The Likely Big Loser In Tomorrow's Elections: Donald J. Trumpanzee

I don't know much about Democratic strategist Kevin Walling other than he was one of the founders of-- and the first political director for-- the right-of-center Inside-the-beltway group No Labels-- and that he is often called upon by right-wing media to play the role of "the Democrat," particularly on Fox New, Fox Business News, Newsmax and the neo-Nazi One America News Network (OAN). His firm Hamburger Gibson Creative does work for non-progressive Democrats. Yesterday Walling penned an op-ed for The Hill, Democrats will win back the Senate majority in 2020, all thanks to President Trump. He asserts that if the election were held today, Trump would lose and McConnell would become Senate minority leader. He foresees Democratic wins in against Republican incumbents in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine and North Carolina and possibly in Georgia as well as Democratic holds in New Hampshire and Michigan and possibly even Alabama.

How do we test out his theories? Well... we're going to learn a lot more about where the electorate is tomorrow-- specifically in Virginia, a swing state trending blue, New Jersey, a solid blue state, and 2 solid red states, Kentucky and Mississippi. Kentucky (R+15) and Mississippi (R+9) have statewide races. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary 700,714 (57.86%) to 485,131 (40.06%) in Mississippi and 1,202,971 (62.52%) to 628,854 (32.68%) in Kentucky. Let's start with Kentucky. With that kind of PVI, how does a Republican not win in a landslide? Watch Matt Bevin tomorrow. He may win, but not by much. He's widely disliked in the state-- including by Republicans, some of whom, like state Sen Dan Seum and Rep. Bill Woods, have endorsed his Beshear-- and the state's Attorney General, Andy Beshear (D), is well-liked and well-respected.





Bevin, a crooked multimillionaire, is out-spending Beshear but the Kentucky Education Association and the Kentucky State Fraternal Order of Police have both endorsed Beshear as have the state's two biggest newspapers, the Louisville Courier-Journal and the Lexington Herald-Leader. Bevin has endorsements and active campaigning from Trump (including tonight in Lexington, where Bevin is likely to lose by a wide margin) and Pence. The two most recent public polls were done last month> Mason-Dixon shows a 46-46% dead-heat and Tagoz Market Research shows a big win for Beshear-- 55-36%. Trump has staked his reputation on this race. If Bevin loses tomorrow, expect Trump to go out of his mind.

The only thing that would make Mississippi newsworthy would be if Democrat Jim Hood actually beats Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves. If that actually were to happen, Senate Republicans would start abandoning Trump for real and rallying around Mitt Romney. Hood has been serving as Mississippi's Attorney General since 2003-- and he keeps winning reelection by big margins-- so it's not like people don't know him. He's an NRA-supporting, anti-Choice fall-Democrats, but still a win by him would be nothing short of catastrophic for Trump. The most recent polling shows Reeves ahead, 46-43% with 9% undecided. Reeves has massively outspent Hood, $15,587,007.24 to $5,257,753.31 as of last week.Tonight Pence is headlining a rally in Biloxi for Reeves.





Yesterday the Washington Post pointed out that the old adage about all races being local is under assault in the Age of Trump, when all races are about Trump. Tim Craig and Seung Min Kim wrote that Democrats see the governors’ races as "an opportunity to prove that voters still want local leaders to prioritize issues of health and economic well-being in states that continue to rank among the poorest in the nation. Political strategists from both parties warn the Democrats’ issue-centric strategy comes with risks as partisan polarization creeps deeper into voters’ everyday lives."

“There are not local races anymore,” said Brad Chism, a Mississippi Democratic strategist who has been advising Hood. “Every doctor’s office, every gas station, every barber shop has a T.V. in it, and eight out of ten of those in Mississippi are airing Fox News … I am personally hopeful that local issues such as infrastructure, public education and transportation supersede this, but the thing about Trump is he just sucks up all the oxygen, every day.”

...[T]he impeachment inquiry “being on the front page of every newspaper has certainly been a rallying cry for a lot of conservatives in the state.” Though national polling has indicated an electorate almost evenly divided on impeachment, 65 percent of voters in Kentucky say they oppose efforts to impeach Trump and remove him from the White House, according to a Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey.

...But both Couvillon, a Republican, and Chism, the Mississippi Democratic strategist, caution that Trump’s strategy of trying to nationalize the governors’ races could backfire.

Despite Trump’s broad popularity in both states, Couvillon and Chism say Trump’s involvement could increase turnout among black voters who traditionally vote Democratic.

There are also tens of thousands of voters in both states who lean Republican in federal races but are still considered up for grabs in state elections. Democrats are fighting hard for those voters by focusing on transportation, education and health care, including Medicaid expansion, Chism noted.

In Kentucky, Beshear is betting on a similar strategy. Instead of talking about Trump or national political issues, Beshear says, he’s keeping his message simple.

“When you talk about public education, pensions, health care and jobs, they are good for every Kentucky family, and I believe we are tired of being divided,” Beshear said.

Deep State by Nancy Ohanian

In New Jersey, all 80 seats in the general assembly are up for grabs. Currently the Democrats have a 54-26 super-majority there and control the state Senate 26-14. Democrats have outspent Republicans by a wide margin and could actually gain one or two seats. The only state Senate election is for the seat Jeff Van Drew gave up went he went off the Congress to vote with the Republicans while pretending to be a Democrat. The incumbent, conservative Bob Andrzejczak, was appointed to fill the seat and has done everything possible to discourage Democrats from bothering to support him; tomorrow he faces Republican Testa.

The most important state to watch tomorrow, though, is Virginia where the Republicans are likely to lose their narrow control of both chambers of the state legislature. All 40 state Senate seats and all 100 House of Delegates seats are are for grabs.

In the last election, Democrats won 53.17% of the Delegates races but just 49 seats. The Republicans won 43.76% of the votes and 51 seats. Several districts have been redrawn by court order to mitigate the extreme gerrymandering and Democrats are expected to pick up several seats and win control of the House. The most red to blue flippable seats:

• HD-27- Republican Roxann Robinson won by 0.5% in 2017 and faces Larry Barnett in Chesterfield County.
• HD-28- Republican Bob Thomas, who won by 0.4% in 2017, was defeated by Paul Milde in the primary, who faces Joshua Cole (bad news)-- Stafford County and Fredericksburg.
• HD-30- Republican incumbent Nick Freitas screwed up and has to run as a write-in candidate against Democrat Ann Faulkner Ridgeway-- parts of Orange, Culpeper and Madison counties.
• HD-40- Longtime Republican incumbent Tim Hugo won by 0.4% in 2017 and faces Dan Helmer (D)-- parts Fairfax and Prince William counties.
• HD-61- Longtime GOP incumbent Riley Ingram is retiring in a swing district where Carrie Conyer (R) faces Lindsey Dougherty (D)-- parts of 5 counties: Mecklenburg, Amelia, Nottoway, Cumberland and Luneburg.
• HD-66- redrawn district should mean Democrat Sheila Bynum-Coleman will oust GOP incumbent Kirk Cox-- Chesterfield County plus Colonial Heights.
• HD-76- redrawn district gives Clint Jenkins a chance to beat Republican incumbent Chris Jones-- Suffolk and Chesapeake cities.
• HD-81- redrawn district gives Len Myers a chance to beat Republican incumbent Barry Knight in Virginia Beach and Chesapeake cities.
• HD-83- redrawn district should mean Democrat Nancy Guy will oust GOP incumbent Chris Stolle-- Virginia Beach and Norfolk cities.
• HD-84- Independent Russell Braddy may spoil Republican Glenn Davis's reelection and allow Karen Mallard (D) to slip in in Virginia Beach.
• HD-91- redrawn district plus retiring incumbent should mean Democrat Martha Mugler will beat Republican Colleen Holmes Holcomb-- Hampton and Poquoson cities plus a piece of York County.
• HD-94- redrawn district (+ a strong Libertarian challenger) should mean Democrat Shelly Simonds will oust GOP incumbent David Yancey-- Newport News.

Currently the state Senate has 21 Republicans and 19 Democrats. This one also looks good for a flip tomorrow. It looks like the Democrats can pick off 4 Republican-held seats, all of which were won by Gov. Ralph Northam (D) 2 years ago and by Hillary in 2016. These are the seats where I expect to see Trump's raging disapproval numbers drag the Republicans down to ignominious defeat tomorrow:

• SD-7- Incumbent Frank Wagner (R) is retiring and both Hillary and Northam subsequently won the district. Expect to see Delegate Cheryl Turpin (D) beat Jennifer Kiggans (R)-- Virginia Beach with a bit of Norfolk.
• SD-10- Glen Sturtevant (R) is a weak incumbent in a district Hillary won in landslide. Ghazala Hashmi (D) should win tomorrow-- Chesterfield County, Richmond and Powhatan County.
• SD-12- Democrat Debra Rodman should oust Siobhan Dunnavant (R) in this anti-Trump area of Henrico County plus a bit of Hanover County.
• SD-13- Incumbent Richard Black (R) is retiring in a district Hillary won by over 8 points and Democrat John Bell is likely to beat Geary Higgins (R)-- parts of Loudoun and Prince William counties.