Sink Sunk

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Earlier this evening David Jolly beat Alex Sink 88,294 (48.43%) to 84,877 (46.56%), with Libertarian Lucas Overby taking 8,799 (4.83%).

This morning, PPP reported that the Democrats reclaimed the lead in the generic 2014 congressional ballot, 43-40% after being down below generic Republicans by 2 points in the last survey. "Congressional Democrats have poor approval numbers, at a 35/56 spread, but that puts them far ahead of Congressional Republicans who come in at 23/67. One key difference is that Democrats are at least happy with their own party in Congress, giving it a 66/21 approval, while Republicans give their own a negative assessment at 43/48."

But the special election to fill the open red seat in very-swingy FL-13 (R+1) was decided by independent voters, not Republicans and not Democrats. Because independents broke for David Jolly, a pathetically weak Beltway lobbyist, instead of for Steve Israel's problem-solver-branded bullshit candidate, Sink is now not about to be sworn in as the 100th women Member of Congress. Election Day turnout was around 10% and overall turnout was 38.86%, meaning neither candidate managed to inspire most voters to bother making a choice. The Republicans did a better job in absentees-- 5% over what the Dems managed, and even better than their +4% margin in 2012. The final polling predicted a tight race, as did the early polls… and the midway polls. That's the kind of district FL-13 is.

The final polls on Tuesday's special election in Florida's 13th District point to a very close finish between Democrat Alex Sink and Republican David Jolly. A new automated, recorded voice survey sponsored by the pro-Sink League of Conservation Voters and conducted by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polly (PPP) gives Sink a three point edge (48 to 45 percent). Two more automated polls have been conducted in the last two weeks. One, commissioned by Republican web site Red Racing Horses, gave Jolly a 2 point advantage. The second, conducted by St. Pete Polls, found a tie race. The Pollster poll tracking model gives Sink a slight edge (46.1 to 44.4 percent) but is just 69 percent confident that her lead is real-- far from the sort of margin that qualifies as statistically significant. And that level of confidence assumes that the polling data is collectively accurate, an assumption which often fails in special congressional district elections.

Could the recent polls be collectively wrong? Consider that of the ten publicly released polls conducted on this race in 2014, five had partisan sponsorship (two by the Democrats, three by the Republicans). And perhaps more important, just one of the ten-- conducted in early February by the Tampa Bay Times and Bay News 9-- used live interviewers and contacted dual samples of both landline and mobile telephone numbers. Most of the automated polls, including those from PPP, Red Racing Horses and St. Pete Polls disclosed no special effort reach voters in cell-phone only households (PPP's Tom Jensen confirms to HuffPollster via email that their latest Florida 13 poll is landline only). Federal law prohibits the use of auto-dialers to make unsolicited calls of mobile phones. Of the automated pollsters, only St. Leo University supplemented their automated calls to landline phones with internet interviews of cell-only households identified and sampled from an "opt-in" online panel. The two polls that did attempt to reach cell-only households-- by the Tampa Bay Times and St. Leo University-- showed Sink leading by margins of 9 and 7 percentage points respectively in early February.

Over $12 million has been poured into mostly negative advertising on both sides. Sink outspent Jolly and her outside supporters appear to have outspent his. The ad up top was the very last one the DCCC put up this week. It didn't help. The race was so close, it doesn't mean much in predicting next November but in reinforces what we've been saying-- if Pelosi doesn't dump Israel and get a competent DCCC chairman, the Democrats will be worse off in 2015 than they are right now. Sink's field operation appears to have been the cause of her loss, which makes perfect sense. She let Emily's List take too much of a role in the campaign and they hate field because they can't make a profit for themselves on it. They want all the money spent on TV, which they take a cut of. This should be a warning to other women candidates whose races they try to take over.

Now who's going to take on Congressman Jolly when he's up for reelection in 8 months? Someone who stands for something, I hope-- and I don't mean for Chained CPI.