Democratic Establishment Clowns Already Giving Up On Ohio, Iowa And Texas?

The top Democratic Party establishment SuperPAC, Priorities USA, has decided that Ohio, Iowa and Texas will not be target states for 2020. What a dumb-ass move! Their new report lists 15 states and puts them in prioritization categories. The top priorities will be Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire and Nevada. Next down are Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. That's followed by Minnesota, Virginia and Colorado as Democratic "watch states" and Iowa, Ohio and Texas as Republican "watch states."

They plan to invest $100 in an early engagement program in Wisconsin, Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan, which they will expand to include New Hampshire, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. They have no plans for Texas (38 electoral votes and half a dozen vulnerable House seats and a possible vulnerable Senate seat), Ohio (18 electoral votes) or Iowa (6 electoral votes).

Seth Richardson, reporting for the Cleveland Plain Dealer, wrote that "Ohio Democrats, including Ohio Democratic Party Chairman David Pepper, have scoffed at the idea of Ohio no longer being a prominent swing state-- even as Republicans have dominated them in the past decade." Obama won Ohio both times he ran-- 51.5% to 46.9% in 2008 and 50.7% to 47.7% in 2012. Hillary Clinton's utterly incompetent Ohio campaign brought he just 43.2% of the vote, the smallest share for a Democrat since Reagan thumped Walter Mondale (40.1%) in 1984. Priorities USA is filled with Hillary staffers who are misreading the state badly based on 2016. Last year, Sherrod Brown was reelected, comfortably, 53.4% to 46.6%. Also last year, 2 Democrats were elected statewide to the Supreme Court, Melody Stewart making history as the first-ever African American Democrat elected statewide. She ousted a sitting Republican justice, 52.6% to 47.4%. Meanwhile Democrat Michael Donnelly trounced Republican Craig Baldwin 61% to 39%. Still, Richardson wrote that in 2018, Democrats "failed to flip a single congressional seat despite strong showings-- and lots of outside money-- in several districts." The manifest incompetence of the DCCC-- recruiting dreadful conservative candidates who inspired no one-- shouldn't be a reason to give up on Ohio.

I spoke with an old friend, Mary Jo Kilroy, a former congresswoman who was re-districted out of her Columbus area seat in 2010. When I asked her about the SuperPAC's decision to ignore her state, she told me that "Ohio is not a Red state-- it's a gerrymandered state. Were it not for that factor, some of those congressional seats they referenced would have flipped in 2018, and could have generated more votes for the top of the ticket. There are a lot of reasons why Cordray did not win the governor's office, despite his campaign manager's efforts at excusing the loss by disparaging Ohio's winnability. The Clinton campaign's lackluster campaign in Ohio should not be a model for Priorities USA.  Ohioans will respond to a full, spirited campaign, and early engagement here would pay off. Otherwise, the DC pacs are abandoning Ohio's workers just like GM and Trump did to Lordstown.

Ohio attorney and political blogger, Tim Russo, was more blunt-- and unfazed. "Good riddance," he told me. "Bernie Sanders won't need their money to win Ohio in 2020."

Recent electoral results in several of the states Priorities USA struggled with, before deciding to jettison Ohio, Texas and Iowa:

• Arizona
2012

Romney- 53.6%
Obama- 44.6%

2016

Trump- 48.1%
Clinton- 44.6%

2018

Sinema (D)- 50.0%
McSally (R)- 47.6%

• Georgia
2012

Romney- 53.3%
Obama- 45.5%

2016

Trump- 50.4%
Clinton- 45.3%

2018

Kemp (R)- 50.2%
Abrams (D)- 48.8%

• North Carolina
2012

Romney- 50.4%
Obama- 48.3%

2016

Trump- 49.3%
Clinton- 46.2%

• Iowa
2012

Obama- 52%
Romney- 46.2%

2016

Trump- 51.1%
Clinton- 41.7%

• Ohio
2012

Obama- 50.7%
Romney- 47.7%

2016

Trump- 51.3%
Clinton- 43.2%

2018

Brown (D)- 53.4%
Renacci (R)- 46.6%

• Texas
2012

Romney- 57.2%
Obama- 41.4%

2016

Trump- 52.1%
Clinton- 43.1%

2018

Cruz (R)- 50.9%
O'Rourke (D)- 48.3%

I spoke with an operative who isn't part of the Bernie campaign but works for a group that is supportive of Bernie's policy agenda. He said that he is 100% positive that both Ohio and Iowa are major targets for Bernie's campaign and "a big priorities... regardless of how any SuperPACs decide to spend their money." He also said that Bernie strategists are "optimistic about the direction Texas has been moving" and encouraged by the grassroots activism in the state. "Bernie isn't conceding Texas and had high hopes that he will be "helping some great local candidates and that they will be helping him."

I also spoke with a top Iowa politician who pointed out that Obama shredded it in his state in 2008 and 2012 and that Hillary abandoned the state in 2016. Two years later, Iowans gave the Democrats 3 of the state's 4 congressional districts and "came within 3 points of ousting Steve King in the 4th district with the DC Democrats not lifting a finger... well, maybe they lifted a middle finger, towards J.D.'s campaign."

Lucky for the Democrats, this is what they're up against: