There's No Weakening Of The Anti-Red Wave

Janet Hook reported for the Wall Street Journal that "Voter interest in the midterm elections has surged to record highs within both parties... findings point to an energized electorate, buffeted by dynamics that bring great uncertainty to the outcome just two weeks away. Her paper's own polling shows Democrats up by 9 points. Even the Republican Party polling firm, Rasmussen, shows the Democrats up, albeit just by 1 point. But the RealClearPolitics average is Democrats up 7.7 points. And last week's most accurate poll, the SSRS poll for CNN, shows the Democrats up by 13 points among likely voters, 54-41%, bolstered by women-- 63-33%. The FiveThirtyEight forecaster gives the Democrats a 6 out of 7 chance to win the majority in the House (84.9%... great odds).

And still... Sean Sullivan at the Washington Post was determined to pen the stupidest election analysis of the weekend: House Democrats' Hope For Wave Election Diminishes As Republicans Rebound. In a lesson of how to gin up excitement, Sullivan wrote that "Democratic hopes for a wave election that would carry them to a significant House majority have been tempered in recent weeks amid a shifting political landscape and a torrent of hard-hitting attack ads from Republicans. Democrats remain favored to win, but GOP leaders believe they can minimize the number of seats they would lose-- and, perhaps, find a path to preserving their advantage in the chamber." Do they now? This is news? Sullivan is either really stupid, really misinformed, or really Republican. He credits "Trump's rising approval rating and the polarizing fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh." Trump's approval rating is sinking not rising, except for one outlier poll. And Kavanaugh? A new released over the weekend by the Associated Press found that just 1 in 4 people think Kavanaugh "was completely honest when he heatedly rebuffed charges of sexual assault and heavy drinking during his Supreme Court confirmation hearing... Overall, 43 percent disapprove of Kavanaugh’s confirmation while 35 percent approve." That's going to derail a powerful anti-red wave that's been building for over a year? To make Sullivan's lame argument lamer, the poll also found that the role played by Trump was only approved by 32% of voters.

Even Mr. Beltway Conventional Wisdom, Dave Wasserman, told him that "The past few weeks haven't really diminished Democrats' chances of a takeover by that much, but they've increased the chances of a small Democratic majority." Sullivan's own reporting about GOP triage doesn't seem to fit the headline all that well.

The GOP is redirecting $1 million from a suburban district in Colorado to Florida, bailing on incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman to try to hold an open seat in Miami. Democrat Donna Shalala, a former Health and Human Services secretary in the Clinton administration, is struggling to break away from Maria Elvira Salazar, a Cuban American and former television anchor, in a district Hillary Clinton won by nearly 20 points.

Republicans have also pulled back in a Democratic-held open seat in Nevada that includes some of the suburbs of Las Vegas. Clinton won there, as well.

...Republicans face other obstacles, including strong Democratic fundraising and enthusiasm, as well as struggling top-of-ticket GOP contenders in some Midwestern states that could hurt candidates down the ballot.

In a newly drawn Pennsylvania district in the suburbs of Philadelphia, where Clinton won by two percentage points, Democrat Scott Wallace, a wealthy philanthropist, said the contentious Kavanaugh fight has improved his chances of ousting first-term GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick.

"On the independent and Democratic side, and of course moderate Republicans, there is a sense of anger about how Dr. Ford was treated," said Wallace, referring to Christine Blasey Ford, who accused Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her when both were teenagers; Kavanaugh denied the allegations. "My observation is that anger is a stronger motivator than gratitude. So, I think by Election Day, you will see the Kavanaugh effect will produce more energy on our side."

A recent New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll showed Wallace leading Fitzpatrick. The Republican held an edge in surveys earlier in the year.



Health care has been a main focal point of Democratic ads, which cast Republicans who voted repeatedly to repeal the law as threats to protections for people with preexisting medical conditions. Democrats have also slammed Republicans who supported the sweeping tax bill, which hasn't produced the political boost the GOP envisioned.

"Consistently, the number one issue that I hear about from voters is health care," said Rep. Katherine Clark, Mass., recruitment vice chair for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Clark said she has been to six states in the last three weeks and Democratic energy is still higher than she's ever seen in a midterm.

...The generic congressional ballot, one measure often used in public polls, shows Democrats in position to capture the majority. Voters are asked whether they would vote for the Democrat or the Republican, without names.

Among registered voters, Democratic candidates led 53 percent to 42 percent, a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted this month showed. Election forecasters and analysts estimate that Democrats need a six- to eight-point advantage to win a majority.

...In a memo to donors, Corry Bliss, the head of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC with ties to Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) wrote that the map was moving in a good direction for Republicans, but Democrats had the financial advantage. He said his group had raised $10 million in two weeks, but that Democrats were outspending the GOP on TV in top races.

And what would you expect him to say to GOP fat cats who he was trying to get more money out of? A prominent Democratic campaign manager just called me while I was writing this piece to scream about what a moron Sullivan is. His rant was too profanity-laced for me to use, although he did say something about agreeing with Trump about the quality of the Washington Post. By the way, please keep the contributions flowing to grassroots progressive who need help with their Get-Out-The-Vote efforts. This thermometer is for progressives who won their primaries and aren't being helped by the DCCC.

Oh... and Sullivan seems to have forgotten to mention early voting-- which is going through the roof. For example, Democrat areas of Georgia are going to have bigger voter turn outs than they did in the presidential election! Look at this and tell me the wave is evaporating.