3 Republicans Just Announced They're Retiring From Congress But Just One Of The Districts Is Even Remotely Winnable

There was no Blue Wave in 2018-- the Democrats were basically offering runny gruel. Instead there was a massive anti-Trump/anti-red wave. Unless the Democrats wind up nominating Bernie-- better yet Bernie + Elizabeth Warren-- there will be no Blue Wave in 2020 either. Even if the Democrats nominate the worst possible candidate-- Status Quo Joe, setting up the contest between 2 profoundly evil evils that Trump is so eager for-- there will still be another massive, perhaps more massive, anti-Trump/anti-red wave, a true tsunami this time. The GOP explains what happened last cycle not in terms of waves or Trump's toxicity, but whines how there were too many retirements for them to deal with. There's some truth to that, but a better way too look at the retirements is to understand how Trump's toxicity helped bring many of those retirements on. Look at the 2018 cycle like this:

• Turnout was the highest for a midterm election in more than a century (1914), with over half the electorate casting ballots.
• The Democrats won/Republicans lost the popular vote 60,572,245 (53.4%) to 50,861,970 (44.8%)-- a margin of 8.6%, the largest margin on record for a House majority party switch
• The Republicans lost 42 or 43 seats (NC-09, nearly a year later is still undecided after the GOP was caught trying to steal the election), their biggest loss since Nixon was thrown out of office after Watergate
• Republicans lost a net of 7 seats in California, 4 seats in Pennsylvania and 4 in New Jersey, 3 each in New York and Virginia, 2 each in Iowa, Florida, Texas, Michigan, Illinois and one seat in Utah, New Mexico, Washington, Kansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Maine, Arizona, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Colorado.
• 13 Republicans retired or left the House to run for other offices in districts that were subsequently won by Democrats

But however the NRCC wants to paint it, 30 Republican incumbents were beaten by Democrats, while not one single Democratic incumbent was beaten by a Republican. Yes, the fact that Dave Trott (MI), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL), Charlie Dent (PA), Dave Reichert (WA), Ed Royce (CA), Darrell Issa (CA), Frank LoBiondo INJ), Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ), Pat Meehan (PA), Steve Pearce (NM), Martha McSally (AZ), Ryan Costello (PA) and Mark Sanford (SC) left open seats that Democrats won was a very big deal, but

a- many of them retired because they knew they had next to zero chance to be reelected;

and

b-it doesn't explain the 30 incumbents who lost.

Now GOP retirement season has kicked off with a bang. Last week alone, 3 Republicans announced their premature retirements, at least 2 of whom would certainly have been reelected.Five Republicans-- Bradley Byrne (AL), Rob Woodall (GA), Susan Brooks (IN), Greg Gianforte (MT) and Rob Bishop (UT)-- had already beaten them to the punch.

Paul Mitchell, basically can't stand Trump and what he's done to American politics. So, after just 2 terms, he's retiring from Congress. He didn't blame Trump per se; he blamed the "rhetoric and vitriol" in DC. Before Congress, Mitchell had been a very right-wing member of the Michigan state legislature. MI-10, north of Detroit, is a thumb-like protrusion into Lake Huron. About half the voters come from the northern part of suburban Macomb County. The county used to be the bluest suburban county in America. In 2016, it was the Trumpiest county in Michigan. The PVI is R+13 and although Obama almost won in 2008 (50-48%), Trump beat Hillary 63.8% to 31.6%. (Bernie won the district in the primary and beat Hillary in 5 of the 6 counties, and essentially tying her in the 6th.)

There are at least 8 Republicans talking about jumping into the race. The only Democrat running so far is Kelly Noland, an Army veteran and a nurse who supports Medicare-for-All-- which means the DCCC will likely recruit someone to run against her.

As of the June 30 FEC reporting deadline Mitchell had raised only $232,501, and Noland hasn't raised the $5,000 that would have triggered a report.

Friday Martha Roby announced she's had enough of Congress. AL-02 is another prohibitively red district, gerrymandered so that as many African Americans living in Montgomery are dumped into AL-07 (Alabama's one black district). The PVI is R+16 and Trump's 64.9% of the district's vote was stronger than either McCain's or Romney's. The anti-red wave barely lapped around the edges of the district last year. Incumbent Martha Roby was reelected 138,879 (61.5%) to 86,931 (38.5%). Although Roby lost Montgomery County, the biggest in the district, and two tiny rural counties, Conecuh and Bullock, she won the 12 other counties in the district-- massively (except by Barbour, which she won by the skin of her teeth).

Roby was no fan of Trump's and didn't vote for him in 2016. After the Access Hollywood pussy-grabbing escapade was revealed, she said, "Trump’s behavior makes him unacceptable as a candidate for president, and I won’t vote for him." His fans refused to vote for her in 2016 but they were back in the saddle last year after she showed them that she was basically another garden variety Trump enabler.

Alabama is likely to lose a seat after the 2020 election and AL-02 will surely be impacted. So far there are 4 Republicans talking about running: Bobby Bright, a former Blue Dog Democrat who took the logical step that all Blue Dogs eventually take and hopped the fence to become a fascist/Republican; crackpot state Senator Clyde Chambliss of Prattville; far right state Rep. Will Dismukes ad a lunatic fringe former state Rep, Barry Moore, who will fight anyone who claims he endorsed Trump before Moore did. Roby beat Moore and Bright in the 2018 primary.

The third seat-- the one that the DCCC was already targeting-- is TX-22, from which Pete Olson announced his retirement on Thursday. Although an R+10 PVI normally looks like too steep a hill for a Democrat to climb, Hillary had improved on Obama's 2008 and 2012 score by around 8 points and the Houston suburb's hostility towards Trump was making the district competitive. When Olson was first elected the district was over 60% white. The demographic shift has been fast and now just 42.9% of his constituents are white. That made Olson's 96.2% Trump adhesion score problematic. Olson's win number last year was just 51.4%. He was forced to spend $1,921,992 (more than he raised) to hold onto his seat as newcomer Sri Kulkarni (D) threw $1,539,576 into his campaign. Neither the DCCC nor the NRCC spent any money in the district. This year it looked like a lot of money is being set aside for this district (by both party committees), which starts the suburbs south of Houston, includes Pearland and Alvin and then twists west to Sugar Land, Brazos Bend State Park, past Rosenberg and almost as far as East Bernard in Wharton County. Olson had already raised $635,183 and spent $221,320 this year and Kulkarni had raised $415,249 and spent nearly $100,000. Both Olson and Kulkarni have primary opponents.

There are already half a dozen Republicans looking at the seat. Kulkarni and 2 other Democrats are already campaigning. Local KHOU confirmed that political insiders think TX-22 "could change parties... The traditionally conservative district has gotten a lot more competitive in recent years. Rep. Olson’s margin of victory dropped from just under 19 points in 2016 to within five points in 2018, the same year Fort Bend County went blue."

KHOU 11 political analyst Bob Stein said the best chance for a switch in party control is always an open seat.

“My sense is (Rep. Olson) would have been ‘primaried,' ‘Tea-Partied,’” Stein said. “What you’re seeing here is really the last of the old guard. Pete Olson was not a strong conservative but held the line. His legislative record was modest.

Olson had already been on the 2020 DCCC retirement watch list-- as had been Rob Woodall (GA) and Susan Brooks (IN), each of whom has announced their retirements. Still left on their list:

• Don Young (AK)
• David Schweikert (AZ)
• Druncan Hunter (CA)
• Ross Spano (FL)
• Vern Buchanan (FL)
• Fred Upton (MI)
• Ann Wagner (MO)
• Chris Smith (NJ)
• Peter King (NY)
• John Katko (NY)
• Chris Collins (NY)
• Steve Chabot (OH)
• Mike McCaul (TX)
• Kenny Marchant (TX)
• John Carter (TX)
• Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA)

Starting The Week With Another Republican Leaving Congress?

I can't say I was ever a fan of Dan Coats, the conservative Indiana politician, but as a Director of National Intelligence, he was considerably better than what anyone has a right to expect from Trump. And Trump hates him and has been trying to get him to resign for months. By announcing he would be replacing him with congressional crackpot John Ratcliffe (R-TX), Trump gave him no choice.

Yesterday Ratcliffe was on Fox with Maria Bartoromo to give Trump another public blow-job, this time barking that he trusts Barr to lock up Obama and Hillary-- though not naming them-- and any other Trump enemies.

It will be a pleasure to have Ratcliffe out of Congress, but he represents one of the most backward districts in America, so don't expect the seat, TX-04, to flip blue. The PVI is R+28 and Trump beat Hillary 75.4% to 21.8%, her third worst performance in Texas. The godforsaken district is in the northeast corner of the state, tucked in between Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana and Louie Gohmert's district. It's a real hellhole, 73% white, poorly educated (48% high school or less), 45% rural, fairly poor.

Ratcliffe was elected with no opposition although in that district it's the primary that determines the member, not the general election. In 2014, he primaried Ralph Hall, the oldest member of Congress (91) and beat him in a runoff, in part by claiming that he would oppose reelecting Boehner speaker. He voted for Boehner anyway.

Last year he had his first Democratic opponent, Catherine Krantz, who he beat 75.7% to 23.0%. Ratcliffe raised $1,072,295 to Krantz's $29,171. Bowie, Camp, Cass, Delta, Fannin, Franklin, Grayson, Hopkins, Hunt, Lamar, Marion, Morris, Rains, Red River, Rockwall, and Titus counties along with areas of Collin and Upshur counties make up the district. None of them offer Democrats even a whiff of a hope to build a base. The least Republican county is tiny Morris where the PVI is "only" 42%. So far no one has mentioned running against Ratcliffe.

Here's Trump's favorite Republican questioning Mueller: