California Gave The Democrats 7 New House Seats Last Year-- Next Year Expect That From Texas

It will help all Democrats running in Texas if Beto runs against John Cornyn

Democrats only managed to flip 2 seats in Texas last year, one in Houston and one in Dallas. Nationally, Republicans let out a sigh of relief. Texas Republicans were-- and still are-- panicked. They saw how close some of their "safest" seats came to flipping-- and how poorly many of their biggest names did. Andrea Drusch explained how scared they still are in yesterday's Fort Worth Star Telegram. But first, take a look at these TEN districts 2020 targets:

• TX-02- Dan Crenshaw- 52.9%
• TX-03- Van Taylor- 54.3%
• TX-06- Ron Wright- 53.1%
• TX-10- Michael McCaul- 50.9%
• TX-21- Chip Roy- 50.3%
• TX-22- Pete Olson- 51.4%
• TX-23- Will Hurd- 49.2%
• TX-24- Kenny Marchant- 50.7%
• TX-25- Roger Williams- 53.6%
• TX-31- John Carter- 50.6%

Early yesterday, Mike Siegel sent his supporters this little pop-up graphic with a note:

"Last month," wrote Mike, "we announced that we are getting back in the race to oust Rep. Michael McCaul. Right after that, the DCCC announced a huge ad buy in TX-10 targeting McCaul. There is serious momentum in the race right now... Setting up a $10 recurring donation to our campaign now will help us run a strong campaign to take on Rep. McCaul. It helps us plan for the future and will allow us to make big strides early in the campaign. Last year showed that we have what it takes to win this race and I am ready to show McCaul the door."

Drusch's main point was that "Texas Republicans have long coasted to re-election while ignoring their Democratic opponents. Not anymore. For 2020, GOP incumbents in what has historically been one of the most solidly red states in the union are plotting offense-driven campaigns they hope will insulate them even if the party brand takes a nosedive. Strategists and party operatives interviewed by the Star-Telegram say the approach comes after a number of long-serving Republicans notched closer-than-expected victories in 2018, while their party lost ground in the suburbs. Even popular lawmakers aren’t safe if Texas voters continue to move away from the GOP in the Donald Trump era, the strategists said. So they are aiming to more aggressively drive attention to their opponents instead."

Mike Siegel read what those GOP strategists had to say and shook his head. "When Michael McCaul and his GOP cronies say they will 'go on offense' in 2020, they admit they have a morally bankrupt agenda that does nothing to improve the lives of most Texans. To protect his sinecure and status, they’d rather attack me and my family and my history of civil rights advocacy, rather than lift a finger for people struggling with low pay, minimal healthcare, and an uncertain retirement. Like any cornered animal, Texas Republicans are desperate, resorting to voter suppression and slander to maintain power. The antidote for us will be to build a robust campaign that goes straight to the people, and that shows that we are willing to fight for dignity, justice and opportunity for every person in this country."

Also, the word "popular" is a problem. Popular with whom? Joe Crowley in New York was an entrenched untouchable Democratic powerbroker-- the future speaker of the House. He was very popular-- among his cronies. But no one else knew who the hell he was-- and certainly not in a district (his own) that had shifted demographically to a point where whites, Crowley's base, were just 25% of the population. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a waitress and bartender, came out of the blue and eviscerated him. None of the establishment-- with whom he was so popular-- even realized it was happening. Now, these vulnerable Texas congressmen... are they really "popular?" If they were, they wouldn't have all come so close to being defeated last year. And then there's the Trump Factor. He wasn't on the ticket last year. He will be this year. He's likely to win Texas in 2020-- but not the congressional districts listed above.

“People are concerned, worried, fearful, about how do we strike a balance between handling the president and the base, versus building that broader outreach?” said Texas GOP strategist Brendan Steinhauser, who has worked for Texas Sens. John Cornyn and Ted Cruz, as well as GOP Reps. Mike McCaul and Dan Crenshaw.

The answer, Steinhauser said, is offense: “You talk about how the left is out of the mainstream and they want to socialize the country.”


It’s an approach Republicans are gearing up to deploy nationwide. But in Texas, it’s particularly noteworthy after Republicans have for years brushed off national help and many candidates have run successfully in the past without even mentioning their Democratic opponents.

The 2018 cycle scared many Republicans, who lost two congressional seats, and offered the first real evidence that the state might move from red to purple.

“A lot of people were taken by surprise,” said Steinhauser. “It’s going to take a lot more time, money and focus on the district.”

So acute is that concern, that members of the Texas delegation sat down last week with leaders from the House GOP campaign arm-- which typically assists with polling, opposition research and negative advertising-- to request more help with their races.

“We’re listening to everybody on what they did do and what they want to do next cycle,” said Justin Richards, political director at the National Republican Congressional Committee.

This cycle, Democrats are targeting six more seats representing Texas suburbs-- the districts held by Reps. McCaul, Chip Roy, Pete Olson, Will Hurd, Kenny Marchant and John Carter.

Hurd, Roy, Olson and Carter each faced opposition from national Democrats last cycle as well, and Carter reached out to the party committee for help with that race too.

Hurd’s opponent Gina Ortiz Jones is considering another race, as is Carter’s opponent MJ Hegar. Hegar is also mulling a challenge to Cornyn, who is staffing up for re-election in 2020.

McCaul and Marchant each finished fewer than five percentage points ahead of their Democratic opponents, who were not included in their national party’s efforts. McCaul’s opponent, Mike Siegel is running again in 2020. Marchant’s opponent, Jan McDowell, is also considering another bid.


“It’s a presidential year. Presidential turnout, the blind hated of Trump will drive the left out, It’s going to be a battleground everywhere,” said Dave Carney, chief strategist for Texas’ Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s political efforts.

If he were a Democrat choosing targets in Texas, he said: “I’d pick every seat.”

"Every seat?" That's a stupid waste of time and resources. Some of the rural areas are so backward and so Trump-afflicted that they would literally vote for Republicans wearing Nazi armbands and protesting Trump's residence in a federal prison. Nothing is going to flip Louie Gohmert's mostly white/mostly rural/low education district, where Trump won 72.2% of the vote, or-- even worse--  Michael Conaway's west Texas district-- again, mostly white, very rural and ill-educated-- where Trump took 77.8%. It'll take years to win those districts over. But... there are Republicans still sitting in seats where Trump performed poorly in 2016, primarily the same ones listed above. These are the seats held by Republicans today but where Trump struggled in 2016:

• TX-02- 52.4%
• TX-03- 54.8%
• TX-06- 54.2%
• TX-10- 52.3%
• TX-21- 52.5%
• TX-22- 52.1%
• TX-23- 46.4%
• TX-24- 50.7%
• TX-25- 55.1%
• TX-31- 53.5%

This morning, Mike told me that the Texas Republicans "are scared because we took a 'safe' Republican seat with a 19-point advantage and turned it into a national battleground. We held a 7-time incumbent with unlimited resources to 51% of the vote. So..." If the Democrats flip TX-10 and these 9 other seats in 2020, the Republican Party will crumble. Up top there's a Blue America "Take Back Texas" thermometer. There's only one candidate on it now... but I hope we'll have 10 in the not too distant future. Plus Beto for Senate!