Donald J Trump-- Electoral Albatross

Cone of Shame by Nancy Ohanian

Since Trump took over the White, U.S. influence abroad has tanked-- and just a year into his presidency U.S. leadership approval had already hit an all-time low. It's taken a while, but most Americans have now caught on. Gallup reported an astounding new 38/57% approval/disapproval for Trump yesterday. And as Jonathan Bernstein explained for Bloomberg News, "there’s just no way that a president is going to be re-elected with a solid majority thinking he has failed in office... The big problem for Trump is that no elected president in the modern era has improved dramatically between this point and the election.

Gabe Sherman, writing for Vanity Fair really knows how to get under Trump's orange-hued skin and he noted yesterday that with Señor Trumpanzee's "approval sinking to Jimmy Carter levels and coronavirus cases spiking across the country, Trump is reluctantly waking up to the grim reality that, if the current situation holds, his reelection is gone. Republicans that have spoken with Trump in recent days describe him as depressed and 'down in the dumps.' 'People around him think his heart’s not in it,' a Republican close to the White House said. Torn between the imperative to win suburban voters and his instincts to play to his base, Trump has complained to people that he’s in a political box with no obvious way out. According to the Republican, Trump called Tucker Carlson late last week and said, 'what do I do? What do I do?'"

To console himself, Trump still has moments of magical thinking. “He says the polls are all fake,” a Republican in touch with Trump told me. But the bad news keeps coming. This week, Jacksonville, Florida-- where Trump moved the Republican National Convention so he could hold a 15,000-person rally next month-- mandated that people wear masks indoors to slow the explosion of COVID-19 cases. According to a Republican working on the convention, the campaign is now preparing to cancel the event so that Trump doesn’t suffer another Tulsa–like humiliation. “They probably won’t have it,” the source said. “It’s not going to be the soft landing Trump wanted.”

...Trump remains furious at his son-in-law Jared Kushner, whom he blames for the campaign’s dismal poll numbers. Axios reported this week that Trump complained privately that Kushner’s advice on criminal-justice reform damaged Trump politically. But because Kushner is family, sources say it’s unlikely that Trump will formally strip him of authority.

Kushner’s vast sway over West Wing decisions has become a flashpoint between him and Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, sources say. The two have been engaged in a cold war over control of the campaign. Meadows pushed Trump to replace campaign manager Brad Parscale, a Kushner ally, the Republican close to the White House said. Kushner wasn’t happy that Meadows is close with Kushner’s adversaries Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie. “Meadows is in real shit. He went to war with Jared and tried to get Brad out,” the Republican, briefed on the internal debate, told me. A couple weeks ago, Meadows unloaded about Kushner over dinner with his predecessor, Mick Mulvaney, at Sette Osteria near the White House. “All Mark did was complain how much operational control Jared has and how it leaves very little space for the chief of staff,” said a Republican briefed on the conversation. “Mark whined to Mick, ‘why didn’t you warn me before I accepted the job? There’s nothing for me to do.’”

Nervous Republicans worried about losing the Senate are now debating when to break from Trump. Trump campaign internal polls show Trump’s level of “strong support” dropping from 21 to 17 points since last week, a person briefed on the numbers said. A source close to Iowa Republican Joni Ernst’s campaign said Ernst advisers are upset that a solid seat is now in play. “Joni’s campaign is pissed. They should not be in a competitive race,” the source said. ("This is completely false," an Ernst campaign spokesperson said in a statement. "Folks are energized about re-electing Joni Ernst, President Trump and the rest of Republican ballot in Iowa this November.") A Republican strategist close to Mitch McConnell told me that Republicans have Labor Day penciled in as the deadline for Trump to have turned things around. After that, he’s on his own.

Ernst is in a tight race and she can't afford to lose any Trump voters by offending him. Nor can she afford to lose independent voters by appearing to be a Trump lackey-- which is what she is. She's in trouble. She isn't the only Republican in that bind. 8 incumbent senators and dozens of Republican House members are in exactly the same situation.

Probably too far gone to turn things around:

• Martha McSally (AZ)
• Steve Daines (MT)
• Cory Gardner (CO)
• Susan Collins (ME)

And teetering on the brink of political oblivion:

• Joni Ernst (IA)
• Thom Tillis (NC)
• David Perdue (GA)
• Dan Sullivan (AK)

Hardball by Nancy Ohanian

Some districts are so blue or so red that it just doesn't matter what independents think. Take Texas, for example. Mac Thornberry represents TX-13 (the Panhandle) and is leaving office. A good opportunity for Democrats? Not at all. The PVI is R+33. Trump beat Hillary in that district 79.9% to 16.9%. There are more Republicans in the district than Democrats and independents combined. Or look at TX-09 (south Houston). Al Green represents the district, which has a PVI of D+29. Hillary beat Trump there 79.3% to 18.0%. Green is a corporate Democrat with an "F" rating from ProgressivePunch-- but safe as can be in a district with such an overwhelmingly Democratic population. In between TX-09 and TX-13, though are districts that have been gerrymandered to create thinner Republican majorities. Last year two of them flipped from red to blue. This year, more should-- perhaps 4 or 5!-- where Democratic candidates are working hard and smart to take advantage of demographic changes and political changes (read: Trump and Abbott) that are making for more open-minded and fluid electorates.

Wendy Davis is likely to flip TX-21. Gina Ortiz Jones is likely to flip TX-23. Mike Siegel is likely to flip TX-10. Julie Oliver is likely to flip TX-25. In those 4 districts, there are no longer enough Republicans so that someone who looks like a knee-jerk Trump stooge can win but just parroting the White House daily talking points. Having already overwhelmingly won her primary, I asked Oliver how that dynamic is playing out in her central Texas district in terms of the November general election. "People are tired of labels," she told me last night. "And Texans have woken up and seen that with a career politician like Roger Williams, you have someone who is just willing to tie himself to Trump's overt racism and corruption, and put the president and his career before Texas and the district's needs every time."