Voters Aren't Feeling What Trump Insists Is The Greatest Economy In History

Yesterday, Priorities USA released a new poll by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group that bodes very badly for Trump and the Party of Trump. In the pollsters summary, they begin with a statement most people have sensed: Señor Trumpanzee's "dealings with Vladimir Putin, his handling of immigration and the separation of children from their families, and the impact of his trade war have stuck with voters in a way nothing else has since the beginning of his presidency and greatly imperil Republican chances in November... This translates into the worst ratings for Trump on his truthfulness, temperament, dealings with Russia, and immigration policies," the worst since he moved into the White House. The pollsters point out that "One of the clear and important takeaways from this survey is that Democrats and progressive should be playing offense against Trump and Republicans on economic issues, including on the cost of health care." It appears that Trump's clarion call to not believe what you see, only to believe him, isn't working.

Aspects of the economy are significant vulnerabilities for Trump. Only 35% say that Trump’s economic policies are good for people like them, and only 33% report a favorable opinion of the Trump-Republican tax bill. By 47% to 22%, voters say things are getting worse rather than better in terms of wages keeping up with the cost of living-- a significantly more negative result than our February measurement. By a 20-point margin, voters say increases in the cost of living have outstripped any tax cut they may have received. Trump continues to be identified in voters’ minds as looking out for the interests of wealthy people and big corporations rather than the interests of regular people. Despite Trump’s bragging, our poll finds that President Trump’s economic record falls far short as a counterweight to all of the other negative impressions that surround him.

The survey results identify many opportunities for Democrats and progressives to reinforce voters’ growing concerns about Trump, including among a key group of Trump voters whose current support for him is weak. Especially important in this regard is the record of Donald Trump and the Republicans in giving large tax cuts to drug companies and health insurance companies while allowing them to raise drug prices and insurance premiums without any limits. Unlike Russia and immigration, voters won’t hear about this as much in the press, meaning Democrats must continue to carry the message in paid media and on the campaign trail.

The generic congressional ballot stands at 49% Democrat, 41% Republican. "Democrats have regained a significant advantage in voter enthusiasm: 75% of those who intend to vote for a Democrat say they are highly enthusiastic and motivated about voting, compared to 64% of those who intend to vote for a Republican... Our survey results clearly indicate that the Trump factor is helping Democrats and hurting Republicans. By 51% to 37%, voters say they would rather see more Democrats elected to Congress to be a check and balance on Trump than more Republicans elected to Congress to help Trump pass his policies and programs."

[V]oters are largely unimpressed and most of them are not feeling any personal benefit from Trump’s [economic] policies despite viewing them as a boon for the wealthy... Trump’s trade war clearly is a liability for him: by 56% to 31% voters report having an unfavorable reaction to what they have heard lately about Trump’s trade policies and his decisions to engage in a trade war with China and Europe.

But the weakness of Trump’s economic position goes far beyond trade policy. Even as national job statistics improve, only 37% say that things are getting better in their own communities with regard to the availability of good jobs. A significantly larger share of the electorate, 47%, say that things are getting worse with regard to wages and incomes keeping up with the cost of living (only 22% say things are changing for the better).  Among non-college educated white voters, more say that things are changing for the worse than for the better with regard to wages. Nearly two thirds of voters (64%) say that the cost of health care is getting worse, including 57% of weak Trump voters.

When we ask voters about their opinion of the new tax law passed by the Republicans and signed by President Trump, only 33% are favorable, 21% are neutral, and 38% are unfavorable. One reason why the tax law is doing so little to help Trump and the Republicans who passed it is that most voters feel the law is doing little to help them. Just 24% say the tax cut they received is larger than any increase in the cost of living they are experiencing, while 44% say their increased cost of living exceeds any tax cut they may have received.

One of the key questions Democrats and progressive should use to frame this election is “whose side are you on.” Of particular note in this regard is that by 61% to 5% voters say things are getting better for people who already are wealthy, while by 38% to 32% these same voters say things are getting worse for the middle class and average working families. It is little wonder, then, that voters say by 56% to 25% that Trump mainly looks out for the interests of wealthy people and big corporations rather than the interests of regular people. Even among Trump voters, just 54% have a clear sense that Trump is focused on the interests of regular people.

"This poll is consistent with what I am finding on the ground in Texas," said Mike Siegel, who is waging a strong challenge to multimillionaire incumbent Michael McCaul in TX-10. "Last night I was in Colorado County for an organizing rally with a dozen volunteers. Colorado County usually breaks 5-1 Republican to Democrat, but even Trump’s core constituents are suffering. Rice farmers are devastated by retaliatory tariffs, which impact an entire ecosystem of related businesses. Devout Catholics can’t square how to support a party that separates babies from mothers at the border. The conditions for political change are present, even in the most 'red' parts of Texas."