How About Flipping 10 Seats In Texas Next Year? Not Impossible

Last cycle, just as election fever started revving up, the DCCC's regional vice chair for Texas, quit. Ben Ray Lujan and his lame reactionary staffers were overjoyed that they weren't going to have a disrupter sticking his nose into "their business." He promised to fill the empty seat quickly. But never even tried. The regional vice chair for the West Coast, Ted Lieu, flipped 7 seats. The DCCC's incompetent staffers handling Texas unsupervised managed to do more harm than good. Two New Dems replaced a couple of walking dead Republicans in districts Hillary won. The DCCC managed to muck up chances to win in 10 other Texas districts that should have been in contention.

This cycle, the DCCC is at least starting by suddenly noticing that there are seats in Texas they should be fighting for-- fight for real. Take a look at this list of 10 districts and their Republican incumbents. The percentage is the win number for each of these, most of whom faced no opposition last year from the DCCC:

• TX-02- Dan Crenshaw- 52.9%
• TX-03- Van Taylor- 54.3%
• TX-06- Ron Wright- 53.1%
• TX-10- Michael McCaul- 50.9%
• TX-21- Chip Roy- 50.3%
• TX-22- Pete Olson- 51.4%
• TX-23- Will Hurd- 49.2%
• TX-24- Kenny Marchant- 50.7%
• TX-25- Roger Williams- 53.6%
• TX-31- John Carter- 50.6%

This is the press release about Texas the DCCC sent out on Friday:

ICYMI: Political Climate Changing in Texas Districts

Last week, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported that vulnerable GOP Congressmen Mike McCaul, Chip Roy, Pete Olson, Will Hurd, Kenny Marchant, and John Carter are so nervous about their re-election campaigns that they are already begging the National Republican Congressional Committee for help. Now, a look at Texas’ shifting political landscape from Texas Tribune executive editor Ross Ramsey helps shed light on why. As Ramsey points out, “In 2016, the Republican candidate beat the Democratic candidate by an average of 14.1 percentage points. In 2018, that dropped to 7.3 percentage points.”

“There is no question that Washington Republicans are growing more and more out of touch with Texas voters-- just look at their support for raising taxes and the cost of health care for middle-class families,” said DCCC Spokesperson Brooke Goren. “With Democrats’ momentum coming out of 2018 and six vulnerable GOP incumbents up for reelection in 2020, things aren’t looking good for House Republicans in the Lone Star State.”

Texas Tribune: Political Climate Changes in Texas Congressional Districts

By Ross Ramsey

KEY POINTS:

“When political consultants were scouring the state’s 2016 election results two years ago, they found three Texas congressional districts where voters had kept Republican incumbents in office while also favoring Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. Those districts became targets, and two of those three incumbents are no longer in Congress.”

“Three Republican members of the delegation-- U.S. Reps. Michael McCaul of Austin, Will Hurd of Helotes and Kenny Marchant of Coppell-- won in districts where U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz lost to Beto O’Rourke (though Cruz won statewide).”

“On the other side, Cruz didn’t prevail in any of the districts won by Democratic congressional candidates.”

“None of the congressional districts that were in the Democratic column in 2016 moved to the Republican side, but two moved in the other direction: CD-23, barely a red district in 2016, was barely a blue one in 2018, and CD-32 slightly favored Democrats in 2018 after showing Republicans a 10.7-percentage-point advantage in 2016. The first, represented by Hurd, was drawn as a swing district and was, until recently, the only one on the Texas map. The other is now represented by U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, who defeated Pete Sessions. The writing was on the wall there, too: Clinton narrowly defeated Trump in that district in 2016.”

“Add CD-24, where Marchant is the incumbent, to that target list. He won re-election. Statewide Republicans won in that district by 4 percentage points, on average. Trump won by about 6, but O’Rourke won by 3.5 percentage points.”

“One big difference between the 2016 and the 2018 elections in Texas was the overall strength of Democratic candidates. Republicans won every statewide race in both of those years, but the margins were very different: In 2016, the Republican candidate beat the Democratic candidate by an average of 14.1 percentage points. In 2018, that dropped to 7.3 percentage points.”

One of the most obvious candidates for a rematch is in TX-10, where Mike Siegel has already begun his 2020 race. "I quit my job on February 1, and began running full-time, so I can finish the job," he told us. We've got something special here: an alliance of progressives and old-time Texas Democrats, Our Revolution and Sierra Club, Indivisible and MoveOn, compatriots of Ann Richards and 18-year olds fighting for their future. I am making the case to the establishment and grassroots alike, that we've put together a winning formula, and that with a longer runway will build a machine to send McCaul into early retirement. So I'm counting on folks like Blue America but also Democrats in DC to support this effort and put us over the top."

"I'm thrilled to see the focus on TX-10 in 2020, as it reflects on our work to recruit 1,000 volunteers during the 2018 campaign, to make 300,000 voter contacts, and to turn an R+19 race into an R+4 result. McCaul has failed to voters of this District in countless ways, and he is no longer safe behind a wall of gerrymandering and personal wealth. His refusal to meet with his constituents, his attacks on health care and immigrant families, his disdain for working people, his complicity with every Trump atrocity-- these factors and more have made him very vulnerable."

Mike isn't waiting for anyone to do anything. He's already campaigning full speed ahead. Tomorrow, he's holding a training session for volunteers at the Maud Smith Marks Branch Library in Katy. A week later he has an event in Tomball. He's back in Katy 2 weeks later. He's going to work hard enough to make sure this is Michael McCaul's last term in Congress. Please consider tapping on the Take Back Texas thermometer above and contributing what you can to Mike's campaign. (Suggestion: $20.20 is a good number.)