How Badly Will Trump Eviscerate The New York GOP? Really Badly, Worse Than Anyone Could Have Imagined
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Big Democratic turnout + anti-Trump independents = Republican lossesAnd that holds even in pretty red constituencies. New York State isn't entirely red and I want to look a little closer there because the Republicans can lose some more congressional seats there next year. In 2016, Trump won 9 of the 27 compressional districts in New York, his home state. He won't win 9 next year, unless the Democrats completely blow it and nominate a Hillary-like candidate so uninspiring that he fails, like she did, to turn out the base and fails to woo independents. These are the districts Trump won and by how much:
• NY-01-- Suffolk County- 54.5% to 42.2%Let's look at the same 9 congressional districts with their new voter registration numbers (as of this month) and what happened in last year's midterm election:
• NY-02-- Suffolk and Nassau- 53.0% to 43.9%
• NY-11-- Staten Island, south Brooklyn- 53.6% to 43.8%
• NY-18-- Orange, Dutchess, Putnam, Westchester- 49.0% to 47.1%
• NY-19-- Ulster, Dutchess, Columbia, Rensselaer- 50.8% to 44.0%
• NY-21-- Saratoga, St. Lawrence, Jefferson, Clinton- 53.9% to 40.0%
• NY-22-- Oneida, Broome, Madison- 54.8% to 39.3%
• NY-23-- Chautauqua, Tompkins, Steuben, Chemung- 54.5% to 39.7%
• NY-27-- Erie, Niagara, Ontario- 59.7% to 35.2%
• NY-01- Lee Zelden (R) reelectedIt's looking like Trump has alienated about 60% of independent voters to the point where they will vote Democrats. If that happens next November-- and spills over into the congressional races-- look for Democrats to win both Long Island districts and the Syracuse district (John Katko) and too close to call in NY-21 and NY-27. Imagine if Tom Reed is the only Republican left in the New York congressional delegation. And with the state likely to lose a seat after the census...
• Dem- 151,357• NY-02- Peter King (R) reelected
• Rep- 159,329
• Ind- 131,158
• Dem- 163,014• NY-11- Dan Donovan (R)- defeated
• Rep- 152,306
• Ind- 118,324
• Dem- 193,791• NY-18- Sean Maloney (D) reelected
• Rep- 116,019
• Ind- 97,066
• Dem- 164,061• NY-19- John Faso (R) defeated
• Rep- 135,231
• Ind- 109,142
• Dem- 151,976• NY-21- Elise Stefanik (R) reelected
• Rep- 139,021
• Ind- 116,032
• Dem- 120,462• NY-22- Claudia Tenney (R) defeated
• Rep- 166,884
• Ind- 86,274
• Dem- 130,548• NY-23- Tom Reed (R) reelected
• Rep- 158,947
• Ind- 83,702
• Dem- 131,443• NY-27- Chris Collins (R) reelected, resigned
• Rep- 154,964
• Ind- 85,984
• Dem- 144,719
• Rep- 185,505
• Ind- 100,878
Labels: 2020 congressional elections, New York State, Senate 2020, toxicity of Donald Trump
posted by DownWithTyranny @ 5:00 AM
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8 Comments:
This would be a good thing if the Democrats weren't a party thoroughly infested with corporatist Blue Dogs and New Dems.
At least you're beginning to see the light. To whit: "He won't win 9 next year, unless the Democrats completely blow it and nominate a Hillary-like candidate so uninspiring that he fails, like she did, to turn out the base and fails to woo independents."
And they could even do worse than $hillbillary-like -- biden. But that's the American ride since 1980 isn't it. Every cycle... worse. And the left seeks only to be LESS worse than the worst possible worse. watta fuckin country!
You really cannot gauge the effect on the left should the DNC (their donors) get biden nominated.
If DWT had put even a fraction of the efforts he puts in criticizing Trump ad nauseaum, in at least meaningfully critiquing the neoliberalism and other policies of Obama, DWT would have a little bit of credibility left.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/11/17/did-obama-make-mistake-deporting-3-million-people-bernie-sanders-yes
@6:16 am
Why stop at 1980? This country has been a shithole for the entire time it has existed. Ask any black american, native american or woman with even a passing knowledge of history and see how much "rah-rah" you get.
As for your prognostications - they tend to be contaminated by your seething hatred of the Democratic Party. I believe that any Dem (no matter how awful) can probably beat Trump (though I am not taking Republican vote suppression and likely Trump-favoring foreign interference into account here). I suspect that if "any Dem" does indeed beat Tubby the Idiot President in 2020, you'll be back here posting the same tiresome dreck as to how meaningless it is.
@6:31 am
I am just about positive that Howie Klein et al. have never shown up at your house, put a gun to your head and forced you to read this blog. Folks who want to read valid/sane criticism of Obama can find plenty of it at The Nation or The Intercept as well as thousands of left-directed blogs which excoriate B.O. regularly. Why waste time trying to impose your personal point of view on folks who don't share it? How would you like it if I showed up at your house and forced you to wear a new tin-foil hat?
Honestly, there's something fundamentally goofy about people who note the content of a blog and then declare themselves "THE ALL-MIGHTY BRINGERS OF TRUTH" and proceed to post comment after comment "exposing" the blog. Yes, Obama sucked ass. But guess what? Folks who don't think "Obama sucked ass" are never going to be converted by your pithy comments. Folks who feel Trump is a vastly greater problem than Obama ever was are going to ignore your comments. Or wonder what sort of mental illness you're suffering from.
The Know-It-All poster at 6:31 am says, "I am just about positive that Howie Klein et al. have never shown up at your house, put a gun to your head and forced you to read this blog."
Did ever show up at this Know-It-All's house, put a gun to his head and force him to read my comment?
Did I ever show up at this Know-It-All's house, put a gun to his head and force him to read my comment?
9:03, I take your point wrt the minorities and women. The diff today is that this is a shithole for pretty much all of the 99.99% without regard to gender, race and religion. We're all equally irrelevant to the money and both parties it directs.
However, while I loathe the democrap party and its loyal voters, I truly loathe the Nazi party AND ITS VOTERS far more.
My predictions are more informed by recent history and a modicum understanding of human nature than simply hatred of the parties. 2018 is a rerun of the anti-cheney midterm of 2006. Pelosi's refusal to do her job was a rerun of 2007-2008 until trump tried to smear the democraps' 2020 jesus candidate. 2020 may be a rerun of the anti-bush/cheney election of 2008.
The differences that are known about 2020 will be:
1) the democraps will not feature a charismatic "change" candidate that would drag millions of dormant voters into the daylight. Quite the opposite. They are intent on puking up a depressingly corrupt fascist and maybe racist/misogynist candidate that will discourage many millions of loyal voters plus will throttle interest among independents.
2) trump may be seen, even by Nazi voters, as so horrible they may even lose a couple million off their 2016 number.
3) so far, no looming 2008 crash and depression. Stay tuned. If that happens, it's another 2008 for sure no matter the illegitimacy of the shit candidate the democraps push forward.
wild card: if trump is removed or talked into quitting (by a promise from pence for a blanket pardon?), and the Nazis run pence, #2 above is moot.
Trump should be getting the same "polite invitation" to resign that Evo Morales got. He won't, because those who "advised" Morales to step down are the same kind of people who strongly back Trump - greedy and bigoted religious fundamentalists.
OT Q: Dubya bought a huge chunk of Bolivian land with natural gas reserves along with a bunch of shady neighbors and the US Government in the form of the Mariscal Estigarribia Air Base. The sources for the this linked article are listed on that page. What isn't clear is whether or not some of the lithium deposits are on or near that land as well.
Where is Smedley Butler when he's REALLY needed?
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