Pick Yer Pollster

This morning, Trump/Pence2020 sent out the regular e-mail that all Republican candidates have been doing multiple-- sometimes weekly-- versions of this cycle:

It’s been three months since Mueller published his report which found NO COLLUSION and totally EXONERATED President Trump, but Democrats continue to waste more of YOUR money to push their anti-Trump agenda.

How many times will President Trump being completely exonerated before this witch hunt ends?

Democrats know that their agenda of big government SOCIALISM is so unpopular with the American people that they’ve had to resort to endless lies and WITCH HUNTS to try to take down President Trump.

Someone sounds a little guilty and paranoid? CNN reported today that Trump himself has been more irritated than anxious ahead of the testimony. "Trump has spent the last several days on the phone and in conversation with aides and allies discussing Mueller's upcoming testimony, CNN has learned. Instead of anxiety, the President has expressed irritation at having to watch the man who has shadowed his presidency sit down before two congressional committees Wednesday. Trump has been quizzing people around him about what they expect while complaining that Democrats will never let the Russia investigation go." He's babbling to anyone who gets near him about "the Russian witch hunt." No doubt he'd like to be spending his time disrupting the Democratic primary and working to manipulate Democrats into nominating Biden, the only Democrat he will be able to trounce.

Earlier today the most accurate of the 2020 polling firms, Change Research, released a post debate poll in the first 3 states that will be voting in 2020-- Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Bad news for Trump: Biden has lost his lead. After the debate Kamala Harris went up 12 points and Biden went down 11. Bernie and Warren lead with 19% each across the 3 states.

It's still very tight though, with Biden just a point behind the two frontrunners, Kamala point behind him and McKinsey Pete holding in there. New Hampshire Democratic primary voters still prefer Bernie, who's at 26% with Warren catching up (24%). McKinsey Pete is in 3rd place with 14%.

An unscientific straw poll among DFA members is interesting because it measures activists who are likely following the election far more closely than the general public. Only 9 of the candidates polled above 1%. This chart shows which issues the backers of each candidate say are most important to them.

Just looking a voters' prioritized issues, shows a very progressive electorate, one that Joe Biden is not even remotely connected to. And that fits other recent polling that shows that the more Democrats study the primary, the less likely they are to back Biden. When Biden first announced he was running in early May, the Real Clear Politics polling average showed him with 41.4%. It's been all downhill since then and he hit 26.0% in early July. Many people think he'll be lucky to still be in the 20s after the July 30 debate.