Trump Is Proving To Be Absolutely Toxic For Republicans In Swing Districts Currently Held By Republicans

More Democrats need to run on this and NOT on Pelosi's insane idea of restoring PAY-GO

Two very different polls with interesting information came out this morning, one from Quinnipiac and one from Monmouth. Both carry very bad news for the GOP. I bet you haven't seen this before: American voters believe 55% to 28% that the allegations "anonymous" made-- and that were made by anonymous senior White House staffers in Fear that Trump's top aides work behind his back "to keep him from making what the aides believe are bad decisions"-- are true. Even 27% of Republicans believe it! Normal Americans seem much more certain than Republicans are. Among Democrats, 82% believe the assertions and among Independent voters 52% believe (and 33% don't believe). Asked if Trump is honest or not, 32% of Americans say he is and 60% understand that he's a congenital liar, incapable of opening his filthy mouth without lying. Among Republicans, only 17% understand he's a liar, but 92% of Democrats and 63% of Independents do. Nor is dishonesty the only trait polled that contributes to Trump's overall 38/54% approval/disapproval rating.

• Good leadership skills- No- 57%
• Cares about average Americans- No- 55%
• Level-headed- No- 65%
• Strong- Yes- 57%
• Intelligent- Yes- 51%
• Shares your values- No- 60%
• Mentally stable- Yes- 48% (42% say he's out of his mind)

The all-important fit to serve as president question- 41% say he is and 55% understand he isn't. By a 90-7% margin Republicans think he is fit to serve. 96% of Democrats say he isn't. Among independent votes, 42% say he's fit to serve and 53% say he isn't. That's a pretty bad hand Republicans are going into the midterms with. And that's what the Monmouth Poll dealt with-- but in just 8 key Republican-held battleground districts polled between June and August.

Unfortunately, Monmouth doesn't seem to be releasing the specific information by congressional district. I called them and tried, unsuccessfully, to get it out of them. These are the districts they polled: CA-48 (Rohrabacher), PA-01 (Brian Fitzpatrick), PA-17 (Keith Rothfus), NJ-03 (Tom MacArthur), NJ-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen), OH-12 (Troy Balderson), VA-10 (Barbara Comstock), WV-03 (Evan Jenkins). Let me give you the information they reported (the average more or less of the 8 districts combined) and then I'll get into what I could find by scrounging around their site about the individual districts.

Among likely voters in the 8 districts, Democrats lead 47-43%. The two italicized incumbents are not running for reelection. The pollster reminds us that in all 8 districts Republican candidates won-- routinely-- by double digit margins in recent cycles. Findings:

• Where voters live has an impact on the margin of support. GOP House candidates are underperforming in Republican precincts relative to the Democrats’ performance in their base precincts. The Republican lead is between 4 and 13 percentage points in precincts that Romney/Trump carried, with the range depending on the size of the GOP presidential ticket’s margin. The Democratic lead is much stronger at 15 to 28 points in districts carried by Obama/Clinton.  In competitive districts – those where the average margin was less than 5 points for either party’s presidential ticket-- Democratic House candidates have a slim lead of 4 points. Also, the Democratic House candidate does better overall in precincts where Trump did worse than Romney even after controlling for the precinct’s partisan lean.
• Race, education and gender define key voting groups. Republicans’ core voting bloc is comprised of white men without a college degree, while Democrats can count on strong support from white female college graduates as a well as women of color regardless of educational attainment. White women without a degree and white male college graduates are more competitive groups, as are, to a lesser degree, men of color. White men without a degree who are registered Democrats and women of color who are registered Republicans are the most likely to cross party lines in their 2018 House vote.
• Partisan differences in election interest. High interest is more prevalent among voters supporting the Democratic candidates (62%) than it is among those supporting the Republicans (54%) in these eight races. The highest levels of interest come from college educated white men (75%) and women (72%) who are supporting a Democratic House candidate.
• Strongly held opinions of Trump lean negative. While voter opinion of Trump is evenly divided at 49% approve and 48% disapprove, there is a negative gap when looking only at strongly held opinions-- 33% strongly approve and 40% strongly disapprove in these eight districts.

Nw let's look at the district by district information I was able to cobble together within a reasonable time-frame relative to the above information.

• NJ-03- Trump's approval is 46% (33% strongly) and his disapproval is 49% (41% strongly). 48% of NJ-03 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 43% say they support him.

• PA-17- Trump's approval is 44% (28% strongly) and his disapproval is 51% (43% strongly). 49% of PA-17 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 46% say they support him.

• CA-48- Trump's approval is 46% (32% strongly) and his disapproval is 49% (39% strongly). 48% of CA-48 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 45% say they support him.

• NJ-11- Trump's approval is 47% (31% strongly) and his disapproval is 49% (43% strongly). 43% of NJ-11 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 49% say they support him.

• VA-10- Trump's approval is 42% (24% strongly) and his disapproval is 53% (47% strongly). 39% of VA-10 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 45% say they support him.

• PA-01- Trump's approval is 47% (31% strongly) and his disapproval is 49% (43% strongly). 49% of PA-01 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 44% say they support him.

• WV-03- Trump's approval is 66% (49% strongly) and his disapproval is 30% (23% strongly). 29% of WV-03 voters say they oppose Trump on "most issues" and 65% say they support him.

Wondering what this translates to nationally? It's impossible to be precise but it's a lot more than the 23 seats the Democrats need for a House Majority. In fact, it's more like something between two or three times more. There are always special circumstances in every race. In WV-03, as you can see, Trump has very high approvals. The PVI there is red, red, red-- R+23-- and Trump slaughtered Hillary, 72.5% to 22.5%. But you know who else slaughtered Hillary there? Bernie. And the colorful Democratic candidate in the district, state Senator Richard Ojeda, supported Bernie in the primary and Trump in the general-- just like so many WV-03 voters did. He's also created a unique brand for himself. That's likely to be the reddest district in the country won by a Democrat, but it's proof that if the DCCC keeps out of primaries, anything can happen.

And today's last poll-- this one from CNN-- was more bad news for Trumpanzee and his GOPzee. Over the last month, Señor T’s approval rating has dropped six points 36% from 42%. His disapproval is now 58%. And for Republicans running in the midterms, the worst part of this is that Trump's troubles are coming from... independent voters. "Among independents, the drop has been sharper, from 47% approval last month to 31% now. That's 4 points below his previous 2018 low of 35% approval among political independents in CNN polling, and 1 point below his previous all-time low among independents in CNN polling, reached in November 2017."sn't around messing up races and thwarting the wave, virtually anything can happen.

Another Candidate Announcement-- Andy Kim vs Tom MacArthur In New Jersey

Yesterday Randy Bryce, the woke iron worker, union and veterans activist, former Bernie delegate (and Hillary elector) announced his candidacy for the seat Paul Ryan holds in southeast Wisconsin. We dedicated the whole day to it; it’s that important. We were unable to comment on two other new candidates though-- one, literally the worst possible Nebraska “Democrat” you could ever conjure up and the other, a great first time candidate is New Jersey. The first is an old reject, conservative former Republican legislator, Brad Ashford, who joined the Blue Dogs, served one term in Congress, supported the GOP agenda-- he was even worse than Kyrsten Sinema-- and then lost his reelection when progressives refused to turn out for him at the polls. Ashford is the only member of Congress I’ve ever referred to as a “piece of shit.” He voted more frequently against progressive goals in the House than any other Democrat, if you want to call him a Democrat. The DCCC, which does want to call him a Democrat, just could not wait to try to get him back into Congress. He's exactly what they want in a candidate. I don’t know anything about the other Democrat in the race, Kara Eastman, but she couldn’t possibly be as bad as Ashford. The Omaha World-Herald pointed out that Ashford was “one of the House members most likely to cross the aisle on major votes [which] bolstered his credentials as a moderate but routinely prompted sharply worded denunciations from rank-and-file Nebraska Democrats on social media.” They got two things wrong: 1- he was the member most likely to cross the aisle and 2- that bolstered his credentials as a conservative, not as a moderate.

The other race that was announced Monday, the one we’re more interested in, is for the South Jersey seat occupied by one of the devious architects of TrumpCare 2.0, reactionary multimillionaire Tom MacArthur. The Democrat running is Andy Kim, a former Obama White House national security official who coordinated the fight against ISIS inside the National Security Council, after working at the Pentagon, the State Department and in Afghanistan as a strategic adviser to General David Petraeus. Andy was a Rhodes Scholar and received a Doctorate in International Relations from Oxford after going to the University of Chicago. Andy, his wife, Kammy Lai and their 21 month old son, Austin, live in Marlton, just down the road from the school where Andy attended kindergarten.

In a statement, he told NJ-03 voters that he’s been traveling around the 2 counties-- Ocean and Burlington-- that make up the divergent district and speaking with people from the suburbs Northeast of Philly, through Shamong, Lacey and Stafford townships and up to Toms River and Brick, and that he sees “a groundswell of energy I’ve never seen before. People want change. They want leaders to take the time to listen, and build a system that puts people first. People in the Jersey Third have told me that they are scared about their futures. They worry about getting good paying jobs, having affordable healthcare, and ensuring their family’s safety.” He continued that he’s “running for Congress because we can no longer take democracy for granted, the people's voice needs to be heard. I am stepping up because no one can assume that someone else will fight on our behalf. I have spent my life serving my country. I will be honored to serve as the next Congressman from the Jersey Third.”

Last month, I watched Representative Tom MacArthur rush a vote on a dire healthcare bill without letting the American people understand the consequences. Under Trumpcare, tens of thousands of people in our congressional district will lose their healthcare.

Nobody voted to send a representative to Congress to gut healthcare. I’m running for Congress to work on solutions, and fix problems, not on gutting healthcare to win a political fight.

I grew up in South Jersey. It’s where I hit my first home run, earned my first paycheck, and received an incredible public education that opened up a world of opportunity.

My wife, Kammy, and I have a 21-month-old boy and another baby on the way. As parents, we have to think not only about our future, but the future of our children, and the world they are going to live in, even beyond our own lifetimes.

I never thought I would run for Congress. I am doing this because I believe it is the right thing to do. I believe we need a new generation of leaders in Congress that are focused on representing the people and finding solutions. We need leaders who want to serve the people, represent their neighbors, and work together to build a stronger nation.

This morning I asked Andy Kim how he feels about some of the legislation we’re following, especially Ted Lieu’s infrastructure bill and John Conyers’ Medicare-for All bill. He hadn’t read either specific bill yet, but he was very supportive of each. "People in South Jersey and across this country,” he said, “want real solutions. They want our government to invest in the big ideas that will help re-energize our communities and give people the stability and hope they deserve. This means we need health care for everyone no matter if they are rich or poor because health care is a right. That must be a top priority because tens of millions of Americans without insurance is a disaster. Infrastructure is another place where we need bold solutions. We need to think big because this can't be done incrementally and needs vision, big ideas, and strong leadership to make the right investments in our future. Not only would this help create jobs, it is absolutely necessary to reinvigorate and revitalize our nation for decades to come."

The News For Republicans In New Jersey Could Hardly Be Worse

The recent Bedminster fundraiser, headlined by Señor Trumpanzee and Governor Chris Christie, for embattled Republican Congressman Tom MacArthur, showed how aware Republicans are of the toxicity of Trump and of the GOP agenda. There are no photos of MacArthur and his two party leaders, Señor T and Governor Lard Ass. The press were prevented from getting anywhere near the event and photos were strictly prohibited. What are they hiding? Who are they hiding from?

In New Jersey, at least, the stealth is too little too late. A newly released Quinnipiac poll of the state’s voters carries catastrophic predictions for the Republican Party in the Garden State. A fairly unattractive Democratic hack candidate, Wall Streeter Phil Murphy “buries” the GOP candidate, Christie’s Lt. Governor Kim Guadagno. Buries? Sure— 55% to 26%. “The blue wave,” explains Quinnipiac, “sweeps across the ballot as New Jersey voters say 57 - 29 percent that they want Democrats rather than Republicans to control the State Legislature… [I]f New Jersey is a weather vane, the wind is blowing in the Democrats' direction."

"Hobbled by eight years in a little noticed job and her ties to a remarkably unpopular governor, Lt. Gov. Guadagno is little-known and little-liked," Carroll added. "Half the state doesn't know enough about her to judge her as a candidate.

"The last New Jersey governor from Goldman Sachs, Jon Corzine, failed to win a second term, but only one-third of voters hold Murphy's Wall Street career against him. Guadagno's experience as lieutenant governor seems to be hurting her more."

Murphy gets a 33 - 18 percent favorability rating from New Jersey voters, while 47 percent haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion of him. Guadagno gets a negative 20 - 28 percent favorability, with 50 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Murphy's 23 years at Goldman Sachs leaves 33 percent of voters with a negative impact on their opinion of him, with 7 percent saying it has a positive impact and 56 percent who say it has no impact on their opinion.

Guadagno's service as Gov. Christopher Christie's Lieutenant Governor leaves 54 percent of voters with a negative impact on their opinion of her; 9 percent of voters with a positive impact and 35 percent who say it has no impact on their opinion of her. Gov. Christie, President Trump Approval Ratings.

Christie makes history again as New Jersey voters disapprove 81 - 15 percent of the job he is doing, the worst approval rating for any governor in any state surveyed by Quinnipiac University in more than 20 years. Even Republicans disapprove 58 - 31 percent.

President Donald Trump also is at a historic low, as Garden State voters disapprove 66 - 28 percent of the job he is doing.

No wonder MacArthur insisted that no pictures of himself and Trump or himself and Christie— let alone himself and both of them— be allowed. He was happy to take the $800,000 Trump raised for him from about 100 fat cats, but his upcoming contest with Andy Kim is going to be difficult enough— with Kim tarring him as one of the principal authors of TrumpCare— without connecting him viscerally to the detested Republican president and the even more detested Republican governor. Only 19% Boo New Jersey voters approve of TrumpCare. 69% disapprove— including 67% bow independents. The closer Kim’s campaign can tie MacArthur to TrumpCare, Trump and Christie, the easier it will be for him to win in 2018. Photos from begone days, like the one below, won't help MacArthur.

Congressional Republicans Are Starting To Brace For The 2018 Anti-Trump Wave

Remember how well Trump's coattails worked out for Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire?

We still have a year and a half before the 2018 midterm election day and I feel confident we'll be seeing a LOT more stories like the one Politico's Jake Sherman wrote to start this week off: GOP growing worried they’ll lose House.

Republicans are growing increasingly worried that they will lose the House of Representatives. The pervasive pessimism comes as there continues to be a dearth of legislative victories, and a toxic political environment that appears to be worsening. Of course, the midterm elections are nearly a year and a half away. But more than a dozen Republicans we’ve spoken to in the last few weeks say the prospect for political and legislative wins big and small is dimming. And as much as President Donald Trump has worked to woo over fellow Republicans with dinners at the White House and regular meetings with GOP leadership, it hasn’t had much of an impact on the overall state of play.

The rank and file has been frustrated with the House committees, which have not produced a drumbeat of legislation to tout as victories. And the party is deeply split on health-care reform, a tax overhaul and infrastructure spending. Passing a budget to set the groundwork for tax reform is still seen as far off. And the congressional schedule doesn’t leave a lot of time to kick things into high gear. The House is in session for 13 more days and the Senate is in session for 14 more days before the July 4 recess. Not to mention, there’s serious concern in the GOP that there could be more revelations about President Donald Trump, and Robert Mueller’s investigation still remains the wild card. Attorney General Jeff Sessions testifying Tuesday before the Senate Intel Committee is expected to just add more drama to distract from the GOP agenda into the mix.

WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? Republicans will be less willing to take risks as they shift into political survival mode.

Different Republicans in vulnerable seats are navigating these treacherous waters in different ways. Carlos Curbelo, for example, in a South Florida swing district Hillary won handily, 56.7-40.6%, is doing whatever he can to separate himself from Trump in ways that will appeal to his constituents-- like on Climate Change, which is already manifesting itself in his district with rising oceans and regular street flooding.

New Jersey plutocrat Tom MacArthur is taking the opposite tact. He's in a swingy South Jersey district that voted 51.8-47.2% for Obama in 2012 but flipped to Trump last year 51.4% to 45.2%. MacArthur joined the mainstream conservative grouping, the Tuesday Group, but stabbed them in the back, making a deal with Mark Meadows of the hard right Freedom Caucus to wreck Medicaid and pass TrumpCare in the House. He was kicked out of the Tuesday Group and has attached himself to Trump. On Sunday afternoon Trump headlined a fat cat fundraiser for MacArthur at his sleazy Bedminster Golf Course (in Leonard Lance's 7th district; Lance, who voted for TrumpCare in committee, felt the pressure in the district and then flip-flopped on the final vote, infuriating Trump, was not invited to the event). Chris Christie was there but the press wasn't allowed to hear Trump and MacArthur address a crowd of about 100 wealthy right-wing check writers. The invitation said that the event-- Trump's first for a member of Congress since Putin installed him in the White House-- was sponsored by MacArthur Victory, the NRCC, TMAC PAC, and the New Jersey Republican State Committee. MacArthur is a notorious self-funder, buying his first race (2014) with a 5 million dollar check but taking so much in special interest bribes-- nearly $2 million-- as a freshman that he only had to write himself a $200,000 check for his 2016 campaign.

Anyway, all across the country Republican incumbents in swing districts are going to have to do the calculus and decide if they're going to run from Trump or embrace him. So far many have warily tried to stick with him despite all the scandal and controversy. California congressmembers on shaky political ground-- like Darrell Issa, Mimi Walters, Dana Rohrabacher, Steve Knight, Devin Nunes and Duncan Hunter-- have made the bet the the DCCC is too lame to field effective campaigns against them and they have tied their political futures to Trump. Zombie-like they seem to expect him to suddenly change his ways and turn the disastrous approval numbers-- not just for himself, but for that party-- around.

Katie Hill is the Santa Clarita Valley progressive who we're hoping replaces Trump rubber stamp Steve Knight in CA-25. This morning, in a wide ranging discussion of the issues facing her neighbors in L.A. and Ventura counties she mentioned that "Government health care spending is vital to the well being our community and it’s also a jobs issue. Steve Knight’s yes vote on Trumpcare was an irreverent vote to our very purple, working class district. Instead of stripping 77,000 of our neighbors of their health care, we need to be bringing more people into the health care system by strengthening the ACA and eventually moving towards a single payer system. That way people can get the care they need and those working in health related professions, like my mom who is a nurse, can make a decent living working in a compassionate profession. If we look at Knight’s voting record, he's voting 100% in favor of Trump’s legislative agenda... To me, this is a massive failure of the representative government we’ve been promised. We have to put the concerns of our neighbors before scoring political points with party leaders. Most importantly, we need representatives willing to buck partisan party politics when it compromises the well being of our community."

Is Tom MacArthur's Self-Financed Political Career Crumbling Before Our Eyes?

The biggest group of mainstream conservatives in the House, the Tuesday Group felt betrayed by one of its leaders, New Jersey Rep. Tom MacArthur, who worked with radical right extremist Mark Meadows of the Freedom Caucus to help pass TrumpCare. Officially, on Tuesday he resigned from the Tuesday Group. But 2 Republican staffers have told me, he was pushed out of the group by angry members who feel that his TrumpCare betrayal will cost dozens of Republicans their seats in the 2018 midterms. "That bill is going to cost [Leonard] Lance and [Mike] Coffman their seats... that's what [MacArthur] accomplished. He's a pariah around here now."

Officially, the DCCC has included NJ-03 on their list of targeted districts but they haven't recruited a candidate yet and I was told that the district isn't a priority because Trump beat Hillary there 51.4% to 45.2%-- more typical backward-looking DCCC "strategy." (Obama beat Romney there 51.8% to 47.2% and beat McCain by about the same margin.) NJ-03 is a South Jersey swing district. Most of the voters live in Burlington County, primarily in the suburbs northeast of Philly, like Mount Laurel, Cinnaminson and Willingboro, although the district's biggest city is Tom's River in Ocean County on the other side of the Pine Barrens.

The DCCC has insisted on running Republican-lite candidates and the last Democratic congressman to represent the area was Blue Dog John Adler who won the seat in 2008, running as a normal Democrat-- and with a bigger archest than any other Democratic non-incumbent in the country. But he voted with the Republicans so frequently that when the 2010 midterms rolled around his 52-48% win turned into a 53-47% loss as Democratic voters refused to even bother turning out for the DCCC's idea of a candidate (not their own). And this despite Adler spending $3,285,638 to Republican Jon Runyan's $1,518,073.

In 2012 the DCCC ran Adler's widow, who lost by 10 points and 2 years later they ran another conservative-leaning Dem, Aimee Belgard, who did even worse (for what was then an open seat) against rich carpetbagger MacArthur. At that point the DCCC gave up on the district. The "Democrat" who took MacArthur on in 2016, Frederick Lavergne, billed himself as a Democrat-Republican, wasn't supported by the DCCC and reported raising only $600 and spending nothing. MacArthur spent $1,910,489.

But there's some good news on the horizon. Progressive Andy Kim, a Rhodes Scolar who worked in the Obama White House, is strongly considering running in 2018. The founder and Executive Director of RISE Stronger, a grassroots group whose mission is "to build a dynamic, strategic movement of politically engaged communities that demand a responsible and accountable government which serves the interests of the people." Their story:

In the days following the 2016 presidential election, Andy Kim, a former White House Director for Iraq at the National Security Council, gathered several hundred people to a meeting in Washington, D.C. to lay out a vision for a new wave of citizen engagement in this uncertain and tumultuous political landscape in America. That meeting launched RISE Stronger, which has since grown to become a citizen watchdog organization of nearly 30,000 members across the country who are ready to ensure elected officials and government are both responsible and accountable to the people.

In that first meeting, people said they felt paralyzed-- unable to think about how to move beyond the uncertainty, disappointment, and fear. Participants struggled to think of actions that regular citizens could take beyond voting, calling their representative, and donating money to a cause. Dissatisfied with these limited options, RISE Stronger emerged to reinvigorate what it means to be a citizen and to empower Americans across the country to find new ways to engage in the American democracy.

The goal of RISE Stronger is simple: capture the political energy of Americans, sustain it, and focus it towards action that will ensure that the government and its leaders are accountable to its citizens, transparent in their actions and policies, and guided solely by the interests and values of the American people.

Keeping grassroots activism at the heart of its work, RISE Stronger draws from a vast network of former White House and government officials and other policy experts to inform and augment the work of its members throughout the country. A network of local and state chapters, and an active online hub will serve as an incubator to new ideas and initiatives that propel forward the work of members and increase the engagement of Americans.

RISE Stronger is made up of passionate people from all walks of life who are committed to protecting and advancing freedom, equality, and justice, and ensuring a transparent, responsible and accountable government for all.

"MacArthur has become Trump's biggest supporter in New Jersey," wrote Kim, "and is the main author and lead negotiator for TrumpCare 2.0 that jeopardizes care for people with pre-existing conditions while blatantly protecting the health care plans of Congress from these changes."

The Moderate Tag Is A Farce-- Meet New Jersey Congressman Tom MacArthur

-by Joshua Henne

The last time New Jersey voters sent a Republican to the U.S. Senate, Nixon was in the White House and The Godfather was in movie theaters. For a short while, at least on paper, Congressman Tom MacArthur seemed an attractive candidate to try and break this 45-year streak.

In 2014, the former insurance executive and mayor of Randolph, moved from Morris County down to South Jersey, plopped down $5 million of his own cash and garnered an open House seat. With an amiable personality and political ties throughout the state, MacArthur proved unafraid to dig deep into his piggy bank. With a seeming-centrist streak, he was sitting pretty and setting a nice table for a statewide run.

However, over the span of the past two months, MacArthur effectively torpedoed any shot for higher office with three sweeping, out-of-the-mainstream moves. First, he backed Trump’s racist travel ban. Then, he co-sponsored legislation bestowing other states’ residents the right to conceal and carry weapons here in New Jersey. And now he’s the lone Jersey representative supporting TrumpCare, which is mind-boggling on several levels.

In January, MacArthur was one of only nine Republicans nationwide to vote against a budget resolution aimed at greasing the Affordable Care Act’s repeal. New Jersey congressmen Rodney Frelinghuysen, Leonard Lance, Frank LoBiondo and Chris Smith all voted for it. But, sensing grave harm to constituents, these representatives simply couldn’t bring themselves to support TrumpCare, which started badly and just got worse. Passage would gut Medicaid and strip insurance from 24 million Americans-- including 500,000 New Jerseyans. LoBiondo said, “It’s not as good as or better than what we currently have.” Frelinghuysen called TrumpCare “unacceptable, as it would place significant new costs and barriers to care.”

Democratic Congressman Frank Pallone said it best: “The degree of hypocrisy throughout this process has been matched only by the recklessness shown by President Trump and Republican leaders in nearly destroying the American healthcare system overnight.” At least, with the exception of MacArthur, New Jersey’s congressional delegation didn’t support such a catastrophic policy push.

According to NJ Policy Perspective’s analysis of Census data and Medicaid statistics, TrumpCare would cause a 74 percent increase of uninsured in our five Republican congressional districts alone by 2020. Democratic Districts would see a 58% increase in the number of uninsured. The percentage is lower because Dem areas tend to be populated more by those living below the poverty line and who already had Medicaid coverage. But, still that’s over 340,000 people in those seven Democratic congressional districts who would lose insurance.

It’s worth noting that, as a percentage, MacArthur’s constituents suffer the most-- with 32,809 projected to lose insurance. That’s an eye-popping 94 percent uninsured spike. And this calculation came before amendments hardened the bill by cutting required benefits. Nonetheless, with such damning information causing congressional colleagues to come to their senses, MacArthur head-scratchingly switched support to TrumpCare.

And MacArthur’s still incredulously defending his actions. Even a few days after it failed, he was still rationalizing and claiming they “made dramatic improvements to the bill.” This is beyond laughable. Even worse is MacArthur saying he disagreed with CBO saying it would take away healthcare. This is gross incompetence and a stubbornness adherence to pushing alternate facts. Asking those who are scared and who benefit from the Affordable Care Act to “get past all the noise”… well, its not noise. It's the fact that folks are scared they’ll be stripped of healthcare.

With TrumpCare talk again bubbling up, MacArthur this week said, “There’s a lot of confusion, there’s a lot of misinformation, and I’m trying to be the person who makes the bill better. If that makes me more vulnerable then so be it. I didn’t come here just to decorate a chair.” Trust me, no one is mistaking MacArthur’s dangerous actions as decorative.

This comes on the heels of his embracing bigotry by backing Trump’s racist travel ban. MacArthur didn’t merely give vague lip-service about dangerous times demanding vigilance, but rather “applauded him for acting.” This isn’t just ignorant-- as the measure makes America markedly less secure. It’s also immoral. Trump’s Muslim prohibition splits families and stops children from life-saving surgeries. History will view it as dark a stain on America’s story as Jim Crow and Japanese internment camps. MacArthur claims it wouldn’t ban Muslims. But everyone knows full-well its intention, including the courts striking it down.

Turning away immigrants based on faith is decidedly un-American. It undermines our values. Even Dick Cheney said, "This whole notion that somehow we can just say no more Muslims, just ban a whole religion, goes against everything we stand for and believe in." Last summer, addressing New Jersey's delegation at the Republican National Convention, MacArthur declared, "Everybody for the most part is looking for the same things. People are just trying to better their lives. They're just trying to lift their families up. They're trying to get further than they started."

Apparently, this was hollow lip service, as Trump’s Muslim Ban smacks the very opposite of that lofty rhetoric.

A Farleigh Dickinson poll shows 53 perent of New Jerseyans believing Trump's foreign policy inexperience leaves America more vulnerable to those who wish to do us harm. Our representatives would be wise to listen to their constituents. In December, MacArthur heartwarmingly cut red tape so a soldier could formally adopt his gravely ill step-son, making the boy's Christmas wish come true. I only wish MacArthur showed the same compassion for immigrant families split apart and refugee children needing life-saving treatment. If only he'd look out for all military families by opposing measures making soldiers less safe.

As if carrying Trump’s water wasn’t enough, MacArthur is also doing the NRA’s bidding. He sponsored gun lobby legislation forcing New Jersey into recognizing concealed carry permits from states with significantly shoddier safety standards. Garden State gun-related deaths are half the national average, largely due to strict laws governing concealed weapons. But if MacArthur’s measure passes, even people mentally ill or on no-fly-lists would be allowed.

Perhaps it isn’t shocking that the moderate tag was a farce and MacArthur has thrown in with extremist ilk. Last summer, nearly all mainstream Republicans-- and the entire congressional delegation-- avoided Trump’s Cleveland Coronation like the plague. So, MacArthur being the only Garden State congressman to attend the RNC Convention should have been a hint. Today, it must be lonely out on that ledge-- not just outside New Jersey’s mainstream, but the state GOP’s as well.

The kindest thing to say about MacArthur’s constituent relations is they aren’t up to snuff. In person and online, his staff mocks, dismisses and even spews curses and vulgarities at those who dissent or disagree on policy. Like their boss, MacArthur personnel push “paid protester” fake news about “preventing local constituents from interacting with their congressman.” It’s all pretty gross.

After claiming “events are being hijacked by groups outside-the-district” MacArthur eventually relented and held a (lame) town hall. New Jersey’s 3rd District has some 732,000 people spread out among 53 communities across Ocean and Burlington Counties. After several weeks of constituents clamoring, MacArthur announced a town hall the following Monday via a Friday dump. It was held in Waretown-- a rural Pinelands town of less than 1,500-- far from public transportation and smack-dab in the district’s Southeastern-most portion, actually closer to many Smith and LoBiondo voters. Moreover, MacArthur’s 5:30 pm first-come, first-serve policy allowed him to stack the room with supporters. The hour-plus drive during the heart of rush-hour made it virtually impossible for Philadelphia suburb residents to attend. MacArthur knew full-well the wave of town-hall requests... that’s why he buckled after a month of ignoring. So, why cap 250 attendees at an out-of-the way, difficult-to-get-to location, while highlighting tight security, no signs and all bags checked? MacArthur’s public forum was a hair better than the tele-town halls he’d been hiding behind. But not by much.

Moreover, the way he’s brushed off folks’ legitimate fears and concerns doesn’t bode well for any ability to interact with real people outside his bubble.

MacArthur’s trifecta of malfeasance and malice-- health care, guns and racism-- takes a special level of incompetence. Marry these bad decisions with dreadful constituent outreach, poor communication and even worse ability to navigate political tea leaves, and MacArthur proved he isn’t ready for prime-time. In short order, his series of unforced errors didn’t solely provide a disservice to the state. It quickly proved any higher office attempt would be a moribund endeavor.

Joshua Henne, a Jersey-based Democratic strategist can be found on Twitter at @JoshuaHenne.

New Jersey Town Halls

Republican Christopher Smith was elected to Congress 37 years ago, in 1980, age 27. He had been a Democrat but switched parties in 2 years earlier and ran against crooked Democrat, Frank Thompson, who had been convicted of taking bribes in the Abscam scandal. The Democrats have coveted taking the district back ever since-- but have been highly unsuccessful in ever getting anywhere near doing so. His reelection bids have attracted over 60% since 1984. Last November, he beat Democrat Lorna Phillipson 206,137 (63.7%) to 108,373 (33.5%), rolling up large margins in all 3 counties that make up the districts-- Monmouth, Ocean and Mercer. He only spent $661,899 on his campaign.

Smith's last public town hall with his constituents was in 1992-- that's a quarter-century ago. When a friend of mine in Trenton Gardens decided to organize an impromptu town hall in front of Smith's house he had to call it off because Smith lives too far from the district-- in Herndon, Virginia. No, really, his family is so-much part of Virginia that Smith was able to request and receive in-state tuition privileges, saving the family $20,000 per year. In 2006 he spent a total of exactly 7 days in New Jersey. He spends more time traveling abroad than he does in New Jersey.

Fact is, the Democrats have lusted after all 3 Republican-held districts in South Jersey for some time. (They hold the 1st district in the Philly 'burbs, but with an extremely corrupt, right-of-center fake-Dem, Donald Norcross, most Democrats would rather not claim political kinship to. The 2nd district (PVI is D+1) is held by Frank LoBiondo, the 3rd (R+1) is held by Tom MacArthur. Neither of them are bothering with town hall constituent meetings either. Yesterday there was a Citizens Townhall for MacArthur at the DeMasi School in Marlton and one for Smith at the Monmouth County Library in Manalapan. Neither MacArthur nor Smith showed up. Saturday there's a demonstration planned for LoBiondo at his district office in relatively remote Mays Landing (population 2,135) at noon. Obama won LoBiondo's and MacArthur's districts both times he ran and lost Smith's district both times. The DCCC has been willing to recruit and finance candidates-- usually terrible ones-- against LoBiondo and MacArthur in the past... but that may not be as automatic in 2018. Trump won all 3 Republican-held South Jersey districts in November.

• NJ-02- 50.6% to 46.0%, 5 points better than Romney had done
• NJ-03- 51.4% to 45.2%, 4 points better than Romney
• NJ-04- 55.8% to 41.0%, a point and a half better than Romney

The DCCC is looking north towards Leonard Lance's 7th district and perhaps even Rodney Frelinghuysen's 11th district instead, districts they never seriously consider. Hillary beat Trump in the 7th CD-- 48.6% to 47.5%-- and almost tied him in the 11th-- 48.8% to 47.9%. Frightened, Lance scheduled 2 town halls this week.

MacArthur’s staff is, repeating alt-fact GOP talking points that paid, out-of-district protesters are the only ones in Burlington and Ocean counties who have a problem with MacArthur carrying Trump’s water on such things as the racist travel ban. Not only is that ridiculous, it's also utterly offensive to the people he purports to represent. All three are cowering in Trump’s corner and steadfastly refusing to do their jobs and absolutely refuse to stand and listen to the fears and concerns of their constituents.

Leonard Lance's town last night at Raritan Valley Community College had the biggest turnout of any public meeting of his political career and was especially interesting because he seemed to have been figuring out in real time that by adopting progressive agenda items he didn't get boo-ed; he got cheered. Watch how he handles the Obamacare replacement question right in the beginning of the clip. He also told the large crowd that he "urges" Trump to release his tax returns.

Democrats Overcome GOP Opposition To Medical Marijuana In Veterans Hospitals

The new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll dug into how independent voters view the two parties. It's just a snapshot in time but 23% of independent voters saw the Democratic Party positively and 37% saw them negatively. Pretty horrible. But it was far worse for the Republicans. Only 8% of independent voters have a positive view of the GOP, while a staggering 52% see the Republicans negatively. Knee-jerk, systemic Republican congressional obstructionism helps explain the numbers.

Voters see the inability of the Republicans to deal with even things as basic as voting on a Supreme Court vacancy or protecting the citizenry from the spread of the Zika virus in a very negative way. If Americans-- or even just independents-- voted on those feelings, there would be just a small handful of Republicans left in Congress.

It isn't even just on the big matters of state where the GOP seems deranged and filled with destructive hatred. They can be counted on to be wrong on almost everything. When I was a teenager I used to smoke pot. It's what teenagers were doing in the 1960s. By the 70s, I had stopped completely. I had zero interest in marijuana for 4 decades until I started feeling the effects of chemotherapy. I still didn't want to use marijuana... until I was persuaded it would help me to survive; and it did. That was over a year ago. I have plenty of the stuff left but now that I'm well, I have no use for it and no interest in it. It saved my life though, so... I respect it. It's lucky for me that I live in California, where medical marijuana is legal.

Last Thursday, Congress moved towards making medical marijuana legal everywhere. The House voted 233-189 by an amendment by Oregon's Earl Blumenauer to the Military Construction and Veterans Affairs Appropriations Act that will "prohibit use of funds to implement, administer, or enforce any Veterans Health Administration Directive relating to the prohibition on VA providers from completing forms seeking recommendations on opinions regarding a veteran's participation in a state marijuana program." It was widely seen among Members of Congress for what it is: a step towards medical marijuana legalization.

Only 5 Democrats, led by reactionary anti-pot psychopaths Dan Lipinksi (IL) and Henry Cuellar (TX)-- 2 Blue Dog throw-backs-- opposed it. Even anti-marijuana crusader Debbie Wasserman Schultz voted yes! And so did 57 Republicans! Of course-- and this helps explain why independents have such negative feelings about the Republican Party-- 184 Republicans voted NO! The Senate passed a companion amendment with several senators from both parties noting that it would help veterans avoid using dangerous and addictive opiates. Tuesday, California Republican Dana Rohrabacher, who has been a major advocate for legalization in Congress, told marijuana activists he has been using a marijuana-rub to relieve the pain of arthritis.

Among the Republicans voting against the amendment was the ridiculously placed chairman of the House Science Committee, Lamar Smith of Texas-- Austin no less!-- who's living (and legislating) in a different era. No medical marijuana relief for veterans living in Austin, San Antonio, New Braunfels, San Marcos or the Texas Hill country! This morning we contacted a military veteran and winner of the TX-21 Democratic congressional primary, Tom Wakely, who had a very different perspective than Lamar Smith's. "It seems par for the course that Congressman Smith, who refused to provide a hearing on Ron Paul and Barney Frank's resolution to end the federal prohibition of marijuana, would try to make it more difficult for veterans to get access to legal medication in their home state. The constituents of our district favor medical marijuana. San Antonio is a military town and I can guarantee the veterans of this district are just as confused as I am on why Republicans seemingly favor our 10th Amendment except in the case of a proven, harmless drug. I stand with the majority of House Democrats and the few Republicans who recognized this was a common sense vote. Personally, I'd like us to go further and put an end to the federal prohibition of marijuana, allowing the drug be turned over to the states for regulation. By definition that's supposed to be the conservative viewpoint. Then again, it's becoming harder and harder to define the platform of the modern Republican party."

Mario Diaz Balart joined the reactionary Republicans voting against the amendment, the only South Florida congressman to do so. Every Florida Democrat plus Florida Republicans Carlos Curbelo, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, and Tom Rooney voted in favor of the amendment but, for some reason, Diaz-Balart decided that veterans in Miami-Dade, Collier and Hendry counties, whose doctors want to prescribe marijuana for pain, sleep or to help with appetite will just have to do without. This morning we contacted the progressive Democratic physician running for the seat Diaz-Balart is sitting in, Alina Valdes, who has a very different perspective than Diaz-Balart, one based on science and humanity. "I have been practicing medicine for over 30 years," she told us, "and that time has been spent in physician shortage areas where people feel disenfranchised because they do not have the resources to make their voices heard especially after the Citizen's United and Corporate Personhood decisions. Many have given up on the political system which does not care about them and their needs. This vote on the use of marijuana to relieve pain and suffering is wrong as many studies have shown the benefits to neurological and musculoskeletal conditions, which many of our vets suffer. To insist that they use traditional opioid BigPharma medications to relieve their symptoms is causing further suffering. Many patients have expressed the desire to be pain free without needing to feel like a zombie while also risking an unintended overdose due to tolerance that is known to develop with these narcotic medications. Many of them use street marijuana and risk arrest and imprisonment because it helps them feel both physically and therefore mentally better.  This is a natural weed with medicinal benefits and is available to many living in states that allow physicians to write these prescriptions. As a general internist, I took an oath to serve, heal, and relieve pain and suffering in so doing. I would personally have no problems prescribing medical marijuana under the appropriate circumstances. To continue to classify marijuana as a class I controlled substance in the same category as heroin and peyote makes no rational sense. It just feeds the inhumane thinking of profits over people in both the pharmaceutical and private prison industries. Our vets especially deserve better than this and it is time for Congress to educate themselves rather than allow their votes to be swayed by big corporate interests funding their re-election campaigns."

And then there was backward Republican multimillionaire and Chris Christie's puppet-congressman Tom MacArthur. He voted against the amendment too, even though every New Jersey Democrat plus New Jersey Republicans Frank LoBiondo and Scott Garrett voted to give the vets a break. MacArthur thinks he has the right to override physicians who want veterans in Burlington and Ocean coutnies to have the opportunity to use medical marijuana if it will help their conditions. This morning we contacted the progressive Democrat running against MacArthur, Jim Keady. "This issue shows a clear difference between myself and my GOP opponent. I believe that we need to make marijuana legal for both medicinal and recreational use at the federal level. We then can regulate it, tax it and use the revenues for tax relief or for a range of social programs," said Keady. "Specific to our Veterans, I was just listening to two Vets who were at my family's tavern the other night; both of them wanted to be able to use marijuana to deal with PTSD. They should be able to do this, legally, anywhere in the United States."

Isn't it time to retire these Republican wastes and replace them with more forward-thinking progressives? Please consider contributing to the grassroots congressional campaigns of Tom Wakely, Alina Valdes and Jim Keady, progressive Democrats in Texas, Florida and New Jersey.

Guest Post By Jim Keady-- Why I Cannot "Just Do It" On Nike And The TPP

One of the issues that has united people across the political spectrum in this campaign cycle is the fact that for the past three decades the United States has signed onto trade policies that have crushed middle class workers and only benefited the uber-wealthy and giant multinational corporations.

The most recent incarnation of these failed trade policies is the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

While I agree with President Obama on a range of key issues (increasing access to healthcare, fighting to reverse climate change, etc.) on this issue we differ. I am particularly troubled that he pushed for fast-track authority for this deal at Nike’s headquarters one year ago.

To understand why this particular move by the President troubled me, let me give you the quick history of my 16 years working on the Nike sweatshop issue in Southeast Asia.

1. In 1997 I was a graduate assistant soccer coach at St. John's University, studying Theology and coaching with the NCAA Division One defending National Champions.

2. I started writing a paper about Nike's labor practices in light of Catholic Social Teaching and found Nike to be in violation of everything we stood for at St. John's.

3. While I was in the midst of learning about Nike's sweatshop abuses, the St. John's University Athletic Department entered into negotiations with Nike for a flagship endorsement deal that would require all coaches and athletes to wear Nike products 24-7.

4. I took a stand and refused to wear Nike's products as part of the $3.5 million dollar endorsement deal.

5. I was given an ultimatum by my boss, “Wear Nike and drop this issue… or resign.”

6. I resigned in protest.

7. My resignation and lawsuit that I filed against St. John’s and Nike exploded in the media and I was considered an instant expert on the sweatshop issue. I began being invited to speak on college campuses. My critics told me I didn’t know what I was talking about.

8. I wanted to prove my critics wrong, so in the summer of 2000, I moved to Indonesia and lived in a factory workers’ slum trying to survive on a Nike sweatshop wage of $1.25 a day. I lost 25lbs in one month while sleeping on a cement floor in a rat and cockroach infested neighborhood.

9. I met the mostly young women workers who made the gear I wore for my entire life and I promised them that I would go home and advocate for them.

10. I have spent a good part of the past 16 years fighting for better wages and working conditions for Nike’s workers. (If you want to learn what I was up to, google “Jim Keady, Nike, and sweatshops.”)

Sometimes people ask, “Why have you focused so much energy on this issue?”



It is imperative that we expose what Nike is doing overseas for two reasons. First, their factory workers are human beings just like us and as such deserve our solidarity and support. Second, when companies like Nike engage in the “race to the bottom” on wages, working conditions and workers’ rights to organize overseas, it puts a downward pressure on wages, working conditions and workers’ rights to organize here in the United States. How can American workers be expected to compete with workers in developing countries where there are repressive governments who allow people to be paid poverty wages when the companies they are producing for (like Nike) are making billions in profits?

So, that's why I took issue with the President holding up Nike as a model of global trade and why I adamantly disagree with him on his belief that the TPP will be a benefit to workers here and abroad. Since the President used them as the example, let's continue to consider Nike as we examine some of the problems with this trade deal.



In Indonesia alone, Nike has 168,000 workers who are paid a paltry $212 a month. Nike has busted worker unions, refused to pay even the minimum wage, has verbally and physically threatened workers for exercising their fundamental right to freely associate, and they have cheated workers of millions of dollars in overtime pay. Along with the labor rights violations, Nike has also been dumping and burning scrap shoe rubber in Indonesian villages for 25 years – pumping toxins and carcinogens into the air, water, and soil.

In Malaysia, Nike has been found guilty of employing thousands of illegally trafficked workers. These workers had their passports confiscated to prevent them running away to get help or to find a better job. For years, Nike turned a blind eye on this issue until we brought the matter to prime-time TV and forced them to address it.

In Vietnam, the situation is even worse. This is important in the current political context because Vietnam is seen as the linchpin of the TPP deal and Nike is the largest private employer in Vietnam with 330,000 workers. Here, workers are paid $132 per month. Because of Nike’s poverty wage, many workers cannot afford their basic needs, most distressingly, childcare. They are forced to leave their babies and young children with grandparents in their home villages while they migrate to cities to work. If they are lucky, they see their children a few times a year. Along with poor wages, workers in Vietnam deal with verbal abuse, inhuman production quotas, and one worker reported that because of restrictions on the use of toilets at work, a co-worker wet her pants on the production line despite repeated requests to her supervisor for a bathroom break.

This is why Nike should not be held up by the President as a model for trade and why the TPP deal needs a lot of work if it is going to protect the basic rights of workers both internationally and in the United States.

With previous trade agreements, US Administrations have not promptly acted when trading partners do not live up to their promises on labor standards. Not only does this lead to violations of the rights of workers in those countries, it also creates the uneven playing field that leads to the loss of hundreds of thousands of good-paying American jobs.

What do we need to do?

We need to renegotiate all of our multi-lateral trade deals and demand strict protections for labor and the environment.

Second, we must establish legislation that will force the Administration's hand in enforcing these conditions on labor standards and protecting the environment. These cannot be “best efforts” initiatives. These need to be laid out as clear and measurable objectives; there must be monitoring mechanisms to ensure compliance; and there must be harsh penalties for violations.

One legislative initiative could create a legal requirement that companies operating overseas in a TPP country must pay no lower than that country's living wage and must observe the ILO's core labor standards regardless of whether that country has ratified them. In Vietnam for example, this would mean that Nike could not fire striking workers and their workers’ wages would increase by about 50%-- dramatically improving the lives of hundreds of thousands of working families. For those concerned about the impact of this on the cost of your Nike sneakers, it would add a whopping $2 to the price tag on your Jordans.

It is important to note that we have only thus far discussed the impacts of the TPP on wages and working conditions. Along with the TPP’s promotion of economic and labor injustices, this deal will also allow for a significant amount of national sovereignty to be lost. It will give foreign corporations the right to sue the United States government in ways that we have never seen to date. International corporate tribunals will supersede U.S. law and will undermine labor, environmental and health and safety protections in the pursuit of profits for foreign companies.

This is why it is imperative that the TPP be stopped and this is why it is imperative that the United States Congress take action and negotiate a trade deals that truly promote freedom, prosperity and justice for all and not just for the multinational corporations and their executive elites. It is time that the people, through their elected officials, had a voice in shaping the landscape of global trade. Anything short of this is un-American.

(Trung Doan, Director of VietLabor, the only independent labor organization in Vietnam, contributed to this piece)


Jim Keady is on Blue America's Bernie Congress Act Blue page. You can get to it-- and contribute to his grassroots efforts to oust billionaire Christie-crony Tom MacArthur-- by tapping on the thermometer below: