U.S. Military Worries the U.S. Military Could Collapse Under Extreme Climate Change

Image: U.S. Army/John Hall

by Thomas Neuburger

A note about one more aspect of the pending climate collapse: The U.S. military is concerned that the military itself could collapse under the stress of extreme climate change.

This comes via a report in Vice Motherboard by the valuable Nafeez Ahmed. Under Trump's head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, the Pentagon has commissioned and released a report showing just that. Ahmed writes (emphasis mine):

The report, titled Implications of Climate Change for the U.S. Army, was launched by the U.S. Army War College in partnership with NASA in May at the Wilson Center in Washington DC. The report was commissioned by Gen. Milley during his previous role as the Army’s Chief of Staff. It was made publicly available in August via the Center for Climate and Security, but didn't get a lot of attention at the time.

The two most prominent scenarios in the report focus on the risk of a collapse of the power grid within “the next 20 years,” and the danger of disease epidemics. Both could be triggered by climate change in the near-term, it notes.

The report also warns that the US military should prepare for new foreign interventions in Syria-style conflicts, triggered due to climate-related impacts. Bangladesh in particular is highlighted as the most vulnerable country to climate collapse in the world.

“The permanent displacement of a large portion of the population of Bangladesh would be a regional catastrophe with the potential to increase global instability,” the report warns. “This is a potential result of climate change complications in just one country. Globally, over 600 million people live at sea level.”

Sea level rise, which could go higher than 2 meters by 2100 according to one recent study, “will displace tens (if not hundreds) of millions of people, creating massive, enduring instability,” the report adds.

The US should therefore be ready to act not only in Bangladesh, but in many other regions, like the rapidly melting Arctic—where the report recommends the US military should take advantage of its hydrocarbon resources and new transit routes to repel Russian encroachment.

But without urgent reforms, the report warns that the US military itself could end up effectively collapsing as it tries to respond to climate collapse. It could lose capacity to contain threats in the US and could wilt into “mission failure” abroad due to inadequate water supplies.

The report is here (pdf), and it's sobering reading. It's also rich in detail, very well done, and a great place to start if one is interested in where and how each of our physical, political and social systems — from sea level rise to water availability to power availability; from market challenges to mass migration — is vulnerable.

There's even a section on fixing "the environmentally oblivious culture of the Army." As I said, the report is very well done.

Here's a summary of its recommendations (again, emphasis mine):

Summary of Recommendations

In light of these findings, the military must consider changes in doctrine, organization, equipping, and training to anticipate changing environmental requirements. Greater inter-governmental and inter-organizational cooperation, mandated through formal framework agreements, will allow the DoD to anticipate those areas where future conflict is more likely to occur and to implement a campaign-plan-like approach to proactively prepare for likely conflict and mitigate the impacts of mass migration. Focused research and early funding of anticipated future equipment and requirements will spread the cost of adaptation across multiple budget cycles, diminish the “sticker shock” and impacts to overall spending.

Finally, the DoD must begin now to promulgate a culture of environmental stewardship across the force. Lagging behind public and political demands for energy efficiency and minimal environmental footprint will significantly hamstring the Department’s efforts to face national security challenges. The Department will struggle to maintain its positive public image and that will impact the military’s ability to receive the required funding to face the growing number of security challenges.

Forget Trump and his administration — I can't think of a single past Democratic administration that would mandate that the Pentagon "promulgate a culture of environmental stewardship across the force" in any but a cosmetic way.

Would a future Sanders administration do this? Yes. Would a Warren administration? According to her "green military proposal," perhaps.

Would any of the viable others in any meaningful way? I think not a chance in hell.