Democrats Are Doing Well In The Money Race, But The Midterms Will Be Decided By Which Side Can Get Out The Vote

Yesterday was the end of the third quarter. You were probably barraged with hysterical fundraising requests. I sure was. The ones that say "personal" in the subject line cause me to automatically unsubscribe. Elena Schneider reported for Politico that small dollar donations are an answer to the Koch Bros fundraising machine and that "Democratic House candidates raised nearly $36 million online in August."

As it does every cycle, the fall sees an accelerated pace of small dollar donations. In the last two weeks, Blue America brought it over $350,000 for our candidates, more than in the previous entire quarter. Yesterday our fundraising letter was on behalf of Nate McMurray, the progressive Democrat running for the seat disgraced by GOP criminal Chris Collins. We talked about what he wants to accomplish for the people of western New York, not about how many hours 'til the quarter is up. Who gives a shit about when the quarter is up or how many hours are left? Or even what the fake matching promises is today? Campaign staffers; no one else.

Voters want to know about who candidates are-- in terms of honesty, integrity, character-- and what they're going to do for them... and that's how we try to present our candidates to our members. No hysteria about fake FEC "deadlines."

Schneider's report emphasized that "hundreds of thousands of online donors are pouring gobs of cash into Democratic House campaigns at an accelerating clip-- a bulwark against a late-summer advertising assault that Republicans hope could save their majority. Republicans have long seen their outside-money advantage as a key factor in the battle for the House, with Congressional Leadership Fund pledging to spend a massive $100 million in 2018. The super PAC’s plan is to attack Democrats early and often, and it unleashed a salvo of TV attack ads in 15 districts before Labor Day, seeking to disqualify Democrats before the fall campaign even heated up."

Wild, insane attacks on Blue America-endorsed candidates Randy Bryce (WI-01), Kara Eastman (NE-o2), Jared Golden (ME-2), Katie Porter (CA-45), Ammar Campa-Najjar (CA-50), Lisa Brown (WA-05). Small dollar donors have come to their defense. The smear campaign against Bryce has been so intense-- $1.8 million worth, compliments of Paul Ryan's sleazy SuperPAC-- that we were forced to form the IronStache Fund to respond (especially since the DCCC refuses to). In fact... that thermometer on the right is for the IronStache Fund.

Among those leading the way was Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer [and current Blue Dog] running in Virginia who raised $790,000 online in August-- and saw a fundraising spike after disclosing that CLF had obtained her confidential security clearance application while conducting research on her employment history, according to her campaign.

But by the time CLF used the information to attack Spanberger on TV on Sept. 6, the Democrat had already aired nearly 900 positive TV spots in her race against GOP Rep. Dave Brat, according to data from Advertising Analytics.

“Our ads helped set the baseline of who I am and that was probably very helpful in combating those attacks,” Spanberger said in an interview with Politico. “The juxtaposition of the visuals of the ads, ours showing me as a normal person and theirs are just scary.”

CLF has doubled down on the attacks with more TV ads, highlighting Spanberger’s stint as a substitute teacher at the Saudi-funded Islamic Saudi Academy in Mount Vernon, Virginia, and calling it “Terror High.” A Republican familiar with polling in the district said that “the race was trending in the wrong direction, and that ad helped stabilize things.”

CLF spokeswoman Courtney Alexander said that Democrats have been “forced to spend whatever they have raised responding to attack ads which are putting Democratic candidates on defense and setting the terms of these races,” adding that “no first-time candidate wants their first ad to be a response ad, and that’s what we have seen repeatedly from Democrats across the country as they are forced to scramble to answer for their records as the truth comes out.”

But Spanberger called the ads “ridiculous,” adding that the attack has “fallen flat.”

She’s just one of many Democrats bringing in big money and pouring it right back into mass communication with voters. Overall, ActBlue-- which surpassed $1 billion raised in 2018 on Aug. 2-- had its biggest month ever in August, bringing in $100 million to candidates and progressive organizations. Other top House fundraisers that month included Sharice Davids, who raised over $782,000 online in August for her campaign against Rep. Kevin Yoder (R-KS), and Jared Golden, who brought in over $729,000 online for his campaign against Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-ME).

Jared still needs contributions here

...The resulting well-funded campaigns have put House Democrats in an unusual position: They and their allied outside groups are currently out-advertising the GOP in some battlegrounds.

“Candidates and Democratic groups have been running even or we have an advantage in paid communications on the air in many of the top 25 to 30 districts across the country,” said Charlie Kelly, executive director of House Majority PAC, the Democratic House super PAC. “Time and time again, Democratic enthusiasm is off the charts.”

These August online fundraising totals track with Democratic candidate performance over the last year. A whopping 56 Republican House incumbents raised less money than their Democratic challengers during the second quarter, along with 16 congressmen with less cash on hand than their Democratic opponents.

“This is the manifestation of a larger problem-- the massive enthusiasm gap,” said one Republican consultant working on House races, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Republicans and our outside groups are raising a lot of money, too, but we can longer say or think we can rely on just our super PACs, because now Democrats have money as well. Everyone has money.”

But the money is no guarantee of success. Amy McGrath, a former combat pilot who’s challenging Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY), also caught fire online early by telling a compelling personal story in TV ads. Her first campaign video has received nearly 2 million views on YouTube, and public polling show the first-time candidate jumped ahead in public polling.



But CLF aired TV ads featuring a clip of McGrath saying: “I don’t know that I’m different than the Democratic Party nationally,” then cut to voter saying, “When I first saw Amy McGrath’s ads, I thought she was a moderate, but now we know the truth.”

CLF released a polling memo earlier this month, showing an early lead built by McGrath had evaporated. (A recent poll conducted by the New York Times also shows a tied race.) “Now 66 percent of voters see her as a liberal, compared to 39 percent in June,” the CLF polling memo reads.

McGrath has raised $3,017,831 to Barr's $3,147,866, although she had to spend much of her money in a tough primary against a Blue Dog favored by the DCCC and Pelosi. Today the general election race is a toss-up. It won't be decided by expensive ads. It'll be decided by Get Out The Vote efforts.

In a powerful fundraising plea for Kara Eastman yesterday, Senator Elizabeth Warren noted that "Republicans are scared to face the voters this November. So they’re calling in the cavalry-- asking their biggest donors to sling the filthiest mud against some of our strongest Democratic candidates. Paul Ryan’s pet Super PAC is flooding the airwaves with false attacks-- and in some cases dog-whistle garbage-- in districts that will help decide whether Democrats win back the House... Ryan’s Super PAC-- the Congressional Leadership Fund-- has raised over $100 million from sources like Sheldon Adelson, Koch Industries, and Big Oil. A recent New York Times story explained that lots of their megadonors benefited from the Republicans’ $1.5 trillion tax scam. They grab tax breaks with one hand-- and shove campaign cash at Republicans with the other. Now they’re attacking Democrats like Kara-- a first-time candidate who’s fighting for strong progressive values. She’s dedicated her life’s work to serving others, including starting a nonprofit housing organization, Omaha Healthy Kids Alliance. But get this: the right-wing Super PAC is attacking Kara for supporting Medicare for All and opposing Donald Trump’s $1.5 trillion tax scam." The thermometer above takes you to a page of candidates who have-- like Kara-- said that when they are sworn in in January, they will sign on as co-sponsors of the Medicare-For-All legislation.