Will Women-- Including Rural Women-- In Red States Break Away From Their Menfolk On November 3rd And Save The Country From The Authoritarianism The Men Crave?

 

New polling by YouGov for The Economist suggests a bigger swing away from Trump in rural America than in the suburbs. The magazine reported that Democrats are doing less badly among rural voters We'll get to that in a second. But first let me give you a little background on Howard County, Iowa (no relation). It's in the northeast part of the state, hard up on the Minnesota border, with a dwindling population of around 9,000. It's 99% white and the median family income is around $43,000. The closest thing to a city is Cresco (less than 4,000 people). In 2016 Bernie won the Democratic caucuses with 215 votes (54%) and Trump won the Republican caucuses with 112 votes (30.5%). The county had gone for Obama in 2008 and 2012 but flipped hard against Hillary in 2016-- 2,611 (57.9%) to 1,674 (37.1%). That's a 41% swing, othe worst in Iowa and one of the worst in the country.

The county "is populated by older, white, religious, non-college-educated and often disaffected voters, including many independents. This is the sort of place where diversity means people are descended from both Norwegians and Germans."

Neil Shaffer, the county GOP chair expects another big victory "over 60%, " he told The Economist. The Democratic county chair, Laura Hubka told them she "hopes to contain her side’s loss. If Democrats limit rural pain but stir enthusiasm in cities, notably Des Moines, Mr Biden might eke out a statewide victory, as Mr Obama twice did." Iowa's Senate race is even more promising for the Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows her up 2.6% over Trumpist incumbent Joni Ernst, and all the most recent polls show her winning. On Tuesday, Monmouth's turnout models showed Greenfield up over Ernst by 3 points on a high turnout election and winning by one point in a low turnout election.

The Economist's point, though, is that "Democrats can take heart" because polling shows "rural voters everywhere have cooled a bit" on the Orange Menace. "He still has a 14-point lead in rural places, but that is well short of his 22-point advantage four years ago. Commentators seem not to have noticed that Mr Biden has so far gained a bigger swing in rural places than he has in the suburbs. Polling by YouGov for The Economist also shows he is doing better than Hillary Clinton managed among the elderly. And among non-college-educated whites, Mr Biden has managed a ten-point gain over Mrs Clinton."

Yesterday, NY Times reporters Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin looked at 3 states that Siena polled for them-- Georgia, Iowa and Texas and concluded that Donald is on the defensive in those three red states that he carried in 2016. Their polling shows him losing Iowa and struggling in Georgia and Texas. Why? "Trump," they wrote, "continues to face a wall of opposition from women that has also endangered his party’s control of the Senate... A yawning gender gap in all three states is working in Mr. Biden’s favor, with the former vice president making inroads into conservative territory with strong support from women. In Iowa, where Mr. Biden is ahead of Mr. Trump, 45 percent to 42 percent, he is up among women by 14 percentage points. Men favor Mr. Trump by eight points. In Georgia, where the two candidates are tied at 45 percent, Mr. Biden leads among women by 10 points. Mr. Trump is ahead with men by a similar margin of 11 percentage points. Mr. Trump’s large advantage among men in Texas is enough to give him a small advantage there, 46 percent to 43 percent. Men prefer the president to his Democratic challenger by 16 points, while women favor Mr. Biden by an eight-point margin."

The lopsided gender dynamics of the presidential contest extend to Senate races in Iowa, Georgia and Texas, with Republican incumbents facing strong challenges from Democratic candidates favored heavily by women. The gender gap is pronounced even in Iowa, where both Senate candidates are women. The Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield, has a two-point lead over Senator Joni Ernst and an 11-point advantage with women.

...The Senate races in the three states also highlight the same forces that are propelling Mr. Biden’s candidacy. Democrats currently appear to have a good shot of achieving a 50-50 split in the Senate, but in order to win an outright majority they would have to push deeper into Republican-leaning states.

The party may have its best chance of such a pickup in Iowa, where Ms. Greenfield, the Democrat, is capturing 42 percent of the vote to 40 percent for Ms. Ernst, a dangerously low number for an incumbent this late in the race.

In addition to leading among women, Ms. Greenfield is ahead by 10 points among voters older than 65, a group that Ms. Ernst won overwhelmingly when she captured her seat six years ago.

In Georgia, where there are two Senate races on the ballot, Republicans appear better positioned but are still facing highly competitive campaigns. David Perdue is currently winning 41 percent, while his Democratic rival, Jon Ossoff, is taking 38 percent. Sixteen percent of Georgia voters said they were undecided, including a significant number of African-Americans, who historically side overwhelmingly with Democrats.

The state’s other Senate race, to fill the unexpired term of former Senator Johnny Isakson, is even more uncertain. Senator Kelly Loeffler, the Republican appointed to replace Mr. Isakson, is in a multicandidate race with a host of other contenders. If nobody gets 50 percent, the top two vote-getters would advance to a January runoff, which could prove pivotal in a narrowly divided Senate.

Ms. Loeffler is winning 23 percent of the vote right now, while her nearest Republican rival, Representative Doug Collins, is garnering 19 percent. The top Democratic vote-getter is the Rev. Raphael Warnock, who’s also taking 19 percent of the vote. The highest vote share in the race, however, is not currently residing with any candidate: 27 percent of Georgians said they were undecided in the race.

Both Ms. Loeffler and Mr. Collins have tied themselves closely to Mr. Trump in the hope of gaining a decisive advantage with conservatives in the first round of voting. But in a runoff, either of them would be confronting a rising population of younger people and Black and Latino voters who reject the president.

...The Texas Senate race appears to be the best bet for Republicans among the three states. Senator John Cornyn, who’s seeking a fourth term, is winning 42 percent of the vote, while M.J. Hegar, the Democrat, is taking 37 percent.

Still, that a long-serving official such as Mr. Cornyn is not more firmly in control of the race illustrates the increasingly competitive nature of Texas elections and the G.O.P.’s struggles with suburban voters. Mr. Cornyn’s advantage is powered almost entirely by rural voters: he’s trailing significantly among those who live in cities and has just a two-point advantage with suburbanites, 17 percent of whom said they were still undecided.

A significant danger looming for Texas Republicans is that Mr. Trump’s hard-line immigration policies are increasingly out of step with where the state is today, and where it is heading.

Three-quarters of the state’s voters support a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants currently living in the country, including 98 percent of Texans under 30. Just 20 percent of Texans over all opposed such a process.

Texans were closely split on Mr. Trump’s proposal for a border wall. But opposition to such a wall is overwhelming among younger voters and significant among independents and those living in the state’s cities and suburbs.

In Texas, Heger may be a lost cause but there are at least half a dozen Republican-held congressional districts that aren't. Two of the likeliest to be flipped are partially in Austin, TX-10 (Michael McCaul's seat) and TX-25 (Roger Williams' seat). The Democrats running are both stellar progressives: Mike Siegel and Julie Oliver. Earlier Siegel told me that "Texas women turned the Texas 10th from a 'safe Republican' seat to a national battleground district during my 2018 campaign, and Texas women will help me finish the job in 2020. My core platform is based on service to the community, building on my 21 years of service as a public school teacher and civil rights lawyer. In a district with many retired teachers, especially in the rural areas, this resonates-- folks see me as someone who will protect our safety net and restore common decency. My advocacy against voter suppression and family separation policies also means a lot to Texas women, many of whom take their civic engagement and Christian values seriously."

Mike continued, saying that "Most importantly, I think, is my willingness to show up and listen, and to be a healer instead of a divider, is what will carry us to victory. The Republican incumbent in the Texas 10th, Michael McCaul, is currently running ads that use racial tropes and demonize the Black Lives Matter movement. He highlights a rural law enforcement official with a demonstrated history of racist public statements. Meanwhile, I'm married to a Nigerian-American woman who is a veterinarian and business owner, and we are raising two children of mixed heritage. We represent the new Texas-- one that is a land of opportunity but also diverse and progressive-- and that image resonates with many women. While the Republicans yearn to look back to Nixonian politics of the 1960s, we are showing a path forward, a Texas where we respect and take care of each other. Through these messages we are building a broad movement. And I'm confident we will prevail."

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