The Democratic Debates

Establishment vs Bernie by Nancy Ohanian

I would love to know the motivations behind the decisions of who went where but unless someone tells, it's a waste of time to speculate. The DNC insists it was all random. You believe them? The women candidates are equally divided and the African-American candidates are as well. But it's the political motivations I'd rather see. First though, here's each night's line-up, along with the RealClearPolitics national polling average from this morning:

Wednesday, June 26:

• Elizabeth Warren (11.8)
• Beto (3.5)
• Cory Booker (2.3)
• Amy Klobuchar (1.0)
• Jay Inslee (0.5)
• Julian Castro (0.5)
• Tim Ryan (0.5)
• Tulsi (0.3)
• Bill de Blasio (0.3)
• John Delaney (0.3)

And Thursday, June 27

• Status Quo Joe (32.3)
• Bernie (16.5)
• McKinsey Pete (7.8)
• Kamala (6.3)
• Michael Bennet (0.8)
• Andrew Yang (0.8)
• Gillibrand (0.5)
• Frackenlooper (0.5)
• Marianne Williamson (0.3)
• Eric Swalwell (0.3)

Night one looks almost like a one-woman show, with Elizabeth Warren being the person with the most to talk about and no one likely to attack her or her ideas. Beto's campaign for student body president is sure to be... energetic. Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar are slick campaigners with nothing worth a hill of beans to say and Jay Inslee has an important case to make so there's that. Bets case scenario would be Delaney saying something so grotesque that even he realizes it's time to pay back what's ever left of the $17 million he loaned his campaign and go find a job.

The second night may be more dramatic since Frackenlooper is a vicious and aggressive attack dog who will surely be looking to bite Bernie and may also think-- he's also delusional-- that it's time to attack Biden so he can take over the conservative lane. I'm guessing Bennet will act as Biden's wing man. The canned, well-phrased McKinsey prescriptions might suck some interest out of the room-- at least in houses where viewers haven't been following the candidates. Kamala will have a chance to regain her footing as a top tier candidate. Marianne Williamson has had more practice speaking to live audiences than anyone else so she may offer the night's biggest surprise. Hopefully this will be the last anyone ever hears of Frackenlooper, although it would be so awesome if he brings some fracking liquid with him and drinks it on the stage.

For all his McKinsey consultant training, the stupidest pre-debate e-mail I've seen from a candidate came from Pete: "Please consider making a donation today to make sure we're as strong as we can be heading into the debate."

Today Change Research-- this year's best polling firm-- released their first poll of Minnesota Democrats. Elizabeth Warren, Status Quo Joe and Bernie are all bunch up top within a point of each other, essentially tied within the margin of error. The key takeaways though were:

• Amy Klobuchar is in 4th place in her own state
• Warren leads among women
• Bernie leads-- massively-- among men
• Bernie leads among voters between 18 and 49
• The elderly support Status Quo Joe

Last night Bill Maher, albeit mostly lamely, reminded everyone what's at stake: