A Stopped Clock Asks Two Good Questions — Will Trump Resign? Will Democrats Impeach Him?

Trump Impeached; Pence Pleased (source)

by Gaius Publius

In a piece called "Do Democrats Want an Impeachment Fight?" Pat Buchanan asks two key questions for people not focused on the story behind the story, the story of which the story we're watching is just a part. Those question are:

• Will Trump resign?
• Will House Democrats impeach him?

Yes, I know this is Pat Buchanan we're going to quote, or "Pat F-ing Buchanan" to use the name he's known by on the left. Still, he's been doing some decent work lately — like a stopped clock that's still managed to be right more than twice a day.

(In the era of Trump, does time circle back on itself? That's probably more true than not. We do seem to be caught in a Groundhog Day loop of real problems like climate, Trump tweets about lawyers, and dollar-driven media focus on just the tweets.)

Here's Buchanan on each of these questions. I think his analysis is pretty spot on (with one proviso, which I'll offer at the end). First, part of Buchanan's intro (my emphasis throughout):

Would a Democratic House, assuming we get one, really impeach a president for paying hush money to old girlfriends?

Hence the high-fives among never-Trumpers are premature.

But if Cohen’s guilty plea and Tuesday’s conviction of campaign manager Paul Manafort do not imperil Trump today, what they portend is ominous. For Cohen handled Trump’s dealings for more than a decade and has pledged full cooperation with prosecutors from both the Southern District of New York and the Robert Mueller investigation.

Nothing that comes of this collaboration will be helpful to Trump.

Keep in mind Mueller's ability to keep Cohen, Manafort and many others "singing" as you read on. Now our two questions.

Will Trump resign? Buchanan on that:

Trump is not going to resign. To do so would open him up to grand jury subpoenas, federal charges and civil suits for the rest of his life. To resign would be to give up his sword and shield, and all of his immunity. He would be crazy to leave himself naked to his enemies.

No, given his belief that he is under attack by people who hate him and believe he is an illegitimate president, and seek to bring him down, he will use all the powers of the presidency in his fight for survival. And as he has shown, these powers are considerable: the power to rally his emotional following, to challenge courts, to fire Justice officials and FBI executives, to pull security clearances, to pardon the convicted.

Second, will House Democrats attempt to impeach him? Buchanan again:

Democrats who have grown giddy about taking the House should consider what a campaign to bring down a president, who is supported by a huge swath of the nation and has fighting allies in the [rightwing] press, would be like.

Why do it? Especially if they knew in advance the Senate would not convict.

That America has no desire for a political struggle to the death over impeachment is evident. Recognition of this reality is why the Democratic Party is assuring America that impeachment is not what they have in mind.

Today, it is Republicans leaders who are under pressure to break with Trump, denounce him, and call for new investigations into alleged collusion with the Russians. But if Democrats capture the House, then they will be the ones under intolerable pressure from their own media auxiliaries to pursue impeachment.

Taking the House would put newly elected Democrats under fire from the right for forming a lynch mob, and from the mainstream media for not doing their duty and moving immediately to impeach Trump.

Democrats have been laboring for two years to win back the House. But if they discover that the first duty demanded of them, by their own rabid followers, is to impeach President Trump, they may wonder why they were so eager to win it.

Don't be shocked if House Democrats under Nancy Pelosi or any other Speaker take impeachment off the table. Some will call that Democratic cowardice, but Buchanan is right about the other factors as well. Right now it's Republicans who are under pressure. If Democrats take the House, the pressure will shift to them — and the country will split even further and more violently.

Are Democratic leaders ready to fight that war? Perhaps yes, perhaps not. We'll just have to wait and see. Regardless of what's moral and right though, there are no good near-term political choices.
I agree with Buchanan that either way, we're in for a hellish year.

How Mueller Can Remove Trump Without Congress

If you've read this space before, you won't be surprised at the next suggestion. There is a way for Mueller to remove Trump from office. Let's go back to Buchanan's explanation of why Trump can't resign:

Trump is not going to resign. To do so would open him up to grand jury subpoenas, federal charges and civil suits for the rest of his life. To resign would be to give up his sword and shield, and all of his immunity. He would be crazy to leave himself naked to his enemies.

He's right as far as he goes. But what if Mueller takes the threat of life in court, and the legal destruction of the Trump Organization, off the table?

In other words, what if Mueller sits down with Trump, just the two of them, and says this:
​
“Sir, these are your choices. You can stay in office until Congress impeaches you and the Senate convicts, which you think will never happen. And while you're doing that, I’ll burn down the Trump Organization till it’s a smoking hole in the ground. Keep in mind we just flipped your CFO. He's already talking.

“Then, when you finally do leave, you'll leave broke. The only structure in the world with your name on it will be your mailbox, and inside that you'll find a lifetime of summons to court. That's your first option.

“Your second option: You walk out of here now for any reason you like, congratulate Mr. Pence on his good fortune, and I will make all of your troubles go away — forever.

“It's up to you, sir. Which do you choose?”

I still think this is how the endgame plays out, with a deal offer no one talks about on TV. And I think Trump takes the deal.

To all appearances, Mueller's job is to get rid of Trump and not soil the designated heir (Mike Pence). That's what the whole of the mainstream press and much of the voting public is cheering and wants. I don't think Mueller plans to disappoint.

Side note: If you're cheering for Trump to fall and not asking just as loudly why Mueller is playing hands-off with Pence, you're cheering for Pence to replace Trump. If so, no problem — I hear people say "first things first" all the time. But it would be good to admit that this is what we'll get if Mueller gives Pence a pass while taking everyone else to the cleaners.

GP