In Terms Of Congressional Races, Will Texas Be The Democrats' California Of 2020? Or Will The DCCC Screw It Up Again Like They Did Last Year?

Who'll be the next Texas Republican to raise the white flag and skedaddle?

Last cycle, House Democrats elected Ted Lieu to run the DCCC operations on the West Coast. Ted's success was beyond anyone's dreams. He helped-- really helped-- 7 Democrats win Republican seats in California and one in Washington. He also began the process of taking back CA-50 in San Diego County and CA-01 in the northwest corner of the state (despite the DCCC's Washington "leadership" reticence to get involved in either race). During the cycle, several Texas Democrats reached out to me and asked if there was any way to talk Ted into adding Texas to his portfolio. One said, "Those lunkheads in DC won't know Texas isn't part of the West Coast unless someone tells them anyway."

The DCCC's vice chair for the region including Texas was Jared Polis who immediately upon getting elected to the post put out an impressive press release meant to wow Colorado voters-- and then resigned to run a successful campaign for governor of Colorado. The DCCC swore to replace him but never did, leaving Texas at the mercy of the DCCC's inexperienced, conservative staff, which managed to screw up the chances of Democrats across the state that could have given Ted a run for his money. The DCCC left half a dozen winnable seats on the table for one reason and one reason only: their most distinguishing characteristic-- sheer incompetence.

So... this year, Texas is likely to be a gold mine for Democrats-- although there is still plenty of time for the DCCC to screw that pooch again, the new chair, Cheri Bustos, making that last imbecile, Ben Ray Luján, almost look good in comparison to herself. Texas is practically begging for help to replace Republicans with Democrats.

Yesterday, Roll Call's Bridget Bowman noted that "A handful of Republican-held House seats in the Texas suburbs represent fertile ground for competitive races in 2020, according to recent Democratic polling. The surveys in six GOP districts... are a sign that Democratic outside groups are willing to spend resources in the Lone Star State, where party leaders believe they can make gains next year. The polls were commissioned by House Majority Forward, the nonprofit arm of House Majority PAC, a super PAC tied to the chamber’s Democratic leadership." That's Pelosi's PAC, which notoriously works hand in hand with the DCCC to sabotage progressives and boost conservatives.

Three of the districts surveyed have GOP incumbents running for reelection, including Reps. Michael McCaul in the 10th District, Chip Roy in the 21st and John Carter in the 31st. Polls were also conducted in three open-seat races in the 22nd, 23rd and 24th districts. Republicans won all six seats in 2018, all by margins of 5 points or less.

The surveys, conducted by Public Policy Polling, tested a generic Democrat against a generic Republican in each of the districts.

Respondents backed a generic Republican candidate over a Democratic one in four of the six races. In the 10th, 21st and 22nd districts, 49 percent supported a GOP candidate, compared to 46, 44 and 45 percent respectively for a Democrat. Fifty-one percent backed a Republican in the 31st District, compared to 44 percent for a Democrat.

A generic Democratic candidate garnered more support in two districts. Fifty-three percent backed a Democrat in the 23rd District, where GOP incumbent Will Hurd is retiring, to 41 percent for a Republican. In the 24th District, where GOP Rep. Kenny Marchant is retiring, 47 percent of respondents supported a Democrat while 46 supported a generic Republican.

The polls surveyed between 523 and 656 likely voters in each of the congressional districts and had margins of error between plus or minus 3.8 and 4.2 percentage points. They were conducted Sept. 19-21 via landline telephone interviews using IVR technology, also known as automated phone polling.

With the fields still taking shape in these races, the surveys are an early sign that these Texas contests could be competitive, in part because of shifting demographics in the state. The GOP-held suburban districts are also among the fastest growing in the country, according to a CQ Roll Call analysis.

Democrats have been bullish about their chances of flipping House seats in Texas as they look to expand their majority. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has a headquarters in Austin, and DCCC Chairwoman Cheri Bustos said at the Texas Tribune Festival recently that the state is “ground zero” in 2020.

Asked at the festival Saturday if she agreed with Bustos, Speaker Nancy Pelosi said, “Yes, indeed. This is it.”

“Texas is our hope for the future,” the California Democrat said.

Pelosi also noted that recent GOP retirements in Texas have bolstered her party’s efforts there. With six House Republican incumbents opting not to seek reelection, Democrats have branded those exits a “Texodus.”

Two of the three GOP incumbents in the targeted races had higher disapproval than approval ratings, the PPP surveys found.

McCaul had a 32 percent job approval rating compared to 37 percent disapproval in the 10th District. Thirty percent of those surveyed in the 21st District approved of Roy’s job performance, compared to 35 percent who disapproved. Carter had a net positive rating in the 31st District, with 38 percent approving and 37 percent disapproving.

The best of the Texas Democratic candidates, Mike Siegel-- please consider contributing to his campaign by clicking on the 2020 Turning Texas Blue thermometer above-- put it like this: "Every bit of news here in Texas shows the opportunity we have in 2020. McCaul started in 2018 with anywhere from an R+14 to an R+19 advantage. I ran a hard campaign as the Democratic nominee, with a powerful volunteer network and grassroots campaigning across nine counties, and we narrowed the gap to 4% on Election Day. At the start of 2019, pundits still saw McCaul as an R+9 favorite, but now we know that’s not true. Not only does a generic Republican only have a 3-point advantage, McCaul himself is underwater, with higher negatives than positives. He’s absolutely vulnerable, and every day that he defends Trump and runs interference on impeachment, is another day digging his way to early retirement."

Also worth noting: Trump's job approval rating in Texas has continued to drop and seems to have not bottom. In the last poll Morning Consult did (about 3 weeks ago), Trump's approval was shown to have decreased by a startling 18 points since he occupied the White House and now stands at 49% approval, 47% disapproval-- and that was before the Ukraine scandal broke. Senior Texas Senator John Cornyn will also be on the ballot next year and his job approval is a very weak 43%.