A Fight For the Soul Of The Democratic Party-- An FDR Democrat Vs An Eisenhower Republican-- In 12 Charts

He Can Do It by Nancy Ohanian

There are a couple of theories about the strategy of beating Trump-- something that right now, the 5 top Democrats (even Mayor Pete, albeit by just 1 point) are seen doing in head-to-head match-ups. One strategy is to get Republicans and Republican-leaning independents to vote for the Democratic nominee. That's the strategy Status Quo Joe, Mayo Pete, Mini-Mike, Klobuchar and, to a lesser extent, Elizabeth Warren are all using. The second strategy, the Bernie strategy, is to inspire a massive Democratic turnout-- and not just from Trump haters-- including low propensity-voters and non-voters. When the MSNBC talking heads immediately jumped on the Iowa results to prove Bernie wrong, they were quickly hoist other own petards when it was shown that voting among under 30 voters and Hispanic voters-- two Bernie bastions-- rose dramatically and that the segment of voters that did not rise were voters over 70, the Biden base.

As you surely know by now, Bernie won in New Hampshire last night. This was the second of the two states where the largest number of voters chose him. The new polling from Morning Consult, released yesterday while New Hampshire voters had begun voting, pointed to the eventual, final progressive vs conservative match-up we were all waiting for: Bernie vs the Republican oligarch, Michael Bloomberg, who financed-- to the tune of $12 million-- GOP Senator Pat Toomey's reelection... and thereby the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. The survey shows Bernie in the lead nationally, with Biden rapidly disintegrating and Bloomberg, Mayo Pete and Klobuchar fighting for his ideological supporters.

Michael Bloomberg: American Oligarch by Nancy Ohanian

Biden came in 5th in New Hampshire last night-- fifth, despite the mainstream media relentlessly pushing him as the "front-runner" for almost 8 months. Not just Bernie, but Mayo Pete, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren all beat him. Biden ran crying to South Carolina, to make one of those speeches that prove without a doubt that he is completely senile. During one of his more lucid moments, he claimed Bernie won because Vermont is a neighbor to New Hampshire. OK, so is Massachusetts, although far more so, since New Hampshire voters share Massachusetts media. But Elizabeth Warren did almost as badly as Status Quo Joe did-- and former Gov. Deval Patrick got 1,238 votes (0.4%). Biden, exactly like Trump, is incapable of preventing lies from pouring out of his mouth whenever he feels attacked. It's a condition.

This first chart shows the breakout among all Democratic primary voters. And the second is just Democrats in the March 3rd Super Tuesday states (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia) + Democrats Abroad.

Now Let's take a look at the demographic breakdowns, starting with the very youngest cohort of voters-- 18-22, Bernie's strongest and most dedicated group of voters, a group with minimal interest in the conservatives running-- Biden, Bloomberg, Mayo and Michael Bennet cumulatively backed by just 23% of these Gen Z voters (note also that Klobuchar disappears as a contender entirely):

Next comes millennial voters, aged 23-38, another major Bernie strength. Bernie is counting on turning Gen Z and Millennial voters out in far greater numbers than they have demonstrated in previous elections. The theory of the case is that in previous elections-- with the exception of Obama in 2008, less so in 2012-- there was no one to vote for, just a lesser-of-two evils choice many refused to make.

By the time we get to the next cohort, Gen X-- voters between 39 and 54, Bernie is beginning to struggle with the conservatives in the race. He still leads, but narrowly, the anti-aspirational, anti-idealism candidates, Biden, Bloomberg and Mayo Pete, all starting to gain on him and Klobuchar popping up for the first time.

According to this survey-- although not according to some other recent surveys-- Bernie falters gigantically among the very old. Here's where the conservatives all shine. Here's where many voters have very short horizons and aren't thinking about inter-generational projects for posterity like the Green New Deal or even Medicare-for-All. These are people who vote out of fear of things changing. These are primarily status quo or status quo ante voters. Morning Consult shows the 3 conservatives-- Biden, Bloomberg and Mayo (the B-Team) leading in this cohort, a cohort that has also been the most dependable voters, who tend to always show up and vote for their Republican-lite candidates.

The next demographic breakdowns are by race: Whites, Blacks, Hispanics and Asians. Bernie is leading decisively among each group except among Black voters, where his support is growing while Biden's continues to erode significantly. I expect that South Carolina, once hailed as Status Quo Joe's "firewall," will yield a 4-way tie between Bernie, Biden, Bloomberg and Steyer and, perhaps finally putting a silver spike into the heart of Mayo Pete's current aspirations, repaying him for the ugly racist mayoralty he has tried, unsuccessfully, to explain away. Even 4% among Black voters seems too high for this creep. ("Stop and Frisk" Bloomberg is another matter, and his long hostility to African-Americans needs to be baked into a cake that is still be assembled.)

The last two graphics represent the ideological ends of the Democratic Party-- the Democratic wing (self described liberals) and the Republican wing (self-described conservatives). Bernie leads gigantically among liberals (the FDR wing) and Biden, Bloomberg and Mayo-- again, the 2020 Democrats' B-Team-- is fighting it out for the conservatives in the party, largely elderly, fear-based voters.