What's Wrong With The 2020 Cook House Ratings?

Last cycle at this time, Cook refused to see an anti-red wave forming. So their forecasts were not just wrong; they were absurd and a complete joke. But many in the media see them as the political forecasting bible. Early in the 2018 cycle, Cook, graciously acknowledged that the Democrats might net a few seats but doubted they could get into the double digits, let alone win back the House. All that hot air-- endlessly repeated on the spin cycle-- made everyone who used them look like a fool in retrospect. And guess what Cook, which has never learned a lesson in its entire history of existence, is doing again! More moronic House ratings, this time for 2020.

Maybe I'm being overly harsh. After all, if there was no Donald Trump... if the GOP was normal political party in a well-functioning democracy... if the last 2 years had not happened... well, then their ratings would be worth taking a look at. But...

The Republicans lost the House in 2006 in an anti-red wave. The GOP lost 27 seats and Nancy Pelosi replaced Denny Hastert as Speaker. Last month, the Republicans lost far more seats-- a net of 40 (which is likely to turn into 41 or 42, not counting the 2 seats represented by prison-bound Chris Collins and Druncan Hunter). Two years later along came the 2008 presidential election and Democrats were even more enthusiastic to get out and vote (for Obama) and the GOP lost another 21 seats. That's how waves of that nature work. Does that mean 2020 will see an extension off the 2018 wave? Well, no because Trump could change 74 years of personality and become a good president who is popular and beloved. Short of that... yes, the anti-red wave will continue to build as we approach the congressional elections.

Yesterday, we listed 50 vulnerable Republican seats in order of vulnerability, just based on the 2018 GOP win margins in each district, without reference to any other factors, like retirements, quality of opposition, none, policy, etc. Will the Republicans lose all 50 seats? Probably not-- but they are likely to lose most of them.

And what about the really shit Democrats elected from red districts last month? In Cook world it makes sense that the GOP will regain those seats. But that isn't how wave cycles work. Cook lists 16 Democratic toss up districts, only half a dozen of which have elected members likely to be inspiring and worthwhile members of Congress. The rest, are just garbage who deserve to lose. But they won't, not in 2020. There are 16 more freshmen in the Lean Dem category, mostly crap like Jeff Van Drew (Blue Dog-NJ) and Gil Cisneros in Orange County, still fighting with a young woman he attempted to molest, except he's now demanding the FBI get involved. But-- with the possible exception of Cisneros-- they will all keep their seats too (in 2020). Back to 2008 again. Thanks to Rahm Emanuel's DCCC, plenty of really, really bad Democrats were swept into office by the anti-red wave. How many of the 2006 freshmen lost their seats in 2008? Tim Mahoney (FL), a Rahm-and-Steny Blue Dog monstrosity was could in a pre-#MeToo scandal, Nancy Boyda (KS), the only member I ever heard of who applied to join the Blue Dog caucus and was turned down and Nick Lampson (TX), another inauthentic Blue Dog hack. Three-- and three who should never have been elected in the first place.

This cycle, one of Rahm's putrid personal protégés, Cheri Bustos, will head the DCCC. Count on every bad decision possible being made... but even with that, the anti-red wave will bring Democrats far more seats-- like ten times more-- than the measly 4 GOP seats Cook lists in their Republican toss up category. The 4 Republican incumbents Cook shows being vulnerable: Woodall (GA-07), Hurd (TX-23), Marchant (TX-24) and whomever winds up in the NC-09 seat Mark Harris has been caught trying to steal. And these are the 50 vulnerable Republicans on the DWT target list-- from most vulnerable to not quite as vulnerable. (One note on this list: recruitment and candidate quality matters... a lot.)

• KS-02- Steve Watkins
• TX-23- Will Hurd
• NY-27- Chris Collins
• GA-07- Rob Woodall
• MI-06- Fred Upton
• MN-01- Jim Hagedorn
• TX-21- Chip Roy
• IA-04- Steve King
• IL-13- Rodney Davis
• TX-31- John Carter
• TX-24- Kenny Marchant
• MN-08- Peter Stauber
• TX-10- Michael McCaul
• Montana- Greg Gianforte
• NE-02- Don Bacon
• KY-06- Andy Barr
• PA-01- Brian Fitzpatrick
• MO-02- Ann Wagner
• NC-02- George Holding
• TX-22- Pete Olson
• PA-10- Scott Perry
• PA-16- Mike Kelly
• NC-13- Ted Budd
• OH-12- Troy Balderson
• CO-03- Scott Tipton
• CA-50- Duncan Hunter
• IL-12- Mike Bost
• OH-01- Steve Chabot
• AR-02- French Hill
• NY-01- Lee Zeldin
• CA-22- Devin Nunes
• TX-02- Dan Crenshaw
• WA-03- Jaime Herrera Beutler
• FL-15- Ross Spano
• NY-24- John Katko
• TX-06- Ron Wright
• NY-02- Peter King
• Alaska- Don Young
• VA-05- Denver Riggleman
• TX-25- Roger Williams
• MI-07- Tim Walberg
• CA-04- Tom McClintock
• FL-18- Brian Mast
• TX-03- Van Taylor
• MI-03- Justin Amash
• WI-01- Bryan Steil
• FL-16- Vern Buchanan
• IN-02- Jackie Walorski
• CA-01- Doug LaMalfa