Friday, December 14, 2018

What's Wrong With The 2020 Cook House Ratings?

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Last cycle at this time, Cook refused to see an anti-red wave forming. So their forecasts were not just wrong; they were absurd and a complete joke. But many in the media see them as the political forecasting bible. Early in the 2018 cycle, Cook, graciously acknowledged that the Democrats might net a few seats but doubted they could get into the double digits, let alone win back the House. All that hot air-- endlessly repeated on the spin cycle-- made everyone who used them look like a fool in retrospect. And guess what Cook, which has never learned a lesson in its entire history of existence, is doing again! More moronic House ratings, this time for 2020.

Maybe I'm being overly harsh. After all, if there was no Donald Trump... if the GOP was normal political party in a well-functioning democracy... if the last 2 years had not happened... well, then their ratings would be worth taking a look at. But...

The Republicans lost the House in 2006 in an anti-red wave. The GOP lost 27 seats and Nancy Pelosi replaced Denny Hastert as Speaker. Last month, the Republicans lost far more seats-- a net of 40 (which is likely to turn into 41 or 42, not counting the 2 seats represented by prison-bound Chris Collins and Druncan Hunter). Two years later along came the 2008 presidential election and Democrats were even more enthusiastic to get out and vote (for Obama) and the GOP lost another 21 seats. That's how waves of that nature work. Does that mean 2020 will see an extension off the 2018 wave? Well, no because Trump could change 74 years of personality and become a good president who is popular and beloved. Short of that... yes, the anti-red wave will continue to build as we approach the congressional elections.


Yesterday, we listed 50 vulnerable Republican seats in order of vulnerability, just based on the 2018 GOP win margins in each district, without reference to any other factors, like retirements, quality of opposition, none, policy, etc. Will the Republicans lose all 50 seats? Probably not-- but they are likely to lose most of them.

And what about the really shit Democrats elected from red districts last month? In Cook world it makes sense that the GOP will regain those seats. But that isn't how wave cycles work. Cook lists 16 Democratic toss up districts, only half a dozen of which have elected members likely to be inspiring and worthwhile members of Congress. The rest, are just garbage who deserve to lose. But they won't, not in 2020. There are 16 more freshmen in the Lean Dem category, mostly crap like Jeff Van Drew (Blue Dog-NJ) and Gil Cisneros in Orange County, still fighting with a young woman he attempted to molest, except he's now demanding the FBI get involved. But-- with the possible exception of Cisneros-- they will all keep their seats too (in 2020). Back to 2008 again. Thanks to Rahm Emanuel's DCCC, plenty of really, really bad Democrats were swept into office by the anti-red wave. How many of the 2006 freshmen lost their seats in 2008? Tim Mahoney (FL), a Rahm-and-Steny Blue Dog monstrosity was could in a pre-#MeToo scandal, Nancy Boyda (KS), the only member I ever heard of who applied to join the Blue Dog caucus and was turned down and Nick Lampson (TX), another inauthentic Blue Dog hack. Three-- and three who should never have been elected in the first place.

This cycle, one of Rahm's putrid personal protégés, Cheri Bustos, will head the DCCC. Count on every bad decision possible being made... but even with that, the anti-red wave will bring Democrats far more seats-- like ten times more-- than the measly 4 GOP seats Cook lists in their Republican toss up category. The 4 Republican incumbents Cook shows being vulnerable: Woodall (GA-07), Hurd (TX-23), Marchant (TX-24) and whomever winds up in the NC-09 seat Mark Harris has been caught trying to steal. And these are the 50 vulnerable Republicans on the DWT target list-- from most vulnerable to not quite as vulnerable. (One note on this list: recruitment and candidate quality matters... a lot.)
KS-02- Steve Watkins
TX-23- Will Hurd
NY-27- Chris Collins
GA-07- Rob Woodall
MI-06- Fred Upton
MN-01- Jim Hagedorn
TX-21- Chip Roy
IA-04- Steve King
IL-13- Rodney Davis
TX-31- John Carter
TX-24- Kenny Marchant
MN-08- Peter Stauber
TX-10- Michael McCaul
Montana- Greg Gianforte
NE-02- Don Bacon
KY-06- Andy Barr
PA-01- Brian Fitzpatrick
MO-02- Ann Wagner
NC-02- George Holding
TX-22- Pete Olson
PA-10- Scott Perry
PA-16- Mike Kelly
NC-13- Ted Budd
OH-12- Troy Balderson
CO-03- Scott Tipton
CA-50- Duncan Hunter
IL-12- Mike Bost
OH-01- Steve Chabot
AR-02- French Hill
NY-01- Lee Zeldin
CA-22- Devin Nunes
TX-02- Dan Crenshaw
WA-03- Jaime Herrera Beutler
FL-15- Ross Spano
NY-24- John Katko
TX-06- Ron Wright
NY-02- Peter King
Alaska- Don Young
VA-05- Denver Riggleman
TX-25- Roger Williams
MI-07- Tim Walberg
CA-04- Tom McClintock
FL-18- Brian Mast
TX-03- Van Taylor
MI-03- Justin Amash
WI-01- Bryan Steil
FL-16- Vern Buchanan
IN-02- Jackie Walorski
CA-01- Doug LaMalfa

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4 Comments:

At 5:06 AM, Anonymous Hone said...

Screw them all.

Gee, what if we had a progressive Congress that really did good stuff? OMG! Will I ever see this in my lifetime?

 
At 5:49 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not if you found an AOC to run against all of them.

gerrymandering alone will mean that, even though Pelosi is sure to do nothing at all to check trump's worst instincts (remembering her refusal to check cheney/bush in exactly the same sitchie in 2007), the most the democraps could get might be about 15 more.

But you refuse to factor in that the DCCC will surely try hard to primary several annoyingly progressive-ish members, like AOC or Jayapal, plus the fact that most of their hand-picked candidates will be oceans of pig shit.

After another cycle of Pelosi doing nothing at all for 300 million americans and another spate of DCCC pig shit candidates, I see the Nazis gaining back seats.

The wild card is some sort of economic upheaval similar to 2008.

Remember that 2008, absent Lehman going poof when it did, would probably have resulted in president McPalin and the democraps would, at best, have broke even in the house. The senate map was just as favorable as 2020, so they might have gained a seat or two, but would not have reached 60.

That 60, as we saw repeatedly, was only a number. It did not mean the democraps were ever going to do anything.

So I guess DWT is rooting for another crash so his democrap heroes can increase their numbers.

For the American people, however, there really is no hope at all for any improvement.

 
At 8:43 AM, Blogger edmondo said...

More Democrats means more of the same.

Who gives a shit? Only Nancy Pelosi's donors.

 
At 9:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This plan didn't work so well in the CA Legislature. WE still have solons doing the work of the GOP even though they aren't members.

 

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