Michigan 2020-- Will Democrats Make The Same Mistake They Made In 2016?

Michigan used to be a reliably Republican state. Michiganders picked native son Jerry Ford over Carter in 1976, Reagan both times he ran and the George H.W. Bush over Dukakis in 1988 but in 1992 the state started turning-- and voting-- blue. Bill Clinton beat George H.W. Bush and then Dole; Bush II lost there both times he ran and then Obama won both times he ran. And then along came Hillary-- the worst possible candidate for a state like Michigan. She lost to Trump because she stood for the status quo and he stood for change-- and Michiganders wanted change. It was close but Michigan's crucial 16 electoral votes went to Trump, 2,279,543 (47.50%) to 2,268,839 (47.27%). During the primaries Bernie beat her-- statewide-- and in every single swing district in the state. She won in deep blue counties with big African-American populations. Take Allegan County for example. Bernie beat Hillary 5,545 (60.3%) to 3,489 (38.0%). And by the way, Trump only got 5,327 votes that day. Same in Eaton County-- Bernie 7,007 (55.6%) to Hillary's 5,560 (44.1%), with Trump at 5,386 votes. In Muskegon County it was Bernie 10,062 (53.7%), Hillary 8,220 (43.9%) and Trump with 5,757 votes. How about some of the big counties? Ingham County went for Bernie 22,909 (54.7%) to 18,287 (43.7%), with Trump at 8,056 votes. Same story in Kalamazoo County-- Bernie 20,146 (60.6%) to Hillary at 12,593 (37.9%) and Trump with 8,655 votes. Again, Kent County-- Bernie 43,375 (62.5%), Hillary 25,899 (37.3%) and Trump with just 22,742 votes. In Washtenaw Bernie won 38,063 votes (55.4%) to Hillary's 20,022 (43.7%), with Trump at just 10,206 votes. In the primary Hillary won the big blue counties Bernie would have easily won in the general. He won in places that Hillary lost in the general. It would be crazy to think that Bernie wouldn't have taken Michigan in the 2016 general election.

The only Michiganders who don't want this are hard-core Republicans

So what about 2020? Yesterday Emerson released a new poll showing Biden's support (basically Hillary supporters) shrinking and Bernie's growing. Biden slipped from 40% to 34% (down 6 points), while Bernie climbed from 23% to 28% (up 5 points). Elizabeth Warren climbed from 11% in March to 19% (up 8 points). Kamala collapsed entirely-- from 12% in Match to just 3% now. Mayo Pete, Midwestern Man is a non-factor at 8%, as is Amy Klobuchar, Midwestren Woman, at 0%.

With voters in the 18-29 age range, Sanders holds a very strong lead with 73% of the vote, and competes with Warren for the 30-49 year olds, with both Senators tied at 28%. Among those over 50, Sanders struggles to take 10%. Voters over 50 are heavily breaking for Biden, who gets 53%.

Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, noted that “in 2016, Sanders was able to shock the political establishment by winning Michigan, and it looks like his base of youthful support positions him do it again on March 10th.”

When asked if Secretary Hillary Clinton should run for president again in 2020, 70% of Michigan Democrats said she should not run, 18% said she should, and 12% were unsure.

The majority (50%) of Michigan voters disapprove of the President, compared to 43% who approve. 47% support impeaching Trump, and 43% are in opposition. In the Republican primary, President Trump has a strong lead over other candidates, with 92% of the vote.

...In general election matchups against the President, leading Democratic candidates Biden, Sanders, and Warren all lead Trump by a magnitude that is outside the margin of error.

In the upcoming Senate election, the incumbent Democratic Senator Gary Peters holds a lead above Republican candidate John James, 46% to 40%.

The plurality of voters (27%) say the economy is the most important issue in deciding their vote for president, followed by health care (21%), and social issues (19%).

When voters were asked which health care policy they support-- Medicare for All was the most popular option at 36%, followed by a public option at 21%. 18% of voters want to keep things as they are, 14% want something else, and 11% are unsure. Medicare for All is the leading option for Democrats with 58%. Independents are split between a public option (26%), something else (25%), and Medicare for All (21%). A plurality (27%) of Republicans want to keep things as they are, followed by 24% who want a public option, and 22% who want Medicare for All.