Did The Anti-Red Wave Falter In Orange County-- Or Are Voters Wise To What A Blue Dog Is?

Harry Truman has a warning for today's Democratic establishment: "Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican all the time."

Yesterday was election day in a huge swathe of inland Orange County, the 3rd supervisorial district. And the big question has been-- is the big anti-red/anti-Trump wave the swept Orange County clean of Republicans in Congress still in effect? With counting still proceeding this morning, the question remains unanswered.. 6 Republicans and 1 Blue Dog Democrat, former Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, competed for the seat. As of this morning, Irvine Mayor Don Wagner, the establishment Republican pick, is leading in what turned out to be an extraordinarily low turn-out election.

• Donald Wagner (R)- 28,902 (41.9%)
• Loretta Sanchez (Blue Dog)- 25,489 (37.0%)
• Kristine Murray (R)- 5,130 (7.4%)
• Larry Bales (R)- 3,830 (5.6%)
• Deborah Pauly (R)- 3,720 (5.4%)
• Kim-Thy "Katie" Hoang Bayliss (R)- 1,314 (1.9%)
• Katherine Daigle (R)- 584 (0.8%)

Sanchez, the 59 year old Blue Dog won an Orange County House seat in 1996-- when she switched parties from Republican to Democrat-- by ever so narrowly beating GOP crackpot B-1 Bob Dornan-- becoming the first Democrat to represent Orange County in Congress within living memory. She didn't run for her seat in 2016, instead running, unsuccessfully, for the U.S. Senate against Kamala Harris, losing everywhere, including Orange County. She may yet pull this out of the hat as counting goes on-- but it doesn't look likely.

The district includes a big chunk of central Orange County--Anaheim, Tustin, Irvine, Yorba Linda, Villa Park, Anaheim Hills and Orange as well as unincorporated communities like North Tustin and the canyons. The seat became open in November when Supervisor Todd Spitzer (R) was elected OC district attorney. These areas flipped blue in the November congressional elections, ousting Mimi Walters and replacing her with Katie Porter, an outright progressive.

If only a real Democrat had run instead of a GOP-lite Blue Dog, we would have won," an OC activist from Irvine told me. Candidates like Loretta don't excite anyone to even bother to get out and vote. She's barely a Democrat and people know it... if the party nominates Joe Biden-- you call him Status Quo Joe on your blog-- it'll be the same thing... As much as people hate Trump, there will be many who just don't want another more-of-the-same corporate creep like Biden. A Democrat would have beaten Wagner today. I hope the Democratic Party learned a lesson, though I sincerely doubt they did.

The only Democrat on the board is Doug Chaffee, who just won election in the 4th district in November-- part of the Blue Wave that devastated Orange County's Republican Party and swept many Democrats into office. Sanchez's race was supposed to be a test case for the wave's staying power. A Republican-lite candidate, despite what the paid-off Democratic Establishment always insists, is absolutely the wrong way to go.

There was a small Republican ballot registration advantage and of the 235,714 vote-by-mail ballots issued by the OC Registrar of Voters, 81,069 went to Republicans, 74,614 went to Democrats and 71,003 went to independents. Democrats had to win over the bulk of independents to have duplicated what Katie Porter did in ousting Mimi Walters 4 months ago. "Ex"-Republican Blue Dog Loretta Sanchez was hardly the candidate to accomplish that.

In an essay at Truthout earlier today, "Speaking Truth to Power" Is No Substitute for Taking Power, Norman Solomon was probably referring to presidential candidates with this closing statement: "Right now, ending GOP rule is necessary-- and also insufficient. Being 'better than Republicans' is a low bar that most Democratic candidates clear with ease. But quests for social justice, human rights, environmental protection, civil liberties and peace will require high standards that only grassroots power can achieve." But this is equally true up and down the ballot-- as Democrats in Orange County experienced yesterday.