Interim Report Card For Our Freshman Members

It's still early; there haven't been that many votes in the House. Ranking and rating could change-- in fact, it's a sure bet that they will. But among the freshman class, the split is becoming apparent. As of today, there are 2 dozen freshmen whose voting records Progressive Punch has rated "A" (and who have 100% crucial vote scores) and 23 who voting records Progressive Punch has rated "F." Before we look at who has the "A"s and who has the "F"s, let's get an idea about how ProgressivePunch determines the ratings

. Their algorithm uses the votes of a panel of 33 proven progressives to come up with progressive scores by taking ANY VOTE in which a majority of those 33 progressives voted in opposition to a majority of the Republican caucus and have that vote qualify for the database. That way non-ideological votes such as National Groundhog Day: 429-0 with 6 absences, do not qualify for the database. ANY vote in which a majority of progressives in the progressive cohort votes against a majority of Republicans qualifies for the database and is included in the overall % scores.

These are the 33 progressives currently being used. (After 100 votes are taken super-progressive freshmen like AOC, Rashida Tlaib, Ilham Omar, Ayanna Pressley and Joe Neguse are likely to be added to the cohort, perhaps replacing less progressive members like Nancy Pelosi, Donald Payne and Linda Sánchez.) Anyway, here's the current list:

• Karen Bass (CA)
• Judy Chu (CA)
• Katherine Clark (MA)
• Yvette Clarke (NY)
• Bonnie Watson Coleman (NJ)
• Danny Davis (IL)
• Mark DeSaulnier (CA)
• Adriano Espaillat (CA)
• Jimmy Gomez (CA)
• Raúl Grijalva (AZ)
• Jared Huffman (CA)
• Pramila Jayapal (WA)
• Hakeem Jeffries (NY)
• Ro Khanna (CA)
• Barbara Lee (CA)
• John Lewis (GA)
• Alan Lowenthal (CA)
• Jim McGovern (MA)
• Gwen Moore (WI)
• Jerry Nadler (NY)
• Grace Napolitano (CA)
• Donald Payne (NJ)
• Nancy Pelosi (CA)
• Chellie Pingree (ME)
• Mark Pocan (WI)
• Jamie Raskin (MD)
• Lucille Roybal-Allard (CA)
• Linda Sánchez (CA)
• Jan Schakowsky (IL)
• José Serrano (NY)
• Mark Takano (CA)
• Nydia Velázquez (NY)
• Maxine Waters (CA)

Here at DWT we exclusively use crucial votes scores, which Progressive Punch defines as close votes-- "where were you when we needed you" votes. These is how they describe it: "The Crucial Votes % categories include all roll call votes where the margin between yes votes and no votes was narrow and could have been changed by a small group of Democrats voting differently. Narrow margins are defined as votes in which the winning side came out ahead by 20 votes or fewer in the House (so a shift of 10 votes from one side to the other would have changed the result) or by 6 votes or fewer in the Senate (so a shift of 3 votes from one side to the other would have changed the result)."

With the Democrats back in control of the House this session, ProgressivePunch classifies as Crucial any vote in which the progressive side was on the losing side, in addition to all close votes as defined above. "Crucial" votes are votes in which there was strong progressive cohesion and at the same time a significant defection on the part of more conservative Democrats to the Republicans.

The scores do not take into account anything other than votes. It doesn't matter, for example, the Pramila Jayapal wrote and introduced the new Medicare For All Act or that some people co-sponsored it and others didn't. Nor are examples of leadership, courageousness, Twitter abilities or any other non-vote factors part of the scores. That said, so far this cycle, these are the freshmen with perfect 100% scores, all of whom are obviously rated "A."

• Sean Casten (IL)
• T.J. Cox (CA)
• Madeleine Dean (PA)
• Veronica Escobar (TX)
• Lizzie Fletcher (TX)
• Chuy Garcia (IL)
• Sylvia Garcia (TX)
• Debra Haaland (NM)
• Jahana Hayes (CT)
• Andy Levin (MI)
• Mike Levin (CA)
• Tom Malinowski (NJ)
• Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL)
• Joe Neguse (CO)
• AOC (NY)
• Ilhan Omar (MN)
• Ayanna Pressley (MA)
• Mary Gay Scanlon (PA)
• Donna Shalala (FL)
• Greg Stanton (AZ)
• Rashida Tlaib (MI)
• Lori Trahan (MA)
• David Trone (MD)
• Lauren Underwood (IL)

Eventually, once the tough votes start, no one will be left with 100% scores. The dozen closest to perfect lifetime scores among non-freshmen-- all of whom have 100% so far this year-- are:

• Jamie Raskin (MD)- 99.34
• Mark Pocan (WI)- 98.85
• Mark DeSaulnier (CA)- 98.36
• Adriano Espaillat (NY)- 98.04
• Ro Khanna (CA)- 97.37
• Katherine Clark (MA)- 97.02
• Judy Chu (CA)- 96.90
• Pramila Jayapal (WA)- 96.73
• Jim McGovern (MA)- 96.70
• Jan Schakowsky (IL)- 96.56
• Raul Grijalva (AZ)- 96.52
• Yvette Clarke (NY)- 95.88

It's worth mentioning that a handful of freshmen have also earned "A"s but don't have perfect scores: Joe Morelle (NY), Susan Wild (PA), Lucy McBath (GA), Chris Pappas (NH) and Haley Stevens (MI). I doubt many of the freshmen with perfect scores today will even have "A" ratings by the end of the year. In my opinion, the likeliest to start sinking the soonest are Casten, Cox, Fletcher, Malinowski, Mucarsel-Powell, Shalala, Stanton, Trahan, Trone and Underwood. These are the freshmen in the middle: 
• Gil Cisneros (New Dem-CA)- B
• Jason Crow (New Dem- CO)- B
• Katie Hill (New Dem-CA)- B
• Dean Phillips (New Dem-MN)- B
• Jennifer Wexton (New Dem-VA)- B
• Colin Allred (New Dem-TX)- B
• Josh Harder (New Dem-CA)- B
• Angie Craig (New Dem-MN)- D

On the other end of the spectrum, these are the worst voters so far, each whom has earned an "F."

• Chrissy Houlahan (New Dem-PA)
• Katie Porter (D-CA)
• Harley Rouda (New Dem-CA)
• Kim Schrier (New Dem-WA)
• Steven Horsford (New Dem-NV)
• Ed Case (Blue Dog-HI)
• Andy Kim (D-NJ)
• Mikie Sherrill (Blue Dog-NJ)
• Elissa Slotkin (New Dem-MI)
• Abigail Spanberger (Blue Dog-VA)
• Cindy Axne (New Dem-IA)
• Anthony Brindisi (Blue Dog-NY)
• Sharice Davids (New Dem-KS)
• Abby Finkenauer (D-IA)
• Jared Golden (D-ME)
• Elaine Luria (New Dem-VA)
• Max Rose (Blue Dog-NY)
• Xochitl Torres Small (Blue Dog-NM)
• Antonio Delgado (D-NY)
• Kendra Horn (Blue Dog-OK)
• Ben McAdams (Blue Dog-UT)
• Joe Cunningham (Blue Dog-SC)
• Jeff Van Drew (Blue Dog-NJ)

I think some of these members will throw off the "F"s and start voting more progressively as time goes on, particularly Katie Porter, Andy Kim, and Jared Golden and possibly Abby Finkenauer, Antonio Delgado, and Kim Schrier. We'll see how well I'm prognosticating in about a year. Unlikely to get any better are hardcore reactionaries Jeff Van Drew and Joe Cunningham, the worst Democrats in the House. They have identical voting records-- which happen to be worse than 3 Republicans already! The DCCC will spend immense amounts of money this cycle to save their seats, trying to persuade Democrats in South Carolina and New Jersey that these two examples of less of two evils is who they should waste their votes on in 2020.

Joe and Jeff