result is a two-track presidency.

Take foreign policy: In public and in private, President Trump shows a preference for autocrats and dictators, such as President Vladimir Putin of Russia and North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, and displays little genuine appreciation for the ties that bind us to allied, like-minded nations.

Astute observers have noted, though, that the rest of the administration is operating on another track, one where countries like Russia are called out for meddling and punished accordingly, and where allies around the world are engaged as peers rather than ridiculed as rivals.

...Given the instability many witnessed, there were early whispers within the cabinet of invoking the 25th Amendment, which would start a complex process for removing the president. But no one wanted to precipitate a constitutional crisis. So we will do what we can to steer the administration in the right direction until-- one way or another-- it’s over.

The bigger concern is not what Mr. Trump has done to the presidency but rather what we as a nation have allowed him to do to us. We have sunk low with him and allowed our discourse to be stripped of civility.

...There is a quiet resistance within the administration of people choosing to put country first. But the real difference will be made by everyday citizens rising above politics, reaching across the aisle and resolving to shed the labels in favor of a single one: Americans.