No Blue Wave Anywhere In Sight-- But Another Massive Anti-Red Wave Is Building

Rasmussen is so thoroughly tied to the GOP that I rarely mention them and rarely even look at their polls. Trump has often pointed to them as his personal poll and I have often heard that if a candidate pays them, they can get the result they're looking for. You know things are looking glum for Trump when Rasmussen releases a poll-- as they did yesterday-- that paints a dire picture of his reelection chances.

2018 was a good electoral year for the Democrats, not because of the Democrats but because of Trump and his congressional enablers. 2020 is shaping up to be just as good-- possibly, despite most of the low hanging fruit having been harvested, better. Unlike 2018, Trump won't be an abstract; he'll be at the top of the ticket-- with nothing to offer voters except racist, divisiveness, hatred, victimology and bigotry. Early in the week, the NY Times pointed out that Trump has no clear policy agenda and virtually no accomplishments. He spent the summer making personal attacks on Democratic politicians, pop culture figures and the media and waging a disastrous trade war against China. The Democrats weren't offering much more than a message: "put a check on Trump."

If Biden is the nominee, that will be what Democrats are offering again, since Biden isn't offering anything either. In fact it could be worse: "You may not like me or my agenda but I'm better than Trump." Bernie and, to a slightly lesser extent, Elizabeth would be genuine game changers, the first since FDR. Otherwise, it will be up to individual candidates-- garbage DSCC and DCCC candidates like John Frackenlooper (CO) and Kurt Schrader (OR) or game-changer candidates like Andrew Romanoff (CO) and Mark Gamba (OR).

Rasmussen was only dealing with the presidential race, not with Trump's reverse coattails. They reported that 52% of voters have decided to oppose Trump "and most of them say Trump, not the Democratic candidate, is the likeliest reason why." That includes 21% of self-identified Republicans who say they are likely to vote against Trump (rather than for anyone.)

Among all voters who say they are likely to vote against the incumbent, 58% say their vote is more likely to be a vote against Trump than for some other candidate. Thirty-seven percent (37%) expect their vote to be more about the other candidate.

...Democrats clearly aren’t hanging their vote on whichever of the candidates emerges from their primaries next year. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Democrats who say they are likely to vote against Trump say their vote will probably be more against him than for the other candidate. Sixty-six percent (66%) of GOP voters who think they’ll vote against Trump agree. Unaffiliated voters likely to vote against Trump, on the other hand, are almost evenly divided.

...Among voters who Strongly Disapprove of the job Trump is doing, 59% say they are more likely to vote against Trump next year than for his opponent.

Want to help us get ride of some of the worst Democrats in the House and replace them with some of the best progressives running. The thermometer above is where you can help-- just tap on it-- but here's the list, the progressive on the right and the garbage incumbents on the left.

• Jim Costa (Blue Dog-CA)    Kim Williams
• Henry Cuellar (Blue Dog-TX)    Jessica Cisneros
• Eliot Engel (New Dem-NY)    Jamaal Bowman
• Bill Foster (New Dem-IL)    Rachel Ventura
• Gregory Meeks (New Dem-NY)    Shaniyat Chowdhury
• Dan Lipinski (Blue Dog-IL)    Marie Newman
• Stephen Lynch (New Dem-MA)    Brianna Wu
• Tom O'Halleran (Blue Dog-AZ)    Eva Putzova
• Kurt Schrader (Blue Dog-OR)    Mark Gamba
• David Scott (Blue Dog-GA)    Michael Owens