With Susan Brooks Suddenly Retiring, Is IN-05 Seriously Winnable?

IN-05 is a red (R+9) central Indiana congressional district north of Indianapolis. If the Republicans can't win here, they'll have to pack their bags and move to Russia. Except for the slice of Marion County (Indianapolis) in the district, every county is deep red. Last year incumbent congresswoman Susan Brooks was reelected 180,035 (56.8%) to 137,142 (43.2%), safe... but her worst showing ever. In 2016 Trump won the district 53.1% to 41.3%. He isn't especially popular there but Hillary was completely wrong for the district. Bernie beat her, heavily in the primary. Brooks was first elected in 2012, replacing far right crackpot Dan Burton. She won with 73% and was reelected with 65% in 2014 and 62% in 2016. Yesterday she suddenly announced that she's not running again next year-- and the DCCC is already targeting the district.

This came as a big shock for McCarthy, since Brooks is the head of recruitment for the NRCC. She's member of the Energy and Commerce Committee, a plum assignment that has helped her raise lots of money she didn't need for reelection campaigns and could use for ladder climbing inside the party. Last cycle, she raised $1,909,690 and ended the campaign with $864,926 on hand.

Brooks is considered a mainstream Republican-- as is the largely suburban district-- and she gets primaries from the right. This cycle, ex-state Senator Mike Delph, a homophobic psychopath and vicious racist, who was defeated last year for reelection by openly gay Democrat J.D. Ford, was already challenging her. Two Democrats are also contesting the seat, anti-Choice Democrat Jennifer Christie and former state Rep. Christina Hale.

Brooks, who has been an advocate for recruiting more women to run for Congress, will stay on as NRCC recruitment chair for the rest of the cycle. She says that without having to worry about her own reelection, can can be more useful at the NRCC.

For 2020, Democrats had put Brooks on their “retirement watch list.” They see her district, which includes the wealthy northern Indianapolis suburban areas, as potentially flippable as Republican support has eroded in some suburban areas under President Donald Trump.

But Brooks insists Indiana’s 5th District, which she carried by nearly 14 points as Republicans lost the House in November, will remain in GOP hands with or without her.

So is she leaving because it’s no fun being in the minority? Brooks points to legislation she’s been working on with Democrats, including a bill reauthorizing funding for health emergency programs that is awaiting the president’s signature.

Is she frustrated with the party’s support for female candidates after voters sent the lowest number of GOP women to the House in a quarter-century? Brooks said she feels good about the ongoing efforts to change that.

Is she dissatisfied with the leader of the party? Brooks said she has a "fine relationship" with Trump and an “outstanding relationship” with Vice President Mike Pence-- her former law school classmate.

“Indiana is going to be very strong for the president and vice president in the 2020 cycle,” she said.

I guess that depends who the Democrats nominate-- a lesser of two evils kind of candidate or someone offering Indianans something worth fighting for. That goes for a presidential candidate and, of course, for the candidate who will try to win Brooks' seat. If Cheri Bustos decides to put up a Republican-lite candidate, it's not likely the Democrats will take the district. After all, there is a reason why Bernie bested Hillary among the voters there in 2016.

• Hamilton-- Bernie- 54.2%, Hillary- 45.8%
• Marion-- Hillary- 50.4%, Bernie- 49.6%
• Madison-- Bernie- 51.9%, Hillary- 48.1%
• Grant-- Bernie- 50.3%, Hillary- 49.7%
• Boone-- Bernie- 55.2%, Hillary- 44.8%
• Tipton-- Bernie- 51.9%, Hillary- 48.1%
• Howard-- Bernie- 58.1%, Hillary- 41.9%
• Blackford-- Bernie- 51.0%, Hillary- 49.0%