Democrats Could Be Looking At Big Congressional Wins In 2020

Last nighty, GOP House minority leader, Kevin McCarthy, promised his members--guaranteed his members-- that "House Republicans will gain seats. We will gain seats." Wow, if he meant "net," he's going to be really embarrassed when his losses are in the double digits just over a year from now. According to the Washington Post's Paul Kane, the clownish McCarthy "is doubling down on the GOP’s recent strategy of denouncing Democrats and casting them as socialists who want a complete government takeover of everything from health care to straws. Rather than encourage distance from an unpopular president, McCarthy wants Republicans to stick close to President Trump-- an intentional break from the previous tension that existed between the White House and his predecessor" (Paul Ryan).

Last cycle around this time, I was explaining why Democrats could win back over 30 House seats and that even with the nature of an incompetent and venal DCCC would win back at least 20. Around the same time, most professional pundits-for-pay thought Democrats had a good chance of doing better than the GOP and could count on 6 or 7 seats. Knowing they were looking at the same maps and polls that I was looking at, I was gobsmacked. By election day, most of the pros were saying the Democrats were going to take over a dozen seats. I was explaining that the 30 I predicted were in the bag and likely to expand, but that the DCCC errors-- catastrophic errors in Texas where they were about to leave 6 seats on the table for no reason except that Ben Ray Lujan doesn't have a functioning brain-- would hold the wins below the 50-60 seats a halfway competent DCCC would be bringing in.

This week, I get the feeling that the pros feel the Democrats could possibly pick up a few seats again-- and, again, they're in the 4, 5 or 6 pickups range. There are at least 50 seats a well-functioning DCCC would be targeting which includes 22 gimmes. Good Democratic candidates are going to win seats, despite an incompetent DCCC. Elections don't happen in DC, they happen in congressional districts around the country.

At the NRCC, hopes are harbored that they will win back control of the House. They claim to be fighting offensively rather than defensively, which is absurd and laughable and makes them seem even more incompetent than the DCCC, a nearly impossible task. Politico reporter Melanie Zanona, wrote that even Republicans are starting to see their 2020 congressional hopes get flushed down the toilet. "A parade of Republican retirements. Red flags about the economy. President Donald Trump’s approval ratings under water. A nail-biter race in a GOP stronghold. House Republicans are grappling with a string of ominous warning signs from over the past month that could spell doom for the party’s chances of clawing back power in 2020, an unsettling prospect for the GOP conference as it prepares for its annual retreat in Baltimore on Thursday... [T]he big picture for Republicans remains dim. Even some of Trump’s top allies on Capitol Hill recognize that it’s going to be an uphill climb in flipping the 18 seats they need to win back the House."

Neo-fascist North Carolina goof-ball, Mark Meadows of the House Freedom Caucus (Congress' very own Nazi Party faction) told her that he sees "an easy path for 12 pickup seats. It’s the last six that will be tough, and that actually runs through California. If we don’t pick up any in California, it will be virtually impossible."

The chance of the Republicans-- with Trump on the top of the ticket, no less-- picking up 6 seats in California is patently absurd. At this point these are most vulnerable seats in the state:

• CA-50- Duncan Hunter, Jr (R)
• CA-22- Devin Nunes (R)
• CA-01- Doug LaMalfa (R)
• CA-39- Gil Cisneros (New Dem)
• CA-08- Paul Cook (R)
• CA-04- Tom McClintock (R)

Not even a lunkhead like Meadows can possibly see 6 GOP pickups from that list. "There are a host of reasons," wrote Zanona, "for Republicans to be rattled by Bishop’s 2-point victory [in North Carolina Tuesday]. The GOP had to go all-out to save the seat in a district that Trump won by 12 points in 2016 and which has been in Republican hands since the 1960s. And Bishop performed poorly in the suburbs, a key battleground where voters fled the GOP last year."

Even more ominous for the party: There are 35 GOP-held House seats that are even less Republican than North Carolina’s 9th District, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

“This is like a five-alarm fire for Republicans in prosperous suburbs,” Dave Wasserman, House editor for the Cook Political Report, said in an interview. “[The GOP] averted disaster, but there’s nothing in the results to persuade House Republicans who are sitting on the fence about running for reelection that they are any likelier to take back the majority.”

A mix of veteran and vulnerable Republicans have called it quits in recent weeks, a sign that GOP lawmakers may be growing less confident about their chances of seizing back the House next year. Some Republicans-- two-thirds of whom have never served in the minority-- would rather call it quits than continue to roam the political wilderness.

Several of the retirements have been especially devastating for the GOP. The party is losing Rep. Will Hurd of Texas, a rising young star and the only black Republican in the House; Rep. Martha Roby of Alabama and Brooks, two of the GOP’s 13 female lawmakers; and longtime Rep. John Shimkus of Illinois, who is roommates with Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA).

Most of the retirements thus far are in ruby-red districts, which Republicans will have no problems keeping. But at least three of the races have become more competitive in the wake of the retirement announcements, and more endangered members could jump ship if they don’t want to duke it out another term-- especially if the GOP’s prospects look bleak in 2020.

GOP leadership, however, has downplayed the recent wave of retirements and maintains they are in a strong position to flip the House.

“We consistently have a lot more turnover than the Democrats, and that’s been the case when we’re in the majority or the minority,” said Scalise. “We have a real opportunity to win the majority back.”

One key factor that could influence races up and down the ballot next year, lawmakers say, is the strength of the economy. The GOP is banking on strong economic growth and low unemployment rates to serve as their calling card in 2020.

But Trump has thrown that strategy into question. The president escalated his trade war last month, slapping a new round of tariffs on China that directly hit consumers for the first time-- though on Wednesday he announced he would delay imposing an additional 5 percent duty on about $250 billion of goods from China. And there have also been signs of a possible economic recession, including a shrink in the manufacturing sector and the so-called inverted yield curve.

If the economy falters, it could pose a real problem for the GOP’s electoral map. Moderate and independent voters who do back Trump, especially in the suburbs, might be less willing to look past the president’s divisive rhetoric-- which, this summer, included racist attacks on four female lawmakers of color.

“The stronger the economy, the better it will be for the president and Republicans,” said GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin of New York. “If the economy is not going well, I guess it depends on how so, which factors of the economy aren’t going well.”

“I don’t foresee the economy going in that kind of a wrong direction between now and next fall,” Zeldin added.

But the public doesn’t seem to have as much confidence in the economy. Six in 10 Americans think a recession is likely in the next year, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll. Trump is also lagging behind his top 2020 Democratic rivals, while his approval ratings have dipped 6 points, down to 38 percent, according to the same survey.

“In both 2018 and last night, House race results have been highly correlated with Trump’s approval ratings,” Wasserman said. “It’s unlikely that [Republicans] win back control of the House either way. Right now, I would put the chances at somewhere between 25 and 35 percent.”

Republicans, however, are holding out hope. They think Democrats could actually rev up Trump’s base if they wind up launching impeachment proceedings or nominate a far-left presidential candidate, which could have down-ballot benefits for the GOP.

“Obviously there are some worries out there, between the slowing global economy and the trade wars,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK). “But I think by and large, our members are in a good mood and ready to fight.”

Blue America is busy identifying great progressive candidates to take back seats held by worthless Republicans who have done nothing but rubber stamp Trump's destructive agenda. We feel especially optimistic this cycle about replacing George Holding with progressive pastor Jason Butler in North Carolina, Fred Upton by Michigan state legislator Jon Hoadley, J.D. Scholten to rid the country of white nationalist Steve King in Iowa and Dana Balter to replace fake "moderate" John Katko in the Syracuse area. Please click on the thermometer on the right to contribute to their campaigns. Dana told us that Katko "voted for tax cuts for the 1% and voted against increasing the minimum wage for workers. I'm fighting for an economy that works for everyone-- living wages, worker protections, and fair tax policy. My opponent is in the pocket of the gun lobby and even opposes universal background checks. I'm fighting for safe communities and schools-- universal background checks, a ban on assault weapons, and government funded research on gun violence. My opponent repeatedly voted to defund Planned Parenthood, insists the debunked Planned Parenthood videos are real, and has said publicly that, if he could, he would vote to overturn Roe v. Wade. I'm fighting to protect and expand women's access to all healthcare, including the full range of reproductive care. My opponent has take more than $1 million from corporate PACs. I'm fighting to get big money out of politics and return power and government to the hands of the people where they belong. Worst of all, my opponent stays silent as this president commits human rights abuses in our name, undermines the very foundations of our democracy, and jeopardizes both our standing and our security around the world. I will never be silent and I will never stop fighting until we have realized the promise of an American that fulfills our greatest aspirations and leaves no one behind."

J.D. Scholten told us that he's "not running a DCCC-style campaign. If I did, I would lose by 20 points. They want me to sit in a room making fundraising calls all day, and attend high-dollar fundraisers at night. That’s not me, and that’s not my district. In rural Iowa, we’ve been left behind by both parties and out-of-touch politicians who put their own personal agendas and the interests of corporations and special interests before our community. That’s why I’m driving my Winnebago RV named Sioux City Sue across all 39 districts in Iowa’s 4th district to directly meet with and listen to the people. Our campaign doesn’t write anyone off-- we’re focused on bringing everyone into our campaign and into our democracy to ensure that no one is left behind. Whether you’re a Republican, Democrat, or an Independent, someone who has voted for Steve King in every election or someone who’s written off politics and politicians, we’re working to earn your trust and your vote."

Hoadley, who was endorsed by the Human Rights campaign yesterday, explained that "Campaigns like ours in Southwest Michigan aren't just a chance to defend a Democratic Congressional majority and turn out the voters who will stop Trump in Michigan, but our campaign is a testament to the fact that our shared values win all across the country.  We need your help now to change the conventional wisdom. We win-- yes, in the Midwest and across the Great Plains-- when we organize, fight, and inspire. We win when people across the country speak up and chip in about races that would otherwise stay off the radar of people using the old playbook. When we all do a little, we'll get a lot done."

And Pastor Jason told us that "As a nation, we need to come to terms with the reality that we are in a moment of urgency. People are dying because of lack of healthcare, kids are being shot in schools, our climate is in crisis, and our economy is rigged for the rich. People have told me that to win in North Carolina I need to be moderate but I disagree. I’m not just running to win-- I’m running for our lives! Right now, we all have to realize we are part of something bigger than ourselves and we are going to have to pull together and sacrifice for the common good. The Republicans are vulnerable and we have a chance to flip districts like mine. But it will not be easy. George Holding literally owns a bank-- no, really. He’s going to use all his resources to win at all costs. He’ll come at us with everything he’s got. But we have to get out of our comfort zones and push bold progressives through the gerrymandered lines of the red south and we have a chance right here in NC-02. I believe we can do it-- but I need your help. And let’s be honest, I need your money. I believe the future of our nation depends upon us giving all we can right now but I know we can rise to the challenge because we are Americans after all. And we always rise to the challenge! I hope I can count on your support."