In Deep Blue Districts, Holding A Rotten Incumbent Accountable Means One Thing: Robust Primaries

Peterson needs a primary anyway

Earlier today, we looked at some corporate Dems trying to earn their keep from their corporate masters by torpedoing Medicare-For-All. Is that OK? Let me put another layer on that for a moment. There are dozens of non-competitive seats-- seats with virtually no viable Republicans-- but where corporate Democrats are wasting everyone's time doing the Republican-lite boogaloo for no discernible reason (other than to line their own pockets and build their own power). Let me give you a few examples, along with Hillary Clinton's 2016 win number:

• AL-07- Terri Sewell (New Dem)- 69.8%
• FL-05- Al Lawson (New Dem)- 61.3%
• FL-23- Debbie Wasserman Schultz (New Dem)- 61.9%
• GA-13- David Scott (Blue Dog)- 71.0%
• HI-01- Ed Case (New Dem)- 63.1%
• IL-10- Brad Schneider (Blue Dog)- 62.0%
• MA-08- Stephen Lynch- 60.4%
• MD-05- Steny Hoyer- 64.1%
• NJ-01- Donald Norcrosss (New Dem)- 60.6%
• NY-05- Gregory Meeks (New Dem)- 85.7%
• NY-12- Carolyn Maloney- 83.3%

So what do these districts have in common? Hillary-- the weakest possible candidate the Democrats could have run-- won each with over 60% of the vote. These are all districts that are going to elect to Congress whomever wins the Democratic nomination. All of these particular incumbents-- except Carolyn Maloney, who's on this list because of corruption, not votes-- sport a lifetime crucial vote score of "F."

There are much worse Democrats who I am eager to see-- and in some cases working towards-- forcing into primary races. But in some of those cases a Democratic nominee could lose a general. MN-07 is a perfect example. Incumbent Blue Dog Collin Peterson is putrid. He's both egregiously corrupt and has the 4th worst voting record among House Dems. His district's PVI is R+12. It's one of the few seats the Democrats would lose by replacing a conservative with a moderate or progressive. Or anyone... The people there like Peterson despite the "D" next to his name. There is no other Democrat who could hold the seat. I'd support a primary challenger anyone. Peterson does the Democratic Party far more harm by being in Congress than he would do by losing his seat.

Personally, though, I'd rather put my energy and resources into defeating Blue Dogs and New Dems in very blue seats and replacing them in Congress with someone who embraces Democratic Party values. Over the weekend Emily Cochrane's report on primaries, Justice Democrats Helped Make Ocasio-Cortez. They're Already Eyeing Their Next Targets, was published by the NY Times. The most salient factor of the kinds of primaries the Justice Democrats will likely run was left out of the story-- without primaries there is no accountability for turgid careerist legislators. They will never have to face a Republican challenge and without a primary challenge that can do whatever the hell they want. That's why entrenched Democrats like Al Wynn (MD), Tim Holden (PA), Silvestre Reyes (TX), and, among others, Matthew Martinez (CA). OK, back to Cochrane's Times piece:

Less than a month into the 116th Congress, Sean McElwee, the liberal co-founder of Data for Progress, rattled off a list of sitting Democratic House members who should face a primary from the left, his exposition punctuated with dismissive expletives.

There was Representative Stephen F. Lynch of Massachusetts, a moderate, perennial primary target who voted against the Affordable Care Act in 2010; Representative Henry Cuellar of Texas, who raised money for a Republican House incumbent last year as a popular Democratic challenger was closing in; Representative Daniel Lipinski, an old-school Chicago-area politician who has voted against gay marriage and tried to sink Obamacare; and Representative Eliot L. Engel of New York, the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee who has clashed with one of the highest-profile liberal freshmen, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota.

Mr. McElwee, a pollster and political adviser, has floated all of those names to Justice Democrats, a small grass-roots organization that burst onto the political scene last year after coordinating Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s stunning primary defeat of Joseph Crowley of New York, the No. 4 Democrat in the House at the time.

“These are a lot of ideological contests for the soul of the Democratic Party,” Mr. McElwee said.

So far, Justice Democrats has publicly confirmed its intent on only one primary challenge-- against Mr. Cuellar, who infuriated the left when he raised money for Representative John Carter as the Democratic challenger, M.J. Hegar, was gaining traction.

...Democratic lawmakers say their “big tent” party must embrace varying degrees of liberal ideology to match the House districts they hope to represent.

“I support the principle of open competition,” said Representative Ro Khanna, Democrat of California and an ardent liberal whom Justice Democrats claims as one of its own. But, Mr. Khanna added: “I’m not going to be spending any of my efforts recruiting, supporting candidates against my colleagues. I’d rather we build and form a consensus.”

Waleed Shahid, Justice Democrats’ communications director, said primaries give the most involved, activist voters in solid blue districts the chance to choose what kind of Democrat they want representing them in Congress.

“It takes movements like ours to push parties to prioritize what the base wants and what the values of the party are,” Mr. Shahid said. “That is the role of our movement, to give a policy vision for this country to a party that often lacks a clear policy vision.”

A spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of House Democrats, said its focus remained on defeating President Trump and expanding the current House majority. (The committee has announced a slate of 32 seats held by Republicans it intends to challenge.) Mr. Cuellar, asked last month about Justice Democrats’ challenge, reminded reporters that this would not be his first round beating back a primary opponent.

“What happened to the Democratic Party being a tent?” Mr. Cuellar said as he described a moderate Democratic constituency in his district, which stretches from the Mexican border to the suburbs of San Antonio. “An outside group that thinks they know southwest Texas politics better than I do are going to find out.”

Both supporters and opponents of Justice Democrats say that with the 2018 election barely in the rearview mirror, it is too early to assess how primary challenges might disrupt the Democratic field. But in a presidential year, when turnout in the primaries is often much higher than in midterm election seasons, Justice Democrats has the potential to be far more disruptive than it was in 2018, and the group and its allies are in a fighting mood.

“We should absolutely be allowed to contest what it means to be a Democrat,” Mr. McElwee said in an interview. “You can’t have a tent that includes both people of color and people who work to undermine the rights and humanity of people of color.” He pointed to Gov. Ralph Northam of Virginia, who defeated a more progressive Democrat, Tom Perriello, in the primary, only to be consumed in scandal for his use of blackface in the 1980s.

Liberal primary challengers are not new to the Democratic Party, but they can be costly. Steve Israel, a retired congressman from New York who once led the campaign committee, recalled instances in which lawmakers delayed contributions to the tight races of their colleagues as they fought off primary challengers in their safe districts.

[Israel is lying; he made that up.]

Now, the challenges carry more weight.

“It didn’t have the energy and the intensity that it does now,” Mr. Israel said, adding, “Every challenge has to be taken seriously.”

Ms. Ocasio-Cortez caught Mr. Crowley off guard, but this time, Justice Democrats’ targets will see a challenge coming-- although awareness is not necessarily a guarantee for survival. Months after Ms. Ocasio-Cortez’s victory, Ayanna S. Pressley, a Boston city councilwoman endorsed by the group, successfully toppled Michael Capuano, a 10-term Massachusetts congressman.

Mr. Shahid acknowledged that Justice Democrats, with 12 full-time and part-time staff members, had some missteps to learn from. He said the organization had to learn from “stretching ourselves too thin and not being as laser focused.”

He noted that the group would back a smaller group of candidates and focus solely on races in secure Democratic districts. Group members, during a conference call last week, said they had begun reaching out to people to discuss possible campaigns, but had not closed the endorsement window.

In 2018, Justice Democrats endorsed 78 candidates and recruited 12 to run for office, serving as a grass-roots political consulting firm and jump-starting campaigns. Out of those 12, Ms. Ocasio-Cortez was the only one who won her general election. Six other endorsed candidates-- three incumbents and three freshmen-- also made it to Congress. All seven are in the House.

Many of the group’s candidates challenged races in districts that leaned Republican, and in several cases the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee worked hard to beat them back, worried that a Justice Democrats triumph in the primary would cost the party a potential seat. Lizzie Fletcher, for instance, beat the Justice Democrats candidate, Laura Moser, in a primary in the Houston suburbs, then went on to defeat the Republican incumbent, John Culberson, in a race that may have been far more difficult for her to win as a more liberal candidate.

In more Democratic districts, candidates supported by Justice Democrats came up disappointingly short. Marie Newman’s challenge to Mr. Lipinski, backed by some sitting Democratic lawmakers, was seen as a real opportunity to take down a congressman increasingly loathed by his own party. She lost, though Justice Democrats speculates that had her primary been after Ms. Ocasio-Cortez’s, the momentum would have lifted her to victory.

[No Labels infused an immense amount of last minute sewer money into the race to pull it out for Lipinski. Otherwise Newman, who is running again this cycle, would have won. You can contribute to her and to other candidates primarying reaction and corrupt incumbents by clicking on the Blue America Primary A Blue Dog thermometer on the right.]

This time around, the organization intends to spend more on fewer candidates and is working to build a larger infrastructure and a bigger fund-raising arm. During the monthly call last week, members outlined a new fellowship program in which people could learn about staffing a campaign and becoming part of a more permanent foundation for candidates’ races.

Candidates are required to pledge not to take any corporate political action committee or lobbying money, and are expected to be aligned with Justice Democrats’ platform, which includes abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement, advocating free public colleges and trade schools, and ending the death penalty.

Mr. Shahid frequently raises comparisons to, among other movements, the abolitionists in the Civil War-era Republican Party. Eric Foner, a historian and professor emeritus at Columbia University, said the group could learn from them.

“You have to play the long game if you don’t command a majority right now,” he said. “I’m not advocating that they be quiet, but if you don’t have a majority, you’re automatically playing the longer game.”

Mr. Shahid, Mr. McElwee and their allies argue that they do not need long-game patience. Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, Representative Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Ms. Omar, all Justice Democrats candidates, have already pushed strong climate change measures, higher taxes on the wealthy and support for a Palestinian state into the mainstream debate surrounding Democratic ideals.

“Medicare for all,” a tenet of the group’s platform, and the Green New Deal have become critical aspects of the Democratic primary race for president in 2020. Even sitting Democrats have felt pressure to endorse the programs-- or, like Ms. Feinstein, have faced viral wrath for appearing to not take the platforms seriously.

“We can’t have a 15-year power-building strategy,” Mr. McElwee said. “We have to have power now. We have to have it next election.”

Some of the group’s potency stems from the viral might of Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and her close ties to the group: Two of her top staff members helped found Justice Democrats, and Mr. Shahid worked on her campaign. And she appeared in an eight-minute video with the organization’s founders that circulated last month, explaining how Justice Democrats propelled her campaign into existence and success.

“It’s an uncomfortable feeling to go against the grain, but that’s what we’re here for,” said Corbin Trent, a spokesman for Ms. Ocasio-Cortez and a founder of the group.

“Hopefully,” he added, “things are getting shook up a little bit.”