Can Trump Manage To Get Doug Jones Reelected In Alabama?

Alabama Senator Doug Jones isn't my idea of a Democrat. His record-- although not as bad as Arizona psychopth Kyrsten Sinema's-- is horrifying. It's not easy for a Democrat to rack up a worse voting record than Joe Manchin... but Jones, in an effort to extend his stay in the Senate, has managed to do so. He votes like a moderate Republican. His record has far more in common with Susan Collins (R-ME) than ever a moderate Democrat's like Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Bob Casey (D-PA) or Tammy Duckworth (D-IL). People excuse him voting with Republicans on crucial votes-- like confirming Bill Barr as Attorney General-- because... hey, it's Alabama. No one voting to confirm a criminal like Barr should be allowed to call himself a Democrat, whether it's Alabama or Arizona or West Virginia.

White Alabama is a proud Trump state. The PVI is R+14 and the only reason it isn't R+20-something is because there is a very substantial African-American population, largely descendants of the former slaves who built the state. Massively gerrymandered AL-07 has a PVI of D+20. In 2016, the state voted for Trump 1,318,255 (62.08%) to 729,547 (34.36%), while AL-07 went for Hillary 69.8% to 28.6%.

The only reason Jones was elected was because the GOP nominated a child molester, Roy Moore, as their candidate. And even then, Jones-- despite enthusiastic support from Trump for Moore-- only managed to win the special election very narrowly-- 673,896 (50.0%) to 651,972 (48.3%). Most observers agree that the only way Jones can be reelected next year is if the Republican renominate Moore. And they might. He has a hard-core base of dangerous morons-- just like Trump's followers.

There are a dozen Republicans competing for the seat-- crackpot TV evangelist Stanley Adair, far right Trumpist Congressman Bradley Byrne, former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville, Secretary of State John Merrill, state Rep. Arnold Mooney, child molester Roy Moore and former Senator, popular Saturday Night Live character and fired U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions-- as well as several random vanity candidates. The only poll I could find is way out of date (late June) and doesn't take Sessions into account. The Republican-only poll shows Trump still wildly popular among Alabamians (84.3%). It also show this result for the Senate race:

• Tommy Tuberville- 29.3%
• Bradley Byrne- 21.4%
• Roy Moore- 13.0%
• John Merrill- 11.8%
• Arnold Mooney- 2.2%

The poll also indicates that 31.1% of Republicans are either very likely or somewhat likely to vote for Jones if Moore is the Republican nominee again. The best way to avoid that catastrophe for the GOP would be to nominate Jeff Sessions. The fly in the ointment, however, is... Señor Trumpanzee. The NY Times reported that before Sessions announced, Trump sent word to him "through allies that he would publicly attack him if he ran." Meanwhile Seung Min Kim, Josh Dawsey and Sean Sullivan reported for the Washington Post that Sessions is probably the best way for Republicans to win back the seat. "But," they wrote, "the wild card in the race will be Trump, and whether he will weigh in against his former attorney general and in favor of other Republicans who have already announced their candidacies... Trump never forgave Sessions for recusing himself from the Justice Department investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, frequently berating him on Twitter for a move he viewed as a betrayal." The ego-maniac-in-chief "has discussed attacking Sessions with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and McConnell has shared that he also has concerns about Sessions running because it could create a messy primary contest for a seat Republicans feel they have to win, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the issue. Trump has repeatedly denigrated Sessions to allies and White House aides in recent days, people familiar with his comments said. Sessions has not spoken with either Trump or McConnell about his plans to run, according to people familiar with the matter."

Sessions was on Fox last night with Tucker Carlson announcing his candidacy. And what a hoot this ad is. Too bad it's not going to be shown on national TV except as part of news stories. But will it actually be able to even come close to mollifying Señor Trumpanzee, who has said he plans to actively campaign against Sessions in Alabama? I doubt it.

“This is a nightmare for D.C. Republicans that just want to defeat Doug Jones,” said Dan Eberhart, an oil industry executive and a GOP donor who plans to back Sessions. “This is going to tie Trump and McConnell in knots.”

Jones delivered the GOP a stunning setback by flipping the seat in 2017. He defied the state’s strong conservative tilt with a victory over Republican Roy Moore, who faced allegations that he made sexual advances on teenagers when he was in his 30s.

...Jones’s defeat of Moore was seen as one of the low points of Trump’s first two years in office, demoralizing party leaders and straining the relationship between the president and McConnell. Top Republicans have had their eyes on reclaiming the seat since.

But first, they will have to settle their nomination fight, the contestants for which will soon be finalized ahead of the Friday filing deadline. The primary is March 3.

The field already includes Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-AL), who had been seen as a leading candidate. In a statement, Byrne signaled that he would not be deterred by the entrance of Sessions and foreshadowed a line of attack against the former attorney general.

“From the Mueller investigation to this impeachment sham, President Trump has been under constant attack,” said Byrne, referring to the former special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. “I won’t sit back and watch them destroy our country. Alabama deserves a Senator who will stand with the president and won’t run away and hide from the fight.”

Also running for the Republican nomination are former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill, state Rep. Arnold Mooney and Moore, who has acknowledged interactions with the women who accused him but has denied any sexual contact. Tuberville and Byrne have led in public and internal GOP polling.

But Trump looms larger over the contest than any other Republican. He has even joked to senators and White House aides that he would move to Alabama and compete against Sessions himself in the primary, two people familiar with his comments said.

...“He’ll be a factor,” Shelby said of Trump. “But I think if Sessions runs, he’d be a formidable candidate. But you have to win it on the battlefield.”

Sessions has largely stayed out of the public eye since his dismissal last fall. But he spoke at Northwestern University earlier this week, where he declined to directly criticize the president and praised the administration's policies, according to the school’s student newspaper.

“I had never watched [Trump’s] program on TV, I didn’t know how many people he’d fired-- maybe I’d have been more careful,” Sessions said, according to the Daily Northwestern. “The president is allowed to fire you, but fortunately he doesn’t get to shoot you.”