There's No Grassroots Enthusiasm For Biden-- Just Listless And Ill-Conceived Resignation That He Can Beat Trump

Thursday morning both the NY Times and Washington Post led their political coverage with stories datelined Prole, Iowa, an unincorporated community in Warren County, northeast of Indianola. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary in Warren County-- just south of Des Moines-- pretty badly, 14,773 (54.9%) to 10,371 (38.5%). Last year Kim Reynolds (R) beat Fred Hubbell (D) there 52.8% to 45.1% in the gubernatorial race. And, although IA-03 flipped blue for virtually worthless conservative Democrat Cindy Axne, Warren County voted red (R+10). Warren County is pretty conservative and it sounds like a good place for Biden in a primary battle. But what Katie Gluek was emphasizing in her Times coverage is that the mighty Status Quo Joe polling numbers mask a yawning enthusiasm gap between the back-to-normalcy candidate and the candidates with a vision for America's future. Glueck asserts that "there are signs of a disconnect between his relatively rosy poll numbers and excitement for his campaign on the ground here, in the state that begins the presidential nominating process.

In conversations with county chairs, party strategists and dozens of voters this week at Mr. Biden’s events, many Democrats in Iowa described a case for Mr. Biden, the former vice president, that reflected shades of the one his wife, Jill Biden, bluntly sketched out on Monday. “You may like another candidate better, but you have to look at who is going to win,” she said, citing Mr. Biden’s consistent lead in early surveys.

The first ad of Mr. Biden’s campaign, released this week in Iowa, flashed some of his positive poll results against Mr. Trump on screen, and voter after voter cited those numbers in outlining their support for him, saying that defeating the president was their most urgent priority.

That stands in stark contrast to the way voters explain their support for candidates like Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who drew 12,000 people to an event this week in Minnesota, Iowa’s northern neighbor, or Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who also draws large crowds and maintains a core base of die-hard fans.

...[T]he risks of a campaign argument that is heavily reliant on strong poll numbers, which can be fickle in a tumultuous election, were on vivid display throughout Mr. Biden’s trip to Iowa, as voters repeatedly emphasized that their support for him was closely linked to what they perceived as his strength against Mr. Trump.

It’s a case they make even as polls have shown several other candidates, namely Mr. Sanders, Ms. Warren and Senator Kamala Harris of California, running strongly against Mr. Trump, and as strategists caution that such theoretical matchups are hardly predictive of an election that’s more than a year away. The polls at this early stage are also partly a reflection of a candidate’s name recognition.

...A Monmouth University poll from this month showed Mr. Biden leading with the support of 28 percent of likely Iowa caucusgoers-- virtually unchanged from the same poll’s results from April.

But Patrick Murray, the director of Monmouth’s Polling Institute, who recently spent time in Iowa, said those numbers did not give the full picture of Mr. Biden’s support in the state.

“I did not meet one Biden voter who was in any way, shape or form excited about voting for Biden,” Mr. Murray said. “They feel that they have to vote for Joe Biden as the centrist candidate, to keep somebody from the left who they feel is unelectable from getting the nomination.”

And JoAnn Hardy, the Democratic chairwoman of Cerro Gordo County, Iowa, where most of the Democratic candidates recently attended the gathering known as the Wing Ding dinner, attributed Mr. Biden’s lead in part to simply being well-known.

“He’s doing O.K., but I think a lot of his initial strength was name recognition,” she said. “As the voters get to meet the other candidates, he may be surpassed soon. I would not be surprised.”

Asked who was poised to do that, she replied: “Elizabeth Warren has the most incredible organization in this state. I could see it being Warren.”

Some of Mr. Biden’s allies view Ms. Warren as his most significant threat in Iowa for now, aware of the extensive organization she built early, her surge in the Monmouth poll and other polls here this summer, and her ability to connect with progressives who traditionally play an important role in the caucuses.

But representatives for the Biden campaign argued that several candidates have risen this summer, only to see their numbers fall back down to earth. His position as poll-leader has been steady up to this point, they stress, though his favorability rating has dipped since he re-entered the political arena, and his advantage has ebbed in some early-state polls.

“We reject the premise that the only reason Biden is doing well in the polls is because of name recognition,” said T.J. Ducklo, Mr. Biden’s national press secretary. “Voters have genuine affection for Joe Biden. They know him and his character, which is why their support for him has been so durable in the face of relentless attacks by all of his primary opponents.”

Yet there have also been self-inflicted controversies. His trip to Iowa earlier this month was marred by multiple gaffes, a dynamic that dominated coverage of the visit and gave some Democrats here pause.

Matt Viser was also in Prole, also writing about Biden playing the electability card. "His entire campaign apparatus have put an electability argument front and center this week in an attempt to dispel any lingering concerns among Democrats about his ideology, his age or his verbal mistakes," wrote Viser. "As the Democratic primary campaign trundles on, Biden is winning polite applause from audiences that respect him but clearly are not as fired up by his presence as are crowds for other candidates. He has made verbal miscues nearly daily as his more disciplined opponents hew closely to their chosen messages. And yet his standing atop the polls as the candidate seen as most able to defeat Trump-- including in key states needed to secure the presidency-- has been an enduring aspect of an otherwise volatile primary contest."

That's certainly the narrative the corporate media is pushing-- and relentlessly so. Iowa, a caucus state, can't be polled accurately. New Hampshire, the first state with a primary, can be. And Bernie is beating Biden there-- with Warren nipping at his heals and likely to overtake him and his message less campaign. The most recent poll is by highly regarded non-partisan Gravis Marketing:

Yesterday, Emerson released polling for Colorado. Despite the corporate media's persistent, unrelenting anti-Bernie narrative, Bernie is beating Biden there too. What the poll shows is that Bernie is ahead of Status Quo Joe, albeit narrowly:

And both Bernie and Biden-- as well as all the Democrats still considered serious contenders-- are beating Trump in one-on-one matchups in Colorado-- Bernie and Biden by a full 10 points each:

The establishment in DC and in states is completely in the bag for Biden. Their own access to power and bribes depends on it. Take Florida, which has one of the very worse Democratic state parties anywhere in the country. It defines failure on every level-- unable to elect Democrats statewide in a 50/50 state, a pathetic and irrelevant rump in the state legislature and horrifyingly corrupt beyond reason. Democrats would do better in Florida is the Florida Democratic Party ceased to exist. It's almost as bad as the Ohio Democratic Party. Let's turn to a piece Anthony Man wrote for the Sun Sentinel this week, No Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. We need a moderate, South Florida Democrats tell their party., which demonstrates exactly what I'm talking about. Keep in mind, after she was exposed stealing the nomination for Hillary and fired as DNC chair, Debbie Wasserman Schultz largely disappeared from national politics. But in Florida, she still walks among us. "A group of prominent current and former elected officials in Broward County," wrote Man, "is warning the Democratic Party that defeating President Donald Trump requires nominating a candidate who can appeal to a broad swath of the electorate-- not one of the progressives running far to the left. The group, which is calling itself the Real Solutions Caucus, said defeating Trump is the overriding goal for 2020. It sees 10 candidates-- including former Vice President Joe Biden-- as best equipped to appeal to swing voters in a handful of states that will decide the election.Pointedly not on the list: the two leading progressive presidential candidates, U.S. Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont." The stench of Wasserman Schultz, one of the most corrupt on Congress' New Dems-- and the queen of Broward County Democrats-- is all pervasive in this anti-progressive approach.

Although Sanders and Warren consistently poll in second and third place behind Biden and together have the support of one-third of Democratic primary voters, members of the Real Solutions Caucus fear they are too far to the left, and nominating one of them increases the chances of a Trump victory.

“This election will be decided in a handful of swing states, each with significant groups of swing voters,” the caucus wrote in a “statement of principles” it plans to release Tuesday. “We intend to encourage candidates to adopt national positions that will appeal to swing voters in swing states, and we intend to encourage Democratic voters to support candidates that adopt these positions.”

The chairman of the group is Steve Geller, a Broward County commissioner and former Florida Senate Democratic leader. The other members of the steering committee are County Commissioners Mark Bogen and Tim Ryan, School Board member Patricia Good, former county Property Appraiser Lori Parrish, former Fort Lauderdale Mayor Jack Seiler and state Sen. Perry Thurston, who is also a former Florida House Democratic leader. [More succinctly: Team Wasserman Schultz and a bunch of hacks whose conservative policies and agenda has kept Florida Democrats in a minority position statewide.]

The group, which currently has 26 members, is coming down squarely on one side of a debate that comes up in every election cycle-- but is particularly pronounced as Democrats try to figure out who they should nominate to challenge Trump.

One theory is that the best way to win is by running moderate-centrist candidates in hopes of appealing to middle of the road voters. The other theory is that it’s better to nominate a liberal candidate who can generate excitement among the party’s base and propel the candidate to victory in November.

“It is our judgment that the base has already been energized by Donald Trump,” Geller said in an interview. While appealing to the Democratic Party’s base voters is important, Geller said caucus members believe that swing voters will decide the election because of the importance of a handful of states in the Electoral College.

“This is not a national election. You can pile up a 5 million vote majority in California, a 3 million vote majority in New York, and if you lose by 50,000 votes in Pennsylvania or Michigan, it has the same impact,” Geller said.

The forever Florida state legislature, complements of the so-called "Real Solutions Caucus" and their brilliant strategies. The GOP should be paying them

These people know how to do one thing and one thing only: lose elections by turning off the base with their overly cautious and uninspiring approach. Of course they don't want agents of change like Bernie and Elizabeth Warren. They literally prefer candidates Democratic voters have already shown they are uninterested in like conservatives Michael Bennet (CO with a 0.2% polling average), Steve Bullock (MT with a 0.8% polling average) and Amy Klobuchar (MN with a 1.4% polling average). "Even though many on the list haven’t gotten much traction," write Man, "Geller said even Bennet and Bullock, who are averaging less than 1% in polls, 'showed promise. We think that the candidates that we mentioned have a better chance of winning the swing voters in the swing states,' Geller said. Geller’s brother, Joe Geller, a state representative whose district covers southeast Broward and northeast Miami-Dade County, is a prominent supporter of Biden.

Melissa Ward-Peterson, who is an active volunteer in the Warren campaign, said she found the Real Solutions Caucus’s position “incredibly disappointing," and what looks like the party establishment acting as gatekeepers is the kind of thing that turns off many people. "It’s disappointing to have these leaders say, ‘We know what’s best.’”

Ward-Peterson, who is recording secretary of the Broward Democratic Party, said she was speaking for herself, not in her role as party officer.

Ward-Peterson said she has family members who are swing voters, said it’s also a mistake to assume a progressive candidate would have a harder time winning the general election than one of the moderates. “They are moved by someone with conviction and someone who’s consistent and stands up for what they believe,” she said. “Those are voters who appreciate no-B.S. candidates and are going to be looking for someone who has a consistent message and a consistent voice.”

Mitchell Stollberg, chairman of Broward Progressive Democrats of America, chairman of the Broward chapter of the group Our Revolution, and an active Sanders supporter, said the Democrats pushing for a moderate-centrist are “short sighted. None of those people can beat Trump.”

He doesn’t buy the analysis that moderate, swing voters are the bloc that Democrats needs to cater to.

“They’re full of crap,” Stollberg said. “As far as I’m concerned, the party needs to move to the left. The progressive movement is larger than ever before.”

He said average voters support key elements of Sanders’ platform, such as a Medicare for All government health program. “Don’t talk to me about private insurance. It’s immoral,” he said.

...The 26 members of the Real Solutions Caucus describe themselves as “patriotic Americans who support the armed forces and veterans, capitalism, women’s rights, a well-funded public education system and our ally Israel.”

Now listen to someone who knows what they're talking about, Rachel Bitecofer, who was on MSNBC with centrist Lawrence O'Donnell a couple of times this week: