The Political Calculus Around Assault Weapons

Domestic Terrorism by Nancy Ohanian

Dave Cicilline introduced his assault weapons sales ban on February 15 with lots of co-sponsors-- but not enough co-sponsors to pass it. Months went by and the only new co-sponsor was Susie Lee (New Dem-NV) in March. And then the NRA/GOP massacres in Gilroy, El Paso and Dayton. The bill, which had been written off as dead, suddenly came alive again, much to Pelosi's distress. She worries that if the bill passes, it will damage re-election chances for some of the freshmen from red and purple districts. So she told Nadler to speed up the virtually meaningless background checks bill but to push the assault weapons ban as far into the future as he could. While she played the political games that are destroying the credibility of the Democratic Party, more and more members-- back in their home districts and feeling pressure from enraged constituents-- started co-sponsoring the bill.

Meanwhile, Señor Trumpanzee does nothing but blow smile up the national ass, claiming, falsely, to be working with Congress on a great big plan to end massacres, will assuring the NRA and his far right base that he won't even agree to background checks, the pathetic baby step Pelosi and her sad-sack team are willing to settle for. Trump claims the problem is mental health. On Sunday, on his way to his gold course, he told reporters that "It would be wonderful to say-- to say 'eliminate,' but we want to substantially reduce the violent crime-- and actually, in any form. This includes strong measures to keep weapons out of the hands of dangerous and deranged individuals, and substantial reforms to our nation's broken mental health system...To reduce violence, we must also ensure that criminals with guns are put behind bars and kept off the streets." No more mentions of the "meaningful background checks" he promised after the slaughter in El Paso and Dayton. Back then he tweeted, completely falsely, "Serious discussions are taking place between House and Senate leadership on meaningful Background Checks." That means if the House passes a popular bill and McConnell refuses to allow it to come to the floor, or Trump vetoes it, voters will at least have clarity of who to blame for the next massacre.

On June 6 Marc Veasey (New Dem-TX) and Josh Gottheimer (Blue Dog-NJ) plus 3 freshmen, Katie Porter (D-CA), Susan Wild (New Dem-PA) and Chris Pappas signed on as co-sponsors. The following week, Cynthia Axne (New Dem-IA), Joaquin Castro (New Dem-TX), Bennie Thompson (D-MS), Haley Stevens (New Dem-MI) plus Peter King of Long Island, the first Republican, signed on. Other Republicans said they wouldn't co-sponsor but thatchy would vote for the bill if Pelosi allowed a vote. She freaked out and falsely claimed there were still not enough votes. Four more conservative Democrats were being pummeled by their constituents and signed on the following week: Abigail Spanberger (Blue Dog-Blue Dog-VA), Abby Finkenauer (D-IA), TJ Cox (New Dem-CA) and Josh Harder (D-CA) announced that they are now co-sponsors. And on Friday Katie Hill (New Dem-CA), Greg Stanton (New Dem-AZ) and Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO), finally got on the right side of history.

74% of suburban women want this ban passed. Democrats in urban and suburban districts can't keep opposing it. Rural districts are another story. Incumbents in very rural districts may be endangering their reelection changes by backing the bill. May be; we don't know for sure.

But more than half of the cowards who haven't co-sponsored yet are in districts with negligible rural voters, most of whom vote Republican anyway. These members are endangering their reelection chances by not signing on. It would be interesting if San Francisco voters finally decided to put Pelosi out to pasture. It's a 100% urban district and it's a district that wants a ban on assault weapons. It would be delightful if the voters decided that Pelosi isn't representing them any longer. It's time. She doesn't.

Looking at Gun Legislation by Nancy Ohanian

Of the 28 incumbents still not backing the sales ban, 17 are in districts where they are hurting themselves by not signing on. These two lists are in order of what percent of the voters come from rural areas in the district, where there are some voters who oppose banning assault weapons:

• NANCY PELOSI (D-CA)- 0%
• Colin Allred (New Dem-TX)- 0
• Lizzie Fletcher (New Dem-TX)- 0
• Tom Malinowski (New Dem-NJ)- 0
• Andy Kim (D-NJ)- 0.2
• Lauren Underwood (D-IL)- 1.3
• Ben McAdams (Blue Dog-UT)- 1.5
• Sharice Davids (New Dem-KS)- 1.8
• Jeff Van Drew (Blue Dog-NJ)- 2.0
• Elissa Slotkin (New Dem-MI)- 2.2
• Joe Cunningham (Blue Dog-SC)- 5.0
• Mike Thompson (Blue Dog-CA)- 5.1
• Elaine Luria (New Dem-VA)- 8.2
• Kurt Schrader (Blue Dog-OR)- 11.2
• Vicente González (Blue Dog-TX)- 11.4
• Kendra Horn (Blue Dog-OK)- 13.1
• Kim Schrier (New Dem-WA)- 15.4

On the Fence Voter by Nancy Ohanian

These 12 incumbents each has a somewhat significant number of rural voters are may be calculating the odds, some like Cuellar, DeFazio and O'Halleran-- who have primary battles-- badly and some, like Peterson, shrewdly.

• Henry Cuellar (Blue Dog-TX)- 24.5%
• Anthony Brindisi (Blue Dog-NY)- 28.9
• Terri Sewell (New Dem-AL)- 29.8
• Pete DeFazio (D-OR)- 36.8
• Sanford Bishop (Blue Dog-GA)- 40.9
• Cheri Bustos (New Dem-IL)- 42.7
• Tom O'Halleran (Blue Dog-AZ)- 52.4
• Ron Kind (New Dem-WI)- 65.4
• Jared Golden (D-ME)- 71.9
• Xochitl Torres Small (Blue Dog-NM)- 73.1
• Collin Peterson (Blue Dog-MN)- 92.9

I'd like to make note that it still isn't smart for Democrats to vote the NRA line-- especially not if they have a primary to face. Tom O'Halleran, a former Republican legislator pretending to be a Democrat of sorts now, does have a tough primary and the progressive candidate, Eva Putzova, is running on a platform that includes fighting for sane gun laws. "Most Americans support an assault weapons ban," she told me last night. "Unlike my opponent, I support the Cicilline bill which bans the sale of these weapons prospectively. We need to remove them from circulation so angry, disturbed individuals do not have access to them to commit mayhem. We can no longer remain immobile in the face of the slaughter taking place in our communities. But we also need to do so much more, including implementing universal background check and buy-back program and passing red flag laws."