Did The Democrats Learn Anything From The Alex Sink Disaster In Florida?

Alex Sink may have been a mediocre candidate but Republican David Jolly wasn't any better. And Sink had the advantage of running in a blue-leaning district that Obama won against McCain in 2008 and against Romney in 2012… and that Bill Nelson won against Connie Mack in the 2012 Senate race. On top of that, Sink spent way more money-- $3,195,638 to his $1,616,137. Outside allies spent heavily on both sides-- the DCCC put in $2,234,959, the biggest single outside expenditure of the campaign, Pelosi's House Majority PAC put in another $988,769, and EMILY's List spent $177,869. The money did not go to an effective field operation but to broadcast TV and mailings that generate big kickbacks for favored insiders who became wealthier as Sink sunk beneath the waves.

Steve Israel and his thoroughly corrupted and entirely ineffective and mismanaged DCCC is genetically incapable of learning from it's mistakes, only repeating them endlessly. Nothing will change there until Israel is kicked out and new leadership takes over. But the DSCC, for all its flaws, is a much better organization and, in fact, is working hard to make sure the Republicans don't swamp their candidates with better field operations the way the GOP did to Sink in FL-13. This morning Derek Willis looked into this cycle's Democratic field operations for the NY Times. Fear, he asserts, is driving the DSCC to invest heavily in Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan and North Carolina.

[T]he spending trends are clear. The Democrats’ spending advantage is greatest in states where they’ve had time to organize and plan for competitive races, and they are using that edge to register new voters; publicize absentee and early voting options; and, of course, make sure supporters actually go to the polls on Election Day. The efforts extend to states where the Republicans more recently made Senate contests more competitive, like Michigan.

Democrats have invested several million dollars in both North Carolina and Colorado for this ground game. Republican spending in those states so far has tended to focus on broadcast advertisements and direct mail.

That edge extends to Alaska, where the Democratic incumbent Mark Begich faces Dan Sullivan. Combined, Democratic independent groups, party committees and Mr. Begich’s campaign have already spent nearly 10 times more than Republicans on wages and expenses for local staffers; get-out-the-vote efforts; and other field operations.

The state Democratic Party alone has spent at least $763,687 on voter turnout and staffing this year, which amounts to $1.45 for every citizen over 18 in the state. By comparison, the more than $1 million the Wake County Democratic Party has spent on voter turnout and staffing in North Carolina this year works out to 15 cents for every potential voter.

In Iowa, the state Democratic Party has spent more than $872,000 in ground operations, part of a substantial advantage that Democrats have over Republicans in that state. The party has paid the salaries of at least 148 people in the current election cycle, according to data through the end of August. The Republican Party of Iowa had 11 people on its federal campaign payroll in August.

...Outside groups working on behalf of Democratic candidates have extended the advantage. Super PACs, environmental organizations and abortion rights groups have spent more than $4.8 million on ground activity in Senate races in Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan and North Carolina. Republican-leaning groups have kicked in only $369,000.

The amount spent to help G.O.P. candidates doesn’t include field work by Americans for Prosperity and other political nonprofits that do not have to report their spending. Americans for Prosperity does report some of its broadcast advertisements, but Federal Election Commission rules do not require disclosure of ground operations or direct mail. Although much of its spending represents broadcast ads, it also has more than doubled its field staff compared with the 2010 elections. Even if it decided to spend several million dollars in a race, it could not coordinate its work with a party or campaign (the same rule applies to super PACs). A spokesman for Americans for Prosperity did not respond to a request for comment.

EMILY's List principals and revolving door DCCC employees were raking off big bucks from Alex Sink's campaign for themselves while GOP allies concentrated on a successful ground game. The DSCC has no intention of following Steve Israel's horribly run DCCC down that rabbit hole in November.

What Really Happened In The FL-13 Congressional Race-- Did The DCCC And EMILY's List Blow It For Alex Sink?

Steve Israel to 25 DCCC field organizers in Florida: "Get out of Dodge, STAT!"

I was surprised to wake up the morning after the FL-13 debacle and find a comment by an Alex Sink field volunteer on our election night coverage post. She started by asserting that the field director "was a pompous drunk, who held no-one anymore accountable than he did himself. They got hammered the night prior to the GOTV dry run." From her-- albeit narrow-- perspective this race was being lost on the ground. Higher ups in the Sink campaign, who are still interested in future employment, are talking about why she really lost, but strictly off-the-record. Predictably, the culprits are, once again, the usual suspects: the DCCC and EMILY's List. Both organizations wanted Sink to win but neither was remotely competent enough to bring that to fruition. Sink would have been better off if their money came with no strings attached and with a hands-off attitude. It didn't.

Since narrowly losing the Florida gubernatorial race, Sink had been talking with Florida political operatives about her options. Together, they mapped out data driven analytics for the Penellas county seat, in anticipation of the incumbent's... exit.

The model they created-- based on internal numbers, not belonging to the self-serving profit-driven Beltway firms or committees-- projected a win in even a terrible Democratic showing. It was based on expanding the "persuasion universe" to folks likely to vote more than 50% of the time. This is a major no-no to the DCCC and Emily's List because it means money will need to be spent in the field and not just on TV and mailing, from which their operatives personally profit.

So, Sink hired these Florida folks to do her field, however, per normal, the DCCC and Emily's List thought differently-- and insisted that it was their way or the highway. They "layered over Sink's" campaign a field operation that targeted a small universe, insisting it was a "persuasion year," not a "turnout year." This is code for minimal field, more fat TV contracts and more mail purchases, i.e., more money in the pockets of the DCCC and EMILY's List operatives.

On election night, given her too small early vote victory, the Florida team realized that Sink could not win. They knew that due to the Beltway hacks and incompetents not expanding the universe, this night would belong to a pathetic K Street lobbyist, that even the Republican Party had given up for dead two weeks earlier.

Quickly seeing this, Steve Israel texted the large contingent of DCCC operatives to get out, and apparently so did Emily's List leadership. Before Sink gave her televised concession, no one was seen from the DCCC or Emily's list.

The next thing the Florida operatives hear is that the DCCC is spreading rumors that the Florida field director was drunk, thus the reason for the loss. These Florida folks say this was blatantly untrue, and an excuse for their miserable campaign tactics and lax behavior when they all came from DC "to help" with GOTV.

A little post script: EMILY's List head Stephanie Schriock sent out a misleading donor plea yesterday trying to weedle more money-- for the company's inflated overhead-- from unsuspecting donors by blaming their defeat in Florida on Republicans "spending millions to defeat our candidate in the FL-13 special election." The truth of the matter is that Alex Sink raised $2,541,349 and spent $1,569,762, while David Jolly raised $1,040,187 and spent $857,997. For all their constant fundraising-- most of which is for themselves not for their candidates-- EMILY's List only spent $209,969 in FL-13, almost exactly the same as Eric Cantor's and Paul Ryan's Young Guns PAC spent ($209,128).

EMILY's List quickly moved their operation to Hawaii, where they are trying to unseat progressive Democratic Senator Brian Schatz with corrupt conservative New Dem Colleen Hanabusa. Ironically, Schatz's record is considerably better than Hanabusa's even on women's issues.

Her campaign is backed by a motley array of Military Industrial Complex lobbyists and shady DC insiders. When PCCC activists in Hawaii came out for Schatz, EMILY's List and a notorious paid thug from Las Vegas they have running the campaign in Honolulu attacked them as "outsiders." And yesterday, when President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid joined almost every Democratic senator in endorsing Schatz, Schriock whined to the Huffington Post: "We've always known this campaign is about Hawaii, not Washington, and that's where it will be decided," Schriock said in a statement. "Colleen Hanabusa is a trusted leader, which is why she's leading in the Hawaii polls and was Sen. Inoyue's [sic] own choice to carry on his legacy. Only one person, Gov. Abercrombie, made the decision to appoint Brian Schatz to this seat-- Hawaii voters will finally have a chance to vote on who represents them in the Senate on August 9." Yes, she said it will up to Hawaii's voters, not politicians, to pick their next senator... She then went on to note that Hanabusa was Senator Inouye's choice to be the next Senator... And misspelled Inouye's name. Because, of course, EMILY's List, far more than President Obama, are the outsiders in Hawaii trying to tell voters there what to do. So far the good news is that EMILY's List hasn't tried running one of their anti-Semitic campaigns against Schatz, the way they did against Steve Cohen in Memphis, or their sexist campaigns against him like they did against L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti. (Both of those vicious campaigns backfired and the pathetic EMILY's List conservative was defeated in each race.)

UPDATE: Alex Sink Is Out

Tuesday morning, Sink announced she's not going for a rematch against David Jolly. And why would anyone in their right mind run for Congress with Steve Israel as chair of the DCCC?

Alex Sink Will Run The Same Campaign Against Congressman Jolly In November… No, Really

Last night a dull, uninspiring centrist advocating the politics of Beltway centrism-- despite the focus-group-tested message in the ad above (the last one run by the doomed Alex Sink campaign)-- was defeated by a weak and generic Republican lobbyist. Sink was defeated on election day by poorer-than-expected turnout among Democrats and left-leaning independents, after a surprisingly decent showing in early voting. Lots of TV ads do not make up for a weak message (Chained CPI, for example) and a weaker ground game. So while David Jolly's campaign was bolstered by the ground troops of National Right To Life and the NRA, the DCCC and its allies were, cluelessly, running more expensive TV ads. Their strategy failed. It won't stop them from ruining more campaigns with the same strategy for the rest of the cycle. It's their business model. You've heard this from me over and over. This morning, you can hear substantially the same story from another voice, the activist mother of a failed Democratic candidate from another cycle, who watched the Alex Sink campaign founder on familiar shoals. (A few identification details have been changed to protect a couple of careers.)

I am the daughter of Mexican immigrants. My parents worked hard, played by the rules, and never expected more than they deserved. They understood the importance of fairness and equality, embodying these values in their actions. They raised me according to these values and I have lived my life attempting to uphold their tradition.

In the 1960s I had two twin daughters. I very quickly looked them in the eyes and told them that as a parent, I had big shoes to fill. However, as long as they understood that everyone deserves equal respect and equal opportunity, I would be doing justice by my parents, upholding the values they so passionately instilled in me. I believe I succeeded.

One of my daughters is a writer. She inspires millions of young women across the world. She implores all women that with hard work and dedication, any woman can be what she wishes.

My other daughter became an award winning physician. She travels the world curing the rarest of diseases in the most desolate nations. She believes in her work and in the power of caring. These values have impacted her greatly, and 6 years ago, they inspired her to run for the United States House of Representatives.

Upon hearing this great news, my entire family came together in honor of my daughter's career and passions. We all congratulated her on her decision and took pride in the dedication she so boldly made to help those in need. We told her that she would win the race by being the hardworking, dedicated individual I had raised her to be. We were proud of her, and excited to see her succeed.

She announced to the world that she had decided to run for public office, and defeat an intrenched incumbent who had been known for his prejudices against women and against people of color and lie in order to further his political career. Throngs of women across the nation began to donate to my daughter, encouraging her to keep up the good fight and defeat this horrible individual. And then, she was courted by a powerful Democratic woman's organization.

This organization promised my daughter the world. Specifically, their regional liaison to our poor, impoverished Mexican American district promised to help my daughter get to congress. She promised the resources needed to fight back against the corporate evils of my daughter's opponents. This take-charge individual even went as far as hiring a complete staff to help my daughter. Quickly, we learned her true motives.

This organization-- with all of their money and knowledge-- was no better than my daughter's woman hating opponent. They wanted to fill the pockets of their rich white, spoiled networks, utilizing their skills for the campaign in return for great fees.

When my daughter didn't comply, they would lash out, telling my daughter's white staff members that they didn't believe in people of color being in office. They solely cared about their commissions and keeping their elite, white, tradition in tact, and lining their friends' and families' pockets--they were everything my parents had taught me not to be.

My daughter ended up losing that race. The strategists from the woman's organization repeatedly told her that an organized, funded field campaign-- in which poor Mexican students would be funded to campaign-- was "hogwash." They insisted that all that mattered was television and mail. Well my daughter spent two million dollars on TV and mail, lost by 10 points, and was left $500,000 in debt.

So, as I look at my party's loss tonight in Florida, I am not surprised. Those who truly supported Alex Sink, in fact did not lose-- they won! They helped their friends and got their commissions. The same organization that ruined my daughter's race continues to be rich.

So who cares if seniors and children die and remain hungry because of this loss? Not these people! These people at that vile organization remained employed and their families and friends remain well fed and funded because of our party's electoral losses. It's all a sham and my parents are turning in their graves…

Yesterday, vegetarian Bill Clinton announced he would be headlining a fundraising event at the Prime Rib in Philly for Chained CPI advocate Marjorie Margolies, Chelsea Clinton's very centrist mother-in-law. A week from yesterday, IL-13 Democrats are expected to nominate an Alex Sink doppleganger, Ann Callis, to run in a district very much like FL-13. The DCCC and EMILY's List will run an identical campaign to the one they just failed with in Florida-- and lose in Illinois as well. Good luck, Democrats.


UPDATE: A Comment On The GOTV "Effort"

Bridget worked as a volunteer for Sink doing field work. She commented Tuesday evening as the race was being called on an earlier post:

I was in the field, but as a volunteer. I volunteered daily at the north office. The FD there was a pompous drunk, who held no-one anymore accountable than he did himself. They got hammered the night prior to the GOTV dry run. I didn't know whether I wanted to cry or throw up. What a shameful effort to fix Congress. My first day down there I was at the main office, and I got a Votebuilder account and set about vol recruitment. I was told that though I was calling the southernmost part of the district, and though there was an office closer to the people I was calling that I was to ONLY recruit them if they were willing to come to the main office, otherwise leave them alone, NOT tell them there was an office closer to them because the FO I was calling for wouldn't get credit if they volunteered at another office. I have been down here for 7 weeks. I board a plane home in the morning. I think that smart campaigning could have won the district. I hope I never encounter such a dismal effort again.

Sink Sunk

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Earlier this evening David Jolly beat Alex Sink 88,294 (48.43%) to 84,877 (46.56%), with Libertarian Lucas Overby taking 8,799 (4.83%).

This morning, PPP reported that the Democrats reclaimed the lead in the generic 2014 congressional ballot, 43-40% after being down below generic Republicans by 2 points in the last survey. "Congressional Democrats have poor approval numbers, at a 35/56 spread, but that puts them far ahead of Congressional Republicans who come in at 23/67. One key difference is that Democrats are at least happy with their own party in Congress, giving it a 66/21 approval, while Republicans give their own a negative assessment at 43/48."

But the special election to fill the open red seat in very-swingy FL-13 (R+1) was decided by independent voters, not Republicans and not Democrats. Because independents broke for David Jolly, a pathetically weak Beltway lobbyist, instead of for Steve Israel's problem-solver-branded bullshit candidate, Sink is now not about to be sworn in as the 100th women Member of Congress. Election Day turnout was around 10% and overall turnout was 38.86%, meaning neither candidate managed to inspire most voters to bother making a choice. The Republicans did a better job in absentees-- 5% over what the Dems managed, and even better than their +4% margin in 2012. The final polling predicted a tight race, as did the early polls… and the midway polls. That's the kind of district FL-13 is.

The final polls on Tuesday's special election in Florida's 13th District point to a very close finish between Democrat Alex Sink and Republican David Jolly. A new automated, recorded voice survey sponsored by the pro-Sink League of Conservation Voters and conducted by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polly (PPP) gives Sink a three point edge (48 to 45 percent). Two more automated polls have been conducted in the last two weeks. One, commissioned by Republican web site Red Racing Horses, gave Jolly a 2 point advantage. The second, conducted by St. Pete Polls, found a tie race. The Pollster poll tracking model gives Sink a slight edge (46.1 to 44.4 percent) but is just 69 percent confident that her lead is real-- far from the sort of margin that qualifies as statistically significant. And that level of confidence assumes that the polling data is collectively accurate, an assumption which often fails in special congressional district elections.

Could the recent polls be collectively wrong? Consider that of the ten publicly released polls conducted on this race in 2014, five had partisan sponsorship (two by the Democrats, three by the Republicans). And perhaps more important, just one of the ten-- conducted in early February by the Tampa Bay Times and Bay News 9-- used live interviewers and contacted dual samples of both landline and mobile telephone numbers. Most of the automated polls, including those from PPP, Red Racing Horses and St. Pete Polls disclosed no special effort reach voters in cell-phone only households (PPP's Tom Jensen confirms to HuffPollster via email that their latest Florida 13 poll is landline only). Federal law prohibits the use of auto-dialers to make unsolicited calls of mobile phones. Of the automated pollsters, only St. Leo University supplemented their automated calls to landline phones with internet interviews of cell-only households identified and sampled from an "opt-in" online panel. The two polls that did attempt to reach cell-only households-- by the Tampa Bay Times and St. Leo University-- showed Sink leading by margins of 9 and 7 percentage points respectively in early February.

Over $12 million has been poured into mostly negative advertising on both sides. Sink outspent Jolly and her outside supporters appear to have outspent his. The ad up top was the very last one the DCCC put up this week. It didn't help. The race was so close, it doesn't mean much in predicting next November but in reinforces what we've been saying-- if Pelosi doesn't dump Israel and get a competent DCCC chairman, the Democrats will be worse off in 2015 than they are right now. Sink's field operation appears to have been the cause of her loss, which makes perfect sense. She let Emily's List take too much of a role in the campaign and they hate field because they can't make a profit for themselves on it. They want all the money spent on TV, which they take a cut of. This should be a warning to other women candidates whose races they try to take over.

Now who's going to take on Congressman Jolly when he's up for reelection in 8 months? Someone who stands for something, I hope-- and I don't mean for Chained CPI.

What's Going To Happen In The FL-13 Race Tomorrow?

A week from tomorrow there's a crucial primary in central Illinois' swingy 13th congressional district. It pits progressive physics professor George Gollin against a Machine-backed run-of-the-mill hack, Ann Callis. Tomorrow, however, there's a special election in the 13th congressional district of another state, Florida. This one pits a dreadful Republican lobbyist, David Jolly, against a garden variety Democratic centrist, Alex Sink. Neither candidate has an ounce of authenticity, neither is even remotely attractive as a leader or public servant and there isn't much reason for any voter to go to the polls other than to vote for Team Blue or Team Red. How sad!

The latest polling, released this afternoon by LCV, shows Sink holding a 48-45% lead, primarily because independents are breaking in her favor 61-27%. There's been an early voting trend for the past couple of weeks favoring Team Red. As of Saturday, about 117,000 ballots had been cast in Pinellas County's special election for Congressional District 13-- more than half of the votes likely to be cast-- and Republicans are gaining steam in the closing days. The GOP advantage in votes cast more than doubled over the last week to 4,515 votes… It still may not be enough for Jolly, given the way swing voters ultimately pick the winner in this centrist district. And, that trend was reversed, albeit slightly, this morning:

Consider that in 2012, Republicans had cast nearly 11,000 more votes than Democrats by election day and then outperformed Democrats on election day by more than 9,000 votes. Barack Obama still narrowly won the district.

In 2010, Republicans had a nearly 12,400-vote lead prior to election day and then on election day cast more than 8,600 more votes than Democrats. Sink still narrowly beat Republican Rick Scott in the district.

It's shaping up to be a squeaker, but giving the recent track record of District 13 voters, Jolly needs an even stronger GOP surge in the final stretch and on Tuesday.

…The national GOP does not appear to have great faith, let alone warm feelings for Jolly and his campaign team, based on the anonymous Washington Republicans who trashed his "Keystone Cops" campaign team in a Politico report published Friday.

The unsourced complaints about Jolly from the story include "inept fundraising, top advisers stationed hundreds of miles away from the district in the state capital and the poor optics of a just-divorced, 41-year-old candidate accompanied on the campaign trail by a girlfriend 14 years his junior."

Throwing a campaign under the bus practically on the eve of a seemingly toss-up election is hardly a vote of confidence-- or a signal that Jolly would be encouraged to run again in November should he fall short.

The media-- both national and local-- has been portraying tomorrow's results as "test of whether Democrats can counter GOP attacks on the president’s health care overhaul." This morning Gallup reported that the uninsured rate is dropping as the Affordable Care Act is kicking in. "The uninsured rate has been declining since the fourth quarter of 2013, after hitting an all-time high of 18.0% in the third quarter. The uninsured rate for the first quarter of 2014 so far includes a 16.2% reading for January and 15.6% for February. The uninsured rate for almost every major demographic group has dropped in 2014 so far. The percentage of uninsured Americans with an annual household income of less than $36,000 has dropped the most-- by 2.8 percentage points-- to 27.9% since the fourth quarter of 2013, while the percentage of uninsured blacks has fallen 2.6 points to 18.3%. Hispanics remain the subgroup most likely to lack health insurance, with an uninsured rate of 37.9%… Additionally, healthcare aides in the Obama administration announced on Wednesday that Americans will be able to renew old health insurance plans for up to three years, even if the plans do not comply with ACA policies."

The suburban St. Petersburg district is considered a proving ground for each party’s political messages and a possible bellwether for the midterm elections. Officials in both parties have said in recent days that private polls show the race to be close. Each has made late appeals for campaign cash.

Former President Bill Clinton recorded a phone call last week seeking local volunteers to help with Sink’s campaign and a half dozen House Democrats emailed fundraising appeals to their own supporters on behalf of her. More than a third of Jolly’s campaign contributions came from members of Congress.

Meanwhile, Republican Rep. Paul Ryan joined Jolly on a conference call with voters, while Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul recorded a phone message for the GOP nominee aimed at supporters of Libertarian candidate Lucas Overby.

…[I]n an effort to deflect Republican attacks on the health care law and rollout problems, Democrats also plan to prominently feature proposed Republican curbs on Social Security and Medicare in competitive races across the country.

“Those issues are paramount,” said Rep. Steve Israel of New York, who chairs the House Democrats’ campaign operation. “Having Republicans say that they want to cut Medicare but continue to fund massive subsidies to big oil companies… that will be a defining theme.”

Republicans answer by highlighting how some Medicare payment rates were cut by Democrats to help pay for the health overhaul. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has spent $1.2 million on ads arguing Sink is “still pushing Obamacare,” the 2010 law that it calls “a disaster for families and seniors.” Another spot says Sink supports Obamacare “even though it means higher costs and lost benefits,” citing reductions to Medicare Advantage, which lets seniors enroll in Medicare through private insurance plans.

Jolly has put up ads promising spending cuts, balanced budgets and replacing the health care law.

Sink has outspent Jolly by more than 3 to 1 on television advertising, though outside groups aligned with the GOP have helped narrow the overall Democratic advantage.

Having focused much of his campaign on the botched launch of the health care law, Jolly has lately found himself on the defensive about entitlement programs. On a recent morning at a senior center here, the former lobbyist devoted the bulk of his remarks to rebutting Democratic ads that say he worked for a group that wants to privatize Social Security. The spot also charges that he “praised a plan ending Medicare’s guarantee.”

The Republicans’ national campaign committee for House candidates has poured $2 million into TV ads, including one picturing Jolly’s opponent next to Obama and House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi. “She’s fighting for them, not for us,” the ad says of Sink.

Sink, formerly the state’s chief financial officer, tries to blunt the criticism in her own ads. One spot says repealing the health care law would “force seniors to pay thousands more for prescription drugs.”

“We can’t go back to letting insurance companies do whatever they want,” Sink says in the ad.

Polling has been neck-and-neck and the two camps' get out the vote efforts are going to be the whole game tomorrow. For progressives, there's nothing here one way or the other and if there's anything you want to actually do, let me suggest that you contribute what you can to George Gollin's campaign in the other 13th congressional district.

What's The Dumbest Thing Any Democrat Can Ever Do-- Other Than Illegal Stuff?

Sad when cowardly Democrats bend over backwards to play the dipshit bipartisan game with always ill-intentioned Republicans. And it never pays off… at least not for Democrats. In the video above, Alan Grayson explains the "misconception that the best way to elect more Democrats is to have them run as Republicans." It's Steve Israel's basic philosophy as DCCC chairman. And Grayson, wisely, warns, "that's just wrong… Voters deserve a choice. They deserve an honest answer to their questions and they deserve an actual choice on the ballot. If you have two Republicans running against each other-- one with an "R-e-p" next to his name and the other one with "D-e-m: next to his name, it's a tremendous disservice to the public. The public can't choose that way. And if you ran as a Democrat, then there's certain things you should stand for. You should stand for Justice; you should stand for Equality; you should stand for Peace."

This morning Andrew Kaczynski, writing at BuzzFeed explained the Realpolitik of this narrative to naive Democrats who burn the base to pursue the illusory centrist unicorn. "The NRCC," he explained, "is bashing Democratic candidate Alex Sink for supporting Simpson-Bowles, a deficit reduction plan Republicans most often attack President Obama for abandoning or ignoring."

“Alex Sink supports a plan that raises the retirement age for Social Security recipients, raises Social Security taxes and cuts Medicare, all while making it harder for Pinellas seniors to keep their doctors that they know and love,” Katie Prill, a spokeswoman for the NRCC said, according to the Sunshine State News. “Sending Alex Sink to Washington guarantees that seniors right here in Pinellas County are in jeopardy of losing the Social Security and Medicare benefits that they have earned and deserve.”

This is how the GOP plays the game. Confrontation-adverse Democrats adopt their reactionary agenda that is so devastating to working families and then Republicans turn around and attack them for it. Sound familiar. Everything that sucks about Obamacare came straight from the neo-fascist Heritage Foundation and the healthcare "reform" they helped Mitt Romney formulate to stave off Medicare-for-all. Obama and conservative Democrats bought it-- and, well… have you heard any Republicans thanking them for the compromise?

Alex Sink-- lesser of two evils, for sure. It's why you'll never see her name-- or anyone like her-- on this list.

Race For Bill Young's Florida Seat Goes Into The Final Month-- Democrat Alex Sink Is Winning

Because the Cook Report is slightly skewered towards conservatives, their PVIs are generally a full point or two more Republican. Or, pout another way, the PVI are as much as 12-18 months behind demographic changes in districts. Always a rearview mirror operation rather than a forward-looking predictor, Cook rarely gets anything right-- until the day after an election. FL-13, entirely within Pinellas County, was gerrymandered in 2010 to make it safer for Republicans by taking out the African-American areas of south St Petersburg and dumping them into FL-14 (D+13). According to Cook that left FL-13 with a PVI of R+1, a safer situation for longtime incumbent Bill Young when it was FL-10 and had a PVI of D+1. The reality, though, was that old white men were dying off at a faster rate than Republican state legislators could jigger the district boundaries. Within these new boundaries, Obama has beaten McCain in 2008, 51-48% and then gone on to beat Romney 50-49%. And in 2012, Young's reelection margin was the lowest it had been in 2 decades-- and the first time his win number started with a 5 instead of a 6 or a 7. The last poll before he announced he was retiring and then died a week or so later, showed that he would probably lose in November:

After Young's death, the Democrats quickly coalesced around 2012 gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink, a moderate and inoffensive Democratic centrist with sky-high name recognition. She had won FL-13 handily in her race against far right extremist Rick Scott, 153,747 (51%) to 136,577 (45%). The GOP immediately got into a bloody battle for the nomination, after every top tier candidate declined to run. They wound up with a little-known Beltway lobbyist, David Jolly, who has offered no reason for anyone to support him other than the fact he's a Republican and that he wants to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Independents, who make up 24% of registered voters and decide all elections in FL-13, seem disinterested in his campaign and the latest polling shows him losing to Sink.

In the hard-fought and nationally watched campaign, 42 percent would vote for Sink, 35 percent for Jolly and 4 percent for Libertarian candidate Lucas Overby, according to an exclusive Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/WUSF Public Media poll of likely voters in Congressional District 13. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.

The poll also reveals how the Affordable Care Act has become a virtual litmus test for voters.

Of those who support Sink, 81 percent also support Obamacare. Of those who support Jolly, 84 percent also oppose Obamacare.

The election is less than a month away-- March 11-- and both parties are spending inordinate amounts of money. TV time is through the roof and the entire Tampa Bay region is saturated with ads. Sink and Democratic groups have outspent the Jolly forces slightly but it is estimated that by election day, equal amounts will have been spent, primarily to smear and define the other candidate. GOP ad spending is accelerating, primarily from the NRCC ($1.07 million), the Chamber of Commerce ($775,000) and Rove (just under $400,000). The DCCC and it's allied House Majority PAC have spent approximately $2.5 million so far. The most recent FEC filing shows Jolly with $72,954 cash on hand-- after have spent most of his contributions on winning the primary-- while Sink is holding $1,142,848. Her own campaign is massively outspending his own campaign and it is only through the efforts of right-wing outside groups that he is staying even. His campaign spent around $180,000 on TV ads so far and hers has spent just over a million. The Cantor/Ryan SuperPAC, Young Guns, plans to spend around a quarter million dollars and EMILY's List is spending on direct mail, more interested-- as usual-- in pumping money into its own coffers than helping win the race. EMILY's List forces candidates to hire incompetent firms run or staffed by EMILY's List-related operatives and they spend their own resources strictly in ways that help their own bottom line. It's their business model.

Republicans haven't stopped whining, as they always do, that the Times poll is skewered or something. However, another poll came out this morning showing Jolly in even worse trouble, a 9 point spread between him and Sink with Libertarian Lucas Overby taking 12 points, likely most of it from Jolly.

“Ms. Sink’s advantage is being driven by solid favorability ratings coupled with issue positions that seem to be more closely aligned with voter preferences than are Jolly’s,” said Frank Orlando, a political science instructor at Saint Leo University. “She overcomes a partisan ID disadvantage in the district by maintaining much higher favorability among than Republicans and Independents than Mr. Jolly does among Democrats. The fact that a Libertarian candidate has robust support levels in the double digits seems to be contributing to the size of Sink’s lead.”

Democrats are overwhelmingly (88 percent) favoring Sink with only 6 percent favoring Jolly and 4 percent favoring Overby. However, Republicans are a bit more divided on their candidate. Only 64 percent of Republicans are backing Jolly. Sixteen percent of Republicans say they’ll vote for Sink and another 14 percent say they’ll chose the Libertarian candidate.

“Jolly is not only leaking Republican voters to Alex Sink, but also to David Overby,” said Orlando. “Traditionally, Libertarian candidates have siphoned off more support from Rebublicans and Republican-leaning independents, and this is the case here. Despite being outspent and advertised, Overby’s presence in the televised debate has increased his visibility, but it remains to be seen if he can maintain this support to election day.”

…Opinion is also split about what to do about the Affordable Care Act. A plurality of voters – 40 percent – think Congress should keep the law but make changes to fix it. This is essentially Sink’s position on the law. Just 20 percent of voters say Congress should repeal the law entirely, which is essentially Jolly’s position. Overall, 57 percent of voters think the law should be kept in one form or another, while 41 percent think it should be repealed (20 percent) or repealed and replaced with another plan (21 percent).

Voters also support providing a path to legal status for undocumented immigrants (57 percent), while 34 percent think they should be required to leave the country. Jolly has taken a harder line on immigration than has Sink, and again Sink appears to be closer to where most voters are on the issue.

“David Jolly has made linking Alex Sink with President Obama’s agenda a centerpiece of his campaign,” continued Orlando. “While Jolly is performing well among voters that would like to see Obamacare repealed, he must win over at least a few voters that take a less negative view of the bill. Sink’s strategy, which will likely be repeated by her Democratic copartisans this fall, is to advocate keeping the law but agreeing to popular changes. At this point, her views seem to align more closely with a majority of likely voters in the district,” concluded Orlando.

FL-13-- A Special Election All About Hypocrisy

The DCCC and NRCC have already spent over half a million dollars in FL-13 smearing, respectively, NRCC candidate David Jolly and DCCC candidate Alex Sink. The DCCC spent $288,151 last week and the NRCC put in , $220,049 last week (bringing their total to $353,419). Two other especially sleazy outfits have jumped in, one on behalf of Jolly, (the Allen West Guardian Fund- $36,930) and one on behalf of Sink (EMILY's List- $15,264). As of last month, Sink reported having $1,054,488 on hand and Jolly, who just finished a bruising and expensive primary, reported $141,891 cash on hand.

The Alex Sink ad up top is a really good one. It's completely truthful and it hits Jolly as being a slimy lobbyist. And remember, being a lobbyist in the only profession Americans view even less favorably than being a member of Congress-- no really; it was polled. The one weak link in Sink's attack is that sophisticated voters might ask her if she's willing to take a pledge to not see lobbyists, not take money from lobbyists and to never herself become a lobbyist if she were elected. If she took that pledge-- she won't-- I would even consider voting for her if I lived in Pinellas County.

Of course, hypocrisy is hardly the sole domain of DCCC type Dems like Sink. The NRCC and their candidates are at least as repulsive. Yesterday, the Tampa Bay Times reported that the NRCC ad attacking Alex Sink on stimulus spending was something that their candidate Jolly lobbied for! This is what voters in Pinellas County were reading last night:

Republican David Jolly is campaigning for Florida’s Congressional District 13 as a fiscal conservative, and a new ad against rival Alex Sink revives a favorite target of a few years ago: the federal stimulus.

The ad was created by the National Republican Congressional Committee but has not yet aired (and suddenly disappeared when the Tampa Bay Times asked about it this week). It casts Sink as another stimulus-loving Democrat.

The 30-second spot deems the stimulus a Barack Obama failure and “wasteful spending” that “drove up the debt.”

But Jolly himself sought stimulus money as part of his work as a Washington lobbyist.

It’s the latest example of Jolly's past profession causing problems for his campaign to replace his former boss, the late Rep. C.W. Bill Young.

Records indicate Jolly lobbied for several clients wanting a piece of the stimulus, formally called the American Recovery and Revinestment Act of 2009. His clients ranged from the the interest group Coalition of EPSCOR States, the University of South Dakota, and on behalf of Jesssie’s Law, aimed at increasing funding for U.S. marshals to go after sexual predators.

Jolly, unlike other instances in which his campaign message has collided with his lobbying, did not deny he went for the money.

Every inch on the 13th district is in Pinellas County (west across the Bay from Tampa). Pinellas gave Obama a 238,966 (52%) to 213,192 (47%) win over Romney in 2012. In 2008, voters there chose Obama over McCain in the R+1 district 51-48%. Polls show a close race. Polling completed last month before the primary, showed Sink beating Jolly 49.3- 36.3%. Polling by partisan Republican firms that just skewer numbers to please their clients, show Jolly winning. According to an interview for Politico's Alex Isenstadt, Jolly acknowledged he's the underdog

“Listen, we knew we were going to be outspent. No question,” he said. “But we’re going to win this race on the issues.”

“I promise you,” he added, “in the coming weeks, I will close the gap with Alex Sink.”

Not all Republicans, however, think painting Sink-- who served as Florida’s chief financial officer before narrowly losing to now-Gov. Rick Scott-- as a left-wing lackey of President Barack Obama is going to work.

“She is popular. She is not perceived as a liberal,” said Fred Piccolo, a Republican consultant in the state and a former congressional chief of staff. Republicans are “going to hang Obamacare around her neck-- and rightfully so-- but she’s not a liberal.”

Other concerns are cropping up for Republicans. This month, the Tampa Bay Times published an article revealing that Young had kept a secret second family for more than two decades. In the 1980s, the paper reported, Young deserted his wife and three children to wed his 26-year-old secretary, Beverly. Young had been a revered figure in Florida politics, known for securing federal funds for the state’s defense industry, but some Republicans worry that the piece could take some luster off his name as the special election approaches.

Republicans will also have to find a way to deal with Lucas Overby, a Libertarian candidate whose presence on the general election ballot could siphon GOP votes.

Election day is March 11.

You Know Tuesday Is Do Or Die For The Democratic Party, Right?

Sink, Bircher, Jolly, Peters, some other guy

Once Bill Young announced his retirement October 9 and then quickly died on October 18, we've written about the campaign to replace him in FL-13 a few times (here and here). Just before he announced his retirement, a poll from PPP for MoveOn.org showed a generic Democrat beating Young.

FL-13 is, basically, Pinellas County. When Alex Sink ran for governor against Rick Scott in 2010, he narrowly edged her statewide 2,589,915 (49%) to 2,522,857 (48%). It wasn't that close in Pinellas County, however. Sink beat him 153,747 (51%) to 136,577 (45%). National Democrats have been winning FL-13 for two solid decades and Obama beat McCain 51-48% and beat Romney 50-49%. The election is March 11 and Sink is the Democratic candidate. The whole party has coalesced around her. The Republicans have a tough primary next Tuesday with three candidates, David Jolly, a sleazy lobbyist, Kathleen Peters, a state Rep, and wild card Mark Bircher, a retired Marine Corp Brigadier General. (This morning the final poll was released showing Jolly winning with Peters falling so far behind that even Bircher beats her-- Jolly, 37%, Bircher, 27% and Peters 24%.)

Pinellas Congressional candidate David Jolly said he supports the ban that prevents oil drilling off Florida's Gulf Coast, a perennially important issue in local politics.

But he's facing questions over his own 2011 federal lobbying report, which indicates he lobbied for a House bill designed to expand oil drilling in the Gulf and elsewhere.

Under the "specific lobbying issues" listed in his report, Jolly included House Resolution 909, "A Roadmap for America's Energy Future."

A typically backward-looking Beltway pundit, Stu Rothenberg (backward-looking but, of course, highly regarded inside the Beltway by far more ignorant politicians and hack staffers than he is). Rothenberg insists the FL-13 race is a must win for Democrats, but, presumably, not for Republicans, who would be losing the seat. Here's the conventional wisdom Rothenberg is so highly regarded for:

A loss in the competitive March 11 contest would almost certainly be regarded by dispassionate observers as a sign that President Barack Obama could constitute an albatross around the neck of his party’s nominees in November. And that could make it more difficult for Democratic candidates, campaign committees and interest groups to raise money and energize the grass roots. ...The Republican primary has not been without rancor (it has even divided members of the late congressman’s family), and the eventual nominee will have to unite his or her party quickly, raise funds for the special election and immediately start to engage Sink.

Money could be a significant problem for the GOP.

In her Dec. 25 online fundraising report, Sink showed total contributions of $1.43 million, with just more than $1 million in the bank. In his late December report, Jolly showed just under $142,000 on hand, while Peters reported less than $18,000 in the bank.

The calendar also favors the former Florida CFO, who is clearly more prepared to launch a top-tier campaign after the polls close next week than her eventual Republican opponent will be. While a mere eight weeks separate the special primary and the special election, the window is even narrower than that, because absentee ballots for domestic voters are tentatively scheduled to be mailed on Feb. 4 and early voting begins March 1, according to the website of the Pinellas County supervisor of elections.

Given all of the advantages that Sink has-- the district, her experience and proven electoral success, her money in the bank and her united party-- and the problems the GOP nominee will face, shouldn’t the likely Democratic nominee be a clear favorite to win the special election, getting her party one seat closer to the majority in November?

The answer is “yes,” and if this seat had become open in 2006 or 2007, there is little doubt that Democrats would have been solid favorites to win.

But the president’s weak poll numbers nationally and the problems associated with the launch of the health care law could undermine Sink’s obvious advantages, particularly in this Central Florida district, where 22 percent of residents are 65 or older. (Republican strategists believe that voters 65 and older could constitute close to 30 percent of the special-election electorate.)

If swing voters decide to use the special election as an opportunity to register their displeasure with the president or punish Sink because she is a member of Obama’s party, the eventual Republican nominee’s prospects could rise.

And Democrats are worried that the composition of the special-election electorate will make the contest more challenging for their nominee than it would be in a regularly scheduled election.

Still, all things being equal, Sink has enough advantages to produce a narrow but clear victory. So, while a victory would constitute a takeover and give her party’s talking heads an opportunity to demonize the Republicans in Congress once again, it would not be surprising.

On the other hand, since most nonpartisan handicappers and analysts have for years expected this seat to go Democratic when it became open, a Republican victory in March would likely say something about the national political environment and the inclination of district voters to send a message of dissatisfaction about the president. And that possibility should worry the White House.

The National Republican Congressional Committee would love to keep this Florida seat in the special election. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee cannot afford to lose it. Those are two very different perspectives that reflect the relative importance of this election to the two parties.

As everyone in the Tampa Bay Area already knows, the Republican primary race got very ugly, very fast. As a notoriously sleazy lobbyist, Jolly, who has been endorsed by the Tampa Bay Tribune in an especially insipid editorial, is an easy target.

In a mailer sent to voters, Peters’ campaign declares, "Since 2007, David Jolly has given almost $30,000 to keep Democrats in Congress!" It then adds "(But not a dime to Congressman Bill Young)" before launching into a number of bullet points about how Jolly has supported his rival party.

…Peters has spent a lot of time making hay over Jolly’s past as a lobbyist, illustrating why it is so difficult for a lobbyist to run for office (leaving office to become a lobbyist is nowhere near as difficult-- or as uncommon).

Her mailer says, "In the past three election cycles, Washington Lobbyist David Jolly has made nearly $30,000 in personal contributions to the campaigns of Democrats in Congress-- liberals who have forced Obamacare on America and have fought responsible Republican policies."

The flier then lists 13 "Jolly Good" Democratic senators and representatives to whom Jolly has given campaign contributions. Among the baker’s dozen are Florida’s own Sen. Bill Nelson (who received $4,500 in direct contributions and through his PAC, Moving America Forward), Rep. Kathy Castor ($3,600) and former Rep. Allen Boyd ($7,500). Boyd, who was defeated for re-election by Republican Steve Southerland in 2010, is now a lobbyist for the Twenty-First Century Group.

The list also includes other Democrats from around the nation, including Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin ($1,000), late Hawaii Sen. Daniel Inouye ($1,000), Maine Rep. Mike Michaud ($2,250) and former Illinois Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. ($2,300), who was sentenced in August to 30 months in prison for wire and mail fraud for using campaign contributions for personal expenses.

The total listed on the mailing was $28,622, a number PolitiFact Florida confirmed through Federal Elections Commission filings from 2007 to 2013.

The most recent polling (December 3) shows Sink beating Jolly 49.3- 36.3%, beating Peters 47.7- 34.6% and beating Bircher 50.4- 30.2%. Blue America has no endorsement in this race, although Sink is less objectionable than the other candidates.

House Democratic Party Inside Baseball

Becerra, Grayson, Ellison-- actual leaders, not money-grubbers

I'm never really comfortable with a corrupt out-of-touch Beltway committee parachuting into an American congressional district and telling the Democrats there who their candidate for Congress should be. In the old days, even the worst DCCC chairmen-- think Rahm Emanuel-- used to tip-toe, at least publicy, around interfering in primaries. Not so the cloddish, reptilian Steve Israel. He's interfering in more Democratic primaries-- and pretty much always on behalf of the more conservative and more corrupt candidates-- than any other DCCC chairman in history. Yes, Steve Israel is worse than Rahm Emanuel! Emanuel, at least, knew how to win races. Israel is a congenital loser.

I wasn't thrilled to see the DCCC come thundering into the FL-13 special election on behalf of Alex Sink with the intention of burying Jessica Ehrlich. FL-13 is a blue district that the DCCC has mishandled for years. Obama beat McCain there in 2008 and Romney there-- even with a Republican-friendly gerrymander!-- in 2012. But the willfully incompetent Florida Democratic Party and an even lamer DCCC never effectively went after the GOP incumbent, Bill Young. A two-cycle strategy, anathema to all DCCC chairmen, could have easily taken him out. This year, before he announced he would retire-- and before he died-- a MoveOn poll by PPP showed a generic Democrat would have beaten him 48-43% and that after voters were made aware that Young backed the harmful Republican government shutdown, he would have lost 51-42%. Only 33% of respondents said they approved of the job Young was doing.

Last year, Jessica Ehrlich ran against Young and lost, 189,552 (58%) to 139,671 (42%). She raised about half the money Young did. The DCCC refused to back her candidacy and didn't spend a nickel on her campaign. This year, it looked like the DCCC might back her-- at least until former gubernatorial candidate alex Sink jumped into the race. There was never any question who would win that primary but the DCCC couldn't resist now that they've declared they intend to interfere with primaries whenever they want to. They immediately set about to drive Ehrlich out of the race. (Another fair-weather friend, EMILY's List, withdrew it's endorsement of Ehrlich and endorsed Sink.) Yesterday the DCCC strategy succeeded and Ehrlich, bitter and frustrated, gave up and went home.

A poll released Wednesday morning confirmed what everyone already suspected: FL-13 voters are ready to elect Sink and they she would have won a primary against Ehrlich and will win a general election against any of the third tier candidates the GOP is putting up. None of the GOP candidates got above 31% against Sink. And in a Democratic primary, Sink was crushing Ehrlich 69.6-10.6%. Sink and Ehrlich are both moderate Democrats. Neither appeared more or less progressive than the other and both fit nicely into DCCC centrism. So why would the DCCC come in so heavily?

In CA-31 I've been watching what Steve Israel is doing to push his empty suit loser of a candidate, Pete Aguilar against progressive attorney, Eloise Gomez Reyes. This is the bluest district in America (D+5) with a Republican incumbent-- in this case, extreme right-wing multimillionaire Gary Miller-- and the only reason Miller won the open seat last year was because the DCCC screwed up the election by getting behind Aguilar, who came in third, behind two Republicans! Refusing to even speak with Eloise, Israel immediately endorsed Aguilar again and has been pressuring California congressmembers to back him. I've spoken to half a dozen of them who are not pleased that Israel lied to them about Aguilar and about Eloise. But that's how he rolls-- and Democrats in Congress don't do anything about it. Progressives, especially, are so policy-oriented that they avoid power struggles-- which inevitably involve fundraising-- even though those power struggles are what keep them from accomplishing their policy goals.

With just a few exceptions, I've almost given up on current Members to do anything about the caucus leadership. Open positions always seem to go to the most corrupt Members, the Steve Israels, the Joe Crowleys, the Rahm Emanuels, Steny Hoyers and Debbie Wasserman Schultzes. I asked some of the Blue America candidates who they would like to see replace Pelosi is she steps aside, as she has indicated she plans to. Conventional wisdom is that the job would fall to someone unsavory, a virtual Hobson's choice between Hoyer and Wasserman Schultz. But I asked them to not even think of those kinds of realities and instead just imagine an ideal world, not a corrupted one. Most of the candidates said they're not familiar enough with the DC players to make a rational choice. But several did have something to say that made some sense. Tom Guild, for example, said that he's "not familiar with some of the current members of the U.S. House" and added that "since I’m an Okie, I don’t spend much time in the nation’s capital. I’m open to consider any number of possibilities as the next Speaker of the House. The one person who I met when he spoke to the Oklahoma Delegation to the 2012 Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, and visited with when he came to Oklahoma City to speak at our state party headquarters, is Keith Ellison. Congressman Ellison is intelligent, well spoken, and principled. Those would be the three things I would consider in voting for leaders in the U.S. House. Keith would be a good chief spokesman for House Democrats. I’m open to others who are also intelligent, well spoken, and principled who would also be good spokespersons for House Democrats." Good instincts there.

Nick Ruiz has a lot of skepticism about current leadership and he wasn't eager to comment. Coming from an academic background he approached the question theoretically at first: "Leadership requires serious risk-taking and a sort of fearless preoccupation with social inclusivity and solidarity, and an almost uncanny sense of attention and effort paid to the sphere of possibility-- all while often sacrificing your own political hide. Leadership has an ability to tolerate isolation and social discomfort. Leadership is lonely. Leadership makes mistakes. But its resolve is never questioned. I don't see any leaders in the House today." But in the end he posited that if Pelosi really does step aside, "I think we should have a serious conversation about Alan Grayson becoming leader of the Democratic caucus. No present member is better equipped or more effective at channeling the kind of change of pace and energy needed to push the Democrats into their own light. Nobody's perfect. But we're better than the present caucus suggests; much better. Stay tuned for the 2014 election, because we're about to prove just who Democrats are again, and what we can do to represent the best interests of America's working families and individuals. Alan Grayson is an integral part of that future equation."

Let me finish up by going back to Eloise Reyes, the progressive candidate in Southern California who Steve Israel is trying to stiff. "Under the leadership of Nancy Pelosi, we have begun a new and vibrant tradition of electing a Speaker of the House who defies the odds and brings a wealth of bold, progressive values to the Democratic Caucus. Years and even decades down the road, our model of House leadership will continue to be shaped for the better by Nancy Pelosi’s legacy as a trailblazer and true public servant. We have seen these same qualities of integrity and determination in other members of the California delegation, and it is my hope that amongst our future Speakers of the House will be Latino pioneers, like Representative Xavier Becerra, who reflect the changing face and values of our country."

If you'd like to help Eloise, Tom and Nick win seats in the next Congress, you can do that on this ActBlue page.

Alex Sink Is Running For Congress

The big news in Florida this morning wasn't exactly a surprise. After Florida's former chief financial officer and Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Alex Sink, expressed interest in running for the open congressional seat in Pinellas County (FL-13), she became the focus of all Democratic attention. And when former candidate Charlie Justice and potential candidates Janet Long and Ken Welch said a few days ago they weren't running, it was widely assumed Sink had let them know she was in. This morning Adam Smith at the Tampa Bay Times let everyone else know. Sink, who lives in nearby Hillsborough is moving into the district "imminently." Here statement was pure boilerplate, almost word for word what every candidate says when they declare they're running for Congress.

"Washington's broken. And I, like everybody else I know, is angry and mad about the logjam, about shutting down the government, about not understanding the impact it was going to have on small businesses and people. The people up there just don't seem to be able to work together," said Sink, who had considered running for governor again but ruled that out in late September.

"I'm somebody who's solved problems, has a long history of working with Republicans and Democrats to get things done," said Sink, who used to run Bank of America's Florida operations and was the state's CFO from 2007-11. "I believe I can be an effective advocate for the people of Pinellas County and get to Washington and make a difference."

…"I am no stranger to Pinellas County," Sink stressed. "I have a long history here. I have been involved in doing business in Pinellas County for decades, and the people of Pinellas County have elected me twice. They voted for me to be their CFO and they voted for me to be their governor, in this very district."

In addition to helping lead four banks doing business in Pinellas, Sink said that as CFO she worked closely on the BP oil spill that affected the county, helped crack down on insurance agents scamming victims in Pinellas, and selected Largo to be the site of one of her office's two call centers, after consolidating 11 centers to save money.

"Do I know everything there is to know? Of course not," Sink said. "But I'm no stranger, and it has to be about whether or not I can be a leader and an advocate and a voice for the people of this district in Washington. I think I'm the best person to do that."

As we saw a few days ago, the Florida state legislature, sensing Bill Young's time on earth was short, redistricted to make the seat a little less impossible for a Republican to win. It went from a D+1 to an R+1 district, but Republicans have trouble holding onto R+1 districts these days as well, since independents have been tending to break for Democrats as the national GOP drifted further and further away from the mainstream. In 2008, what is now FL-13 gave Obama 177,758 votes (51%) and McCain 164,644 votes (48%). Obama won again last year 171,102 (50%) to 166,087 (49%) against Romney.

With Young out of the way, this district should be a "gimme" for the Democrats. Even before he announced he was retiring, a new PPP poll showed Pinellas County would be happy to replace him with a Democrat. Although his death has rescucitated his popularity, a week before he died his job approval was down to 33% and voters said they were ready-- by a 48-43% margin-- to vote for an unnamed Democrat against him. Worse still, was when voters were informed that Young had voted to shut down the government, his Democratic opponent's chances to be elected sky-rocketed into a 51-42% outcome.

Over on the Republican side, most of the viable candidates have already said they don't want to run, although the best hope for Republicans is to persuade former St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker to change his mind. It's more likely that the GOP will be stuck with one of Bill Young's relatives. His brother, Tom, wife, Beverly, and son, Bill II, are all claiming the "right" to the district. A few days ago another Florida pundit was waxing ecstatic at the prospect of Junior running for his father's vacant seat. I responded snidely about Louis XVI following Louis XV who followed Louis XIV. He had an even snider response-- either that or he didn't understand that many people-- usually those who prefer democracy to any kind of aristocratic governance-- don't like the whole idea of political dynasties. It's so unAmerican… at least in theory it's unAmerican. In reality, it started right from the git-go. The two awful George Bushs came long after the two John Adamses, the second and sixth presidents. Among the political dynasties in our country are the Kennedys in Massachusetts, the Udalls in Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado, the Daleys in Chicago, the Tafts in Ohio… The Youngs in St. Petersburg is a stretch. A few months ago, Time Magazine had a little discussion of political dynasties in reference to the horrific prospect of Cheney's fascist-oriented daughter Liz, following him into politics.

Liz Cheney's announcement last week that she is running to unseat three-term incumbent Sen. Mike Enzi upended politics in Wyoming where the two Republicans are set to duke it out over their conservative credentials. But her candidacy also serves as the latest test of dynastic power in the United States, in her attempt to follow in the path of her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney. "She said it's just time for her to quit sitting on the sidelines and roll up her sleeves," recalled Wyoming Republican National Committeeman Greg Schaefer. They also discussed her last name. "I told her it's her best asset," he said of the candidate's famous pedigree. "It's also her worst liability."

The Constitution is clear, "No title of nobility shall be granted by the United States," but for centuries Americans have shown a clear preference for electing lawmakers of the same political families-- with family names like Adams, Taft, and Kennedy. Roughly one in ten lawmakers in Congress have had a family member serve in either the House or Senate, and many more come from state and local political clans.

President Barack Obama's defeat of the Clinton machine in 2008 could have indicated a decline in political family trees as Democratic primary voters rejected what could have been 24-years of two-family rule. Instead, these dynasties are making a comeback, with at least four well-known surnames considering running for president in 2016. Indeed while America has long held an aversion for kings, it sure loves its princes and princesses.

This is the kind of thing we've come to expect in placed with shallow-rooted democracies, like the Phillippines, Bangladesh, Indonesia… so perfect for Florida.

Banner Congressional Race In FL-13? Will We See Alex Sink vs Bill Young II?

C.W. Bill Young's friends and family have been speculating for years about when he would retire from Congress. Very ill, finally on October 9 he announced he would... in 2015-- and then died about a week or so later. Everyone is busy remembering the good times and trying to not bring up anything about the corruption that defined his life. And political types are all paying homage to fake memories and only whispering about the race for the very swingy 13th congressional district that will turn into an unseemly brawl after the funeral later this week.

The Florida state legislature, sensing Young's time on earth was nigh, redistricted to make it a little less impossible for a Republican to win. It went from a D+1 to an R+1 district, but Republicans have trouble holding onto R+1 districts these days as well, since independents have been tending to break for Democrats as the national GOP drifted further and further away from the mainstream. In 2008, what is now FL-13 gave Obama 177,758 votes (51%) and McCain 164,644 votes (48%). Obama won again last year 171,102 (50%) to 166,087 (49%) against Romney.

With Young out of the way, this district should be a "gimme" for the Democrats. Even before he announced he was retiring, a new PPP poll showed Pinellas County would be happy to replace him with a Democrat. Although his death has rescucitated his popularity, a week before he died his job approval was down to 33% and voters said they were ready-- by a 48-43% margin-- to vote for an unnamed Democrat against him. Worse still, was when voters were informed that Young had voted to shut down the government, his Democratic opponent's chances to be elected sky-rocketed into a 51-42% outcome.

The last time the district went for a Republican presidential nominee, almost half the people who live there hadn't been born yet. So… will the DCCC figure out a way to ruin the Democrats' sure thing? No one thinks so and, in fact, all the Republican Party's top contenders have said "thanks, but no thanks." State Senator Jeff Brandes, former St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker and state Senator Jack Latvala have all bowed out. Latvala mused on Facebook, "Who wants to be in a job that is rated less favorably than a cockroach?" GOP die-hards are still hoping they can find a top tier candidate to face off against former Democratic gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink, who looks like a sure bet for the Democratic nomination.

When Sink ran for governor against Rick Scott in 2010, he narrowly edged her statewide 2,589,915 (49%) to 2,522,857 (48%). It wasn't that close in Pinellas County, however. Sink beat him 153,747 (51%) to 136,577 (45%). Adam Smith, the dean of Florida pundits and the Tampa Bay Times' political editor is working hard to make the race as exciting and pivotal as possible. Over the weekend, he called it the bellwether congressional race between now and the midterms.

A handful of congressional districts nationwide are as politically competitive as Young's. Seeing such a seat open up with no incumbent favored to win is rare, which is why so many local politicians and would-be politicians started gearing up as soon as Young announced his retirement less than two weeks ago.

But the dynamic is completely changed. Mounting a campaign over 12 months is vastly different from running in a multimillion-dollar special election just a few months away.

Prospective candidates and party officials on Saturday did not want to publicly discuss political machinations so soon after Young's death. But the new time frame is sure to prompt national party officials to heavily pressure candidates with the best-known names and money-raising potential to jump in-- and the underdogs to clear out of the way in the name of delivering the seat to their respective parties.

That means former Democratic gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink and former Republican St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker look like the overwhelming favorites.

"Special elections in a compressed time frame favor known quantities: Neither side has much of an opportunity to build an organization or an image," said Republican consultant Rick Wilson of Tallahassee. "Candidates who step in it during a special have a hard time washing it off their shoes for Election Day."

Baker has voiced no interest in running-- while also doing nothing to discourage speculation. He has long said he would not mount another major campaign until his children are out of high school (one is a senior, the other in 11th grade), but he's sure to face some arm-twisting in the coming days.

Sink has described herself as "very interested" and reaffirmed that interest Saturday, while the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has telegraphed its enthusiasm for her.

"A candidate-- like Alex Sink-- who has a strong record of solving problems would be extremely competitive in this district," the DCCC said as soon as Sink's name emerged.

Another significant, new consideration for any prospective candidates: Not only will they face a special election probably within a few months, but they also will face a re-election campaign a few months after that, including a potential, if not likely, primary challenge. A credible, conservative Republican alternative to Baker, for instance, may not be able to build a strong campaign in 120 days or so but in 10 months could be plausible.

It's widely assumed that if the GOP can't persuade a top tier candidate to run against Sink, they'll let Young's son, Bill Young II, do it in the hopes that people are confused or nostalgic. Apparently Young's wife, Beverly would also like the seat. If she and the son were in a primary battle, it would be even better than a bellwether race.